This is an updated list of my top rated pedigrees for the Classic distances in alphabetic order.
Anthony's Cross..........very game....long time between races may hurt
Archarcharch...............needs to lay off the pace
Bandbox.......................hasn't met top horses yet
Bench Points...............longer distance should help
Caleb's Posse..............closes well into fast pace
Indian Winter.............. disappointed in last but the winner just took the Sunland Derby
Jaycito..........................needed last....should be peaking for derby
J W Blue......................lightly raced....looks to be set for big race after last
Master Of Hounds......couple of ifs...if he comes...if he takes to dirt he's a winner...best bred of all
Premier Pegasus.........I'm not sold on this one even after that big win.
Soldat...........................always in the hunt
Stay Thirsty.................if he wins the FL Derby will be major threat in May
The Factor...................never been headed...I think he can get the distance if not challenged early
Uncle Mo....................perfect so far....
As a side note; I really dislike what the trainers are doing. They have been dodging and trying to pick the easiest spots. They are treating these horses with kid gloves because they are only interested in getting to the KY Derby. Whether they win it or not seems immaterial from the way they are training.
Something really has to be done about the earnings system for getting to the big one. There are too many that are getting in that shouldn't even be there. Winning those big purses at the minor tracks is the big problem. Also, they should not count the earnings as a 2 yr old. Horses like Uncle Mo would have to be racing not sitting on the sidelines waiting for May to come. If 2 yr old earnings weren't counted these crummy races we've had so far would be really competitive. That's my take on it.
Backstretch
Monday, March 28, 2011
Thursday, March 24, 2011
LA Derby and Sunland Derby
The LA Derby only had a few entries until everybody got the same idea and it now has a full field. If Mucho Macho Man can repeat his win in the Risen Star it would be another step along the way for the story of the year, Kathy Ritvo. In case you didn't know, Kathy, the trainer of Macho Man, had a heart transplant in the recent past. I won't go into all the details but come derby day you can bet she and her horse will be the biggest story at Churchill Downs.
Macho Man figures to be the favorite in this race but I'm going to buck him. I think Elite Alex ran into some tough ones at OP and had a rough trip in his last. There's some speed in this race and it's not probable that Macho would get the lead with a soft pace as he did last time. Wilkinson is the only other graded winner in here beside Macho Man so those two seem to have a little class edge. Kelly Breen is going to have a busy weekend with two horses in here and two in the Sunland Derby. I don't have any of my pedigree horses in this race so am just going by what they've done so far.
Here's how I see it:
1 - Elite Alex
2 - Mucho Macho Man
3 - Nacho Business
4 - Left
Sunland Derby: This race is more to my liking as far as betting goes. There are a couple in here with pedigrees I kind of like. Sinai has nice breeding but I will reserve judgement on him until he stretches out a little. Supreme Ruler, on the other hand, has shown some ability in a 2 turn race already and if he can run to his pedigree could prove to be a nice upset in here.
Astrology is the likely favorite as he's been in all his starts. He's been highly regarded all year and has been on the bench for 4 months so I think he may be a tad short for this. I don't know why the change in jocks from Gomez to Leparoux and, as I understand it, Julian will only have about 24 hrs to get back here from Dubai while Gomez is right here at the FG.
Breen and Bravo are all over the place this week so maybe they can score with one somewhere.
1 - Supreme Ruler
2 - Ruler On Ice
3 - Astrology
4 - Nacho Saint
5 - Sinai
Best of Luck,
Backstretch
Macho Man figures to be the favorite in this race but I'm going to buck him. I think Elite Alex ran into some tough ones at OP and had a rough trip in his last. There's some speed in this race and it's not probable that Macho would get the lead with a soft pace as he did last time. Wilkinson is the only other graded winner in here beside Macho Man so those two seem to have a little class edge. Kelly Breen is going to have a busy weekend with two horses in here and two in the Sunland Derby. I don't have any of my pedigree horses in this race so am just going by what they've done so far.
