Nine of the last 14 derby winners have had one of my common denominator factors in their pedigree. I have found over the years that there are certain characteristics in the pedigrees of derby winners that seem to dominate.Since 65% of derby winners of the last 14 years qualify on these factors I feel I have a better than even chance of having the derby winner on my list of contenders.

   Because there are usually 400 or more nominated to the derby it's a difficult chore to go through their pedigrees and attempt to rate them. Also, a pedigree isn't worth much if the horse doesn't show some talent in its races so during the season I try to narrow the field by a combination of performance and pedigree. I usually nail some big priced winners along the way because of their pedigree potential and the fact that they haven't yet lived up to that potential. For instance; if you go through my blogs you will see that I had Watch Me Go as a serious contender in one of the early races and he won at over 40/1. I also picked Archarcharch 2 times at 15/1. I had Animal Kingdom as one of my top choices for the derby and made a bet with Arch and Animal Kingdom on top and you know AK won @ 20/1.

This year should produce a lot more interesting races than last year because there are a lot more quality speed horses this year. Last year we had Shackleford and that was about it. He never really got challenged on the front end by any front runners other than sprinters. We should see a lot of pace in the coming races which will make for better racing.

I am giving a partial list of my contenders now and will be adjusting the list as the season progresses.

Listed in alphabetical order:

Alpha
Currency Swap
Done Talking
Dullahan
El Padrino
Empire Way
Exfactor
Gemologist
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Managed Account
Motor City
Parish Hall
Power
Power World
Seve
Speightscity
Souper Speedy
Union Rags
   Some of these have virtually eliminated themselves already but it's a little early to toss them until they have had a chance over a distance of ground. There are a few that I like a lot more than the rest, and one in particular, that I think is much better than all of them. Just have to take it race by race to what develops as some late starters enter the picture. There are probably some nicely bred horses I haven't seen yet.

   This year I will not be blogging my pedigree analysis and race selections. I will be sending the information in a weekly newsletter that is being developed. If you are interested in subscribing to my newsletter which will also contain articles on "Out of the Box" handicapping, please inquire by e-mail.
backstretch33@gmail.com

Backstretch  

Time Out

   Due to health issues I haven't been posting. I plan to do a lot of work on the Triple Crown Trail after the new year begins.
   I have a newsletter in the works where I will discuss pedigrees and a lot of handicapping stuff. As many of you know, I am an "Out of the Box" long shot handicapper and will give some of my opinions on conventional handicapping and it's pitfalls.

   Til next year;

MERRY CHRISTMAS

and

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Backstretch

Remsen and Jockey Club Recap

   Sometimes handicappers think that the pace of a race is slow but we don't really know how hard the horses were really running. The fractions in the Remsen would lead one to believe they were going slow up front but the way the race unfolded might say otherwise. Super Speedy was pressed all the way by Our Entourage into deep stretch. A couple others, especially Speightscity who has good speed, couldn't keep up, which might mean they weren't really going as slow as we might think.
   I have been hoping we might see some speed horses this year that can carry their speed a long way unlike last year when the only front runner that stayed healthy was Shackelford.
   In the case of the Remsen, we are left with 2 possibilities, either the pace was slow or it wasn't. If it wasn't there is the chance that Super Speedy is a good one. This was only his second race and has lots of room to improve on that big jump in distance. He has a beautiful pedigree that should carry him at the longer distances.
   On the other hand, if he was really going that slow, I am impressed by Done Talking who came a long, long way to only get beaten by a length. The winner had a perfect stalking trip and took advantage of Souper Speedy having to finally put Our Entourage away in the stretch. The connections of O'prado Again feel they have a derby horse, which he might be, but I like their other horse Dullahan better for the derby distance.

As for the Jockey Club race, Gemologist can't be faulted because he is undefeated. He has good speed and showed he can also sit back a little and pounce. My problem with him is that Pletcher always has his horses ready early but he usually manages to squeeze the lemon dry by derby time. They are planning to take the same route as they did with Super Saver. I think Pletcher was actually surprised when Super Saver won the derby so I don't put too much stock in his plans. I also don't think Gemologist is bred for the Derby or Belmont distance. Of course that's just my opinion. Ever So Lucky was going to try to wire the field and almost pulled it off but he's another that I don't think can get 1 1/4 miles. He did run a little too quick early and hung in but I think distance will be a factor with him. Timely Tally closed a ton and it's the second time he's been close to Geologist so might be better down the line. Timely Tally is ridden by Borel and he also has the mount on another good closer in Motor City and both are bred to get the distance. I wonder who he likes better?
   As to looking for the speed horse of the year I am impressed with Hansen. I really think if the track wasn't biased in the Breeders Cup he may have won by 10 or more. His breeding also tells me he can run all day but we have got to see what happens when a few of the speedsters meet.

   Now we have got to wait and see what happens this winter down in Fl at GP and Tampa. Don't forget, a lot of  Derby contenders don't break their maiden till this time of year. Should be interesting.

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Remsen and KY Jockey Club

   It looks to me that this years road to the Triple Crown should get very interesting. I think this years crop has a lot more horses with classical breeding than last year. As you know, after the mishandling of Uncle Mo, last years races were mostly won by different horses and nobody showed they were superior to the rest. There were a few good ones along the way but it seems most of them succumbed to injury before they were able to accomplish very much.
   Last years Remsen only had 5 entries but this year there are 10 and most of them are very nicely bred and have been showing some talent already. This should be a very contentious race and judging from the pedigrees, I don't think many of them can be written off yet even in defeat.
   The jockey Club doesn't look as competitive as the Remsen but a couple of nice ones could emerge from it.

Remsen: In order of my pedigree preference..

Souper Speedy....... surprised @ 30/1 in debut in mud...super pedigree but has to prove more.

Speightscity.........fantastic pedigree...has gone a distance ...chased Hansen on tiring track

Stephanoatsee.....inbred to great derby winning line...great trainer

Done Talking........bred to get the distance...is getting a nice foundation..

El Padrino............great pedigree...blew them away in first try at a mile..

Managed Account...another with a nice pedigree...looks to be improving

   All the entries are nicely bred but right now some are more advanced than others..as we go into next year and the TC preps they will start to weed themselves out. I feel that this may be a very important race because of the abundance of top notch breeding and the talent already shown..Don't be too surprised to see some big prices on the board

Jockey Club; some nice ones in here but not nearly as good as in the Remsen.

Cyber Secret....could be a real good one

Gemologist.......2 for 2 so far...Pletcher usually has them ready early.

Timely Tally.....another from a great derby winning line.

Seve.............still a maiden and must show something on dirt but has a really nice pedigree.

Ever So Lucky...may be real good til the derby distance comes up.

Right now we will just have to let them weed themselves out...it takes talent and a pedigree...I like to see both because some have talent but can't get the classic distances and some are bred right but can't run to their pedigrees..I hope to see some this year that are really talented and have a classic pedigree...what we need is a few that can run up front and sustain their speed...last year all we had was Shackleford and he was not bred for the classics.

Delta Jackpot

   The Delta Jackpot could be called a "Win and Your In" prep for the KY Derby. With a purse of one million dollars the winner is virtually assured of a spot in the KY Derby. Makes one wonder why more high profile horses aren't entered. I would think that winning this race would give the connections an awful lot of options as to what races to enter and how often to race. I suppose the winner could just sit on the sidelines til the big dance.
   The field looks to be competitive enough but I don't see any of these as a serious derby contender. I see a few decent pedigrees but nothing that excites me at all.
   Drill looks to have run against better fields than the rest but threw a real clunker last time although he did have some trouble at the start. I would have liked to see him at least get involved in the race so, even though he may bounce right back, I'm going against him.
   As many readers know, I use pedigrees as my main handicapping tool in these races for young horses so that's how I will judge this race.

1- My Adonis.....
2- Drill
3- Sabercat
4- Tiz Moe

   I won't be putting any of these pedigrees on my derby watch list because I don't think any of them are bred for classic distances.

Backstretch Bits and Pieces

   I get random thoughts all the time so I thought it time to record some of them.

   Uncle Mo: I almost never agree with Andy Beyer, mostly because I believe his figures are a bunch of crap, but on Uncle Mo we are one. The terrible job that was done on that horse is a crying shame. Probably the biggest reason he was handled so badly was the desire to have him remain undefeated. Dodging the competition and trying to pick easy spots was what came back to bite Repole and Pletcher in the ass. Had they actually raced UM into condition he probably wouldn't have been beaten. I believe he had the pedigree to handle the distance and I don't buy that liver disease bull. One thing I do believe is that Pletcher, considering the horses he gets, is not much of a trainer and is piss poor at prepping a horse for the long distance races. JMO

   I got into another rhubarb on THAT website because I had the nerve to suggest that there may have been a track bias for the BC. I thought that because so many horses that won had come from off the pace in the middle of the track there may have been something to favor closers. Even though I have since read numerous columns and opinions agreeing with my assessment, I guess everyone that agrees there was a bias is wrong. Why? Because Christ Jesus says so! Case closed!

