Sunday, November 27, 2011

Remsen and Jockey Club Recap

   Sometimes handicappers think that the pace of a race is slow but we don't really know how hard the horses were really running. The fractions in the Remsen would lead one to believe they were going slow up front but the way the race unfolded might say otherwise. Super Speedy was pressed all the way by Our Entourage into deep stretch. A couple others, especially Speightscity who has good speed, couldn't keep up, which might mean they weren't really going as slow as we might think.
   I have been hoping we might see some speed horses this year that can carry their speed a long way unlike last year when the only front runner that stayed healthy was Shackelford.
   In the case of the Remsen, we are left with 2 possibilities, either the pace was slow or it wasn't. If it wasn't there is the chance that Super Speedy is a good one. This was only his second race and has lots of room to improve on that big jump in distance. He has a beautiful pedigree that should carry him at the longer distances.
   On the other hand, if he was really going that slow, I am impressed by Done Talking who came a long, long way to only get beaten by a length. The winner had a perfect stalking trip and took advantage of Souper Speedy having to finally put Our Entourage away in the stretch. The connections of O'prado Again feel they have a derby horse, which he might be, but I like their other horse Dullahan better for the derby distance.

As for the Jockey Club race, Gemologist can't be faulted because he is undefeated. He has good speed and showed he can also sit back a little and pounce. My problem with him is that Pletcher always has his horses ready early but he usually manages to squeeze the lemon dry by derby time. They are planning to take the same route as they did with Super Saver. I think Pletcher was actually surprised when Super Saver won the derby so I don't put too much stock in his plans. I also don't think Gemologist is bred for the Derby or Belmont distance. Of course that's just my opinion. Ever So Lucky was going to try to wire the field and almost pulled it off but he's another that I don't think can get 1 1/4 miles. He did run a little too quick early and hung in but I think distance will be a factor with him. Timely Tally closed a ton and it's the second time he's been close to Geologist so might be better down the line. Timely Tally is ridden by Borel and he also has the mount on another good closer in Motor City and both are bred to get the distance. I wonder who he likes better?
   As to looking for the speed horse of the year I am impressed with Hansen. I really think if the track wasn't biased in the Breeders Cup he may have won by 10 or more. His breeding also tells me he can run all day but we have got to see what happens when a few of the speedsters meet.

   Now we have got to wait and see what happens this winter down in Fl at GP and Tampa. Don't forget, a lot of  Derby contenders don't break their maiden till this time of year. Should be interesting.

Backstretch

Friday, November 25, 2011

Remsen and KY Jockey Club

   It looks to me that this years road to the Triple Crown should get very interesting. I think this years crop has a lot more horses with classical breeding than last year. As you know, after the mishandling of Uncle Mo, last years races were mostly won by different horses and nobody showed they were superior to the rest. There were a few good ones along the way but it seems most of them succumbed to injury before they were able to accomplish very much.
   Last years Remsen only had 5 entries but this year there are 10 and most of them are very nicely bred and have been showing some talent already. This should be a very contentious race and judging from the pedigrees, I don't think many of them can be written off yet even in defeat.
   The jockey Club doesn't look as competitive as the Remsen but a couple of nice ones could emerge from it.

Remsen: In order of my pedigree preference..

Souper Speedy....... surprised @ 30/1 in debut in mud...super pedigree but has to prove more.

Speightscity.........fantastic pedigree...has gone a distance ...chased Hansen on tiring track

Stephanoatsee.....inbred to great derby winning line...great trainer

Done Talking........bred to get the distance...is getting a nice foundation..

El Padrino............great pedigree...blew them away in first try at a mile..

Managed Account...another with a nice pedigree...looks to be improving

   All the entries are nicely bred but right now some are more advanced than others..as we go into next year and the TC preps they will start to weed themselves out. I feel that this may be a very important race because of the abundance of top notch breeding and the talent already shown..Don't be too surprised to see some big prices on the board

Jockey Club; some nice ones in here but not nearly as good as in the Remsen.

