Newsletter # 48 Recap

Newsletter  # 48  Sat. 12/15/12

HOL  R9  Cashcall Futurity G1

Looks to be the last graded race for 2 yr olds this year. A nice, field performance wise, but I'm not too impressed by most of the pedigrees. Not that pedigrees matter all that much until the classic distances are reached but I base my choices on what I think their potential is down the road.

Three years ago Lookin At Lucky won this but the last two winners were not much of a factor in the TC races. There have been a few champs that have won this race but it hasn't been all that consistent in producing TC contenders. I'm not too impressed with this years field but one never knows, after all, it's horse racing.

As far as breeding, there are a couple that have pedigrees that might stand them in good stead when the longer races come up but as of now I'm not too excited by them.

He's Had Enough doesn't have any big figures but any horse that can do battle on even terms with Shanghai Bobby must have some talent. I really like his pedigree which tells me he can handle any distance. The key for him is not to get bogged down along the rail and encounter too much traffic when he makes his run.

Violence has a nice out crossed pedigree and hasn't done anything wrong yet. Question is how will he take to the track out there. He's a nice colt but, if he should win this, Pletcher will probably do with him as he did with Gemologist last year and let him wind down and then go try to go to the derby with only 2 prep races next year. How'd that work out?

Oxbow has a pedigree that couldn't have been planned better in my opinion. The problem with so many really nice bred colts is that no matter how much potential they may have, it still comes down to how the trainer handles them and if they are up for a big race when the time comes. Lukas has probably won more stakes than anyone but that was a long time ago. He still gets a nice one now and then but seems to have lost his touch. If it wasn't for the trainer I would probably put this one on top.

Really Mr Greely has the papers to be a good one also but hasn't tangled with anything good yet having won a graded race with only 5 runners. Looks to be fast and should take to the distance.

1- He's Had Enough
2- Violence
3- Oxbow
4- Really Mr Greely
Long Shot- Title Contender

RECAP

This one ended up with 4 horses wanting the lead and a very fast pace. I was afraid that He's Had Enough would get bogged down on the rail and that's what happened being compounded by a bad start.

Violence enjoyed the luxury of sitting off this pace and getting a dream trip but being the nice colt he is, he brought his A game and took it all. He has a pedigree full of potential and could go a long way in the hunt for top honors this year but, as I predicted, Pletcher is going to try to get him to the derby with just 2 races and this has been his plan with quite a few and it hasn't worked out very well.

Fury Kapcori was in a pace duel all the way and hung on very well to finish second. I don't know whether this means he's a very good colt or that there were none in here with much closing ability beside Violence.

I was impressed by Oxbows race more than the others. He was hard used early and very wide around the first turn trying to get up on that quick pace.It had to take a lot out of him early on. He then dropped back slightly and then made what might have been a premature move around the final turn and ran out of gas but did fight back hard to regain fourth. The bad post was his undoing in my opinion.

We will have to wait and see how Violence does against a more realistic pace and some better colts. I also want to see what happens if Oxbow happens to get an easy lead or is able to sit just off a normal pace in one of his future races.
Backstretch

Iroquois Recap

Newsletter  #42  Sun. 10/28/12

Iroquois Stakes G3  CD  R10

This isn't usually a race of any importance but sometimes the winner takes something else along the Triple Crown trail and that's what I do, follow the trail.

Overanalyze will probably be the favorite being a Pletcher horse and having won his last in a G2 at BEL. I'm kind of undecided concerning his pedigree. He won nicely last time with a change of tactics coming off the pace. Having won a sprint last time doesn't tell us anything about his ability to get a distance but this is only a mile and he figures to contend here. A longer distance down the road is another story.

Uncaptured is a nicely bred youngster that had ripped off four wins in a row. He became a bridgejumper in his last when he failed to hit the board at odds on. I saw that race and he ran into trouble in the stretch and was taken up. There was an inquiry but no DQ. I don't know how much closer he could have been but he's been too good to disregard off one shaky race. His pedigree says he could be a good one.

Positively has a positively super pedigree and I thought he could be special but he's had a problem in his last two. He got knocked around at the start of the Bashford and dropped to last but was really coming at the end and almost caught Circle Unbroken who is a nice one but is sidlined. He had a bad post in his last, the Breeders Fut., and had to drop way out of it to get to the rail but was really motoring down the lane. I'd really like to go with this one but with the outside post at this distance he'd have to get lucky to get any kind of position. I will be following him this winter and think he has the goods to get the longer distances.

Heaven's Runway has a nice pedigree and some speed. Hasn't met much yet but could be better than he's shown so far. Might have a chance if able to get loose.

Five Iron has speed and is kind of inbred to the RAN line but I have doubts about his long distance talent.

Pataky Kid ran a big one at this distance winning a G3 at AP but he's another inbred to RAN and may not like anything longer than 8-8 1/2f.

1- Positively...decided to take a shot and hope for a good trip.
2- Overanalyze...should be there at the end
3- Uncaptured...may be better than this
4- Pataky Kid...may bounce right back at this distance
Long Shot...Heaven's Runway...may carry his speed this distance.

Backstretch

RECAP
Overconfident ride by Calvin! This is not to say he would have won but it could have been a lot closer. Calvin got him out of the gate good and used him some to gain position because he didn't want to get shuffled back to last again. Took hold and had a good spot but made a premature big 5 wide move around the turn.

Uncaptured, the winner, is a really nice bred colt. Inbred with that Round Table in the tail should be at home in the classic distances. As I said, he got blocked in his last so he was much better than he looked off his last.

I've been up in the air about the breeding of Overanalyze and have my doubts about him getting a distance of ground. He didn't beat much in his last and it showed. I guess he won't be on my list of TC contenders.

Newsletter # 37 Recap

Newsletter  # 37  Sat. 9/22/12

Pennsylvania Derby

Parx R 11

As you know, the newsletter was meant to keep an eye on this year's 2 yr olds and their trek to the Triple Crown as 3 yr olds. I also planned on keeping to the graded races because it's a huge chore to keep tabs on all the babies that are running. Since there are no graded races for the youngsters this week I thought I would give a look at what's left of this year's 3 yr olds in the PA Derby.

It doesn't look like any of the 3 yr olds will be taking on older horses this year as in years past when they have a chance at a million bucks against their own kind. It looks like the present day champs are going to prove to be a cut below past heros because one of the tests for the champion 3 yr old was to be able to beat older horses, like in the JGC race. With all the horses being hurt or retired in their 3 yr old seasons it doesn't leave all that many really good older horses left to compete against anyway.

It's too bad in my opinion that the ranks of the 3 yr olds are so thinned that the field for this race is such that there are only two in it that have won a grade 1 and one that has won a grade 2. As far as pedigrees, I can't eliminate anyone on their pedigree as they all have nice breeding but most have not lived up to their full potential.

Alpha will be the chalk and his connections have actually done a masterful job of getting him into the softest spots possible. Not that he doesn't always bring his A game to the track but I don't see where he's beaten anything note worthy. I think he stole the Jim Dandy against a nothing field and was all out to deadheat another who hasn't accomplished much. He's a nicely bred horse that I think is still limited to 1 1/8 even though he managed to beat a sup par field in the Travers. This is another race without much quality, if there's any quality left in this crop at all.

Macho Macho has the papers to qualify here. He beat Bourbon Courage, who is a very nice one that came back to win the LA Derby and has not thrown a bad race since Asmussen has had him and I think he can handle these.

I know Golden Ticket ran a dead heat with Alpha last time but I think he got lucky with his trip. Also, in that race I felt that the best horse ran third because of a bad trip. GT has been fairly steady against lesser and ran a liftime best last time but I have doubts that he can repeat that.

Handsome Mike is a horse that I had thought to be better than he looks but never seems to get the right trip. When he has tried the front end there has been somebody running neck and neck with him. He ran into Paynter in the Haskell at MTH and didn't run all that bad. I'm hoping to see him use his speed to track the leaders one time and maybe show more than he has in the past.

Casual Trick is one that I liked way back when but it doesn't seem like Zito has been able to get it together this year. He had Fast Falcon wake up in the Travers so maybe things are starting to come together for him.

1- Macho Macho
2- Alpha
3- Handsome Mike
4- Casual Trick
Long Shot- Stephanoatsee

I don't usually do the filly races but I have an interest in a couple youngsters this year. In a couple of weeks a nice Irish filly named Watsdachances is going in the Miss Grillo stakes at BEL and her next stop, if all goes well, is the Breeders Cup. My interest is that a good friend of mine is one of the owners and I like to feel I had a small part in his investing in her. It will be fun to root for her and it would be swell to see her win the BC. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
                                                                RECAP

Originally I had tossed Alpha because I couldn't think of one really good horse he had beaten, seemed like his spots were well picked and soft. I thought that Macho Macho would be the horse to beat off his last and this race could have been a lot closer if MM hadn't lost so much ground by running extremely wide around the first turn. He also had a see-saw trip but was running strong at the end. I ended up putting him back in the mix because he has been consistent but I guess that was a mistake.

I had liked Handsome Mike in several races this year but he was never able to get clear on the front end and ended up in a speed duel each time. I had keyed him in that El Camino race and thought he ran great although tiring at the end. He has a great pedigree and I felt he would shine sooner or later.

I never liked the pedigree of Alpha because I thought he has distance limitations. He did win at 1 1/4 against a nothing field and he managed to steal the Dandy race against nothing again. He is a much over rated horse beyond 1 1/16.

I would have liked to see Fast Falcon in this race but now I have no idea what's next for him. I think he could be the best left of the 3 yr. olds by years end.

At any rate, it was a profitable race for me and mine and now looking to the Breeders Cup to cap off a nice year of winning bets.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 35 Recap

Newsletter # 35  Sat. 9/8/12

AP  R7  Arlington-Washington Futurity

This race doesn't have any of the young stars that were running at Sar but one never knows where a future star may pop up. This race was a more important race years ago but now being only a G3 with a relatively small purse it looks like the big timers are skipping it.

There are a few nice horses in this led by Muppet Man. I like his pedigree with all that Bold Ruler in him. He's a speedy type and an old lesson is to never bet against an undefeated horse. He has the rail but I don't think that's an advantage in a one turn race like this. Off his first two starts he looks like the one to beat. A homebred that's done everything right so far.