   How much is a length worth in terms of odds? I haven't really kept a record of how often this happens but I can recall some just from memory. I had noticed that in 2007 Street Sense had been beaten by Circular Quay by a nose in his previous race, yet CQ went off as the favorite and SS won at 15/1. This year there were a couple that I noticed like Musical Romance who actually beat Switch last time. Switch went off as the 3/1 second choice and Musical Romance won @ 20/1. Then we have the classic where Flat Out, who had beaten Drosselmeyer by 2 lengths, is sent off as the favorite and is out of the money while Drossel wins @ 15/1. In the JGC, which was run in the mud, Drosselmeyer was the only horse gaining on Flat Out. Factor in that in most of the previous races closing horses were winning, and we know that distance is no problem for Drossel, how could he be ignored in the betting? The icing on the cake was that Mike Smith, who I consider to be the best come from behind jock in the country, had ridden the horse once and won the Belmont with him. Many reasons to bet Drossel and yet he's ignored. So, next year, keep in mind that horses like these can be totally ignored by the public.

   I noticed that a few stallions had their stud fees increased dramatically for next year. I wonder how these stallions would have done if they didn't have their pick of broodmares. I believe that there are many stallions that would produce good ones if they were able to cover some better mares. That's why the owners of the high priced studs retain the right to reject mares they don't like. They really wouldn't like it known that without the right mares their champs may sire nothing noteworthy.

   Do you actually think that horses are as erratic as the Beyer's make them out to be?

   Next post; Delta Jackpot or is it "Win and Your In"?

Breeders Cup 2 yr old Recap

   Although my pedigree horses did very well I wasn't overly impressed. Stephanie's Kitten looks to have more potential and should continue her winning ways. Northern Passion was ambitiously placed and should have stayed on the turf where I think she will have some success.
   My Miss Aurelia seems to be a notch above at this point in time but time must be given to others in order to mature.
   My main focus now will be to follow the colts as they sort each other out heading for the Triple Crown. There will be something like 400 horses nominated to the KY Derby and a lot of them haven't even started yet. Of course I like to see them get some racing under their belt so as to build a foundation. We all saw what happens when a horse like Uncle Mo is babied and lacks experience and a sound racing foundation. And let's not get overly impressed with horses like Hansen and Union Rags because there has been only one horse that won the BC and went on to win the KY Derby and that was Street Sense.
   The colt that has impressed me the most is Dullahan. In the BC he was bumped at the start and left about 15 lengths behind. He made a strong move very late and passed 5 horses in the stretch while only beaten 6 lengths. Has a strong pedigree for the classic distances and I feel sure will do better as he is stretched out. Hansen and Union Rags are very nice colts with good pedigrees but I'm not convinced they can get the Derby distance. Hansen does have an edge because of his speed and if you recall this past year there were no real quality colts with speed besides Shackleford and he was not bred for the longer distances.
   I also think there's a lot of upside for Speightscity. He has a really nice pedigree and actually ran well in the BC by chasing Hansen to the stretch. If he learns to rate a little off the pace and matures more he may be one to deal with in the future.
   There were a few excellent pedigrees that didn't show up for the BC. I really like a few foreign ones like Red Duke, Parish Hall and Power. And speaking of power, another US horse I really like is Power World.
   I'm not sure why some of these didn't show up but I will try to keep tabs on them in the future. There are a lot who have only made a start or two and some who will be making a final start by the years end. It should be an interesting winter in FL and the other southern states as the race to the crown starts taking shape.
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Breeders Cup 2 yr old pedigrees

Already this year, of the short list of pedigrees I posted on my blog, these are the stakes winners since I posted them.

My Miss Aurelia.......Frizette
Northern Passion.....Natalma
Stephanies Kitten....Alcibides
Finale.....................Summer
Union Rags.............Champagn
Dullahan.................Breeders Fut.
Motor City..............Iroquois

Here are some pedigrees I like in the BC 2 yr old races. Keep in mind that I am picking pedigrees that I think will handle the classic distances down the road. There are many more really nice pedigrees this year than last year so I'm only posting the ones I like best. There are some that are good but not really great and will make their presence felt because of having good form.
 In alphabetical order;

Fillie Turf:

Elusive Kate
Hard Not To Like
My Gi Gi
Pure Gossip
Stephanie's Kitten
Somali Lemonade
Sweet Cat

Fillie Dirt

Grace Hall
Homecoming Queen
My Miss Aurelia
Northern Passion
Questing
Self Preservation

Colts Turf:

Animal Spirits
Caspar Netscher
Farraaj
Finale
Shkspeare Shaliyah
State Of Play

Colts Dirt:

Alpha
Daddy Long Legs
Drill
Dullahan
Fort Loudon
Hansen
Speightscity
Union Rags
Those are the pedigrees I like best although there are some that would be good if not up against these.
My selections for the Breeders Cup are not available here.

Breeders Cup

   I had hoped to get my pedigrees done before now but due to my handicapping work for my clients I'm running behind schedule.
   I should have my pedigree contenders posted here by Thurs. 11/3/11. Thanks for your patience.

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Breeders Cup 2 yr old Pedigrees

   This is the time of year I like to study pedigrees. I'm only interested in the 2 yr olds because the older horses were looked at in previous years and what they can do has been pretty well established by now. I do take pedigree into consideration with the older horses when I find them to be closely matched, especially the 3 yr olds.
   There seems to be a lot more nicely bred babies this year than last and more importantly, some with excellent pedigrees that have a lot of speed. I think that one of the principal reasons for all the different winners on the TC trail was the lack of any quality horses with high speed. Shack was the only one that could carry his speed a distance but he ran out of pedigree at the longer distance despite the fact he had no competition early. I think we will see a different story this year.
   When I handicap pedigrees I am looking for the horses I think will be able to handle the classic distances so what they do now and leading up to the classics will be determined by how fast they mature. The precocious ones usually do the early winning but, if lacking the right pedigree for the longer distances, will soon be overcome by the well bred late bloomers.
   The reason I do pedigree handicapping is that many time horses with great potential are overlooked in the betting and some great prices can be had. In a previous post I had noted, and was confirmed by a reader, that most of the stakes on the TC trail were won by one of my pedigree horses. Some of these were at big odds like Watch Me Go @40/1, Archarcharch @ 15/1 twice, Animal Kingdom @ 20/1, etc.
   I may list 4-5 horses for a race and if any go off real long I will usually go with the long ones in addition to the more formful ones. For some reason there seems to be a lot more bred for the classics this year than last, especially in the turf races.
   I'm not looking at the sprint races because it doesn't take classic breeding to win those races. Sprints are usually won by horses who are athletes with a high turn of speed.
   As of the moment I don't know who is going to run where as there are quite a few cross entered. It may be that the connections haven't yet decided what distance or surface their horse fits best or it may be that some horses are dodging others. I have a feeling that there are a few that prefer not to go up against Union Rags right now. Last year it seemed that all year long everyone was playing "Dodge The Bullet", especially Pletcher. Right now I will just have to go with the probable starters but I may add or delete some by race day.
   Starting with the JUV. Fillies Turf, here are my early pedigree picks in alphabetic order; This is not taking their current form into consideration, only their breeding.

Bourbonstreetgirl.......
Elusive Kate..............
My Gi Gi...................
Northern Passion.......
Pure Gossip...............
Somali Lemonade......
Stephanie's Kitten......
Sweet Cat.................
   Some of these have not shown their best yet and may not until later in the year. The really cool thing is to anticipate when a big race is about to pop and get on board at big odds.
   There is a small percentage of horses that have what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree. These are pedigrees that have so many different horses in them that it's extremely difficult to decide which are going to dominate. As I said, this is not an exact science.
   My next post will take up another BC baby race.

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Mine That Bird, a Fluke?

   When Mine That Bird won the KY Derby almost everyone thought it was some kind of fluke. I however, didn't really think so. There were 6 horses in that derby that I had on my pedigree list and of the first 6 to cross the finish line, 5 were my pedigree horses, including MTB.
   You may be wondering why I mention this at this time but I just want to point out how it's relevant now. In my previous post I had listed 5 horses that I liked their pedigree for the BC Fut. at KEE. One of these was a maiden named Dullahan who is a 1/2 brother to MTB. Actually, the way I look at pedigrees makes him closer to being a full brother. I guess you know that Dullahan won @17/1 and beat a pretty deep field. He caught the chalk who is a horse that I feel certainly has distance limitations.
   Judging from his breeding I think Dullahan will again be heard from, especially as the distances get longer on the Triple Crown Trail. I'm not stating that he's about to win the derby but I think he may be a contender along the way.
   His performance, IMO, validates just how good MTB was. Don't forget, he was the 2 yr old champ of Canada before he won the Derby and was 2nd and 3rd in the Preakness and Belmont. Doesn't sound like a fluke to me.
   This is the beauty of knowing how to judge the classical qualities of young horses by their pedigree. You never know what kind of odds you might get with horses that are really bred to go the distance of the classic races and have been getting beat in the shorter races where all it takes is sharp form to win.
   I'm looking forward to the TC races this winter and spring because it's a lot of fun to follow and also might be very profitable.
Next up, the Breeders Cup.
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Breeders Cup Prep Races ...Sat. 10/8/11