Cyber Secret....could be a real good one

Gemologist.......2 for 2 so far...Pletcher usually has them ready early.

Timely Tally.....another from a great derby winning line.

Seve.............still a maiden and must show something on dirt but has a really nice pedigree.

Ever So Lucky...may be real good til the derby distance comes up.

Right now we will just have to let them weed themselves out...it takes talent and a pedigree...I like to see both because some have talent but can't get the classic distances and some are bred right but can't run to their pedigrees..I hope to see some this year that are really talented and have a classic pedigree...what we need is a few that can run up front and sustain their speed...last year all we had was Shackleford and he was not bred for the classics.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Delta Jackpot

   The Delta Jackpot could be called a "Win and Your In" prep for the KY Derby. With a purse of one million dollars the winner is virtually assured of a spot in the KY Derby. Makes one wonder why more high profile horses aren't entered. I would think that winning this race would give the connections an awful lot of options as to what races to enter and how often to race. I suppose the winner could just sit on the sidelines til the big dance.
   The field looks to be competitive enough but I don't see any of these as a serious derby contender. I see a few decent pedigrees but nothing that excites me at all.
   Drill looks to have run against better fields than the rest but threw a real clunker last time although he did have some trouble at the start. I would have liked to see him at least get involved in the race so, even though he may bounce right back, I'm going against him.
   As many readers know, I use pedigrees as my main handicapping tool in these races for young horses so that's how I will judge this race.

1- My Adonis.....
2- Drill
3- Sabercat
4- Tiz Moe

   I won't be putting any of these pedigrees on my derby watch list because I don't think any of them are bred for classic distances.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Backstretch Bits and Pieces

   I get random thoughts all the time so I thought it time to record some of them.

   Uncle Mo: I almost never agree with Andy Beyer, mostly because I believe his figures are a bunch of crap, but on Uncle Mo we are one. The terrible job that was done on that horse is a crying shame. Probably the biggest reason he was handled so badly was the desire to have him remain undefeated. Dodging the competition and trying to pick easy spots was what came back to bite Repole and Pletcher in the ass. Had they actually raced UM into condition he probably wouldn't have been beaten. I believe he had the pedigree to handle the distance and I don't buy that liver disease bull. One thing I do believe is that Pletcher, considering the horses he gets, is not much of a trainer and is piss poor at prepping a horse for the long distance races. JMO

   I got into another rhubarb on THAT website because I had the nerve to suggest that there may have been a track bias for the BC. I thought that because so many horses that won had come from off the pace in the middle of the track there may have been something to favor closers. Even though I have since read numerous columns and opinions agreeing with my assessment, I guess everyone that agrees there was a bias is wrong. Why? Because Christ Jesus says so! Case closed!

   How much is a length worth in terms of odds? I haven't really kept a record of how often this happens but I can recall some just from memory. I had noticed that in 2007 Street Sense had been beaten by Circular Quay by a nose in his previous race, yet CQ went off as the favorite and SS won at 15/1. This year there were a couple that I noticed like Musical Romance who actually beat Switch last time. Switch went off as the 3/1 second choice and Musical Romance won @ 20/1. Then we have the classic where Flat Out, who had beaten Drosselmeyer by 2 lengths, is sent off as the favorite and is out of the money while Drossel wins @ 15/1. In the JGC, which was run in the mud, Drosselmeyer was the only horse gaining on Flat Out. Factor in that in most of the previous races closing horses were winning, and we know that distance is no problem for Drossel, how could he be ignored in the betting? The icing on the cake was that Mike Smith, who I consider to be the best come from behind jock in the country, had ridden the horse once and won the Belmont with him. Many reasons to bet Drossel and yet he's ignored. So, next year, keep in mind that horses like these can be totally ignored by the public.