Here's how I see it:
1 - Elite Alex
2 - Mucho Macho Man
3 - Nacho Business
4 - Left
Sunland Derby: This race is more to my liking as far as betting goes. There are a couple in here with pedigrees I kind of like. Sinai has nice breeding but I will reserve judgement on him until he stretches out a little. Supreme Ruler, on the other hand, has shown some ability in a 2 turn race already and if he can run to his pedigree could prove to be a nice upset in here.
Astrology is the likely favorite as he's been in all his starts. He's been highly regarded all year and has been on the bench for 4 months so I think he may be a tad short for this. I don't know why the change in jocks from Gomez to Leparoux and, as I understand it, Julian will only have about 24 hrs to get back here from Dubai while Gomez is right here at the FG.
Breen and Bravo are all over the place this week so maybe they can score with one somewhere.
1 - Supreme Ruler
2 - Ruler On Ice
3 - Astrology
4 - Nacho Saint
5 - Sinai
Best of Luck,
Backstretch
Monday, March 21, 2011
Rebel Rerun
Well, I think the race went pretty much the way I thought it would. When there's a quality horse with a ton of speed and nobody to run with him it's almost a foregone conclusion.
I had four of my pedigree horses in there which was reduced to three after ALTERNATION was scratched. I think, as I said before, that contrary to what most would believe, THE FACTOR is a really nicely bred horse. Whether he can get the derby distance is another question but as I mentioned in the previous post, as long as they can harness his speed he looks like he can run all day and that's what his breeding suggests to me.
I was really disappointed in the ride that ARCHARCHARCH got in this race. Two races back, in the Smarty Jones, he chased a hot pace and faded to fourth and CALEB'S POSSE won it. In his next race he laid off the pace and won the Southwest. In the Rebel he broke fast and then was sitting third and after 3/8s the jock got antsy and tried to make a very premature move. He moved up abreast of SARATOGA RED and then was taken back a little before making another bid coming into the stretch. He lost second by a neck to the POSSE again. ARCH is a horse that can give a big run if unhurried early, even though he does have some tactical speed. ARCH needs a new jock or Court has got to learn how to ride him. I still think he has distance ability and is game as hell.
My other horse was J W BLUE and he was really compromised by a few factors. He had a bad post for a closer on a speed favoring track and he got off slow to boot. This was his third time that he entered a race off a layoff. In the two previous times he ran terrible and came back in his next race with huge improvement to win. He came into this race with nothing but three 4f works, nothing serious though. One thing I noted in the chart was that BLUE was the only horse in the race that didn't lose ground in the stretch. I'm looking for a BIG move forward from him next time, especially if in a race that sets up right. I love his pedigree and BLUE is a serious race horse.
Alternation suffered a slight cut from his antics in the gate so should be able to wheel right back into another race. I would hope they would send him to the LA Derby but there are a couple other races that he could enter. He has no graded earnings so he may only get one shot to make it to the derby.
If most of this field have eyes on the million dollar Arkansas Derby they may run into THE FACTOR again and if no speed horses show up it might be the same story as the Rebel.
I'll be looking at the LA Derby next.
Backstretch
I had four of my pedigree horses in there which was reduced to three after ALTERNATION was scratched. I think, as I said before, that contrary to what most would believe, THE FACTOR is a really nicely bred horse. Whether he can get the derby distance is another question but as I mentioned in the previous post, as long as they can harness his speed he looks like he can run all day and that's what his breeding suggests to me.
I was really disappointed in the ride that ARCHARCHARCH got in this race. Two races back, in the Smarty Jones, he chased a hot pace and faded to fourth and CALEB'S POSSE won it. In his next race he laid off the pace and won the Southwest. In the Rebel he broke fast and then was sitting third and after 3/8s the jock got antsy and tried to make a very premature move. He moved up abreast of SARATOGA RED and then was taken back a little before making another bid coming into the stretch. He lost second by a neck to the POSSE again. ARCH is a horse that can give a big run if unhurried early, even though he does have some tactical speed. ARCH needs a new jock or Court has got to learn how to ride him. I still think he has distance ability and is game as hell.
