There have been a few horses that have dropped out and by derby day there may be more. In light of that I'm doing a bit of revising but my top choices are staying the same.
Before I get to my list there are some comments I'd like to make. The first is that with these 3 yr olds about to enter uncharted territory when going the 1 1/4 in the derby, what they have done til now is no guarantee as to how they will handle the derby distance. Over the years the favorites have failed time and again and mostly because they couldn't handle the distance.
I remember reading that Baffert and Lukas said they paid no attention to pedigree and only looked at the athlete but changed their mind in later years after seeing so many stars meet their doom in the derby.
Another point is that no matter how well a horse is bred, nor how much latent talent it may have, if not handled properly it may just be mediocre.
One more little item concerning this years races: And that's been the change in training methods. In the case of Pletcher, he has usually dominated the prep races but when he got them to the derby, (over 20 of them) they flopped. I'm inclined to think that he felt that they were past their peak came derby time and decided to race them less, or to baby them, hoping they would peak at the right time. It seems like others are also following this trend. Personally, and I'm not alone on this, I think most of the horses going in the derby haven't raced enough to develop any toughness. They run one good race and need a month or more to recuperate. I will say that Zito usually has his horses primed at the right time and he puts a lot of bottom in his horses.
Now to my pedigree list:
1 -- MASTER OF HOUNDS...In my opinion this is the best bred colt in the race...I would pick him as the winner but for a couple questions...the word is that he is coming so I'll assume he is...how will he take to dirt? if he gets here and has a good work at CD that may help answer the question...who will ride him?..he had a terrible trip in the breeders cup and I blame it on the jock...the foreign jocks have a tendency to lay too far back in general...NOW the news...I read that Calvin Borel's agent is interested in getting the ride on this one...IF MOH gets a good work and Calvin gets the mount we could very well see Calvin win yet another derby...MOH has had one race this year and just got nosed at 1 3/16 ...
2 -- ARCHARCHARCH....his pedigree is almost a mirror image of BLAME'S...BLAME never really hit his stride until he was stretched out to 1 1/8 and was never worse than 2nd after that and both these loses were when a horse got loose on the lead and he couldn't catch it...so he won 8 of his last 10 and beat ZENYATTA....AAA is really way ahead of where BLAME was at this point...he's had 4 races already this year and looks to be getting better all the time...likes to come a little off the pace and has tactical speed to get position....This is the one to beat for my money!
#1 and 2 show me way more than the others as far as breeding.
3 -- UNCLE MO...has a nice pedigree but the stamina may be a little diluted by his sire line...he does have the speed to run with just about anyone and if he will rate just off the leaders he could get the jump on everyone..of course there are the lingering questions about his health but I'm still inclined to think he was short on condition in the Wood.
The rest with good pedigrees are; Stay Thirsty, Santiva, Anthony's Cross,Watch Me Go,Brilliant Speed, Soldat, Midnight Interlude, Dialed In, Animal Kingdom.
That's my derby dozen...I think one of the top 3 will win the race and any of the others can get a piece...might be some huge exotics.
UPDATE---Calvin has taken Twice The Appeal as his derby horse. I guess he did so because the connections of Master Of Hounds were not ready to commit yet.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Horses and Pigeons
Before I get into what I want to discuss it would be a good idea for you to click on the links. One is a little bit about pigeons and pigeon racing and the second is an article from Sports Illustrated about a Hall of Fame trainer, Hirsch Jacobs.
http://www.fbipigeons.com/PIGEON%20FACTS.htm
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1072721/1/index.htm
I met Hirsch Jacobs in the late fifties at a pigeon convention in Atlantic City. I had already been into handicapping for a number of years and I was very excited to meet him. When I let him know I was a pigeon flyer we commenced to have a nice conversation.
Since it was over 50 years ago, I don't remember what was said word for word. I had started to ask him questions about horses, even at that early time I was very interested in breeding, and he asked me how I was doing with the pigeon racing. I told him I was doing great even though I only kept a small number of birds. He told me that, "The same principals apply to horse racing as to pigeon racing, if you can breed and condition pigeons, you can do it with horses".
Of course, I never saw him again but I always kept his words in my mind. I bred and raced homing pigeons for over 30 years and had a lot of success at it. I won and placed in a lot of Futurity races. I had a lot of great moments with the birds but I especially remember the first race I ever flew. Actually I didn't fly, the bird did, but that's the term used when entering birds in a race. It was a 100 mile race from Carlisle, PA and normally would have been about a 2 hour race. It turned out that the birds hit a storm and out of over 7,000 birds in the race only 6 got home that day. My bird placed 6th but was the only bird home in my section and I won the club race, and all the money. Great feeling!
I still have a number of friends that are very prominent flyers and breeders that send birds all over the world to race. There is a lot of money in these races. A few of my friends send birds to the big race in Las Vegas, http://lvrpd.com/ and to the Snowbird in CA, http://www.fvcsnowbird.com/. We use to go out there for those races and one year one of our gang won pretty big. The real money is in the betting pools, and man do they bet. My buddie, who has also retired to the mountains and lives about 10 miles from me, won about $45,000. Mind you, this is all on a cash basis and when the bets are made a lot of it is done in small bills and that's what you get paid with. He and his wife had money stuffed everywhere when they left.
There is a race in Africa that's worth a million bucks and some huge ones in China, Japan and Europe.