   First, a few words about 2 year old horses. One must acknowledge that some horses are much more precocious than others, that is, they mature much faster. In addition, many are earlier foals than others, sometimes as much as 5-6 months. This means that a lot of them have a head start and will do most of the winning of the early races. Many will only have a start or two before their 3 yr old season and have to catch up but they usually make their presence felt in the spring. This is the most likely reason there has been only one BC Juvy winner that has won the KY Derby.
   My aim is to try to pick the pedigrees that will be able to handle the classic distances of the Triple Crown races. Since these early races are just over a mile it doesn't take classic breeding to win these races but the better bred horses usually win more than their fair share of the early ones.
   I don't know if this is an exceptional year for well bred horses or last year was a bad crop but already, and I've just begun, I have found an abundance of nicely bred colts and fillies. Last year in the BC there were only a few that were really nice. Also, it seems like every year there are some classical bred horses from overseas but they don't have much luck here on the dirt. I attribute it to the different training methods over there. They run on the grass and are trained to go slow early and finish fast and that doesn't work in our dirt races where the pace is usually much faster. I don't hesitate to bet foreign horses on the grass but am very leery on dirt.
   Now, on to the races and I'll start with the Champagn at BEL:

There are 4 in here that I really like their pedigrees but this is not to say the others are not nicely bred. I have to draw the line somewhere so, even though none can be eliminated completely according to breeding, I have come down to 4 in this race. Keep in mind that most are stretching out to a mile for the first time and a few of the early stakes were run on sloppy tracks. Slop usually favors speed and some horses really hate slop so there could be some surprises.
   These are my top 4 in no particular order and I will try for an upset and will probably make some exotic boxes.

Power World.......really like this pedigree...hope he can run to it...should be better at the longer distances.

Speightscity........another nice one...has already won over a mile.

Alpha..............should relish more ground

Union Rags....off to a great start with 2 for 2

Frizette at BEL;

Spare Change
Stopshoppingmaria
My Miss Aurelia
Holiday Soiree

Dixiana Breeders Fut. at KEE;

As far as pedigrees, this is a much deeper race than the Champagne at BEL. There are an awful lot of really good pedigrees and it will take awhile for these to sort themselves out during the coming months. Right now I'll just list the ones that appeal to me. The future of a lot of these will probably be on the grass and since this is on the Poly we don't know which race they will go for in the BC.

Motor City
Shared Property
Dullahan
Our Entourage
Space Race
There are about 4 others that could be just as good...very good field

The Germans Are Coming

   Back on May 11 I posted a blog titled "Out Of The Box Breeding" in which I discussed the pedigree of Animal Kingdom. I especially wanted to point out something that I rarely hear about in horse breeding and that is Hy-bred Vigor. Hy-bred Vigor is something that is obtained by the introduction of new blood into an inbred family.
   All I read about is the merits of this or that sire and it seems that every year or so a new sire is in fashion. I am always reminding people that most of the time the sire doesn't carry much weight in a pedigree but his family lines do. If one looks at the pedigrees of the 2 yr olds of each season it will be found that a huge percentage of these horses are all closely related. Virtually all of the really good horses of the last 30 yrs or so are of the Northern Dancer and Raise A Native bloodlines. But what do we really have here?
    Native Dancer is the sire of Raise A Native who is the sire of Mr Prospector. Native Dancer is the son of Phalaris who is also the g. sire of Nearco who is the g sire of Northern Dancer. So you see, they are all related and most of our top horses today are really inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector.
   Any species, in order to develop the most desired traits, ends up being inbred because of selective breeding programs. This process eventually results in a deterioration of the breed, which in this case, means a weakening of the stamina and bone structure resulting in more break downs and diminishing stamina. This is about where we stand now.
   In order to reverse this trend there must be new blood introduced into the inbred family. I have seen some of this happening in the case of Animal Kingdom and now with Danedream. By the crossing of the Northern Dancer line with the German horses a much stronger horse is being produced. About 15-16 winners in a row of the Arc can be traced back to Nearco and now a filly wins the Arc in record time as a result of the introduction of the German line into the Phalaris family.
   I really believe that our next Triple Crown winner will be the result of an out cross with a horse such as Big Brown who I think is the best I've seen since Secretariat. BB is inbred to Nearco and is a horse that had high speed and could sustain it over any distance. In my opinion, an out cross with him may produce a durable horse with plenty of stamina and a high cruising speed. In fact, I predicted 2 yrs ago that Big Brown would sire the next TC winner and I stand by that.
Backstretch

PS- My next blog will be about this weeks 2 yr old preps for the Breeders Cup.

Pennsylvania Derby

   This looks to be an interesting race. I don't know what the plans might be for whoever wins but it's possible they would try the BC Classic.
   If you recall, after the AK Derby I told my readers to keep an eye out for J W Blue as he would be heard from down the line. I really like his breeding but either he was brought along slowly or he's a late bloomer. I would have liked to seen him in the JGC as I think he's more suited for the longer distances. He may be at a disadvantage in this race since he comes from far off the pace. If he should win this race I would really like to see him in the BC. Another who's pedigree I like is Rattlesnake Bridge. His sire is a son of Pulpit as is J W Blue's but I happen to like Blue's dam better. The snake is another who likes to come from off the pace. He beat Blue in the Travers but Blue was the only one gaining on Thirsty that day. That brings me to my other pedigree horse in here, To Honor And Serve. THAS has a ton of speed and if Dutrow decides, as he's hinted, to scratch Rush Now, that would leave THAS as the lone speed. If that happens then he could set his own pace and be mighty hard to catch unless he's not really back to his old self. I'm wondering what the circumstances are that has JR riding the Snake rather than THAS.
   At any rate here's how I rate them by pedigree:

If Rush Now is scratched;
To Honor And To Serve
J W Blue
Rattlesnake Bridge
Ruler On Ice

If Rush Now runs;
J W Blue
Rattlesnake Bridge
To Honor And Serve
Ruler On Ice

Ruler could be much closer as he does have a little speed on occasion but I'm handicapping by my pedigree likes and although he doesn't have a bad pedigree I much prefer the other three.
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Natalma and Summer Stakes

   I was really impressed with Northern Passion. Right now I would favor her in the Breeders Cup. Shes bred to run all day and I think she will get better as the distance gets longer. I think the fillies looked better as a group than the colts.
   Dayatthespa ran a nice race and might do well at the longer distances if rated off the pace more. I will say, she got beat by a really good one today so she looks to have a bright future also.
   I wasn't that impressed with the colts. Finale was all out to beat Excaper who is a nicely bred colt but I think he has some distance limitations. Excaper will, in my opinion, have trouble getting much over a mile. I think Daddy Nose Best is going to be a little slow coming into his own but has a lot of potential.
   I want to congratulate my friend who's a partner in Dayatthespa. I won't mention his name right now because I don't know if he would appreciate it. I hope they have a lot of success with her.
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A few 2 yr old Turf pedigrees

Here are a few that I like that are running today at WO.

Fillies;
Hard Not To Like
Northern Passion
Stephanie's Kitten
Evil Kitten

Colts;
Finale
Burn The Mortgage
Daddy Nose Best
Maritimer
Excaper

I'm planning an update on all my 2 yr old pedigrees before the BC.

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INTENT

Definition of INTENT

1

a : the act or fact of intending : purpose; especially : the design or purpose to commit a wrongful or criminal act <admitted wounding him with intent> b : the state of mind with which an act is done : volition

2

: a usually clearly formulated or planned intention : aim <the director's intent>

   You may wonder what this has to do with horse racing; everything! You may handicap a race and decide that horse A is better than Horse B but if horse A's trainer does not intend to try today it doesn't matter how good the horse might be.
   In this post I am going to try to explain how I go about deciding to bet or not to bet. Many years ago I asked an old timer, who was an expert handicapper if he could have one question answered, regarding a race in question, what would it be? Without hesitation, he said, "Who's going to run good today?. I never forgot that and although I spent a lot of years with speed and pace handicapping, I found that well meant horses were the best path to winning long term. My signature statement is, "People Run Horse Racing, Horses Just Run!".

   When asking what a trainers intentions are today a lot depends on the type of race being considered. If it's a stakes race with a big purse one must assume the trainer wants to win for several reasons. First of all, the owners of high class horses are normally only interested in winning a big race. They may or may not place a bet but I don't think many do for the simple reason that they don't need the money. They like the prestige that comes with winning big races and owning a champion. The more big races a trainer wins the more likely he is to get the better future prospects along with higher fees. So, if we assume that virtually all the entries in high class races want to win, the logical move is to then try to decide who is going to win. In most cases of this sort we are basically reduced to a guessing game unless of course you are willing to back favorites most of the time. The high class horses are, for the most part, trained into condition, which is a very tricky process. I reserve these type races for my fun bets. Oddly enough, I do quite well with these bets, especially with the 3 yr olds on the Triple Crown Trail. The reason I do well is I handicap by pedigree and many times this points to horses that have a lot of potential that hasn't been realized as yet.