   I noticed that a few stallions had their stud fees increased dramatically for next year. I wonder how these stallions would have done if they didn't have their pick of broodmares. I believe that there are many stallions that would produce good ones if they were able to cover some better mares. That's why the owners of the high priced studs retain the right to reject mares they don't like. They really wouldn't like it known that without the right mares their champs may sire nothing noteworthy.

   Do you actually think that horses are as erratic as the Beyer's make them out to be?

   Next post; Delta Jackpot or is it "Win and Your In"?

Monday, November 7, 2011

Breeders Cup 2 yr old Recap

   Although my pedigree horses did very well I wasn't overly impressed. Stephanie's Kitten looks to have more potential and should continue her winning ways. Northern Passion was ambitiously placed and should have stayed on the turf where I think she will have some success.
   My Miss Aurelia seems to be a notch above at this point in time but time must be given to others in order to mature.
   My main focus now will be to follow the colts as they sort each other out heading for the Triple Crown. There will be something like 400 horses nominated to the KY Derby and a lot of them haven't even started yet. Of course I like to see them get some racing under their belt so as to build a foundation. We all saw what happens when a horse like Uncle Mo is babied and lacks experience and a sound racing foundation. And let's not get overly impressed with horses like Hansen and Union Rags because there has been only one horse that won the BC and went on to win the KY Derby and that was Street Sense.
   The colt that has impressed me the most is Dullahan. In the BC he was bumped at the start and left about 15 lengths behind. He made a strong move very late and passed 5 horses in the stretch while only beaten 6 lengths. Has a strong pedigree for the classic distances and I feel sure will do better as he is stretched out. Hansen and Union Rags are very nice colts with good pedigrees but I'm not convinced they can get the Derby distance. Hansen does have an edge because of his speed and if you recall this past year there were no real quality colts with speed besides Shackleford and he was not bred for the longer distances.
   I also think there's a lot of upside for Speightscity. He has a really nice pedigree and actually ran well in the BC by chasing Hansen to the stretch. If he learns to rate a little off the pace and matures more he may be one to deal with in the future.
   There were a few excellent pedigrees that didn't show up for the BC. I really like a few foreign ones like Red Duke, Parish Hall and Power. And speaking of power, another US horse I really like is Power World.
   I'm not sure why some of these didn't show up but I will try to keep tabs on them in the future. There are a lot who have only made a start or two and some who will be making a final start by the years end. It should be an interesting winter in FL and the other southern states as the race to the crown starts taking shape.
Backstretch

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Breeders Cup 2 yr old pedigrees

Already this year, of the short list of pedigrees I posted on my blog, these are the stakes winners since I posted them.

My Miss Aurelia.......Frizette
Northern Passion.....Natalma
Stephanies Kitten....Alcibides
Finale.....................Summer
Union Rags.............Champagn
Dullahan.................Breeders Fut.
Motor City..............Iroquois

Here are some pedigrees I like in the BC 2 yr old races. Keep in mind that I am picking pedigrees that I think will handle the classic distances down the road. There are many more really nice pedigrees this year than last year so I'm only posting the ones I like best. There are some that are good but not really great and will make their presence felt because of having good form.
 In alphabetical order;

Fillie Turf:

Elusive Kate
Hard Not To Like
My Gi Gi
Pure Gossip
Stephanie's Kitten
Somali Lemonade
Sweet Cat

Fillie Dirt

Grace Hall
Homecoming Queen
My Miss Aurelia
Northern Passion
Questing
Self Preservation

Colts Turf:

Animal Spirits
Caspar Netscher
Farraaj
Finale
Shkspeare Shaliyah
State Of Play

Colts Dirt:

Alpha
Daddy Long Legs
Drill
Dullahan
Fort Loudon
Hansen
Speightscity
Union Rags
Those are the pedigrees I like best although there are some that would be good if not up against these.
My selections for the Breeders Cup are not available here.