My other horse was J W BLUE and he was really compromised by a few factors. He had a bad post for a closer on a speed favoring track and he got off slow to boot. This was his third time that he entered a race off a layoff. In the two previous times he ran terrible and came back in his next race with huge improvement to win. He came into this race with nothing but three 4f works, nothing serious though. One thing I noted in the chart was that BLUE was the only horse in the race that didn't lose ground in the stretch. I'm looking for a BIG move forward from him next time, especially if in a race that sets up right. I love his pedigree and BLUE is a serious race horse.
Alternation suffered a slight cut from his antics in the gate so should be able to wheel right back into another race. I would hope they would send him to the LA Derby but there are a couple other races that he could enter. He has no graded earnings so he may only get one shot to make it to the derby.
If most of this field have eyes on the million dollar Arkansas Derby they may run into THE FACTOR again and if no speed horses show up it might be the same story as the Rebel.
I'll be looking at the LA Derby next.
Backstretch
Friday, March 18, 2011
Rebel Stakes
This looks to be a really competitive race unlike the other preps so far this year. It looks to be somewhat of a guessing game with the entry of the CA horses. I don't understand the way the CA preps have been run with the horses coming out of the gate hell-bent -for-leather. Amazing times they have run.
This race is only 1 1/16 miles so we are not close yet to the Derby distance. Horses don't need a real distance pedigree to win at the distances that have been run so far which means that some that may excel at the classic distances get eliminated because of lack of earnings. This is why I handicap these races almost entirely by pedigree and if most of them don't get the earnings, so be it.
I usually find a couple that are brilliant enough to win the shorter races but have the pedigree potential to get the classic distances. The type of breeding I like has won the derby like 7 of the last 10. This is not to say that other type pedigrees don't win but I have touted a lot of derby winners in this way.
To get to the Rebel; there are pedigrees in here that I like. ARCHARCHARCH, ALTERNATION, THE FACTOR and J W BLUE are the ones I like.
In the case of ARCH I feel he is going to get better as the distances get longer. ALTERNATION and J W BLUE both have nice distance pedigrees but they haven't gotten out of allowance company yet but their breeding suggests to me that they should improve as they move forward.
THE FACTOR presents somewhat of a problem. I really think he's bred to go this distance and maybe a little longer, but only if they find a way to harness his speed. I will have to use him in this race for the reason that he may be the lone speed in the race.
ARCH...I really like him to win...must not get buried on the rail.
THE FACTOR ....I will use him in top spot also in case he steals it...whoever tries to run with him may also get cooked.
I will put these 2 on top of:
ALTERNATION
J W BLUE
J P's GUSTO
SWAY AWAY
ELITE ALEX.....I hear he may be scratched.
1,6/1,2,5,6,9,10,13
As an afterthought, there may be a token rabbit in here to try to run with THE FACTOR. It's just a wild thought, but possible.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
This race is only 1 1/16 miles so we are not close yet to the Derby distance. Horses don't need a real distance pedigree to win at the distances that have been run so far which means that some that may excel at the classic distances get eliminated because of lack of earnings. This is why I handicap these races almost entirely by pedigree and if most of them don't get the earnings, so be it.
I usually find a couple that are brilliant enough to win the shorter races but have the pedigree potential to get the classic distances. The type of breeding I like has won the derby like 7 of the last 10. This is not to say that other type pedigrees don't win but I have touted a lot of derby winners in this way.
To get to the Rebel; there are pedigrees in here that I like. ARCHARCHARCH, ALTERNATION, THE FACTOR and J W BLUE are the ones I like.
In the case of ARCH I feel he is going to get better as the distances get longer. ALTERNATION and J W BLUE both have nice distance pedigrees but they haven't gotten out of allowance company yet but their breeding suggests to me that they should improve as they move forward.
