Friday, May 6, 2016

KY Derby 2016


KY Derby  2015

I've been handicapping about 65 years and one of the first things I learned was never to bet against an unbeaten horse. Not that they don't lose eventually, but don't put up your money to find out if it is going to lose today.

Having said that, I am going to have to buck him in this race, not only because he will probably be the chalk but because his two best figures were in sprints and they were G2 rather than G1 races. Because of this I feel he may be vulnerable but he does have something else going for him in that he is quite versatile. He can run on or off the pace and is one of the few horses in here with good speed which should enable him to get a good position.

As you know, when it gets to the classic distances, I tend to depend more on pedigree than other factors. The problem with this race is that just about all of them have pedigrees that say they can get the Derby distance but we know that some won't, at least in this race. There are a few pedigrees I like better than the rest and they are Destin, who I like the most, Suddenbreaking news and Mo Tom but anyone of them are capable of getting the distance. In the past there were many believers in the dosage index which indicated that horses with a DI of over 4.00 had little chance of getting the classic distances and this was true except for a couple of cases. Nyquist has a DI of 7.00 and Outwork has a DI of 11.00 so that using the DI theory these two would be eliminated. However, my pedigree patterns say they may get the distance regardless of the DI. I do like Outwork's breeding a little better because he is an out crossed horse and when that kind is good they can be very good.

Before I give my picks here are some random thoughts of mine regarding performance:

There are what I call big wins put forth by horses that have run races in the highest company where they had the lead in the stretch and increased that lead. In this race there are Nyquist who had the lead in the stretch of the G1 Fla Derby and was increasing it at the end. Exaggerator did the same in the G1 SA Derby although on a sloppy track where the speed died. Brody's Cause did it in the G1 Bluegrass also.

And there are two who got big wins in G2 races and that was Gun Runner and Destin. Horses with big wins are always a threat to repeat and most of the time when I have bucked them I was beaten.

Another thought I have is that there are an awful lot of handicappers that don't really understand what happens in a horse race. For one thing, they don't realize that when horses tire they virtually slow to a walk. Regardless of the numbers, when you see a race where all, or almost all, the horses near the pace drop back and a bunch of closers come on to take the top positions, the pace was fast. A really fast pace can affect more horses than the leaders. It can often have an effect on horses running in the second flight if they are not too far back. What happens in a case like that is these other horses are taken out of their comfort zone by trying to stay within striking range of the leaders.

I believe this is what happened in a few of the preps like the AK Derby, the Wood and to some degree  the SA Derby. The Wood went extremely fast early and the colts in the second flight were not that far behind Outwork and Matt King Coal who were waging one of the best speed duels I've seen in some time. None of the horses in the second flight were making up any ground and were actually falling back which left Trojan Nation the last man standing, so to speak. Because he was the only one who had done no running at all early in the race he was able to go by all of them except Outwork. I thought this was a super good effort by Outwork in light of the early battle he had. There are those who feel it wasn't much of a race by Outwork because he had only beaten a maiden. But it makes no difference who ran second because it could have been any one of them if they hadn't chased that pace.

I won't go into all the details but I think virtually the same thing happened in the AK Derby with Cupid and Gettysburg cutting the pace and I think the first five under the wire were the same ones lagging behind early. Of course, Cupid and Gettysburg are not in this so we don't have to worry about them.

Probably the same situation in the SA Derby but to a lesser degree. In spite of the rapid pace set by Danzing Candy he did hang a little tough. Mor Spirit, who ran second, wasn't all that far off the early pace and was probably out of his comfort zone also since the pace was a couple seconds faster than he is able to handle. This is probably the most confusing derby I've seen in sixty years.

There are two questions that are really bugging me:

Can Nyquest and/or Outwork get the distance? Their pedigrees are suspect but their performances say they might.
The really big question is what is Smith going to do with Danzing Candy? He is probably going to the front and to do that he is really going to have to gun right out of that #20 hole. If he does, will he be able to take back some and set a moderate pace or will the horse just keep pulling? If a blazing pace is the answer it could set it up for the deep closers like some of the preps. I think everything depends on what this horse does with the lead. I want to make some kind of decision so I am going to assume Mike will get the pace slowed down some and I'll make my decision based on that and my pedigree horses.

1- #9 Destin  15/1...I love his breeding but the owner may have made the dumbest move in history not giving this colt another race because he believes in a bounce theory. I'm hoping that Pletcher's skill at bringing a horse out running off a lay off will save the day.

2- #15  Outwork  15/1 ...I think his Wood race was one of the best I've seen. I understand they have been working him behind horses to get him to rate a little.

3- #4  Mo Tom  20/1...one of the 3 pedigrees I like and is the Uncle Mo that's really bred for the classic distances  and if the race falls apart up front he could take it all with a good trip.

4- #2 Suddenbreakingnews  20/1...my other pedigree horse who has been getting some speed works and a shadow roll to try to get him into the race a little sooner.

A couple of others who have a shot at this...

#5 Gun Runner 10/1 and #17 Mor Spirit 12/1 have the running styles that could have them getting the jump on the closers and be close enough to the leaders to win this.

Big Long Shot- #20  Danzing Candy 20/1..this kind of speed is always dangerous.

Even though I am trying to beat him, Nyquist must be respected because he's done everything right so far. As a saver I'm betting Nyquist in an exacta box with those I have listed.
Good Luck