Newsletter # 48 Sat. 12/15/12
HOL R9 Cashcall Futurity G1
Looks to be the last graded race for 2 yr olds this year. A nice, field performance wise, but I'm not too impressed by most of the pedigrees. Not that pedigrees matter all that much until the classic distances are reached but I base my choices on what I think their potential is down the road.
Three years ago Lookin At Lucky won this but the last two winners were not much of a factor in the TC races. There have been a few champs that have won this race but it hasn't been all that consistent in producing TC contenders. I'm not too impressed with this years field but one never knows, after all, it's horse racing.
As far as breeding, there are a couple that have pedigrees that might stand them in good stead when the longer races come up but as of now I'm not too excited by them.
He's Had Enough doesn't have any big figures but any horse that can do battle on even terms with Shanghai Bobby must have some talent. I really like his pedigree which tells me he can handle any distance. The key for him is not to get bogged down along the rail and encounter too much traffic when he makes his run.
Violence has a nice out crossed pedigree and hasn't done anything wrong yet. Question is how will he take to the track out there. He's a nice colt but, if he should win this, Pletcher will probably do with him as he did with Gemologist last year and let him wind down and then go try to go to the derby with only 2 prep races next year. How'd that work out?
Oxbow has a pedigree that couldn't have been planned better in my opinion. The problem with so many really nice bred colts is that no matter how much potential they may have, it still comes down to how the trainer handles them and if they are up for a big race when the time comes. Lukas has probably won more stakes than anyone but that was a long time ago. He still gets a nice one now and then but seems to have lost his touch. If it wasn't for the trainer I would probably put this one on top.
Really Mr Greely has the papers to be a good one also but hasn't tangled with anything good yet having won a graded race with only 5 runners. Looks to be fast and should take to the distance.
1- He's Had Enough
2- Violence
3- Oxbow
4- Really Mr Greely
Long Shot- Title Contender
RECAP
Violence enjoyed the luxury of sitting off this pace and getting a dream trip but being the nice colt he is, he brought his A game and took it all. He has a pedigree full of potential and could go a long way in the hunt for top honors this year but, as I predicted, Pletcher is going to try to get him to the derby with just 2 races and this has been his plan with quite a few and it hasn't worked out very well.
Fury Kapcori was in a pace duel all the way and hung on very well to finish second. I don't know whether this means he's a very good colt or that there were none in here with much closing ability beside Violence.
I was impressed by Oxbows race more than the others. He was hard used early and very wide around the first turn trying to get up on that quick pace.It had to take a lot out of him early on. He then dropped back slightly and then made what might have been a premature move around the final turn and ran out of gas but did fight back hard to regain fourth. The bad post was his undoing in my opinion.
We will have to wait and see how Violence does against a more realistic pace and some better colts. I also want to see what happens if Oxbow happens to get an easy lead or is able to sit just off a normal pace in one of his future races.
Backstretch