THE FACTOR presents somewhat of a problem. I really think he's bred to go this distance and maybe a little longer, but only if they find a way to harness his speed. I will have to use him in this race for the reason that he may be the lone speed in the race.
ARCH...I really like him to win...must not get buried on the rail.
THE FACTOR ....I will use him in top spot also in case he steals it...whoever tries to run with him may also get cooked.
I will put these 2 on top of:
ALTERNATION
J W BLUE
J P's GUSTO
SWAY AWAY
ELITE ALEX.....I hear he may be scratched.
1,6/1,2,5,6,9,10,13
As an afterthought, there may be a token rabbit in here to try to run with THE FACTOR. It's just a wild thought, but possible.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Monday, March 14, 2011
Recap- Uncle Mo and Others
Well, it was a big weekend but I don't think much was settled. Uncle Mo had no competition and cruised a mile but looked good doing it. There have been plenty of comments, pro and con, about him and a lot of speculation about his ability to get the distance. I'm not too impressed with his sire side but I like his dam's credentials. There's a lot of Northern Dancer blood in there and that's always a big plus. Even if the derby distance is stretching him a little he may do it on raw talent. Don't forget, nobody has gotten close to him yet and if there is to be another TC winner it will likely be a horse of his type.
I think the Tampa Bay Derby exposed Brethren for what he is; a good horse but not champion material. I liked the pedigree of a few in that race, especially that of the winner. He may become a major player down the line. And believe it or not, the claiming horse that ran second at huge odds also has a decent pedigree. In defense of Brethren, I think he was given an over confident ride. Ramon rode him as if there was no competition in the race.
The San Felipe was a very competitive race to begin with. They ran some crazy fractions up front as has been happening all year at that track. In light of that it's really hard to tell what a lot of these horses will do on another track. I'm looking forward to seeing how The Factor fares at Oaklawn.
This race really fell apart up front and even though Premier Pegasus seemed to win quite easily, I think Jaycito and Bench Points were just given too much to do by lagging so far behind the field. But, as I said, running on tracks other than SA may be an entirely different story.
The Rebel next week promises to be a big one as far as separating the men from the boys. I really feel that if Uncle Mo fails, the derby winner will come from the Arkansas preps. I'll be going over the Rebel field later in the week.
Please feel free to post your comments as I'm always agreeable to learning something new.
Backstretch
I think the Tampa Bay Derby exposed Brethren for what he is; a good horse but not champion material. I liked the pedigree of a few in that race, especially that of the winner. He may become a major player down the line. And believe it or not, the claiming horse that ran second at huge odds also has a decent pedigree. In defense of Brethren, I think he was given an over confident ride. Ramon rode him as if there was no competition in the race.
The San Felipe was a very competitive race to begin with. They ran some crazy fractions up front as has been happening all year at that track. In light of that it's really hard to tell what a lot of these horses will do on another track. I'm looking forward to seeing how The Factor fares at Oaklawn.
This race really fell apart up front and even though Premier Pegasus seemed to win quite easily, I think Jaycito and Bench Points were just given too much to do by lagging so far behind the field. But, as I said, running on tracks other than SA may be an entirely different story.
The Rebel next week promises to be a big one as far as separating the men from the boys. I really feel that if Uncle Mo fails, the derby winner will come from the Arkansas preps. I'll be going over the Rebel field later in the week.
Please feel free to post your comments as I'm always agreeable to learning something new.
Backstretch
Friday, March 11, 2011
Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe
Before I get into the races I'd like to comment on the politics of racing in regard to the Uncle Mo situation.
It seems to me that trainers and owners are no different than politicians when it comes to trying to deceive the public. It is my opinion that Pletcher had a schedule mapped out for three of his horses; Uncle Mo, Brethren and Stay Thirsty. He was pointing Mo to the Wood as his final race before the Derby with Brethren going to the Tampa Bay Derby and Stay Thirsty to the Gotham.