   Most of us that are regular bettors trying to turn a profit are betting on claiming races which are the bread and butter of racing. There are all types of claiming horses which include those that are just a few notches below the very best and those that make up the lower rungs of the ladder. The latter are my bread and butter! I don't play allowance races, maiden special weights 2 yr olds, or turf races. My reasoning is that in allowance races there may be some top of the line horses in it that are tuning up for something bigger and better. It is done but is risky business for a trainer to try to engineer a betting coup when there may be horses of much better caliber in the race. The same reasoning applies to the maiden special weights. The 2 yr old races usually have a bunch of first time starters and a lot of others that can improve tremendously from race to race so they are out, too many unknowable factors. I don't play turf races because too many trainers use the turf to condition dirt horses. I have also seen hundreds of sharp, cheap claimers coming off the dirt that have never or seldom run on the grass jump up and beat much higher class horses on the grass. Trying to guess who is out to win and who is in there for conditioning purposes is a losing game. I also eliminate starter allowances and handicap races because this is another type race where there may be a very classy horse that just happens to meet the conditions or, because they can't be claimed, horses that are only in the race for the exercise.  I therefore restrict my play to straight claiming races on the dirt and there are more than enough of those to keep anyone in action.

   Trainers attempting to set up a betting coup will use many different moves to get the horse in winning condition while at the same time hiding the horse's form so as to deceive bettors into thinking the horse is a dud. There can be a series or combinations of class, distance, surface, running style and jockey switches to accomplish this. Betting stables and trainers will do all they can to get higher odds on their horse when it is sent to win. By these different patterns, if one is attuned to them, is how the trainers INTENT can be deciphered. Some trainers, as in all other professions, are much better than others, and in fact, some are downright lousy at what they do. Even in the claiming ranks there are what's known today as "Super Trainers". These are trainers that, although dealing with claiming horses, have a very high win percentage. There are a couple of these at most tracks and I try to avoid races where they have an entry unless my choice is very good odds, but even then I am very wary. These trainers normally have a lot of horses from some well heeled owners and their primary interest is also in winning as many races as possible. This type trainer earns his money from per Diem fees and his percentage of winning purses and is reluctant to place a bet with his own money.

   My basic strategy is to scan, with my eyes, as I don't use computer programs, the claiming races at most tracks running and try to spot horses that I think are well intended. It only takes me about 30 seconds or less to scan a race because I have embedded in my mind different patterns of running lines, class moves, etc. Once I spot what I think is a well intended horse I then proceed to evaluate other factors such as his placement as regards class, distance, jockey and so on. I may then go the the result charts and the replay of the horse's last few races. I am trying now to decide if the trainer's intent was to purposely make the horse look bad or if the horse has been trying and just doesn't have what it takes to win. Sometimes I'm right and often times wrong in my assessment but when right the odds usually make up for the wrongs. Remember, we have got to beat the prices regardless of the win percentage

   I would actually have to write a book to describe, step by step, the entire process of how to determine the trainers intent and of course, once this was made public, it would soon become worthless. I can however give you a few hints to describe when a trainers intent is usually not to win but to condition the horse. For example; a horse that's a proven router, unless it has displayed speed in a sprint or has won at a shorter distance, is entered in a sprint off a layoff you can deduce it's prepping for a longer race. Another is a horse that returns from a layoff with a bang-up race and is jumped in class in it's next race. Most horses that run a hard race off a layoff need a couple of races to recuperate. Many trainers will drop this type in class in it's next start with the best of intentions but I've found these to be very bad bets on two counts. One is that the horse will usually go off at short odds and the other is the trainer is hoping, even though he knows the horse will probably bounce, that the drop in class will compensate for the expected regression in the horse's form. The trainer that jumps this type in class knows the race took a lot out of the horse and will run it in higher class til it regains it's form.

   Another point when considering the intent of the trainer is that I find that most trainers are either impatient or tend to overestimate the condition of the horse. They will shoot with the horse too soon mostly because they have a preconceived plan. The plan may be to bring a horse off a layoff and give it one race and drop it in it's next race with intent to win. You can see many of this type every day but too many times the trainer over estimates the horse's condition and it comes up short, where as, had he given the horse one more easy race, the horse would probably have won.

   When we decide the trainers intent is to win we can use another factor to determine if we are correct in our assessment and that is the odds board. The biggest majority of well intended horses will get action at the windows. In this case one must be careful to note whether the horse deserves to be bet or not. If the horse shows good form and class ability, comes from a top stable with a live jock up, we would expect it to get bet. It's the ones that have some hidden form and what looks like other detrimental facts that garner action that are the live stable horses. If this applies to the horse we are considering it then becomes another positive factor as to the trainers intentions. There are exceptions to this however. I have a couple of friends that have very sophisticated programs to analyze the betting action on races. They have informed me that in this day and age of exotic betting there are lots of cases where the connections do NOT bet the horse to win but bet it in the exotics. They try to hide the money so as not to give their plans away. You have probably asked your self many times how an exacta or double could pay so little when a long shot wins the race. Hidden money is the reason! The reason I mention this is that it is sometimes easy to pass up a big long shot because it seems like no money shows up on it.

   In conclusion, the intent is of utmost importance in handicapping. It can point one to winners and also help to eliminate losers. It takes a lot of practice and experience but it can be learned if one takes an out-of-the-box approach. Look for moves they don't seem to make sense and try to figure why it's being made. There are many clues to a trainers intent but if you fail to recognize what is going on your going to back a lot of horses that are not even giving a try.

   This is not an inducement to subscribe to my selection service but I would like to mention that many of my clients have told me that it is worth the price just to get my selections to see how to apply the handicapping factors I endorse. The only other way I could teach my methods would be in a one on one class room setting. Writing a book is out for obvious reasons.
I will be blogging some more important stuff in the near future so stay tuned.
Backstretch

Promising 2 yr old Pedigrees

Adding a couple for today that are going in the Del Mar Fut.

Creative Cause
Currency Swap
Drill
Exfactor
Hunt Crossing
Power World
Red Duke
Sheer Talent
Union Rags

Horses going today; Creative Cause, Drill, Sheer Talent

Forums

   In a previous blog I had criticized a particular forum as being very hostile for which I caught a lot of flak from the powers that be. It was said that I had unleashed an undeserved attack upon them.
   I decided to try a little experiment and posted, what I, and according to my e-mails, and others thought was a very innocuous post. The very first thing that happened was that one member, who, judging by his avatar and screen name, fancies himself as some sort of philosopher, immediately accuses me of promoting my services. The thread quickly degenerates into the normal rhubarb and the data and mathematical equations are brought into the mix. Then my blog about the site was brought up and a lot of criticism concerning my handicapping abilities, none of which, had a damned thing to do with my initial post.
   You see, what I had done was to suggest that there were people who were successful bettors, who, although not "Professional Handicappers", make some very lucrative bets. This did not sit very well with them and they basically ridiculed me for suggesting this could be done by those who were not "Pros" and didn't understand that they had to be long term losers. The fact that these bettors only bet on the big race days during the course of the year and happen to make some nice scores without running back the next day to give the money back was lost on them.
   At any rate, I'm kind of tired of the BS and don't wish to waste any more of my time with this. The point I was making, which they proved by their reaction to the post, was that the site is, I won't say totally because I heard from members who don't adhere to those tactics, hostile. As I said in my original blog, if one doesn't conform to their mathematical aspects of the game, that person is to be ridiculed and scorned. As after my first blog, I will now be accused of another attack upon them. Their argument is that I "Rail" against their theories and demean them when I discount many of their methods. There is a way around all this however; all one has to do is become a paid advertiser. Shell out your $400. a month and you become a member of the clique.
   Another point is that for all their expertise, and this was just alluded to by the resident philosopher, no one actually teaches anything there and if they try they are laughed off the board. I had been on another website for some years and did a lot of writing about racing and handicapping. I acquired a lot of friends who still contact me often and thank me for the know- how that I offered to them. I have e-mails form all over the world asking me questions which I gladly answer.
   I am approaching 80 yrs of age and had always thought about giving something back to the game I spent the better part of my life learning. There are those who welcome the advice of some one who has "Been There, Done That" and then there are those who think they know it all and reject anything that goes against their prevailing thoughts.
    So, stayed tuned because I am going to write some posts here, and only here, concerning LOGIC in handicapping. I may only write a post a week about it because I am quite busy with my pedigree work. Even if you don't agree with my blogs I think you will find my articles concerning intent, the errors of track variants and other tidbits interesting.
Backstretch

Promising 2 year old Pedigrees 2011

   It's about that time of year to start giving a look at the 2 yr olds heading for the Breeder's Cup Juvy race. I really am only interested in pedigrees that suggest to me that the horse can get the classic distances of the Triple Crown.
   Since there are usually over 400 nominated to the KY Derby it would be an enormous job to look at all of them. There are many that fall by the wayside, some sooner than others, and many that don't even make it to the races. Naturally, a pedigree doesn't mean a thing if not coupled with talent. I go on basically a race by race process to weed them out as the season progresses.
   This early in the year a lot of the baby races will be won by the precocious ones who usually fade as the late bloomers mature. What may be a world beater now may not be much by the time spring rolls around. The ones with the classic breeding that show ability are put on my list to follow through the season.
   Tomorrow is the Hopeful Stakes which is the first grade one of the year. There are some very fast youngsters in the race and 70% of them have won their last race. They are all stretching out in distance and that will seperate them some. Most of the ones that run well will probably get another race under their belt before the BC in Nov.
   Right now I have a very short list of the pedigrees that I favor. I will be adding to the list as time goes by.

