Saturday, January 25, 2014

The Holy Bull....Sat. 1/25/14

The Holy Bull  G2

GP - Sat. 1/25/14  R10

Finally, a race with some horses that have actually beaten or ran well against something beside maidens. This looks to be the best 3yr old race so far and it is a full field of competitive looking colts.

There are some very well bred colts in this, and since I like to handicap these races by pedigree, I will try to nail something at nice odds. If one just considers speed figures there are numerous possibilities so it should make for an interesting race. Most of the speed seems to be toward the rail so it looks like the closing horses may have a lot of ground to make up. Of course, it all depends on how fast they go up front whether or not they fade in the end.

Cairo Prince will probably be the favorite but he probably won't be real short odds. He has a nice pedigree that has a few much older horses close up in his breeding. I see no reason to say he can't get a classic distance.

Wicked Strong is another well bred colt who ran close up to Cairo Prince last time and may have been compromised by the extremely slow pace that he was closing into. A little more pace and he could be dangerous here.

Coup de Grace is a Tappit colt and as a rule I don't favor them at the classic distances but it may be because a lot of them happen to have a lot of RAN mares in the key spots in their pedigree which doesn't bode well for the classic distances. This one however has a nice Ribot cross which may increase his chances of getting the longer distances.

Mr Speaker is one of those Phipps horses that, like Orb, can be very good or kind of mediocre. They have a tendency to confuse me somewhat. Also, this one has been very good so far on the grass and I'll wait to see what he does on the dirt.

Almost Famous has a lovely pedigree with the paternal G. Dam being a really nice cross brought into the Northern Dancer line and the cross being bred back into the Northern Dancer, Nasrullah lines. I really like this pedigree and he may be one that has speed and can run all day.

As I've said, this is a group of well bred youngsters and most of them brought some very high prices at the sales so I would assume they were all quite handsome. Most of them have run well and show some real talent and there are some speed figures that are not all that far apart. I will lean to the pedigrees I like best.

1- Almost Famous
2- Coup de Grace
3- Wicked Strong
4-Cairo Prince
Long Shots- Our Caravan, Financial Mogul

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Friday, January 17, 2014

The LeComte Sat. 1/18/14

The LeComte G3

FG R9 Sat. 1/18/14

I am really still looking for that horse that combines the type of classic pedigree I like with some powerful races. It's still early and we have got to wait and see if any of the winners so far are able to follow up with some more good races. With the point system in effect it looks like a lot of the contenders will only have a couple of preps before the Derby unless they are forced to try to garner more points to make it into the race.

This race has produced some nice winners in recent years like Hard Spun and Oxbow last year. There seems to be an abundance of colts this year that have, what has almost become a standard, pedigrees loaded with the Mr Prospector, Northern Dancer and Nasrullah sire lines. An awful lot of good horses are bred along these lines but that's to be expected since there are so many of these bred every year. This race has more than it's share of these and it's hard to say which ones are the better until they have been sorted out by racing

Gold Hawk has a different type of pedigree in that there is no real inbreeding involved. He has a lot of different sire lines in his breeding and it's hard to tell if one of these lines will dominate or if, by all the crosses, everything has been, for lack of a better term, diluted. So far, it looks like one of those great sire lines in his pedigree is going to make it's influence felt and he could be a really nice colt.

Got Shades is very nicely bred and has a couple of patterns I favor. He has shown some promise on the grass but we don't know how he will take to the dirt. I think his breeding actually points more to dirt than turf but he's been racing in the weeds simply because there were no dirt races going long available to him. If he shows a liking for dirt he could be dangerous in here.

Albano has a pedigree dominated by the Mr Prospector line but has a nice cross of the Gallant Man & Mr P lines through Pocho's Dream Girl who was brought back into the Mr P line to produce Albano. This cross is not common but so far it seems to be working. Larry Jones, who trained Hard Spun to win this race, also trains this one.

Smarty's Echo may have more stamina than his sire who many thought wouldn't get the Derby distance but we all know what happened there. I think Smarty Jones got his staying power from his dam who's sire line liked a distance and Echo isn't going to be hurt by being out of a mare of the Sword Dancer line. Of course, a few in this race may not shine until they get to the 10f distance.

Vicar's in Trouble blew them away in a state bred race with a big speed figure so will probably catch a lot of action. It looks like Rosie jumped off two other mounts to ride this one. He does have speed and may be hard to catch except that his big win is not the kind of race that impresses me. It was a state bred race and it appears he had everything his way and these type of performances usually produce big numbers. Of course, that's just my opinion.