G. Gomez comes in from CA for this although I don't think he will make much difference. M. Mena won last time with Pataky Kid and he's a very capable jock. Petaky's pedigree is so-so but he's coming up to his third race so should improve some more but he's going to have to get closer to the pace in this one and his very sharp works say he may be sharpened enough to contend a little earlier.

I like the pedigree of Scissortail, another Okla bred like Pataky Kid, and though she's still a maiden I look for some big improvement in this one. She ran into trouble in her last but could be closer to the pace today. Maybe Donnie thinks this is a softer spot than the filly race.

Stormin Monarcho is very nicely bred and seems to give a decent effort each time he runs. Was too far off the pace in last against Muppet and had a rough trip in the race with Mylute. May be better than he looks on paper.

Mylute is one of those with a pedigree that sometimes fools me. He must be a nice looker judging by the price he brought at the sales. His sire Midnight Lute was a good one but a lot of the best sires are horses that match up well with a lot of mares. I don't care for this match but, as I said, I sometimes get fooled by this type so I can't discount him. He's run well in all his starts and the jock is having a good year. I also don't think the post will be a hinderence at this track and distance.

1- Muppet Man
2- Patacky Kid
3- Mylute
4- Stormin Monarcho
Long shot- Scissortail G

LAD  R10  The Super Derby

I'm wondering if this could be a race like the West Virgina Derby where Hansen folded up. In that race Bourbon Courage came from way back and couldn't quite get up. I really like his pedigree and think he likes a distance of ground. He ran into some very fast horses at a shorter distance at CD and BEL and think he might like the pace a tad slower. I know that those that put a lot of stock in dosage numbers and consider the sire the most important horse in the pedigree feel this horse can't get a distance but I always say; "Look at the mares", and the mares in this pedigree have great sire lines.

Fly Lexis Fly has a super nice pedigree and should improve off his first start in the US. Has some sharp works and with blinkers off may rate a little more kindly. I suppose G. Gomez had his choice and took Pataky Kid figuring it was an easier spot but Garcia thought it worthwhile to come in from CA.

Blueskiesandrainbows is a quick one and is coming off a win in the Swaps. However, the two he beat in that race went in the Travers and didn't show much at all, but of course, the Travers was tougher than this one. He got a liftime best Beyers in his last but he may get a lot of pressure in here and I'm not sure he can hold up. I'm not fond of his pedigree either so I'm looking to beat him and get some value.

Rousing Sermon is one of those with a kind of mixed up pedigree and really hasn't won anything noteworthy and was beaten here at this distance by Hero of order who virtually wired the field at 100/1. Having M. Smith on his back can only help because I regard Mike as probably the best closing jock in the country. Should get a minor piece.

Key Donation has a fair pedigree and seems to be on the upswing and has been right there in all his races except his first that was a sprint taken off the weeds. Has a very hot boy up and can't be eliminated.

1- Bourbon Courage
2- Fly Lexis Fly
3- Blueskiesandrainbows
4- Rousing Sermon
Long shot- Key Donation
Backstretch
RECAP

Patacky Kid did show some sharper speed and laid just off the pace and had a good closing kick to take all the marbles. Muppet man ran another good one but just wasn't good enough.

The Super Derby went as I thought it would with Hero of Order putting pressure on Blueskiesandrainbows who is one that I think needs a clear lead. Many times a speed horse can outrun it's pedigree if allowed to get away on the lead with no pressure and Blueskies is that type.

Bourbon Courage has a really nice pedigree and after this win I expect him to go on to bigger and better things. Despite the dosage I think he could get 1 1/4 with no problem. He has great acceleration on the turns where it really counts.

As I thought he would, Fly Lexis Fly ran a much improved race and with the blinkers off rated better but I feel he was held a little too far off the early pace but wasn't going to catch the winner in any case. He's another with a great pedigree who should move forward off this race.

I have read a lot of negative comments about Mike Smith that I don't feel are deserved. Regardless of what anyone else says, my opinion is that there is no better come from behind jock in the country. Mike gave Rousing Sermon a good ride and got what he could out of it. Rousing Sermon is a plodder type and has never won anything but State Bred races so I didn't expect him to get anything but a minor piece. I guess there are those who think Mike should have gotten off and carried the horse to the finish line.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 34 Recap

Newsletter # 34  Sun. 9/2/12

The Sapling

MTH  R9  9/2/12:
Pletcher is making things a little difficult because he has two horses cross entered and we won't know which is running where until post time. The only thing I can do is include both in the Sapling and the Hopeful so I hope we don't have some confusion.

As you know I am going to pick them by pedigree rather than performance so I may have something on top that doesn't figure as well as some of the others.

Pletcher has Overanalyze and Lawn Man cross entered in addition to having Drum Roll in this race and Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful. I understand he has about 120 2 yr. olds so he's loaded for bear. It seems that most of his youngsters score in their first start so he sure has them fired up.

He may be longer odds than his stable mate but I like the pedigree of Drum Roll over the others.
Lawn Man is well bred but he's one that I think will not get the Derby distance but will do well till that point.
Lucci the Lion, although a NY bred, has a really nice pedigree and may make an impression despite his low speed number.
Tap and Trade is a KY invader who is nicely bred and looks to be coming up to a big race. He showed a lot of improvement in his last and I think he will move forward off that one.
1- Drum Roll
2- Lawn Man
3- Overanalyze
4- Lucci the Lion
5- Tap and Trade

The Hopeful
SAR  R9  9/3/12:
This looks to be a better field than the Sapling and has more possiblities because there are some really well bred youngsters in here.

Bern Identity is probably going to be the favorite off his win in the Sanford plus having Ramon on his back. He's nicely bred even though I'm not in love with his type pedigree  he could be a good one.
Breen has another nice one in Vegas No Show who is cutting back in distance and may be coming at the end.

Shanghai Bobby looks to be the best of Pletcher's entries and I suppose Rosie is sticking with this one more out of keeping her connections than preferring the horse.
As far as Pletcher's other two, Overanalyze and Lawn Man I think either would have a better shot in the Sapling.

Asmussen usually has a few nice ones and Show Some Magic took a few starts to get his maiden win but could be a contender.

Lukas likes to throw maidens against winners for some reason or other and even though Royal Art has a nice pedigree I don't think he's ready for these yet.

Majestic Hussar blew them away in his only start in the slop and could win some more in sprints but I'm not too keen on him down the line when they start stretching out.

Fortify has a pedigree that I just love. I think he's bred to run all day in addition to having speed. He's one of a few that is running without lasix and I'm hoping he can prove that good ones don't need it. Bravo doesn't ride a lot of Mc Laughlin's horses but does well when he does get the mount. I know Jersey Joe isn't ranked up there with the top NY jocks but when he has a good horse he pulls off a lot of upsets. I think he is very under rated and doesn't get bet the way he should when in NY.

1- Fortify
2- Shanghai Bobby
3- Bern Identity
4- Show Some Magic
5- Lawn Man

Good Luck,
Backstretch

RECAP
A few scratches in the Sapling left nothing much in there. Brave Dave shot out to the lead and set some fast fractions but nobody could close on him in spite of the last 1/4 being relatively slow. I wasn't impressed by this race.

It was a nice field in the Hopeful and Bobby proved to be much the best making him 3 for 3. Looks like he may be a real good one but I think he will have distance limitations come derby time. Even though Fortify couldn't catch the winner I wonder what will happen when the others run without lasix as he does. I think we will hear more from Fortify in the future.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 33 Recap

Newsletter # 33  Sat.  8/25/12

The Travers  Sar R12

With all the leading 3 yr old contenders having been injured, sick or retired, this years race looks to be a battle of the survivors, none of which has been really impressive. Seems unlikely that the Travers would only have one G1 winner,Liaison, in it but it is what it is.

Alpha, the favorite, has been handled nicely by always picking his spots and it still seems to be working well because, as I said, there's nothing in here that's been impressive. He may win this race on form alone but I am still waiting to see one with his type of pedigree get the 1 1/4 distance on top so I will go against him here. If he wins, he wins, but until he does I will still buck those type pedigrees.

There are 5 in here that have pedigrees I like but none has yet to race to their potential.
Speightscity has a very nice pedigree, although I just read that there's no way he can get the distance because of his sire. I just don't understand these experts that base their opinion of a horse's distance ability solely on the sire. This same "Expert" also said Alpha can get any distance based on his sire.
Speightscity has been badly mishandled all year and jumping into this race off a 6 mo. layoff because of an injury seems to be an indication of more crazy training. They intend to send him to the front and see how far he will go which may put some pace in the race if nothing else.

Street Life has a decent pedigree and is in the hands of a very good trainer. He looks to want a distance but is going to have to be more involved early to be effective and I don't know if he's up to it.

Atigun is well bred but the only race he showed something was the Belmont and that race usually produces some flukey results. I am however discounting the Jim Dandy race because I feel that race was stolen by Alpha by being allowed to set a snail's pace on a sloppy track. In that race Atigun was held way off that slow pace and had no chance to gain.

Liaison has a nice pedigree and is the only G1 winner in the race which he won as a 2yr old. They were always high on him but he just couldn't put it all together for some reason even though trained by Baffert. He gained ground and finished strong in the J. Dandy slow walk in his first over the track. They didn't ship him back to CA so he has had a couple works here and Bejarano flies in for this. I think he will get a piece and could actually win it all.

Nonios doesn't have my kind of pedigree but off performance I think he's the one that should be the chalk. None of these has run as well as he did chasing Paynter in the Haskell. I think Paynter is the best 3 yr old out there and would be 2/5 in this race. Nonios chased him and hung in very well. Another plus is that he gets JR in the saddle. He showed he can run close up and stay so I don't think he will let anyone steal this.

I really love the pedigree of Fast Falcon. This is a lightly raced colt and he hasn't shown any big numbers yet but I feel the potential is there. In the Jim Dandy he made a nice move turning for home and got within striking distance of the leaders but then backed down. I kind of think this was a combination of being a little short on condition and with the slow pace nobody was going to catch the two leaders anyway. I can't discount him because of one oddball race and I have seen Zito score with many a bomb over the years. Also, not that Rosie isn't a good jock, I think that Junior is a little better and may improve his chances. I'm going to take a big chance with this one and shoot for the moon.

I don't think much of the rest even though this is a wide open race.