Listed in alphabetical order:

Creative Cause
Currency Swap
Exfactor
Hunt Crossing
Power World
Red Duke
Union Rags

As more are added to the list I will start comparing them to each other and try to narrow things down. Of course there are usually some well bred ones that get started late and make their presence felt down the road.

PS- I will bet a few ex in the Hopeful and hopefully nail something....2,4/1,2,4,9

Backstretch

Travers Stakes

   So far it seems like no horse can put two big races back to back. I had been high on Stay thirsty since way back and he finally showed what he can do. The question is, can he do it again? He has a classic pedigree and should have no problem with the distance.
   I was also impressed with J W Blue's breeding and after the AK Derby in which he had a bad post and wide, rough trip, I had posted that you would hear from him down the line. He's lost two tight finishes in a row but I think he will really like the added distance. Will be closing and if he doesn't run into trouble I expect him to be there at the finish.
   Coil doesn't seem to have a really classic pedigree but it looks good enough to put him up there. He actually has speed but has shown he can come off the pace.
   I don't think Thirsty or Coil and maybe someone else is going to let Shack get away with backing the pace down. He may last for a part if he can hold off Ruler but doesn't have the breeding for this distance.
   Ruler On Ice is very steady and usually throws a good race. Breeding is so-so.
   Raison D'etat is nicely bred and can probably handle the distance. Rattlesnake Bridge is another with a lot of points in his pedigree and should get the extra distance.

Going mostly on pedigree this is how I see it; I am revising my first thoughts.

Stay Thirsty........will probably stalk Shack and be in good position in stretch...only one with big win this year
Coil....................will lay off the pace but not as far back as last time
J W Blue............makes a big run ala Dialed In and Animal Kingdom...could win if pace is fast
Shackleford........may be forced to set pace again but must back it down in order to last
Raison D'etat......shouldn't be far off the pace
Rattlesnake Bridge...could move up more with an off track
Ruler On Ice.......needs to stay close


If the track comes up sloppy I will make a change to:
Stay Thirsty
Coil
Shackleford
J W Blue
Rattlesnake Bridge
Raison D'etat
Really a tough race and it all hinges on whether Thirsty shows up with his game suit on.

Backstretch

Haskell & Jim Dandy Recap

   It has dawned on me that the reason this years 3 yr old crop has been so bad is that there are no quality front runners. Early on we had Uncle Mo until whatever happened to him happened. Then there was The Factor who was extremely fast but it was decided he was distance challenged. There may have been a few who, when the lone speed, could hang in but none of any real quality.
   Shackleford just happened to be the best of a bad lot of speed horses. He has actually only held on to win one graded race and if Animal Kingdom hadn't had such a bad start Shack would have NO graded wins. This is a horse that was the front runner for 3 yr old of the year. Once again he gets caught by a horse coming from way out of it.
   So what do these 2 races tell me?
   Stay Thirsty has finally shown what he can do and this was the first graded win of the year won by open lengths and from a horse that didn't lay way back early. He is bred to run long and, if he moves forward off this race, will be mighty tough to beat in the Travers.
   Coil is also bred to run all day and having had a bad start in the Haskell, he does have a ton of speed and should be able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. He has a lot of upside and could very well win the Travers.
   I don't think Shackleford will go to the Travers for two reasons. The first is that I don't think he can handle 1 1/4 against the two mentioned above. The only way he can get that distance is if he's loose on the lead and can slow the pace way down.
   The other reason is that if the connections want the 3 yr old title they don't want to take a chance against Coil again and also the distinct possibility of Thirsty winning. If Shack were in there and Thirsty beats Coil who has beaten Shack, the 3yr old title would be up in the air.
   If a scenario develops like the one I just described then the title probably wouldn't be settled until someone wins another big race like the Jockey Gold Cup or the Breeders Classic and I don't think Shack can handle the distance of those races. I also doubt if any of these can win the BC unless Coil or Thirsty really step up to the plate.
   To me the obvious thing for Shack is to go to another race and hope that Thirsty beats Coil in the Travers. I am also not totally discounting Alternation in the Travers. I thought he would be short in the Dandy, not having had a race in 2 months.
   I'll look at the Travers when all the entries are in but it looks to be shaping up as one heluva race.
  
   I'm starting to look at the pedigrees of this years 2 yr olds who might be heading to the BC. There's an awful lot to look at and is very time consuming but those big winners that are under the radar make it worthwhile.
Backstretch

Haskell and Jim Dandy

   With the 3 yr old situation as muddled as ever we may finally see one step up and assert itself. The next step after these two races would be the Travers followed by the JCGC and then the Breeders Cup. Right now I only see one 3 yr old horse that, in my opinion, has the goods to handle the derby distance of 1 1/4 and it's not Shack.
   I am still, being as they are still 3 yr olds, sticking with pedigree handicapping coupled with their performance so far.
   Even though the Haskell looks, on paper, to be the more competitive of the two races, I think the strongest horse is in the Jim Dandy. I have drawn a line through the Belmont because of the track condition that day. I watched the whole card on Belmont day and don't recall a closer making up any ground at all except for Animal Kingdom after his terrible start. The first 4 finishers in the Belmont were all right up there in the stretch and no closer gained on any of them. If any front runner couldn't hold on in that race they never will. Shack went awfully slow early in the Derby and still faded at the end. In the Preakness he was able to back the pace way down and barely held on.
   Between both of these races I only see a couple of legit colts capable of getting the longer distances, and to go to the BC or to be 3 yr old of the year, it's going to have to be one that steps up to the plate and so far I haven't seen but one that I think has the ability to do so and that's Alternation. We have seen no where near his best yet, and if he starts to run the way I think he can, we may be looking at the 3 yr old champ.

The Haskell:
1- Coil............................this is about the only one I see with an upside...has a lot of speed but with blinkers off Garcia may be able to rate him....poly to dirt horses usually show big improvement in speed ratings for Baffert and he seems to own the Haskell
2- Shackleford.................probably the horse to beat but his speed has to be very carefully rationed.
3- Joe Vann.....................seems to be strictly a front runner...has a really nice pedigree and could take them a long way at big odds.
4- Ruler On Ice...............always seems to get a piece of the action...love his pedigree...
5- Astrology....................Asmussen horses almost always run their race...have to throw out last...may get a piece but doesn't seem to have the grit to win.
6- Pants On Fire.............another with nice breeding but is an in and outer...could be there on best race.

Jim Dandy:
1- Alternation.................really nicely bred....early on I had him right behind Archarcharch who I really thought would win the Derby till he broke down...had 1 bad race in the AK Derby but had a very rough trip in that one but was coming anyway...if not a bit short I think it's an easy win for him.
2- Stay Thirsty...............he may finally be close to running to his potential...great pedigree
3- Dominus...................looks to be the one to catch...lightly raced...never worse than second.
4- Scotus......................another steady lightly raced colt...sits just off the pace and may be in good position to repeat.

And that's the way I see it!
Backstretch

The Starting Gate

   It's been said that more races are lost at the starting gate than anywhere on the track and I am inclined to believe it.
   Even though I am a spot player and scan anywhere form 50 to 150 races in a day and only come up with a couple of plays per day, it's uncanny how many of these plays get off to a bad start. I notice that most of the poor beginnings are with horses in the middle post positions. A horse on either side comes out and swerves and drives the horse alongside into another horse which sometimes sets up a chain reaction. Horses down on the rail are also subject to getting squeezed and bumped at the start.
   These bad starts are all too common in my opinion. Sometimes in a route race the horse is able to recover and have time to get into the race but in sprints, especially 5f races, a bad start means the race is usually over for that horse. Also, most jocks have a tendency to try to rush the horse into contention after a slow start and the horse is finished by the time it hits the stretch.
   I watch a lot of races and it seems like in about 50% of all races run, one or more entries run into trouble at the gate. Although I am only playing a couple spots per day I think that about 10-20 % of my plays run into trouble coming out of the gate. If I'm only looking to get 20-25 % winners with my plays these additional losers that are eliminated at the start take a heavy toll on my bottom line.
   I wouldn't think there is anything that can be done about it because the starting gate and all that happens in it are beyond any handicappers control. I suppose one could concentrate on only playing horses that show they are usually first out of the gate but this would severely limit your action. The problems at the gate are a blessing in disguise to a lot of fast breaking horses because they are sometimes able to get such a jump on the field that the race is over before anyone else can get into gear.
   At any rate, the gate problems are just one of the many reasons one can never expect to attain a very high win % and is an especially good reason to NEVER plunge on any horse. When trainers are asked about the chances of their horses in any race the first thing they usually say is that they are hoping for a clean break.
   Watch carefully to see if your bet got a clean start. You may not have bet the wrong horse if it loses but may have just been a victim of the starting gate chaos