Keep in mind that Uncle Mo needs no more graded earnings to get in the derby so he's guaranteed a spot, where as the other two need some money in the account to get there. Having won the Sam Davis, there's no way they would want Brethren running anywhere but the TBD. It would be silly to run Mo in that race and probably knock Brethren out of contention. Thirsty is aiming for the FL Derby so they sure don't want to run Mo in that one. So what to do?
They talk GP into making up a special race for Uncle Mo so that he would get a tune-up for the Wood without going against the other two and also at little risk of Mo getting beat. One of Pletcher's arguments was probably that by having this special race it would assure GP of a good crowd on the day the Tampa Derby is being run. I feel pretty sure they also promised Stay Thirsty would go in the FL Derby which would make that talk of his running in the Rebel a lot of BS.
Everybody has been dodging everybody and only giving two preps to try to get to the first Sat. in May. I don't think a lot of them even care if the horse is ready for the big one, just get there!
My whole point is that they don't come out with the truth, and try to con us, when anyone with a brain knows what they are up to. So don't believe the stories that trainers come up with because, for the most part, they are full of crap.
On to the races: I won't even discuss Uncle Mo's race except to say I hope the Rattlesnake bites him.
At Tampa I will have to stick with Brethren till he gets beat. This race looks to be tougher than the Sam Davis was but he looked to have plenty left in the tank when winning that one. Another point to remember when handicapping these prep races is not to pay too much attention to the speed ratings. Some of these horses have won so easily that they probably could have gone a lot faster as is the case with Brethren. Also, these young horses that are trying a distance for the first time may run much slower numbers as they stretch out and others may relish the longer distances. That is why I like my pedigree handicapping because it gives me a better idea of the potential at the longer distances.
I like the pedigrees on Striding Ahead and Watch Me Go but I'm curious about the jockey situation on those two. Garcia is back on Watch Me Go and I don't know if he's committed to the horse or if he likes it better than Striding Ahead. On the other hand, Solis is having a banner meet in FL and is back to some of his old time form and maybe Billy Mott would rather him than Garcia. Solis is really good coming from off the pace and that may be the ticket in this race. Another with a nice pedigree is Free Entry who stretched out a little last time for his second straight score and is coming up to his third race off the layoff.
There is some speed in this race and if Ramon sends Brethren early he may have some company up front.
1 --- Brethren.....didn't beat much in last but is still undefeated
2 --- Free Entry.....nice breeding and should be up to a big race
3 --- Striding Ahead....great pedigree...won first at the distance...question, will he improve or bounce?
4 --- Watch Me Go....nicely bred but couldn't get close to top one last time
A few in here were trying to close on Brethren last time but I think they just passed tired horses.
San Felipe; Looks like a very contentious race with no standout. There are only a couple of pedigrees in here that I like for the long haul. Bench Points has a very nice pedigree even though a CA bred. Is undefeated but has not met any good ones in open company. He's stretching out today but the way he runs it looks like he really wants more ground. Jaycito is another that's nicely bred. Has been up against some good ones and is now in Baffert's barn which should be a plus. There are some hard knockers in here like Comma To The Top and Premier Pegasus and a few newcomers to make it even more up for grabs.
1 --- Bench Points....I like his breeding...like his running style and seems to be a gritty type...not the least is he should be long odds.
2 --- Jaycito....like his breeding....already a grade 1 winner...good barn
3 --- Quail Hill...nice breeding...went 1 1/8 last time and wasn't far behind two nice ones in the Rbt. Lewis Stakes....will be a nice price and could take all the marbles.
Wide open race so I'm looking for value here and anyone can get a piece.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
It seems to me that trainers and owners are no different than politicians when it comes to trying to deceive the public. It is my opinion that Pletcher had a schedule mapped out for three of his horses; Uncle Mo, Brethren and Stay Thirsty. He was pointing Mo to the Wood as his final race before the Derby with Brethren going to the Tampa Bay Derby and Stay Thirsty to the Gotham.