1- Fast Falcon
2- Nonios
3- Liaison
4- Atigun
Longshots- Street Life, Speightscity


RECAP

I think this race actually had a pretty soft pace and everyone knew that the two leaders wouldn't stay no matter how slow they went. Alpha and Golden Ticket were sitting 3rd and 4th in perfect stalking positions where they wern't being used at all. When the two up front quit they were in perfect position to take over. Being that they had an easy time of it they had plenty left for the drive.

The most impressive horse was Fast Falcon. The far outside post really hurt him because he had to drop back to last to get over or be hung out to dry around the turn.

In addition to having to drop back to dead last because of the bad post, this is what junior had to say after the race;

"All of a sudden by the three-eighths pole (Street Life) just stopped in front of me when I thought he was going to start to kick up," said Junior Alvarado, rider of Fast Falcon. "So, I had to move up, check a little bit and move outside. He started to pick it up again, but I'm sure that's what cost me the race."

I really didn't think Alpha could get the distance but being that the race was so ordinary I'm really not that surprised. Looking into the future, I feel that Fast Falcon is a horse to be reckoned with before the year is out. He has one of the very best pedigrees I've seen all year and, not having raced as a 2yr old, I think he is a late bloomer who is just coming into his own. I'm hoping to see him in the JGC next.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 30 8/4/12 Recap

Newsletter # 30 Sat. 8/4/12

MNR R1  MNR Juvenile
The reason I'm looking at this race is that I'm interested to see what Circle Unbroken does. I won't be betting because he will be very short odds but I want to see how much potential he has. I like his breeding and think he will handle more distance later on in the 2 yr old stakes. It's possible he could be a factor when the breeders Cup rolls around. He beat Positively last time, although that one exited the race with an injury, and I really like Postively's pedigree. We will just have to wait and see if Circle can handle the likes of the colts that will be contesting the stakes at the spa.

This race is a little unusual in that there are 3 geldings in here. We normally don't see 2 yr old geldings in thse type races and if any turn out to be good it means they will keep racing rather than be retired at an early age.
Several in here have nice pedigrees but only a couple have shown ability at this point but one never knows with these babies because they may show sudden improvement at any time.

1- Circle Unbroken
2- Maybe So
3- Triple Cross
4- Pitch N Roll
Long shot- No Way R J

DMR R8 The Best Pal G2

Before I get into this race I want to repeat something I've said many times over the years; I don't care what the numbers say, "Only the horses know if they are going fast or slow". After every major race the pundits are always commenting about how fast or slow the pace was according to the fractions. What is considered a slow pace may actually be a fast pace and the reverse is also true. I don't care what the numbers say, I consider how the pace is contested. For instance, in the recent Haskell, everyone is saying that Gemologist was terrible and that he is finished. This is being said because he tired badly and finished up the track. I happen to think he tired because he set a very fast pace regardless of what the fractions were. Why do I say this? I heard, from one that examined the track, that, although listed as fast, the track was actually very sticky.

 Another thing I noticed was that Nakatani, who is an excellent judge of pace, (see Nehro in the KY Derby) started to move on the leaders with Nonios on the backstretch in the Haskell but quickly changed his mind. I believe he thought they were going too fast and he backed off. Although no match for Paynter, he finished second. I wouldn't dismiss Gem off that race just yet.

I mention all this because in the race at hand we have a couple who were in the HOl Juv. last time and that was a race where I thought the 2 leaders were on a suicide mission. Amarish and the other horse ridden by Krigger were both determined to get the lead and neither would give an inch and they cooked one another.

In this race there are some nice pedigrees, starting with Heir Of Storm who is nicely bred but has the Mr Prospector line in the wrong positions to qualify for the classics by my standards. May be a good one up to a little more than a mile but won't get longer. Breeding says he may be a precocious one and be a contender early on. Gets lasix for this one.

Moreno has what I call a Heinz "57" pedigree which is not to my liking. May be kind of quick in sprints but I'm not looking past that. Is still a maiden.

Miss Empire is a filly taking a shot at the boys. I'm not crazy about her pedigree although it's loaded with stamina. I would think her best chances will come in much longer races.

Scherer Magic is one that I liked last time. Has a really nice pedigree and I love all that Tom Fool blood in it. He could turn out to be the best that Iowa has ever produced. I'm hoping he goes on to bigger and better things because he's also a gelding and would keep on racing if all went well.

Heir Kitty has a lovely pedigree and the only knock I have against it is that it's another with those Mr Prospector mares in the wrong slots. I like the damsire line and that could make a difference with this one.

Amarish is a well bred colt with an outcross in his pedigree. I would think that he would relish a distance but not the way he ran his last. As I said, he really got cooked last time and the best can get burned out in that manner so I think he deserves another chance, especially if he gets an uncontested lead if that's the way they want to run.

K Court, not a bad pedigree but not exactly the kind I like. He may get better with more distance.

1- Scherer Magic...hoping he's for real
2- Amarish...seems to be the speed...can bounce back but may be faint hearted.
3- Heir Of Storm...Should like this distance..1st lasix may help
4- Miss Empire..giving her a shot because she should be coming on late...stablemate may prefer turf.

Backstretch

Recap:

The Mountaineer race was a good battle between the top two with Maybe So just edging Circle Unbroken. Both may turn out to be nice colts down the road. Triple Cross was scratched so our top 3 were all in the money.

The Best Pal was a bummer for me because I was using the DRF PPs and never looked at entries which caused me to not see Know More who was on another page in the DRF.

This is not saying I would have picked him to win but he had the best pedigree by far of all that were in the race. If you recall, I'll Have Another ran second in this race last year getting beat by Creative Cause and we know the rest of the story. The kicker is that Know More has the same connections as IHA. They said they had a plan for I'll Have Another last year and followed it and probably will get the 3yr old of the year award.
I also read that they think Know More is the best one they have this year so they may have a plan for him also. There have been some really good horses that have won this race in the past so I'm forced to think that Know More will be one of the leading contenders heading to the Triple Crown next year.

Miller had 2 fillies in here and they ran 2nd and 3rd with Miss Empire stumbling at the start forcing her to come a long way to get up for the show. She should relish a longer distance and I think she should be a major factor with the girls later on.

As a side note, Strong Wind, who dueled with Amarish in their previous race came back to win a minor stake wire to wire while Amarish folded again in this race. Amarish is nicely bred but seems to be really faint hearted. Of course, the pace in this race may have been a tad fast but the runnerup filly stayed on well so I don't think the top two choices in this race, Scherer Magic and Amarish, can handle a quick pace.

Lookin At Lucky and Dixie Union were also winners of this race so perhaps history will be repeated.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 29 Sat. 7/28/12 Recap

Newsletter # 29  Sat. 7/28/12

Jim Dandy Stakes
Saratoga R 10 7/28/12

I had several of these on my early KY Derby list but they just couldn't run to their potential. It looks like, although some are nice horses, they are not on a par with some who have run much better to date. I feel that by the time they have run 10 races they have given a pretty good indication of what they can do. There are some that keep maturing and don't come into their own until their 4 yr old season but as of now we can only go by what we have seen of them.

This looks to be a much better betting race than the Haskell because there looks to be more contenders. In fact, this race could be up for grabs so I would be looking for some real value in my bets.
Every horse in here has a nice pedigree and it's difficult to seperate them by breeding except for one that I think has an outstanding pedigree, especially for the classic distances of 1 1/4 and more.

Taken in order;
Alpha is a nice horse but, for the same reasons as Hansen, I always had big doubts about him getting a classic distance. And, like Hansen, I think 1 1/8 is stretching it a little unless he gets a perfect trip. In this race he has a chance because there are only a few who have had any success at all at this distance. He gets Ramon which is a big plus and he draws the rail. Should be the chalk but I think he can be beat.

Fast Falcon has one of the very best pedigrees I've seen all year. Looks like he's bred to run all the way to Hosh Kosh and back. He has improved with every race and I don't think he has come close to his best yet. He's only had 5 races and if he improves again in conjunction with the added distance he can take this race. I like his running style and it looks like he can stay within striking distance of a fast pace. I know I'm going out on a limb here and may get egg on my face but one doesn't make money in this game by betting what is obvious and everyone else sees. I'm really excited about this one and if he should run big I look forward to a showdown in the Travers between him and Paynter.

Atigun is a nice horse and I picked him in the money in the Belmont. My problem with him is I just don't think he's quite fast enough. I know he looked good in the Belmont but in my opinion that race was an aberration in that Paynter slowed the pace down way too much. That race could have gone at least a second or two faster.

Neck 'n Neck's last two seem to be a huge improvement speed wise over his previous races. I don't know what he faced but am thinking it wasn't much. He's not been too far behind a couple good ones but he could be around at the finish if his last two were for real. Never been too keen on his pedigree.

My Adonis is nicely bred and I took a long look at him in several races but he hasn't shown any ability to close and seems too weak on the front end. He should be up on the pace here and might at least make for an honest pace.

Teeth Of The Dog has a decent pedigree and has some speed but I don't think he wants more than 1 1/16. He did run third against Gem but the ones he beat in that race weren't much.

Liaison has a very nice pedigree and was highly regarded last year but went bad for some reason. Of course he was meeting the best and couldn't handle them but Baffert looks to have him back on track and I think he will be a factor in here.

Prospective is a nicely bred inbred horse who has been very consistent. He was very game in theTampa Derby but he really hasn't shown he can compete against the top of the line horses. Has handled this distance but only beat a few much lesser horses.

!- Fast Falcon
2- Liaison
3- Alpha
4- Teeth Of The Dog

The Haskell

MTH R 13 SUN. 7/29/12

Even though this is an important race I'm not going to dwell on it much because I see no value. It will be an interesting race to watch but not one to bet on unless you happen to be a chalk eater.

They all have nice pedigrees but as far as that goes I think Paynter has the best breeding. I had said in an earlier blog that I thought he was better than Bodemeister but I think Bode will be better at stud.
The only question I have is if anyone will be able to run down Paynter. I think he should have won the Belmont with ease but Smith failed, in addition to leaving a hole for Rags, to take advantage of the superior pace ability of Paynter. Speed is useless unless one uses it and he slowed the pace way too much and failed to make the others work to keep up. JMO of course.

I was very high on Gemologist and Dullahan early in the year and still think they are really good horses. I thought one of the best runs I saw all year was Dullahan running down Hansen in the Bluegrass. In the Belmont he was sitting alongside Rags on the backstretch and it looked to me that JJ wanted to be off the pace more and took him back. Big mistake with the pace being as slow as it was.