Is handicapping for real or is it just a crock of doggy doo?
I happened to look at my bookshelf yesterday and noticed all the books I have on handicapping. I have read many of them several times, books by Ainslie, Christ, Beyer, Davidowitz, etc., and asked myself if I had learned anything from them. I have been reading and studying handicapping for over fifty years and have come to the conclusion that they are all full of sh*t.                                                                                         I was looking at Modern Pace Handicapping by Brohamer. One must be an MIT graduate to understand what he's talking about. Speed and pace handicappers, and I would bet that 90% of handicappers use that method, go through all those contortions to do what? Come up with the favorite? I can look at a race and in two minutes tell you the horses that figure to win and do it without a computer, calculator, or a pencil.
   They can do all the figures they want but they are still losers, just about every last one of them. Stop and think a moment about what they are doing. There's a guy with a pair of binoculars watching a race while it's running and he's making an eyeball guesstimate as to where each horse is on the track and how many lengths ahead or behind they are. Now this fact in itself tells us that every thing that is derived from these rough estimates can only be another set of rough estimates. And yet, these handicappers are trying to split hairs in hundredths of a second to find a perfect number that doesn't exist and never will.
   When thought about in a logical manner any reasonable person can see that to chase a fart in a windstorm is an exercise in futility and that's what handicapping is. Far from being an exact science, it doesn't even resemble science. No scientist in the world would place his faith in a foundation as shaky as the word of a chart caller.
   There are ways to make money playing horses but it damn sure isn't by handicapping numbers. Anybody that tells me they are a success at making money with horse racing by speed and pace handicapping may be fooling themselves but not me.
   Further proof lies in what one can see everyday on the internet, in newspapers and other media. There are dozens of "Handicappers" out there giving selections, some paid and some free. A lot of them sell ratings to guide the suckers to the best horses. A bunch of numbers that your supposed to decipher and apply to the horses.
   I have subscribed to some of these just to see what goes on with them. One guy gave me 15-20 horses a day and hit for a good percentage but always ended up losing money. Why would anyone pay to have someone give them a bunch of odds on horses when all you have to do is look at the tote board.
Then you have the guys that give you 4 horses in every race at 5-6 different tracks. They advise you to box these at a cost of better than a hundred bucks a race. I don't know about you but I'm not putting up 5 grand a day to bet when these same handicappers have no idea of which horses might win what races.

   The above thoughts are something I had posted on another website. Almost every day I am reminded of how true my words were.
   Let's just stop and use a little common sense and logic. We know that the public favorites win about 30% of the races. These horses are, for the most part, horses that "Figure" on paper. That is; they are the fastest or classiest or the most consistent. We also know that to play these horses is a losing proposition. You may lose a little slower, but lose you must. So, what really is handicapping? I would suppose it's the art of comparing one horse to another and trying to decide who will beat who. When one undertakes this task decisions must be made as to which of a multitude of factors is going to carry the most weight. When looking back at races that have been run you will find that factor "A" carried the most weight and in the next race factor "A" didn't mean a damned thing but factor "B" did and on down the line it goes.
   If one looks at the entries in a race with an experienced eye, most handicappers will come up with virtually the same horses. Oh, they may be a little different in the ranking order but they will be basically the same. The contenders are known and there are a whole bunch of reasons why one of these should win and one of them usually does but I'm only interested in the races they don't win.
   So if it's a losing proposition to bet the figures, what is one to do? If you know that a certain percentage of figure horses, (favorites) are going to win, but at much deflated prices, then it's logical to assume that there are other methods that will give a certain % of winners and if they are not the favorites then one can expect to turn a decent profit.
   I have devoted the better part of 60 yrs to finding horses that are well meant but have yet to show the form that would cause them to be hammered at the windows. One must learn to ANTICIPATE  a big effort from a horse, that is, before it tips it's hand that it's actually in form. Many horses I bet run second or third at big odds but I seldom bet them back because they are usually low odds after the good effort. The only question I ask myself is, "Who's going to run good today?". If your always on horses that are going to try today, although a try doesn't mean they can win, your going to get a certain % that will win. I am constantly getting on horses at 20/1 or more, and even if they run second, I usually pick up a nice exacta.
   Horse racing is far from being an exact science but there are so many handicappers out there, and I'm so glad there are for obvious reasons, that are looking for the magic number or the "Holy Grail" which does not exist. I have gotten into it many times with figure players who have the attitude that anything other than figures is totally false. What they don't understand is that I've been there and done that but they have never been where I am. It's sort of like talking to a kid where they can't understand that being near 80 yrs old, I have been where they are, but they can only hope to get where I am now.
   In order to beat the races the first thing one must keep in mind is my signature; "People run horse racing, horses just run!". There are so many intrinsic things involved in horse racing, things that have no logical explanation, at least to humans, but may make perfect sense to the horse.
   I'm hoping to find time in the near future to expand on this so stay tuned.
Backstretch  

Horse Forums

   There are a few horse racing forums on the internet and I've visited most of them. For the most part they are friendly places where folks get together to express their opinions and select winners.
   There is one however, that to enter is to step into a war zone, which in reality means; if you don't subscribe to speed and pace handicapping your regarded as a Neanderthal. They, and only they, have the answers to any and all questions regarding horse racing in any size shape or form
   There are numerous characters on there that sell speed and pace ratings and various other useless stuff. A real bunch of hucksters whose main claim to fame is to try to discredit or defame anyone who isn't in the clan. Here's the kicker though, nobody on there actually offers anything constructive, but they do spend an inordinate amount of time trying to tear other people and their ideas apart.

   I have been trying for some time to figure the motivation of these kooks and have finally decided it's the colors on the website which are mostly green, as in envy. They are all jealous of anyone with an original idea and are really pissed that they didn't think of it, but most of all, they envy anyone who might be successful ACTUALLY making money by betting. They may be hawking numbers and ratings but that's a far cry from actually picking the winners of races.

   Now here's what's really funny. I have had a service for a number of years that bettors subscribe to and I send them my daily selections. Many of these subscribers have been with me for quite a few years. They just pay a monthly fee and they get the plays by e-mail. I have a couple of players that I don't even charge because they send me a % of their winnings. If they didn't make money I don't think they would be paying my fee for years. BUT WHAT I LOVE is that I keep picking up subscribers from that horse racing site. Now that's really funny.

Belmont Stakes

   I was hoping there might be some more speed in this race but there doesn't seem to be anything that can run with Shackleford. There are a couple with a little speed but nothing to speak of. In addition, even if there is one with enough speed to put a little pressure on Shack, it's doubtful if anyone wants to sacrifice themselves in a speed duel. So what does this say about the race? They are going to have to catch Shack again.
   There has been a lot of speculation about the track on Derby day. Some say the slow fractions in the race were slow because of the track. I have a couple of questions concerning that. One is, if the track was so slow that day then how come just about every horse in it got the highest speed rating of their life? It's my opinion that Shack slowed the pace to a crawl and that's the reason the closers, except Animal Kingdom, had so much trouble trying to close. Luckily for Nehro, Nakatani realized how slow they were going and sent Nehro up after Shack but taken out of his element he couldn't hold off Animal in spite of the slow pace. If the pace hadn't been so slow Nehro would never have been chasing the leader so early.
   We had almost the same situation in the preakness with Shack controlling the pace again. The difference was that Animal Kingdom had a terrible trip, thanks to JR. Shack stalked the sprinter and when that one folded he was able to back the pace down and with the others so far back Shack managed to hold on.
   Here's how I see it; Shack will again go to the lead and slow the pace down. AK and MOH will try to be closer this time and will probably catch him because I don't believe Shack can get the distance of this race unless allowed to go really slow early.
   I believe there has been a total misinterpretation of the Derby and Preakness by the numbers guys. Any horse that has a natural high cruising speed that is on the lead and allowed to throttle down is going to be hard to catch. Shack is a horse with a high cruising speed and is a push button horse in that, he can back the pace down when asked and step it right up when the pedal is put to the metal.
   In the derby Shack was allowed to slow the pace to a crawl after 6f, and as Nakattani said, if he tried to hold Nehro back any longer he would have probably stopped from being strangled. It matters not what the numbers boys think, the only ones who know if they are ggoing fast or slow are the horses themselves and Nehro said,"We're going too damned slow!". So Shack, in spite of how much he slowed down, and the fact that Nehro who was out of his element being up on the pace, was still able to get by Shack at the end.
   In the Preakness, the race started fast but as soon as the sprinter folded and Shack inherited the lead he backed the pace right down again. In both the Derby and Preakness, most of the jocks who were on closers were bound and determined to come from way off the pace come hell or high water. It was to Animal Kingdom's credit that he was able to sustain such a long drive to win the race.
   There has always been a lot of talk about the ability of jocks to judge pace and I think those two races show that most can't really tell how fast the race is being run. They were all faked out in the Preakness when the race started so fast and then they didn't realize how much it was being slowed down until it was too late. This was another example of how good the Animal is because, in spite of how far back he was, he damned near won it anyway. Any decent jock can win on the front end with a high cruising push button horse but it takes a real judge of pace to bring a horse home from off the pace. This is why I give a lot of credit to Mike Smith for the enormous success of Zenyatta. He may have slightly misjudged once in awhile but he always managed to get her there in time. This just tells me what a superb jock Mike is, probably the best since Howard Grant and Eddie D. I sincerely believe if Mike was on the Animal he would be virtually unbeatable.
   My pedigree horses are Animal Kingdom, Master Of Hounds, Macho Man,Santiva and Stay Thirsty. Nehro has been getting there but I really have my doubts about him getting the distance. Macho Man seems to have run his best races already and is just a tad below the best of these. Stay Thirsty is nicely bred but has yet to show the kind of speed needed.
   My selections are;
Animal Kingdom...has shown he can be put into a drive a long way and is the one to beat.