Plug Catcher ran third to Hawk last time making a bid that he couldn't sustain. With that race under his belt and the addition of blinkers he may show a little more staying power.

This race, not having any graded winners, could be up for grabs so I can't get too sold on any particular one. Since he hasn't been beaten yet I'll stick with Gold Hawk but I think he will go off at odds on.

1- Gold Hawk
2- Got Shades
3- Albano
4- Smarty's Echo

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Saturday, January 11, 2014

The Sham Stakes G3

The Sham G3

SA  R5  Sat. 1/11/14

This is the Sham but I would be more inclined to call it the Shame. With all those 3 yr old horses prepared to contest the Triple Crown, the best they can do is 6 entries?

I suppose the answer lies in the fact that this race is only worth 10 Derby points so why waste your horse here when you can take a shot at a race worth 50 and almost be sure of getting into the big show. I have been in favor of the point system but when there are 18 races worth 10 points, 8 races worth 50 points and 7 worth 100, I guess the thinking is, why take a chance on the horse getting hurt or whatever for a lousy 10 points when you can take 1 shot, get lucky and your in. So, what we get is graded races for young horses with only 6 entries. I think that sucks!

As to this race, we have another graded race with all but one entry coming off a maiden win. Would you call this a bettable race? Two of the favorites have had but one race so I find it hard to get enthused about any of them.

I will say that there are a couple of nice pedigrees in here and the one I like is Kristo who has the type of breeding that's had an awful lot of success in recent years and he is my top choice. I love the Northern Dancer mares and the sire line of RAN is almost always good when coupled with these type mares. He has speed, as do most of these, but I think he will be able to carry that speed a long way.

Midnight Hawk has a kind of Heinz "57" pedigree that consists of several outstanding sire lines with little to none in the way of inbreeding. When it comes to breeding, the reason there is a lot of inbreeding done is that it makes things a little more predictable when the number of possibilities are cut down. So, Midnight Hawk may be a very good one but not knowing which horses in his pedigree will exert the most influence, I have to take a wait and see stance.

Top Fortitude is in the same category as Midnight Hawk and may also turn out to be very good but we will know more when they go up against some accomplished runners.

Ontology has a fairly nice pedigree but it remains to be seen if he can handle the dirt. He's had more races than any of them but, although showing signs, he has taken 8 races to break his maiden.

1- #1 Kristo
2- #6 Midnight Hawk
3- Top Fortitude
4- Ontology

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Saturday, January 4, 2014

The Jerome Sat. 1/4/14

The Jerome-G2 Sat. 1/4/14

I've been a little slow getting started with the 3yr old horses this year. This is the first graded race this year on the TC trail and I will try to follow up on most of the graded stakes on this years trail.
As of the moment I'm not high on anything for the simple reason that I haven't invested much time with them so far. I plan on looking at them on a race by race basis and will handicap them mostly by pedigree but we also have got to see some performance because no matter how good the breeding they still must live up to their potential.

There are only a couple in this race that I feel are bred for the classics and I'm not too impressed by these. There are quite a few on the trail with a lot nicer credentials.

Scotland, although still a maiden, looks to me to have the most potential over a distance of ground. This race is just over a mile so it doesn't take a classic pedigree to get this distance but these are the ones I will keep my eye on as the distances get longer. This one has a couple of Northern Dancer mares in key positions in his pedigree that tell me he will be able to stretch out and handle the classic distances.

Lawmaker is the type that can be very good up to 9f but they usually can't get the derby distance. He may have some success along the way but I don't consider him as a contender for Derby honors.

Classic Giacnroll is very nicely bred and has a couple of crosses that say he should really love much longer distances. He's had some success in sprints already but he runs well off the pace and was probably a bit classier than those he's beat so far. I think as he meets better company he will be a stone closer and that usually hurts a horses chances against quality speed.

Noble Moon is a contender in here but his pedigree doesn't impress me but, as I've said, they don't need much breeding to get this distance.

Master Lightning has a so-so pedigree and has tried graded company twice and didn't get close. In relation to most of Pletcher's horses, this one was pretty cheap at the sales and I think he may not be ready for graded company yet.

1- #2 Scotland
2- #3 Lawmaker
3- #7 Classic Giacnroll
4- #1 Noble Moon

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