I liked Gem in the derby and don't know what happened to him. They say he suffered an injury and that could very well be. If he's in top shape he will be tough.

1- Paynter
2- Gemologist
3- Dullahan
4- Nonios
Recap

Well. I'm still wiping egg off my face. I guess I was wrong about Fast Falcon in the Jim Dandy, but having said that, I really don't think this race proved anything.
Alpha got an easy lead on a sloppy track and the race was over as soon as it started. I expected My Adonis to show some early run as he usually does but that was not to be. There have been so many races where there is no more than one horse with quality speed and that horse is able to steal away to an easy uncontested lead. At least in the Haskell we had a real horse race and Paynter showed he's in a league of his own. If he goes in the Travers I think it would be his race to lose as I don't feel that Alpha will get close to him.

I am willing to throw out races in the slop, especially if a speed horse gets an uncontested lead. Saw way too many of those type races in the last 60 yrs. to be taken in by the winners of those. I still think Fast Falcon is a good one but may need a little more seasoning.

I'll probably be doing the Best Pal at DMR next week as that's a graded race for 2 yr olds. See you then.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 28 Sat. 7/22/12 Recap

Newsletter # 28  Sat. 7/21/12

The Sanford

SAR  R9  Sun.  7/22/12

Before getting to the race I wanted to mention a report I read. According to the item, a bunch of prominent horses owners say they plan to race their 2 yr olds without lasix this year. I don't know what the final ruling was from the Breeders Cup but they were supposed to have a rule in place regarding 2 yr olds racing without lasix this year.

There are a lot of pros and cons on this issue with some good arguments on both sides but personally I would like to see lasix phased out. Maybe it's because I've been around so long and played the races long before lasix was used but I just don't seem to remember that many bleeders.

I happen to think that using lasix, which is a diuretic, has some bad effects over the long haul by leeching out calcium and other minerals from the body which can weaken the bones. I suppose it is a good thing that it prevents bleeding from the lungs but my question is, why is it given to 95% of all horses before they have even had a race? Is every horse a bleeder to the extent that it affects their racing ability?

Now to the race at hand; It seems like every year there are a lot of pedigrees with different approaches. By that, I mean that the mares are being sent to a different type stallion than has been the practise in the past. Some of these may turn out good but there aren't too many of them that fit my patterns of classic runners.
I only find a few in this race that meet my standards and they are not of my preferred type. Some of them have some excellent lines but the mares are not where I'd like to see them.

I like 4 in here and they are Hightail, John Gordon, Onetwentyeight and Rose Junction. Of these the one I like least is Hightail although they paid a small fortune for him. Maybe he hasn't done so well so far because of the trainer. Could be that Lukas hasn't kept up with the times and the question arises as to why he keeps racing a maiden against winners.

It's really hard to decide between the other three, two of which are Pletcher's horses. They both broke their maiden in handy fashion at Belmont, both were in a field of six, both were the chalk and both wired the field. Rose Junction got a higher Beyer but it was also a shorter race than Onetwentyeight. I am giving the edge to Rose Junction because, although 128 has an out cross, I like the line that Rose is crossed with and I like the position in the pedigree which I can't say for 128.

The pedigree of John Gordon is the type that has been a classic standard for quite a few years as far as the horses that influence the pedigree most. I know he was beaten by Good Tickled but I don't favor Good Tickled's pedigree nor his form cycle. JG ran a very nice race against Positively who almost won the Bashford despite trouble in the race and coming out with a shin problem. Both Positively and Circle Unbroken, the first two in the Bashford have really nice breeding and could be a cut above these. Being that JG has an equal pedigree and has ran well in all of his races he could have a little edge in experience.
1- Rose Junction....only because Pletcher usually has them all cranked up early.
2- John Gordon...getting his 4th different jockey but I'll leave that up to Dale.
3- Onetwentyeight...wouldn't be a big surprise to see Pletch run 1-2
4- Bern Identity...has some real stamina horses in his pedigree but a little mixed up for my taste but if it clicks he could be a real good one.
Long Shot- Hightail
Good Luck,
Backstretch

Recap

This race was a lot like the Hollywood Juvenile last week when the leaders ran each other into the ground.
Bern Identity got a lot of action and went off as the favorite. He got a perfect trip sitting just off the speed and Caught Handsome Jack near the wire but I thought Handsome Jack showed a lot of guts by dueling all the way with 2 others and putting them away. Looking at the pace in the race and the way Jack hung in I think he was probably best in this race.
The closers kind of had it set up for them with the torrid pace but the only one close enough to be able to catch the leader was the winner.
Onetwentyeight showed good energy at the end and was closing fast. I didn't like the ride on John Gordon at all. He actually broke on top but Garcia immediately grabbed hold of him and took him way back to the rear where he had no chance to get into the race. Maybe he just wasn't fast enough to keep up but I'll be watching to see what he does in his next race.
We've had 2 graded races for 2 yr olds and in both races the pace was fast and the leaders buried themselves. Both races were sprints and with the leaders killing each other I don't think we can make a case for any of them yet. I think we will just have to wait for some longer distance races to sort them out a little. Handsome Jack did impress me a little, but as far as going to the classics, I don't think he's bred to handle the longer distances. We do have the BC Sprint that may showcase a few of these but I'm looking for those derby type horses and will know a lot more by the time the BC rolls around.
Backstretch

Newsletter # 27 Sat. 7/14/12 Recap

Newsletter # 27  Sat. 7/14/12

Before getting to this week's race, a word about the young horses. We tend to have a few different groups of 2 yr olds each year. They are different because of their age and degree of maturity. There are the foals that are dropped early in the year and the later ones in April or later. In addition to the early foals some are more precocious than others and these early ones tend to dominate the early races.

There are those that get a later start and don't get rolling until early in the next year or some have a start or two and are injured and given time off. We also have some that are really late getting started and don't have a chance to run until they are 3 yr olds.

What this means is that the horses that look really good early on and even in the BC may not be so good when the others have a chance to catch up. This situation suggests that one shouldn't get overly enthused about the early winners. It's a long way to the Triple Crown preps and the big races themselves.

Another thing I want to mention is that I will only be writing about 2 and 3 yr old stakes races. By the time horses are 4 yrs old their ability has pretty well been established and the races for older horses may just as well be tackled by other handicapping methods. I will be covering the 2 and 3 yr old stakes only, which means there may be a week here and there that there will be no race to cover and in that case I will just write about some of my thoughts on handicapping or pedigrees.

Hollywood Juvenile Championship G3  Race 2  Sat. 7/14/12

This is only a sprint but there have been a few very good horses such as Dixie Union that have won this one. There are a few nice pedigrees in here and a couple that are a little unusual because they have several out-crosses in them, not the run of the mill types.

The first one I like is the favorite, Amarish. A really nice bred colt with an out-cross top and bottom. Has had 2 races and won them both in nice fashion. Hard to buck this one.

Scherer Magic is another with a double dose of out-cross and an inbred family. He was entered in a claiming race in his only start and was claimed. Would seem to be making a big jump here from claiming to graded stakes but it's not like this hasn't been done before. Blew them away under a hand ride and could be a good one. The only knock I have against him is he's only had one race and these sometimes bounce in their next
.
Strong Wind is a state bred but his pedigree suggests that he can run all day and then some. State bred to graded stake is quite a jump but these are 2 yr olds and it will take some time to find out how good or bad they are. I'll give this guy a shot down the road.

Just Call Me Al has a pedigree of a type that is quite common to some very good runners. He may be a tad below these at this point but could be heard from later.

Confederate Recon has classic type breeding that I really like. He was beaten by Carson's Crown in his last but got off to a bad start which usually spells curtains in a 5f sprint. I think he will appreciate the extra furlong.
Carson's Crown has some champions in his pedigree but I just don't care for the alignment of the females. May be a good one but one that eludes me.

Dirty Swagg is one that I can't quite get a handle on his pedigree. He might be a good one but since it's not clear cut to me I'll pass on him for now.

1- Amarish
2- Scherer Magic
3- Confederate Recon
4- Just Call Me Al
Longshot- Strong Wind

Recap
I don't know what those jocks were thinking but Maldonado on Amarish and Krigger on Strong Wind were both determined to get the lead and ran each other into the ground. Actually, after a 1/4 Krigger was sitting nicely on Amarish's flank in a good stalking position but for some reason decided to go for the lead with about a 1/2 left to run. They hit the stretch head and head and Amirish quit but Strong Wind kept on and managed to hold on for 4th. Confederate Recon chased the leaders for a 1/2 but couldn't stay with them.

Result-
1- Scherer Magic
2- Carson's Crown
3- Just Call Me Al
4- Strong Wind

I wouldn't discount Amarish and Strong Wind off this race because, even though the fractions didn't look all that fast, I think it was a suicidal pace and they could both bounce right back.
It could be that the fast pace set it up for the top two;

Scherer Magic, the winner, was claimed out of his debut for 50 Gs and Gary Barber, the owner, picked him out. Pretty ballsy claim being that he's an Iowa bred and a gelding at that. I don't know if he had seen the horse working or if, like me, he just loved his pedigree. Sadler said Gary is a riverboat gambler and not afraid to go with his gut. He's supposed to have been nominated on Sun. to the BC so hopefully we'll see a lot more of him in the future.

Sadler's other entry, Carson's Crown ran a nice race to get second but I still have doubts about his long distance ability but he may very well prove me wrong. Sometimes I just can't get a good read on a pedigree and they really fool me.

No 2 yr old stakes coming up for a time but I will still be looking at the 3 yr olds. The Haskell is looking to be a contentious race, especially with Bodemeister out. We might see a latecomer step up to the plate and they may also enter Hansen.
Till next time,
Backstretch

Newsletter # 25 Recap

　

Newsletter # 25 Sat. 6/30/12

　

Bashford Manor Gr. 3 CD R6

This is the first graded stakes for 2 yr olds this year but will have no bearing on the KY Derby because they are not counting earnings this year, nor are they counting sprint races.

What we can look forward to is the Breeders Cup and how things develop in the early races. Even at this early stage I am looking at pedigrees to determine which ones have the potential to get the classic distances. There will be some horses that will look quite brilliant early on but will have trouble getting the longer distances. Many of these early stars will be the precocious type but will run into trouble later in the year and into next year when the slower maturing ones catch up.