Master Of Hounds....in most of his races has been able to track the leaders..has a great pedigree and can take it all with a good trip.

Santiva...pedigree says he can get this distance...is able to run closer to the pace but was another victimized by the slow pace in the derby...I think he is sitting on a big race...this is my long shot upset possibility

Nehro...don't care too much for his breeding but has been getting close so I can't discount him.

Shackleford...if he's able to control the pace and slow it down enough he can hang in for a piece.

I will use AK in the top 3 positions in the exotics with the other 4 under and over him.

9/1,4,6,12.....1,4,6,12/9/1,4,6,12.....1,4,6,12/1,4,6,12/9

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Preakness Recap

   I've been a little slow getting around to this because I hadn't decided yet whether Animal Kingdom lost because he was beat by a better horse or for another reason. I have watched the rerun about 25 times and watched it in slow motion also.
   AK got off a little slow but had a chance to move up between horses but JR took him back and over to the rail. The thing is that AK had demonstrated in his previous races that he could run just off the pace. In his third race back in a 1 mile race on the turf he was only 1 length of the lead after 3/4 that went in 1:10/4. In his Spiral win he was only 2 lengths off the pace after 3/4 that was run in 1:12/2 on the poly. In his maiden win he ran 2nd for 3/4 before taking the lead. This horse has clearly shown he can run on the pace.
   In the KY derby he was a little farther back but never more than 6 lengths. Another point is that he had always run in full fields of 10-12 horses. By dropping him back 20 lengths JR just gave him too much to do. JR claims that AK didn't like the dirt in his face and that's why he kept him back so far. My question is; if he didn't like dirt in his face how come it didn't bother him when he was asked to run? Also, instead of dropping back out of the race to avoid dirt why didn't he just take him to the outside and move up closer? I have known of lots of horses over the years that wouldn't take dirt but the jocks were usually instructed to run wide to avoid it, not drop out of the race. Personally, I think JR is totally and absolutely FULL OF SHIT!
   He just can't man up to the fact that he totally misjudged the pace that started quick but just as quickly slowed down. The thing that impressed me most about AK was the fact that, in spite of a terrible ride, he damn near won anyway. Some may think I'm being unfair to JR but this guy has never been good on closers and I think he's way over rated as a jock. If he wasn't hooked up with Pletcher he would just be another ordinary jock in my book. And, he is so use to running on the front end with most of Pletcher's horses he doesn't know how to close. Alright, I'm ranting about him and you may not agree but think about this: Zenyatta won 19 in a row coming from way out of it. In order to do that the rides must be judged perfectly. She won lots of races by a head or so. Mike Smith always got her there in time and if he had been on AK the race wouldn't even have been close. Of course this is my opinion and I'll stick with it. If they ride JR back on AK in the Belmont they are crazy.
   Now that I've vented about why I think the best horse got beat I'd like to mention something else. In a previous post I had talked about the fact that there were only 10% of over 300 contenders this year that were Phalaris out-crosses and 3 had made it into the derby. There were 2 more that made it into the Preakness for a total of 5. To me that's amazing! Counting 1 that ran in the derby but not the Preakness comes out to 6 horses getting there out of thirty. That means those 6 were better than more than 270 contenders for the triple crown. Simply amazing!
   I didn't have them in exact order but I had 8 of my horses in the top 9 in the race. I didn't have Shack way up on the list but I had the 11,1,and 8 up there. This was basically just pedigree handicapping. I always had doubts about Dialed In getting the distance although he ran a decent race. One horse I knew couldn't get , not even 1 1/8 was Sway Away. I never understood all the action on a horse that never won anything. Another that I felt pretty sure didn't belong was Midnight. Oh well, I guess it's on to the Belmont which may be a very interesting race if Master Of Hounds and Alternation show up.

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My Preakness Selections and Analysis

   Last year I had the first 5 finishers in correct order and that was posted on the web. I could only hope that would happen this year.If I recall, last years race seemed a lot easier to handicap. I think the key to handicapping this race is a correct analysis of the derby.
   Trainers and jockeys read the racing form just like handicappers do. They try to decide where the speed is and how the race is going to shape up. In the derby there looked to be plenty of speed in it and almost everyone decided to lay off the pace figuring that with a fast pace the speed would fold up and set it up for a closer. They outsmarted themselves though when Shackleford went to the lead and nobody challenged him.The only jock that realized how slow they were going was Nakatani on Nehro. Nehro is normally a closer and after a half finds himself sitting second. Now there are some that contend that the pace wasn't all that slow but that the track made for the slow fractions. I don't agree with that because in my opinion Nehro would have quit if that was the case. I say the pace was extremely slow and if not for that Shackleford would have been no where to be found at the finish. In addition, there would have been a lot more horses coming at the end. All the closers laid too far off that slow pace and didn't have a chance. So much for jockeys having a clock in their head.
   If I am correct in my analysis it makes Animal Kingdom's race all the more remarkable. Had there been some pace and the front runners had backed up he would have probably have won by 10 or more lengths or more.
   I expect more pace in the Preakness for a couple of reasons. There are 3-4 in here that have natural speed and there are a few others that are going to be asked for speed. I would think most don't want to get caught with their pants down again.
Here are my selections for the Preakness; as to the pedigrees, except for the top one they are fairly close in potential.

#11 - Animal Kingdom  2/1.....this years races have seem to come down to the survival of the fittest and this one looks to be fit....has done everything right so far while the rest have had one excuse after another...nothing seems to bother him and until he does something wrong I will stick with him.

#8 - Dance City  12/1....there have been a couple horses this year that have come off very similar races and went on to win their next race...I don't think Ramon, who really knows this track, will battle for the lead with the 4 and 5...the big question is, will he be rated and will he take to stalking?

#3 - King Congie  20/1....your probably wondering how I can pick this one...a couple reasons...one is that he really should have won the Bluegrass but had a rough trip... another is that Brilliant speed, who won the Bluegrass ran a very good race in the derby finishing 7th but only beaten a nose by the 5th and 6th horses...another is that the horses coming off the turf and poly seem to moving forward on the dirt this year and this one has been working on the dirt at Belmont...another point is that, when he is right, Robby is, in my opinion, one of the best jocks riding and is a helluva improvement over Rajiv who seems to have a knack for getting into trouble unless he's on a front runner...and wouldn't it be something if Robby, who lost the ride on Animal Kingdom to JR, were to win this...talk about ironic!

#1 - Astrology  15/1....one of the better pedigrees in here...I don't know why he was so late getting started this year but has been playing catch-up...has some tactical speed and should get good position behind the leaders from the rail...knowing Mike likes to sit he may have a good kick turning for home...I also think he's finally coming around and is sitting on a big race.

#9 - Mucho Macho Man  6/1...has been steady all year and is still maturing...should be in the hunt if Rajiv doesn't screw him up.
Honorable mention: Shackleford, Mr Commons, Isn't He Perfect

Winning Pedigree Contenders

Listed below are horses I had on my pedigree list that have won a graded race this year.

Alternation
Animal Kingdom
Anthony's Cross
Archarcharch
Bench Points
Brilliant Speed
Joe Vann
Soldat
Stay Thirsty
The Factor
Travelin Man
Watch Me Go
   There were a few that I liked but had some question about their distance ability like Dialed In who I still have a question about him getting the distance. There are also some borderline cases which I take up on a race by race comparison.
   Pedigree handicapping is not an exact science by any means but I have found that when performance is considered in conjunction with breeding, a good percentage of winners can be had in these graded races.
   My next quest will be to see if I can separate the contenders for the Preakness which I will do as soon as the post positions are drawn.
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ANIMAL KINGDOM: Outside The Box Breeding?

   As the breeders of most any animal or bird can tell you; if one constantly breeds from the same source or within the same family a degeneration of the original eventually sets in. This degenerative process may not always be visible to the naked eye but exists none the less. People who look to buy pure bred dogs for instance, are always warned about being careful about who they buy dogs from. The reason is that many dog breeders start out with a pair of dogs and breed from them for many years, breeding close relatives to each other without ever introducing new blood into the kennel. The end result is that the degenerative process sets in and more and more sub par individuals are produced.