Keep in mind that Uncle Mo needs no more graded earnings to get in the derby so he's guaranteed a spot, where as the other two need some money in the account to get there. Having won the Sam Davis, there's no way they would want Brethren running anywhere but the TBD. It would be silly to run Mo in that race and probably knock Brethren out of contention. Thirsty is aiming for the FL Derby so they sure don't want to run Mo in that one. So what to do?
They talk GP into making up a special race for Uncle Mo so that he would get a tune-up for the Wood without going against the other two and also at little risk of Mo getting beat. One of Pletcher's arguments was probably that by having this special race it would assure GP of a good crowd on the day the Tampa Derby is being run. I feel pretty sure they also promised Stay Thirsty would go in the FL Derby which would make that talk of his running in the Rebel a lot of BS.
Everybody has been dodging everybody and only giving two preps to try to get to the first Sat. in May. I don't think a lot of them even care if the horse is ready for the big one, just get there!
My whole point is that they don't come out with the truth, and try to con us, when anyone with a brain knows what they are up to. So don't believe the stories that trainers come up with because, for the most part, they are full of crap.
On to the races: I won't even discuss Uncle Mo's race except to say I hope the Rattlesnake bites him.
At Tampa I will have to stick with Brethren till he gets beat. This race looks to be tougher than the Sam Davis was but he looked to have plenty left in the tank when winning that one. Another point to remember when handicapping these prep races is not to pay too much attention to the speed ratings. Some of these horses have won so easily that they probably could have gone a lot faster as is the case with Brethren. Also, these young horses that are trying a distance for the first time may run much slower numbers as they stretch out and others may relish the longer distances. That is why I like my pedigree handicapping because it gives me a better idea of the potential at the longer distances.
I like the pedigrees on Striding Ahead and Watch Me Go but I'm curious about the jockey situation on those two. Garcia is back on Watch Me Go and I don't know if he's committed to the horse or if he likes it better than Striding Ahead. On the other hand, Solis is having a banner meet in FL and is back to some of his old time form and maybe Billy Mott would rather him than Garcia. Solis is really good coming from off the pace and that may be the ticket in this race. Another with a nice pedigree is Free Entry who stretched out a little last time for his second straight score and is coming up to his third race off the layoff.
There is some speed in this race and if Ramon sends Brethren early he may have some company up front.
1 --- Brethren.....didn't beat much in last but is still undefeated
2 --- Free Entry.....nice breeding and should be up to a big race
3 --- Striding Ahead....great pedigree...won first at the distance...question, will he improve or bounce?
4 --- Watch Me Go....nicely bred but couldn't get close to top one last time
A few in here were trying to close on Brethren last time but I think they just passed tired horses.
San Felipe; Looks like a very contentious race with no standout. There are only a couple of pedigrees in here that I like for the long haul. Bench Points has a very nice pedigree even though a CA bred. Is undefeated but has not met any good ones in open company. He's stretching out today but the way he runs it looks like he really wants more ground. Jaycito is another that's nicely bred. Has been up against some good ones and is now in Baffert's barn which should be a plus. There are some hard knockers in here like Comma To The Top and Premier Pegasus and a few newcomers to make it even more up for grabs.
1 --- Bench Points....I like his breeding...like his running style and seems to be a gritty type...not the least is he should be long odds.
2 --- Jaycito....like his breeding....already a grade 1 winner...good barn
3 --- Quail Hill...nice breeding...went 1 1/8 last time and wasn't far behind two nice ones in the Rbt. Lewis Stakes....will be a nice price and could take all the marbles.
Wide open race so I'm looking for value here and anyone can get a piece.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Gotham
The only TC race today of any real interest is the Gotham. If Stay Thirsty can't win this I'll probably write him off although he may be out of it anyway because of a lack of earnings.
As of now I'll go with him in this race but if he tries to wire them he may have a lot of company up front.
AQU R10 Gotham
#5 Stay Thirsty
#4 Toby's Corner
#2 Nacho Saint
#1 The Fed Eased
Backstretch
As of now I'll go with him in this race but if he tries to wire them he may have a lot of company up front.