This is only a grade 3 sprint but there are several in here with very nice pedigrees that could carry them a long way. Some may not be around by Breeders Cup time but on the other hand, we never know when a star will appear.

There are four in this race with fairly nice classic breeding but I'm leaning towards Positively and Roman's Avenue. The other two are Circle Unbroken and Go Jack Go. Special Jo was kind of expensive and blew them away in his first start but I'm looking at him as a sprinter. He may be good at a mile or so but I can't see him getting the longer distances.

I didn't think Hansen could get the longer distances last year but he did manage to win the BC. A lot of them look like stars until they have to get the derby distance but I will only be concentrating on those with distance potential.

All but one of these has won their last race so it looks to be a very contentious race and since it's only a sprint there's nothing to separate the men from the boys except speed. Special Jo will probably be the chalk considering the way he buried them in his first try. These babies can show some huge improvement race to race so I like to buck the odds and hope for a big upset of sorts.

1- Positively....has a super nice pedigree and looks to be bred to run all day...showed big improvement in second start and I expect to see him move forward off that one.

2- Roman's Avenue...another classic pedigree and looks to be speedy...Romans is high on this one and should make his presence felt.

3- Circle Unbroken...another with good distance potential in his pedigree...should like the extra little bit of distance.

4- Special Jo...his breeding doesn't tell me he will handle the classic distances but this is only a 6f sprint so he could very well win on speed alone.

Long Shot- Go Jack Go...has a lot of stamina on the dam side and should be good over a distance of ground...may be a little slow for these right now but I'm keeping my eye on him

Recap

Result;

1st.....Circle Unbroken

2nd....Positively

3rd.....Special Jo

Circle Unbroken sat just off the pace and had a nice trip splitting horses in the stretch. Positively was squeezed at the start and dropped back to last, started a long run after a quarter, reached contention in the stretch but couldn't get to the winner. He was running sort of erratically in the stretch and was bearing in and I thought he was having a problem. I later read a Twitter that said Positively had shin problems and would be out of action until the fall.

Both horses have really nice pedigrees and I expect to hear from them down the road in the longer distance races.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 20 RECAP

Newsletter # 20- Sat. 5/19/12


Pimlico  R12  The Preakness


Maybe this race should be called the Storm Cat Stakes. We have four horses in here, Tiger Walk, Teeth Of The Dog, Pretension and Creative Cause, that are sired by sons of Storm Cat, and in addition, Bodemeister is out of a Storm Cat mare.

However, this doesn't mean that I like all of their pedigrees. Of all the Storm Cat horses in here I only like the pedigrees of Bodmeister and Creative Cause. Bode has a pretty straight forward pedigree in that he's really inbred to the Nearco line of horses which an awful lot of our good horses are, especially when there is a Raise A Native sire line.

As I wrote last year concerning Animal Kingdom, I feel it is about time to start out crossing all these inbred horses as Animal Kingdom was. We have 3 in here that have been crossed with a non-Phalaris line.

Creative Cause's maternal G. Dam was sired by the Man O' War line and his dam was brought back to the Nearco lines which makes for a nice re-cross, as I call it. I like these kind of horses because they have Hybrid Vigor and are usually very tough individuals.

Went The Day Well is an out-crossed horse but there's not much inbreeding to begin with. I really like to see totally inbred horses out crossed. This is another crossed with the Man O'War line. Some of these are good like these two and Gemologist but I like to see the inbreds crossed with something like a foreign line.

I'll Have Another has the type of breeding that I love. His dam is the result of a cross of the Ribot sire line and an inbred Nearco line and his dam is bred right back to a sire that's inbred to Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector and everything is in perfect alignment. I personally feel this horse has unlimited potential.

Bode will probably be the chalk again but unless they do something to soup up the track I think he will lose. He set a very fast pace in the derby on a track that was extremely speed biased and I'll Have Another was only a few lengths back after 3/4 and finished full of run. There were 3 others that came within a length of catching Bode so the finish was actually pretty close.

I think they will try to slow Bode down a little this time but that will put a few horses well within striking range. Also, there won't be a huge field to run interference for the leader. Bode may try to wire them again but I'm bucking him. Not that I think he can't get the distance but I think he has run his best races on very speed favoring tracks and if the track is fair I think he's in trouble.

1- I'll Have Another
2- Creative Cause
3- Went The Day Well
4- Bodemeister

Backstretch


RECAP

It seems like we all look at races differently. Bode went too fast early in the Derby and some of those same people say he went too slow early in the Preakness. All I know is that I'll Have Another beat Bode on a super highway and then beat him on a dirt road.

I found an article that caught my eye because the writer picked the Preakness exactly as I did. The writer is much better than I am when it comes to presenting a point but if I were to write all that I thought about the race it would be almost exactly as he has written so I suggest you read it.

Since I despise Beyers figures I was especially interested in his research in regards to actual times. I want to thank him for saving me a ton of work so I may concentrate on my pedigree work.

  http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime

Now to the Belmont where I think we will see a TC winner. The Belmont has had spoilers in the past and it's sometimes been a newcomer. I am thinking there is a possibility that Baffert could exact his revenge in this race with Paynter. I just love his pedigree and will discuss it more in my newsletter for the Belmont.

Newsletter # 19 Recap

Newsletter # 19 - Sat. 5/12/12

Belmont  R9  Peter Pan

This race is supposed to be a prep for the Belmont, and even though there have been Belmont winners that were late comers, I don't see any of these as being any kind of threat.

A couple of them, Zetterholm and Teeth Of The Dog, have defected to have a go at the Preakness. Mighty ambitious on their part I am thinking.

I usually handicap these races by pedigree and there have been quite a few races where I've had a lot of trouble making up my mind because there were so many with really nice pedigrees. However, this race has nothing that impresses me and I don't see any of them getting the Belmont distance, especially against the kind of horses that will be running in it.

Except for Good Morning Diva and Summer Front the pedigrees are mostly of the "Heinz 57" type. Diva does have a nice pedigree but so far has looked to be distance challenged. He didn't have a chance in the Swale because Trinniberg just ran everyone off their feet. Came back and won a two turn race but one that was taken off the grass and I never put much stock in those races. His only chance is if he can be rated off the pace and that is probably what Leparoux will try to do.

Summer Front has a fairly nice pedigree but might be better suited for the turf. Ran second in the Lexington last time but was beaten by a 70/1 shot and couldn't make any headway against the winner in the stretch. Overall, there wasn't much in that race to begin with.

This race has a lot of speed in it and Lumber Guy looks like the one that can carry his speed better than the rest. He had good speed into the stretch in the Wood and came back to wire them in the Jerome so he should be the one to catch, unless one of the others runs with him to take some of the starch out of him.

Mark Valeski has enough speed to sit a stalking position and Rosie should get good position from the 4 hole. Has run a couple of good ones but couldn't catch that 100/1 shot in the LA Derby so maybe has trouble finishing them off.

Summer Front has never tried dirt but has a work here and a lot of horses that take to dirt after running on poly come up with some big numbers. His post isn't good but Ramon sure knows his way around this track and will probably work a trip if dirt doesn't prove to be a problem.

I remember Street Life was catching some money in the Wood but couldn't gain on the leaders but I don't see a Gemologist or Alpha in here. Lumber Guy came out of that race to win the Jerome so maybe it was a better race than it looked.

Hakama had a ton of trouble in the ILL Derby and closed a ton but there wasn't much in that race and it was on the slow side. Might have a chance with JR in the saddle.

1- Summer Front

2- Mark Valeski

3- Lumber Guy

4- Street Life

Pedigree long shot- Good Morning Diva

Out of the clouds- Hakama

Good Luck,
Backstretch


RECAP

We weren't too far off and if I hadn't thought that Lumber Guy would get the lead we might have done a lot better. Summer Front didn't get a good trip and also indicated he better stay on the weeds. Street Life put in a decent run and our pedigree long shot got up to make a nice super.

The race actually went pretty much the way it looked with Mark Valeski getting a good stalking trip to catch the leader.

Now for the part that tickles me and that concerns horses racing on the lead. I, along with most others made a mistake in failing to realize that Right To Vote showed really good speed in the Champagne last year against Rags and Alpha as A 2 YR OLD. The horse had to mature in those 7 months and should surely improve his speed ability. Big boo-boo on my part but here is the part that most all pace handicappers and track announcers fail to grasp. A horse can run a 45 1/2 and a 1:09 3/4 and be running very easily, as this horse was doing. At other times a horse can do a 1/2 in 47 and 3/4 in 1:12 and be hard pressed to get that and fold up in the lane.

As handicappers, some seem to think they know how fast or slow a horse should be going but only the horse knows if it's going too fast or too slow.

I'd like to use car racing as an analogy and I know I have one reader who will appreciate this, right Doc? Since I built and raced stock cars off and on for about 30 years I know a little bit about it. I will use NASCAR as an example.

First of all, most everything from engine power to the set-up is dependent upon factors like the ambient air temperature, humidity, wind, track surface, distance of the race and tire compounds. The difference in engine power between these cars is not very drastic but can vary between cars from race to race. Differences in fuel set-up and camshaft configuration will be affected by the fact that cooler air is denser and can carry a heavier fuel and air mixture. According to each cars individual set-up the power can be a little different between them because of atmospheric conditions.

Road racing aside, all tracks have two turns and each turn has an apex that is conducive to the highest possible speed through the turn. If there are 10 tracks there would be 20 different apexes to try to hit. If the car doesn't have the right set-up for a particular turn it wouldn't be able to hit the desired apex and would lose speed through the turn.

So what is a set-up? Every tire has a maximum adhesion factor and the object is to come as close to it as possible without breaking traction and it's a very fine line to walk. The tire breaks loose when the centrifugal
forces overcome the adhesion factor of the tire. This is normally caused by too much weight on that particular tire. Contrary to what a lot of people think, weight doesn't cause a tire to stick to the road in a turn but just the opposite. Of course, in the case of tire rotation or spin, weight on it is an advantage.

Weight on the tire in turns is controlled by spring rates and tire pressures for the most part. When you see the crew taking a turn on the traction bar they are actually adjusting weight. To sum this up because I don't want to write a book here, the car and how well it races is almost totally dependent upon how the tires stick to the track

One might ask, how much difference can there be in asphalt tracks? And the answer might be, plenty. The track surface can be affected by the sub surface, the composition of the asphalt on that track, the temperature of the product when laid down, the type of equipment used to put it down, the configuration of the track, the banking and a whole host of variables.