   When introducing new bloodlines into a family great care must be taken to insure that one doesn't totally destroy what had been desirable in the original. The new introduction must be as close as possible to the original.
   To better explain this I'll use an example of an experiment I once undertook with my racing pigeons. I caught some feral pigeons such as you see in the parks and under bridges. I set up a small loft for them and my object was to see what would happen when I crossed them with some good racing pigeons. I wanted to see if I could get these feral pigeons to fly like pure racing pigeons.

   I first bred some young ones from the feral family and then entered them in some races. They couldn't find their way home from 100 miles. I then crossed them with the racing birds and they still couldn't fly 100 miles. I then bred the offspring of the cross back to the racing family and finally got them to home from 100 miles and after several generations of constant breeding back to the original racing birds they were able to home from a few hundred miles but were never really any good. Another point was that I was able to eventually produce a bird that was very similar in appearance and conformation to the racing birds but the homing instinct, which is an intrinsic value, was never really there. I attribute this to the fact that I was experimenting with a totally inferior bird to begin with. When I would introduce new blood into my family of birds it sometimes took numerous tries before I found something that was a satisfactory cross.

   So what has this to do with horse racing?
   When Tesio bred Nearco he ushered in a new era in horse breeding. Through his sons, Nearartic and Nasrullah, a line, or family was started that would proceed to dominate horse racing for many years. The fashionable breeding lines today are those of Northern Dancer, a son of Nearartic and also the Raise A Native line through his son Mr. Prospector who was out of a grand daughter of Nasrullah. As the years have gone by there have been tons of horses bred from this combination and they have basically dominated the American racing scene for a long time. All one has to do is look at the pedigrees of champions over the last 50 years and this family, which is really known as the Phalaris line because he was the grand-sire of Nearco, and the g.g.grandsire of Native Dancer can be found in almost all of them.

   It has been noted in many circles that the modern American  racehorse has been getting more and more fragile over time. This has been blamed on the penchant in America to breed more for speed than stamina and thus create a smaller boned more fragile horse more prone to injury. This may have been true initially but I attribute the present day circumstances more to a basic degenerative process that has set in. Since the early success of this line of horses there have been more and more of them bred along the same lines which has in turn made all of them more and more closely related. I look at these horses as a family and it has become an inbred family to the extent that it is well into the degenerative process.

   I tend to disagree with Roman, in that, he begins to basically disregard horses that he considers too far back in the family tree. The closer a champion is in a pedigree the more weight he gives it. Unlike others, when looking at a pedigree I look at the family as a whole and am especially cognitive of where females are situated in the pedigree.

   I personally think that too much emphasis is placed on the immediate sire, especially among handicappers. Take a look at the sires of horses like Smarty Jones. His sire, Elusive Quality, was considered a miler and I remember when I was touting Smarty Jones early on, the word was that he couldn't get the classic distance because his immediate sire couldn't. But Smarty was of the family of Nasrullah by way of the great Bold Ruler who sired and grand-sired more than a couple of derby winners. There are other milers that have sired good horses able to get the classic distances. It is for these reasons that I contend that it is the family or line that carries the most weight. This is another reason that when looking at pedigrees to determine my classic contenders, I don't go into all the details of who won what and when. I just look at the family, where the females are located in relation to one another, and then wait to see some performance from them. Early on I do make some predictions based on the pedigrees. When it gets to the nitty-gritty I then weigh their performance against the potential of the breeding.

   Now, what has all this to do with Animal Kingdom? People with any knowledge of race horses know that ALL modern race horses were originally derived from 3 horses which in essence makes them all related so in reality it would be impossible to introduce new blood into the family unless they were crossed with something like a Zebra which is probably related to the horse if one goes back far enough. So what is meant by the introduction of new blood into a family?

   When a breeder attempts to breed an animal or bird a particular model is set up which is determined by the characteristics desired in the finished product. This is normally conducted through the process of culling which is the discarding of those with undesirable traits in favor of those that are closer to the desired. Through the process of elimination the goal may be reached but at the same time the path followed will naturally lead to an inbred product. This has been the result of the constant striving for a faster and faster horse in America. And, as I have stated, I feel that at this point in time the American model of the thoroughbred is well along in the inevitable degeneration of  the family that has been created.

   In order to cross this inbred family we now have, a different model must be introduced. But what are we looking for? There have been crosses of the Phalaris family with non- Phalaris horses by way of the likes of St Simon through Princequillo in order to bring some stamina into the Phalaris family. This has met with some success and may have much more success with the introduction of the German bred horses which are really bred more for endurance than speed.
   By the way, Zenyatta was of the Phalaris family with Princequillo-St Simon introduced through the maternal side of her dam's sire.

   To illustrate the point consider these facts: Out of approx 300 early classic contenders there were only 10% that were a P/NP cross. Of that meager 10% there were 3 that made it into the KY Derby, Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man and Twice The Appeal. Others of that 10% were Toby's corner, who would have made the derby if not injured, Mr Commons, who will go in the Preakness, Wilkenson, Silver Medallion and Bier Meister who were all good winners. Another interesting item is that almost all of these horses are come from behind horses that have had no trouble with distance. A rather amazing statistic don't you think? It is entirely possible that another as good as or better than Zenyatta may come along as a result of more outcrossing to that inbred line of Phalaris horses.

   What these crosses produce is what's known as HY-BRED vigor. Hy-bred vigor is similar to what happens in the plant families when different strains are crossed to make the plant and it's fruits bigger, stronger and more disease resistant. In animals it produces a bigger, more robust and healthier animal that is more resistant to disease and injury.

   Which brings us to Animal Kingdom who happens to be the result of a somewhat accidental mating. His dam was originally scheduled to be serviced by a stallion who was injured and was unable to fulfill his duties. Since a mare must be covered within a small time frame she was immediately sent to a stallion that was nearby and available and happened to be Leroidesanimaux. This sire is inbred to the Northern Dancer-Nasrullah line. The dam also has Northern dancer blood through her dam. The dam sire is Aceatenango who was a German champion up to and including 12 f. It is the introduction of this stallion into the Phalaris family that did the trick in my opinion. So, even though his sire was known as a miler, it has had no effect on AKs ability to get a distance of ground. So much for the miler business. When speaking of breeding from families or breeding only from performers, consider this quote I received  from a reader:

  This is a comment from the wife of J.J Vuillier the originator of the Dosage Theory.
The Aga Khan's best race mares have not been and presently are
not his best broodmares. His best horses usually come from the
sisters and half sisters of the great winning mare.
  
   Will the breeding of Animal Kingdom, especially if he should win the Triple Crown, usher in a new era of breeding? I have high hopes for that although it will take some years to find out as it will come about gradually and not over night. Sadly, as I am now pushing 80 years, I won't be around to see it.

It is now 2016 and I see an abundance of colts with an out cross in their pedigrees, especially the Intentionally line.

KY DERBY BETS

   This is such a wide open race it's hard to zero in. The biggest problem is not knowing how some of these that have never raced on dirt will take to it.
   As you know I handicap these type races basically by pedigree. I then try to incorporate each horse's performances to date. I don't use speed figures as a means of separation but only as a means to tell me if the horse is going to run well today. The pedigree tells me the potential of the horse if all things are equal.
   Post position and jockeys play a big part in these races and we have no way of telling how the race is going to play out as to running positions and trouble encountered. We can only hope that everyone has a good trip and nothing crazy happens.
   Everyone is always concerned, as they should be, about the speed in the race. In this race there is quite a bit of speed but there are only a couple that I expect to hang in there past a mile. In fact the couple I see with speed that could hang in there may try to rate off the early leaders.

These are my pedigree horses. What it means is that I believe these horses are bred for the distance and are always possible winners. As in the caase with Mine That Bird, he was one of 6 pedigree horses I had and was probably the least likely but he won anyway. Some that I list today may not look fast enough to win but it seems that as long as the horse is able to get the distance he has a shot.

Master of Hounds....outstanding breeding..big question, can he handle dirt?

Archarcharch....excellent pedigree...at least we know what he can do.

Watch Me Go...this may surprise many but there have been 3 derby winners in the past 13 yrs with comparable breeding...doesn't seem fast enough but one never knows.

Santiva....Another that is bred for the classic distances....has shown flashes and likes CD.

The following horses are hard to separate because there are some gray areas but the pedigrees are OK.

Dialed In
Midnight Interlude
Stay Thirsty
Brilliant Speed
Soldat
Animal Kingdom....this one could probably be placed anywhere on the list.

I will be using all of the pedigree horses in some kind of exotic play with the top two.

My selections:
#1-- Archarcharch....I know he has a bad post but I believe he is quick enough from the gate to not get buried on the rail...the next 3 outside of him are are not that quick

Bet #1---ex wheel ....1/all....all/1

Bet #2---tri part wheel all 3 positions with the 1 w/8,13,15,17

BET #3---tri...1,11,16/1,11,16/all

That's all the bets I can give because my paid clients are upset already about me blogging my picks.

Good Luck,
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