AQU R10 Gotham
#5 Stay Thirsty
#4 Toby's Corner
#2 Nacho Saint
#1 The Fed Eased
Backstretch
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Common Denominators
Did you know that 8 of the last 12 derby winners have a common denominator in their pedigree? This pedigree factor is one of a few pedigree angles that I use to handicap the classics. A point to remember is that it doesn't take a classic pedigree to win the races leading up to the big ones but once we get to the 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 mile distances, it's a different ballgame.
There have been years when the derby has been won by horses that didn't have real classic breeding but that begs the question of whether any of the horses in those races had classic breeding.
I read comments all over the Internet concerning breeding and most comments, especially those of handicappers, dwell on the sire and what sire is hot this year. They are always going on about the distance limitations of certain sires and the races they have won or lost. Too much time is wasted on the immediate sire, period. Just as in handicapping, there are those who "Can't see the forest because of the trees".
To get back to the task at hand, which is to judge which horses have a shot to win the big one. I found a handful of nominees this year that had my preferred pedigree factors. A few are foreign horses and I don't know what is going on with them. I don't know if they are racing, if they are pointed to the derby or if they are injured. A few have been injured and one in particular, named Smash, is on the comeback but it's a little late to get started. He was my favorite as far as breeding and had one race which he won. I'm looking forward to seeing him run again soon.
As of the moment there are only a couple that have my pet breeding angles and one is Stay Thirsty. He will be going this week end in the Gotham. He is short on earnings and needs a win or two to make the derby. He doesn't look to have much to beat in the Gotham so if he can't win here he probably won't make the big show. If he does win and goes on to win another prep he will be a major factor in the derby.
My favorite for the derby right now is Archarcharch. I bet him in his recent win at 15/1 and am looking for him to win the Rebel which is shaping up to be a tough race. So far it looks like this is going to be the toughest field assembled so far this year and the derby winner could come from this race.
For those interested in future bets, I got down on Stay Thirsty at 40/1 with Twin-Spires but they had Archie in the field, but I managed to get down on him in Vegas @ 85/1. If he wins the Rebel he'll probably drop to 10/1 or so.
I'll be posting more later in the week.
Backstretch
There have been years when the derby has been won by horses that didn't have real classic breeding but that begs the question of whether any of the horses in those races had classic breeding.
I read comments all over the Internet concerning breeding and most comments, especially those of handicappers, dwell on the sire and what sire is hot this year. They are always going on about the distance limitations of certain sires and the races they have won or lost. Too much time is wasted on the immediate sire, period. Just as in handicapping, there are those who "Can't see the forest because of the trees".
To get back to the task at hand, which is to judge which horses have a shot to win the big one. I found a handful of nominees this year that had my preferred pedigree factors. A few are foreign horses and I don't know what is going on with them. I don't know if they are racing, if they are pointed to the derby or if they are injured. A few have been injured and one in particular, named Smash, is on the comeback but it's a little late to get started. He was my favorite as far as breeding and had one race which he won. I'm looking forward to seeing him run again soon.
As of the moment there are only a couple that have my pet breeding angles and one is Stay Thirsty. He will be going this week end in the Gotham. He is short on earnings and needs a win or two to make the derby. He doesn't look to have much to beat in the Gotham so if he can't win here he probably won't make the big show. If he does win and goes on to win another prep he will be a major factor in the derby.
My favorite for the derby right now is Archarcharch. I bet him in his recent win at 15/1 and am looking for him to win the Rebel which is shaping up to be a tough race. So far it looks like this is going to be the toughest field assembled so far this year and the derby winner could come from this race.
For those interested in future bets, I got down on Stay Thirsty at 40/1 with Twin-Spires but they had Archie in the field, but I managed to get down on him in Vegas @ 85/1. If he wins the Rebel he'll probably drop to 10/1 or so.
I'll be posting more later in the week.
Backstretch
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