These track factors apply to horse racing tracks in spades. They are all different in just about every aspect and the horses are even more different. We have horses that weigh between 800 and 1,400 lbs with many different sizes and shapes of hoofs. Wouldn't you assume that a 1,400 lb horse with a small foot would naturally sink deeper than a 900 pound-er with a bigger foot? Some tracks are such that the hoof goes into the track and sinks deeply where other tracks have less cushion and the hoof finds firm footing just below the surface. Just as each week we find that some NASCAR cars have the perfect set-up for the track the others are off the mark in varying degrees, there are horses that by their size and action, have the perfect set-up for a particular track on certain days.

There can be and are situations that fit a horse to a "T" while a different type horse struggles on it. Even though speed handicappers make up track variants to try to judge how much a track is off from par these variants are based on averages. All horses in a race are not average and sometimes a track feels very good to a horse that may be far from average in a lot of aspects but the other horses in the race hate it. A track may suit a horse with a short choppy action while the long striding horse is slipping and sliding beneath the surface. There are many other variables that are too numerous to count in this little space but I'm sure you get my point and will be able to come up with a few of your own.

It is for these reasons that I find it kind of laughable when I hear handicappers talk about the speed or quickness of the pace of a race. A horse may be running very easily and just gliding over the track and rip very quick fractions while others in the race are struggling. At other times the fractions may be slow but no horse seems able to sustain it's speed.

I am interested in speed horses to the extent of where they are positioned most of the time not the fractions they run. Sometimes a track is like a conveyor belt to some front running horses and they can go a long way before getting tired and the same horse may hit a track where he goes a much slower pace but still is not able to carry his speed very far.

Horses with different styles or set-ups require different conditions than others and the situation can be reversed time and time again. Just My Opinion!

Backstretch

Newsletter # 18 Recap

Newsletter # 18- Sat. 5/5/12

CD  R    Kentucky Derby

Well, it's finally here but I don't know if we're any closer to answers as we were a few months ago. A lot of horses have been eliminated because of lack of earnings and others fell by the wayside for one reason or another.

I suppose most have almost decided on who will be their play but are still looking around for some confirmation while others have their mind made up and nothing anybody says will change it. I'm not here to try to change anyone's mind but maybe I might cover something not thought about previously.

As you know my primary method of handicapping the Derby is through pedigrees but this year presents a problem with that. Horses that have pedigrees that contain my common denominaters are those I will refer to as having classic pedigrees and 75% of this field qualify. We must remember that just because a horse has a classic pedigree doesn't mean it's a winner. There were many with classic pedigrees this year that didn't do much but almost all the good ones qualify.

I have decided to just go through the field one by one and tell you what I think. I'll go by post position order.

1- Daddy Long Legs.....has a classic pedigree but has a few strikes against him. Draws the dreaded 1 hole, is being shipped here from over the pond and O' Brien doesn't even give them a work here and has a poor record in this race. He did win his last in nice fashion in a G2 and has run closer to the derby distance than any of them. Too bad O' Brien operates as he does with this race.

2- Optimizer....no classic pedigree and seems to be too slow...runs a good one on occasion

3- Take Charge Indy....I'm a little up in the air with this one...has a lot of nice horses in his pedigree but I just don't like the alignment of the mares...has the right ones but in the wrong spots to exert their influence...nice race in the FL Derby but I'm thinking he stole that one...will probably get bet because of Calvin..

4- Union Rags....nice pedigree being inbred to Nearco and having a son of Mr prospector as damsire...seems to find an excuse sometimes but has never run a bad one...has a jock riding in great form..

5- Dullahan....very nice pedigree and I've liked him all year...In my opinion he ran the standout race of the year in the Bluegrass by running down Hansen...it's very difficult to catch a quality runner who gets loose on the lead even though I think Hansen has a problem over 1 1/16...Dullahan made a long run to catch him and was just shifting into another gear in the stretch...very impressive to me.

6- Bodemeister...he may not have that much influence on the race itself but certainly makes one's head spin when thinking of the different possibilities...the big question in my mind is, is he for real...classic type of Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector pedigree and has run well in all of his races...of course his Beyer figure has impressed all that are believers in Beyer's numbers and I think that will make him the chalk here...my take on him is that he's a real nice horse but I'm not all that impressed with his win in the ARK Derby...in that race he had an uncontested lead and was never pressured...seems to me the only other horse in that race that has shown ability was Secret Circle who had already beaten most of them twice...in addition, Secret Circle looked to be regressing and had developed some kind of problem which has now put him on the sidelines for awhile...so, it's my feeling that Bode beat nothing at all in that race....I have seen a ton of horses that get loose on the lead and run a big number but they don't do it when meeting stiff competition...I also don't like his form cycle and think he will regress off that race...another point is that I don't recall any horses that ran well at OP doing well elsewhere and though I'm not a fan of speed figures, the numbers at OP this year seem to be kind of inflated...so, unless he's one of those freaky kind of horses I don't think he will be there at the finish but just in case I will probably bet a saver or two with him.

7- Rousing Sermon...don't care for his pedigree and seems to be too slow although this type... sometimes picks up the pieces if the race falls apart totally.

8- Creative Cause...a very interesting horse pedigree wise... his dam was the result of an outcross with the Nearco and Man O'War lines and he is a result of breeding back to the Nearco line..this is an F1 out cross which usually produces horses with Hybrid Vigor who are normally rugged individuals...he has never run a bad race or been out of the money so I see no reason to think he won't be around at the finish...I also like his dosage with 23 Classic points...tough to leave him out..

9- Trinniberg...doesn't look to have classic breeding and has never been a distance...has a high turn of speed which is always dangerous but I don't think he will go uncontested on the lead..

10- Daddy Nose Best...his pedigree has the right sire lines but I don't like the alignment of them..every other one is of the Nearco or Native Dancer lines, which is great but even though I don't like their placement he still has nice bloodlines...has won 2 in a row and is sitting on another big race...Asmussen usually has them primed up...Leparoux had commited to Rags so it's not like he's jumping ship...gets Gomez which won't hurt.

11- Alpha...this one has conflicting points in a couple of areas...pedigree wise he has those Mr Prospector mares where stamina mares should be and that puts him in with Hansen and Reveron in not being able to get the distance...on the other hand his damsire is a son of Northern Dancer which is a stong distance plus..can he or can't he?..he made a strong move in the stretch run of the Wood but couldn't sustain it and was losing ground at the wire...another point is that Ramon seemed like he couldn't make up his mind between Alpha and Hansen and finally went to Hansen...this horse leaves me with some doubts.

12- Prospective...this one is virtually a total inbred to the Nearco lines and has a bit of the very best ones...classic breeding of the type that is fairly common nowadays..didn't run all that bad in the Bluegrass and was very game in the Tampa Derby....usually runs a good race but may be up against it here.

13- Went The Day Well....nice pedigree...this is another out cross of the Nearco and Man O'war lines but I prefer to see a little more inbreeding to the Nearco line...terrific trainer and JR may have made a really good move hooking up with these connections...not quite as good a pedigree as Animal Kingdom but I like his performances so far...he's the only one in here that has really drawn away from the field at 1 1/8...many times horses that run a good number on poly can really put up a huge number on dirt if they take to it and this one has shown a liking for dirt down at GP...not really a deep closer and if JR can work a trip he could be very dangerous.

14- Hansen...we know he's very speedy but can also be rank...I think 1 1/8 is his limit and that's a stretch...I think the owner is making a big mistake with this horse because I feel he could be a brilliant miler...don't think he can hang in here even with a stalking trip.

15- Gemologist...a really good out cross pedigree with the sire line being of the Man O'War line...I also like the Northern Dancer/Olympia cross in the 3rd and 4th generations of the G. Dams on both sides...has done everything right so far and has improved his speed figures in each race at a distance...hasn't put up big numbers or won by big margins but seems to just do enough to get the job done...nary a hiccup in his program so far...I think he's sitting on a big race and we haven't seen anywhere near his best yet...if he wins this I feel he will have plenty left in the tank for the rest of the TC

16- El Padrino....another with distance limitations because of the Mr prospector mares in his pedigree...everyone was Ga-Ga over his Beyer's number in that opt claimer in FL but he was all out to beat Mark Valeski in the Risen Star...Mark is not a derby type and the rest of the field wasn't much...can't see him getting the distance.

17- Done Talking....had him on my early derby list and cashed in the ILL Derby...has a nice pedigree with the powerful Derby factor of having his dam being by a son of Northern Dancer...I know the talk is that there was nothing in the ILL race and his numbers are too low but I think he is vastly under rated...he's a very strong closer and if this race turns out to be one of those where there are 3 waves of runners he could be right up there in the final wave...Smith is a really good old time trainer and is bringing him up to this race right on edge...Russell said he worked like a machine...don't discount totally especially at 50/1 

18- Sabercat....another good classic pedigree from the Asmussen barn...was already in the derby with his D. jackpot win so there was no reason to rush him...improved in his last and is another ready to throw a big race...a deep closer who is going to find it hard to get good position from this post...although a bit slow he should be motoring at the end.

19- I'll Have Another...has a pedigree somewhat like Creative Cause...he was one of my picks that won @ 44/1 in the RB Lewis...he and Creative Cause finished on almost even terms last time which was funny to me because those 2 are the only ones with an F1 pedigree...has some speed and may be able to get position somewhere behind Gemologist being that most of the outside posts are deep closers....this horse has had lengthy layoffs between his last few races and came out running but now is being asked to come back in uander 30 days...will it hurt him?

20- Liaison...a so-so pedigree and hasn't run a good one in awhile...in his 2 wins he beat a couple very deep closers by having the jump on them...I don't see him getting the jump on anyone from this post...Raffy bailed out for El Padrino..

So, where does that leave us? I can probably make a case for at least 10 of them but you can't get too cute in a race like this. There's an awful lot of luck involved in getting a good start and a better trip.

You know of course that in the case of Bodemeister no horse has won without a start as a 2 yr old since 1892 or thereabouts. Did you also know that there has been no mare to ever foal 2 derby winners? It's possible this year with Dullahan being as he's from the same mare as Mine That Bird.

Another strong fact is that 4 of the last 12 winners was out of a mare sired by a son of Northern Dancer and we have 2 of those in the race, Alpha and Done Talking.

I know who the top 3 are that I favor but when playing the exotics there are a lot of horses that I find difficult to leave off the ticket. I may just try for an exacta and a triple because I don't feel like betting my lungs to try to cover all the bases.

1- #15  Gemologist

2- #5  Dullahan

3- #4  Union Rags

4- #13  Went The Day Well

5- #10  Daddy Nose Best

Very tough to leave out Creative Cause and I'll Have Another and a super long bomb, Done Talking.

Here's my bets; ex 4,5,15/4,5,10,13,15,.....tri  4,5,15/4,5,15/all...I'll try a dime super 4,5,15/4,5,15/4,5,10,13,15/4,5,8,10,13,15,17.......  just in case he doesn't bounce I will save with a Bode ex bx. 6/4,5,15

That's it folks..Good Luck To All

Backstretch

Recap

Hey Ma, I plum out thunk myself agin!

I had mentioned something about trying to get cute and failed to follow my own advice. There were 4 horses in here with out crossed pedigrees and I'll Have Another was the best one. He was crossed with the Ribot line which seems to be much better than crossing with the Man O' war line which the others have. Went The Day Well has the cross in the ideal position but it's with the Man O' war line as is Creative Cause. Gemologist is crossed on the sire line which I never like but because of his record I thought he might be an exception even though it was also with the Man O' War line. I think Gem had another strike against him because Pletcher, considering all the really good youngsters he's had over the years, has got to be the worst when it comes to getting a horse ready for the classic races. 

I second guessed the trainer of I'll Have Another because the horse had won his races off lengthy layoffs and was coming back in 4 weeks. That's what I mean about getting cute, a big boo-boo on my part. I wasn't concerned about the jock as many were because I had bet him many times at Hastings and if he can be the leading jock at a rough and tumble bullring I guess he can hold his own anywhere.

Another point that was drilled home was that the horses with the Mr Prospector mares in the vital positions just can't get the derby distance. There are a ton of these types around every year and I've never seen one win the derby. We had Alpha, El Padrino and Hansen with those kind of pedigrees and I had personally told Mr Hansen his horse was no derby horse and he said he was going to hold me to it after Hansen won. I don't guess I'll hear from him.

Another thing I did wrong was in the case of Bodemeister. He is very nicely bred and has shown a ton of talent but I got cute again and didn't think he could run another one like the ARK Derby race. Wrong! Sometimes one just has to take these horses at face value plus the fact he was working like a demon. I'm sure he will be retired right after the TC races because of the deal made with the new partners in him. He will be a very successful sire for the simple reason he has a pedigree that will match up with an abundance of mares out there. 

In my opinion there is always way too much talk about the sires of these horses. If you read my post about derby sires you will get my point. What makes a sire have good luck in the breeding shed is when he has a pedigree that puts the mares in proper alignment in the pedigree of the foal. There are an awful lot of mares that will match up well with Bode so he should have no problems. On the other hand, I can't think of a sire that would produce something classic with the dam of Hansen. She could throw more like Hansen but I think that's as far as they will go.

Looking to the Preakness now and there might be a couple new faces in it. Also looking down the road to the Belmont where I think Dullahan may have a good shot. He can come a long way and still be motoring at the end but needs a little help on the front end. 

Backstretch     

Newsletter # 17 Recap

Newsletter # 17  Sat. 4/28/12

CD R8  Derby Trial


Way back in my early days my favorite horse of all, Tim Tam, won the Derby Trial in 1958 and came right back and won the KY Derby. He went on to win the Preakness and finished second in the Belmont on three legs having broken a bone in the stretch run. We will probably never see the likes of that again since it's been 7 yrs since a horse went from this race into the Derby and it may be a long time till we see another.

Of all the horses Baffert has this year Paynter's pedigree impressed me the most. He and Bodemeister have a lot of the same horses in their pedigrees but I see more potential in Paynter down the road. I love outcrossed horses if the cross is introduced into an inbred horse. This horse is inbred to Northern Dancer and is almost totally from decendents of Nearco. The cross is from the Man O' War line and brought in through the perfect spot, the damsire. I really like this classic type pedigree.

 I thought Paynter was making a huge jump from a maiden win in a sprint into the 1 1/8 G1 SA Derby. He got off to a slow start but didn't run badly at all against 2 of the leading contenders for the KY Derby. He doesn't have to improve much to take this.

Bourbon Courage blew them away in his first two starts. Granted, they were both sprints but his pedigree tells me he can handle a distance of ground. This race is only a mile so it should be right in his wheelhouse. He looks to have a lot of speed so he's only been given some easy works and considering his speed figures for both his races he looks like a serious contender.

Hierro was highly regarded early on but so far hasn't lived up to his billing. He is eligible to improve off his last, is nicely bred and the distance should be right up his alley. Has top notch connections and Asmussen knows how to get them ready.

Saint of Saints has a pedigree that may not be suited for the classic distances but this should suit him fine. Romans has 4 horses in here but this one looks best to me. Seve has nice breeding but has had a lot of chances and although I think he's sitting on a good race, I think graded company may be a little over his head.

I don't know what happened to Motor City after winning a G3 here at CD. He was given 5 months off, tried the Swale and never got in the running. I just think he's a better horse than he looks on paper. Maybe he has some problems or has been mishandled but I'd like to see him regain some of that 2 yr old form.

1- Paynter

2- Bourbon Courage

3- Hierro

4- Saint of Saints

Long shot- Motor City

Backstretch

Recap

No big surprises in this one but I do question the jockey tactics. I didn't understand Garcia trying the front with Paynter. Of courses he's not all that familiar with the track especially in the slop. On the other hand, Leparoux gave a great ride to the winner.

I expected Bourbon Courage to go for the lead but he laid back which was probably a mistake because he was closing too late. At any rate the race didn't have any importance in regards to the derby but the top 2 might do later on.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 16 Recap

Newsletter # 16- Sat. 4/21/12


Well, it looks like this Triple Crown Trail is winding down and I'm glad because I'm starting to suffer from horse fatigue. There are two races this weekend which probably won't have any effect on the Derby as there are only a couple that, if they should win, will still have to hope for some defections to make the field.

But just because these races may not have an effect on the Derby, don't discount all of these horses down the road. The Preakness and Belmont may see a couple in the field. Last year I was rooting all year for Uptowncharlybrown who ran into some problems but was a fast closing 3rd in the Lexington and went to the Belmont where he ran big but was DQd because of losing his weights. Some of these got off to a late start but may be coming around in time for some of the other big races.

KEE R9  Sat. 4/21/12  The Lexington

There's only a couple in here that have pedigrees that suit my taste. There are a couple that are very difficult to read and we have a few horses that like the turf which normally says they will like the poly.

I really think this is a difficult race to handicap because a case can be made for so many of them but even the best ones are very erratic.

I like the pedigree of Holiday Promise who ran a bang up race in his first try at graded company. It looked like he was going to win it but couldn't hold off Went The Day Well who looks like a nice one. He always seems to run his race and I feel like he really likes the poly.

Skyring has very nice breeding and got off to a bum start in his last in the Ill.Derby but was full of run and got checked again in the stretch. Gets a big jock change here and Lukas is due for a hit.

Morgan' Guerrilla came up as the live horse in that ILL Derby and wanted the lead but was compromised by his outside post. There's not much speed in this race and I expect 3 horses to be up front early. The one just mentioned along with Castaway and Johannesbourbon.

Castaway quit badly last time and I don't think he can handle a fast pace. When he won the Southwest they were just loping along. They may make him the chalk but, as I did last time, I'm chucking him right out.

The other speed Johana. has only had one race and blew them away at TP on the poly. He's got a sprinters pedigree so may not last the distance.

Gold Megillah ran a nice race last out against Flashy Dresser in the Rushaway and was just beaten by Gung Ho who came back to run a big race in the Bluegrass last week. Motion does real good at these tracks and it looks like JR is getting a lot of his horses to ride after Animal Kingdom last year.

News Pending ran 2nd to Union Rags in his next to last but got a bum start in the FL Derby. No closer was going to win that race anyway so that race is a toss for me. He gets KD back and Romans has his horses ready, as with Dullahan last week.

So, who to pick? As I said, a case can be made for most of them in which case I go for the long shots. I'm going to go with News pending because of his good try against Rags and he does have enough speed to get into contention. Also, horses that run good on GP turf seem to do good on poly. One drawback is the post position but maybe KD can work a trip. Oh, he did have a work Thur. at KEE.

1- News Pending

2- Holiday Promise

3- Gold Megillah

4- Skyring

Recap:

This was a strange race, aside from it being won by a 70/1 shot, with the speed horses no where to be found at the end. Castaway dueled for a bit with a sprinter but soon packed it in as he did in the Sunland. I felt he has just gotten lucky in the SW at Oaklawn by running on such a slow pace in a slow race. He had also told me something about those OP races which I will go into at another time.

I didn't understand News Pending's race. He has shown in the past that he has enough speed to get into the race but he lost touch with the field early on. He then made a long run up the backstretch to reach contention and then just stopped. All in all, a very disappointing race in which the winner happened to be in the right spot at the right time although the trainer switch to Ward must have had something to do with it. I'm just crossing this race off as one of those where the contenders didn't want to run that day and forget about it.


AQU.  R9  4/21/12  The Jerome

The weather may play a big part in this one as rain and a sloppy track is very possible. I would think it would favor speed if the track comes up sloppy, and there's
 plenty of speed in here, but it's only guessing when it comes to the weather.

Pedigrees don't really mean that much in a mile race but there are a few in here that I like their bloodlines.
Brigand, Stirred up, Dan And Sheila and Adirondack King all have nice pedigrees but as I said, I don't know as that will carry much weight. Those 4 and Lumber Guy are the only ones that have tried graded company and none had much success.

I'm going to go with Adirondack King because he had a nice race at the distance in the Southwest against Secret Circle and was up against it in the Rebel with that far outside post. With this small field he may find some running room and naturally I'm shooting for a long one.

Baffert has 2 in here and I suppose they feel Stirred Up is the better of the 2 but I think Brigand is sitting on a big race. He has good speed and way back in July chased a very fast Majestic City and also went up against Creative Cause and I'll Have Another. He was given 6 months off just like I'll Have Another and we know how well he has done. He has 2 very fast works recently and gets a good boy up. I think he is probably the one to beat in here.

The Lumber Guy took them a long way in the Wood but I think that was basically a 2 horse race and he really faded in the stretch.

Stirred Up was a distant third in the Sun Derby which was another weak field aside from the top two. Garcia does make the trip to ride so that must mean something.

Right To Vote likes this distance and had a nice race against Union Rags way back in Oct. and was given some time off and came back with a win and could be a factor in here.

Term Loan is another that prefers the mile and ran a big number last out but I don't care for horses that run real big in first off a layoff.

Dan And Sheila closed a ton against Mr Bowling but that was kind of a slow race and none from that race have done well. Went in the Gotham and was only slightly involved early and aside from Hansen the others haven't done a thing since.

1- Adirondack king

2- Brigand

3- The Lumber Guy

4- Stirred Up

Long shot- Right To Vote

Good Luck,
Backstretch

Recap:

I had had my suspicions about those races at OP and this was another that helped confirm them. I had thought I might get some big odds on Adirondack Kingbut he only went off at 4/1. He is just another that ran a good one at OP but failed to duplicate it elsewhere.

Brigand looked like he was sitting on a big race, which he was, but was no match for The Lumber Guy. Baffert had his horses ready to run but after seeing TLG put Brigand away easily I'm inclined to think that Gem and Alpha in the Wood really ran a big race.

I'm not into speed figures when handicapping these 3 yr old races but look more to who has beaten who. I have made up my mind that those races at OP were not very good at all. Secret Circle had taken 2 of them in which he didn't beat much and Castaway took one in which he beat nothing at all. In the ARK Derby Secret Circle was the only competition for Bodemeister, if one might call it competition, so I'm of a mind to think that Bode's race is being way over rated. Of course everyone is raving about his Beyers number, but aside from the fact that I put no stock whatsoever in Beyers numbers, I know that very often horses that go unchallenged on the lead can put up some fantastic figures but seldom run back to them in a race with good competition. That's just my opinion.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 15 Recap

Newsletter # 15  Sat. 4/14/12


I hate to bore some of you but I have some new subscribers to the newsletter that are not familiar with my pedigree handicapping.

I often pass up the form horses or favorites if they don't meet my pedigree standards for the classic distances. Needless to say, not all derby winners have the common denominator's that I look for in a pedigree, just a good percentage of them.

Another point is that I get a lot of long shot winners in the prep races as most of you know. The reason I'm repeating this is there may be some who might say I'm a bit whacky when I give my selections. It's quite obvious that you wouldn't need me if I were giving you the horses that everyone else picks. I believe that with the long ones I've picked already this year a lot of my followers have made enough to last the rest of the year.

Now to the horses; this is an amazing year compared to past years. There are really an awful lot of horses this year that are bred for the classics. Naturally, some must be better than others but I try my best to determine which ones have the most potential. A lot of horses don't run to their potential and a few who manage to outrun their pedigrees. There are also horses with a Heinz "57" pedigree which makes it nearly impossible to figure how they will turn out. On occasion a good one will turn up but for the most part they are rarely classic material.

It's been interesting watching how the horses are responding to the training methods now being employed by many trainers. A lot of them, especially Pletcher, have been going to the 2 preps before the Derby. A lot of these young colts have gotten a late start for one reason or another which may be attributed to design or injury or being late foals. Most of the early preps were won by horses with experience and these late starters have their work cut out in order to jump right to these longer distances without working up to them. There are some very promising colts that have only had a couple of races lifetime but there may be one or two that are very good and some surprises may occur.

KEE  Sat. 4/14/12  R11  Bluegrass Stakes  G1

This may surprise you but I am dismissing Hansen in this race for several reasons. Number 1 is that his pedigree doesn't meet my standards for the derby distance. I've mentioned in the past that his type pedigree can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and sometimes to 1 1/8 but rarely beyond that.

Reason # 2 is that I don't think he has beaten any very good horses beside Union Rags and I'm not sure Rags is all he's made out to be. He had those 2 big races at TP where he beat two fields of very mediocre horses. I know he won the Breeders Cup but that was kind of an unusual day and he happened to be very sharp that day.

Reason #3 is that in his last 2 races My Adonis was close to him and MA was badly beaten in the Wood. In the Gotham Hansen had a perfect stalking trip and the 3rd horse Finnegans Wake didn't run a lick in his next race.

In addition to meeting what is probably the best field he's faced he has to get an extra 1/16 of a mile. Unless he gets the easiest kind of trip I don't think he will win this.

I'm sticking with my pedigree horses and maybe I will score again. There are 6 of them in here but I will go with the ones that look best to me.

I'm going with Dullahan to win this. His pedigree suits me and he won the Breeders Fut. over this track. He ran 4th in the BC after having trouble at the start and was really running at the end. He had a very nice tune up on the grass in his last and even if he doesn't win this he will be coming up to the derby right on edge.

I also like Prospective who is 2 for 2 on poly and usually brings his A game with him. Aside from the BC he's never been worse than second. Has a real nice pedigree and could take it all.

Heavy Breathing has a classic pedigree and I'm not giving up on him yet. He battled for the lead at this distance in the Spiral and hung in pretty good and was beaten by a very nice colt. He doesn't need the lead and with the speed in here could get a ground saving stalking trip from the rail.

I haven't really figured out the pedigree of Howe Great except that he sure looks to be bred for the grass. He has run good on dirt so may just be a handy one. Four wins in a row is mighty hard to overlook and he beat a pretty good one in Lucky Chappy. I just have the feeling that speed won't hold up in this race and that's why I'm going the way I am.

Ever So Lucky has run into a couple good ones but I can't really figure where he fits in here. He's a nice horse that sold for over a 1/2 mil but to me he has kind of a mixed up pedigree. He must be a really good looking animal to bring that much money.

As I handicapped this race it came to me that this is the best field by far this year. A case can be made for almost any one of them. Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner and Politicallycorrect all have classic type breeding so I think that if your playing exotics you had better go deep. Of course, I could be dead wrong about Hansen and he may blow them away but he's not getting my money at 6/5. You might want to use him in the exotics or make a saver with him on top.

1- Dullahan

2- Prospective

3- Heavy Breathing

4- Howe Great

Longshots: Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner


Bluegrass Recap

I was wrong in that I didn't think Hansen would hold on enough to get second. He had no excuse as far as I could see. All alone on the lead with no pressure but ran out of pedigree in the stretch. I think he might be a very good miler but he's not derby material in my book.

I have liked Dullahan all year and if you go to my blog of 10/14/11, Mine That Bird, A Fluke?, I gave some reasons why I liked Dullahan way back then. Ran great today after a very slow start as in the Breeders Cup, and came a long way to win this. I think he's now set up perfectly for the derby but I wish they would give him some gate work because those slow starts are going to cost him down the road.

There are a lot of closers going in the Derby but I don't see any that can sustain a drive as far as Dullahan can. After that long drive to get into contention he switched leads halfway down the stretch and really got into another gear and was going away at the end.



OP  R11  4/14/12  Arkansas Derby

I guess Baffert is intent on nailing this one too. He's won with 10 of his last 13 starters here so you know his horses will be tough. I think what's making it so hard to get away from the early derby choices is that everybody is dodging. A lot of horses that look really good haven't beaten anything to speak of. There's been so many preps with only a couple of contenders but this week the races look pretty deep. Everybody has been trying to find the softest spot possible in order to get some graded earnings but it's down to the nitty gritty and a lot of the hopefuls will fall by the wayside.

There are 6 in here with classic breeding but a few look better than the others based on what the've done so far. I guess Baffert's 2 will be the top 2 choices but I'm going to buck them. You know  always go for the price horses.

I think Pletcher has a sleeper in here in Stat except he should have had another prep against some good ones. He did run second to Rags at the Spa but was then laid off for 6 months. I don't know what had happened to him. His last prep was good so I'm going to give him a shot here because I love his pedigree.

Bodemeister ran into a tough one in his first try against graded company but looked really good getting second. Really nice breeding and looks like he will be a good one. He needs to get at least second to make the derby.

Secret Circle is the other Baffert horse and he's already made the derby. This is a nice horse but has beaten some awfully soft fields, especially the BC wher it was a terrible field and he was almos caught by a foreign filly. The 2 races here at OP were also lacking in quality so I think he could be a little overrated. Baffert had said all year that he didn't know if he could go a distance but is going to try untill the horse tells him he's gone far enough.

I'm not crazy about the pedigree of Isn't He Clever but he's a hard hitter. Made kind of a premature move in his last and was caught late by Daddy Nose Best who had beat 2 nice ones at GG so I'm giving him a little play in here.

Cozzetti, Najjaar and Sabercat also have nice breeding. Cozzetti had a decent race last time in the Tampa Derby which didn't have much besides the winner and that Spring horse that broke down. Sabercat beat nothing in the Delta Jackpot as far as I could see. Najjaar is a deep closer that could get a piece with Calvin aboard.

1- Stat

2- Bodemeister

3- Secret Circle

4- Isn't He Clever

Long shot- Najjaar

Backstretch

ARK Derby Recap

Bodemeister, or is it BodeMONSTER?, demolished them and all the talk I see is about the big Beyers he ran. I like this horse and his pedigree but I have some questions when it comes to the derby. Firstly, in this race there wasn't much to beat beside his stablemate and you all know I'm not a fan of speed figures. Horses that get a clear lead and aren't challenged usually run a big figure. In fact, I see horses do this all the time and get the highest number they ever ran. I'm not saying Bode's race was a fluke but I'm not getting overly excited about it.

I will say that in this race Stat, who I feel is a very good horse but not seasoned at all, tried to track Bode and couldn't stay with hiim. Secret Circle was also trying to stay up there but Raffy wisely took him back a little and he was able to hold off the rest of the field.

How Bode fares in the derby will depend on what speed horses are entered, I guess Trinniberg is headed for the Preakness, and how they decide to position themselves. At any rate, I think the derby will have a fast contentious pace unless Bode becomes another War Emblem.

There may be some last minute defections and Mark Valeski and Reveron could get in which would change the complexion of the race.

The problem I have is that I pedigree handicap and I think over half the field has what I consider a classic type pedigree. This is very unusual because the most I've seen has been about 6 and last year there were only a few. I said it way back and it still stands; this is the best crop overall I think I've ever seen. Should be a terrific derby.

Backstretch