Actually, the heart of pigeon racing was Belgium where it's THE national sport. And it was from Belgium that all the very best birds came from. A very close friend of mine, from boyhood days, starting importing birds from Belgium back in the early sixties and he soon was a top notch flyer around the country.
By now your probably wondering, what has this got to do with horse racing? I've tried to lay just a little ground work so you would know that pigeon racing in some countries is bigger than horse racing and there is a ton of money spent in it. I still have a few friends that own pigeons and race horses. One guy sells pigeons all over the world and races his horses at PRX.
My object of this writing is to show you how I applied what I learned from pigeon breeding to horse breeding. There are many ways to read a pedigree and most have their own interpretations. In my years of breeding racing birds I spent hundreds of hours making up and studying pedigrees. I observed the practical results and I pored over the pedigrees of fanciers whose birds were the most sought after in the world. I learned a lot and found it to be very useful to gauge the pedigrees of horses.
There is an old Viking proverb that says, "Tis better to marry the worst maiden from a good family, than to marry the best maiden from a bad family".
I found that the females were the real key to breeding good offspring. I could take any number of very good males and mate each with a number of hens. I might mate a particular cock (male) with many hens over a period of years and get a few nice ones. Doing this with a number of males and then switching them around over the course of many years I found, as did a lot of other breeders, that no matter who the males were, the best birds always came from basically the same hens. Pigeon breeders value champions because it proves that the inherent ability is there. But many breeders breed what we call stock birds. These are brothers or sisters to very high class birds but they are not raced. Stock birds are kept for breeding purposes and have a high degree of success breeding champions.
Not to get too long winded here, let me explain how I started applying this to horse racing. To begin with I'm sure you know all about the syndication of champion horses for breeding purposes. There are millions of dollars to be made and that is the reason that our champions are retired at an early age. The owners just can't wait for the money to start rolling in. A stallion can cover on average about 60 mares in a season but now they are to the point of shipping them to the southern hemisphere so as to cover another 60. Just do the math, about a hundred mares covered at say fifty thousand a pop and your talking serious money.
If a stallion covers a hundred mares a year that means about a thousand foals in ten years. Out of that thousand, how many are winners? How many are champions? I think it is a very small percentage of any kind of winners and a much smaller percentage of champions. And, I'm not quoting statistics even though I know they can be found with research, I would wager that most of the good ones have been produced by mares that almost always throw good ones. These same good producing mares will produce good ones with almost any good stallion. That is my opinion and that's the direction I take when looking at pedigrees.
Looking at the immediate stallion to try to determine if the offspring have the ability to conquer at the classic distances is virtually a waste of time. Looking at the distance capabilities of the sire doesn't mean a thing,as in Smarty Jones.
When a champion is found to be prepotent, which means the ability to pass on his good genes to another generation, such as Northern Dancer who was the grandson of the mighty Nearco, they are the foundation of a family of champions. Prepotent sires are really as scarce as hen's teeth. What a horse does on the track has nothing to do with what he may sire. Of course, in horse breeding or any type of breeding, breeders always try to breed the best to the best. This doesn't always work out in practise however. There have been some mighty good ones bred from unraced horses.
Another noteworthy item is sires that are able to pass on their genes through their daughters. One such is Nashua, although a great race horse in his own right, was never able to sire a champ. If you look through the pedigrees of a lot of champions you will see his name as the sire of great producing females.
Probably the greatest breeder of all time was Federico Tesio who bred Nearco and Ribot. Nearco was the son of Phalaris who I call the sire of modern racehorses. There is much written about the influence of the Native Dancer line through his son Mr. Prospector who was out of a daughter of Nashua.
So where are we today? In the last forty years or so there have been only 3 sires who have sired more than one derby winner. When Bold Ruler, who I consider one of the greatest horses of my time, I saw him run several times and he was truly magnificent winning 23 of 33 starts, sired Big Red it signaled the beginning of our modern racehorse. Being the son of Nasrullah and grandson of Nearco. Soon after his son Bold Bidder sired two derby winners. Another that sired two derby winners was Alydar who was himself, out of a daughter of Nasrullah.
So what I'm trying to say without writing a book about it is that today we have basically one family or line of horses that can all be traced back to Phalaris. The greatest percentage of champions are sired by the Nearco line or the dam is of that line.
When I look at a pedigree I look at the overall picture, not at individuals. Since my work has taught me that the females, who after all can only produce one foal a year, are where the pot of gold lies, the placement of the females in the pedigree is of the utmost importance.
Nine of the last 13 derby winners had a dam of the Nearco line. The other females in the pedigree must be properly placed in relation to the dam. I think a fun thing to do would be if those of you who like to read pedigrees would try to find the "Common Denominators" and post some comments about what you found. Of course you are welcome to tell me I'm full of crap also but that won't bother me because I've played about 75% of the derby winners in the last 15 years. Anyway, this is all a lot of fun to play with.
PS- If I don't die in the near future and can find the energy, I just might write that book.
Backstretch
http://www.fbipigeons.com/PIGEON%20FACTS.htm
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1072721/1/index.htm
I met Hirsch Jacobs in the late fifties at a pigeon convention in Atlantic City. I had already been into handicapping for a number of years and I was very excited to meet him. When I let him know I was a pigeon flyer we commenced to have a nice conversation.
Since it was over 50 years ago, I don't remember what was said word for word. I had started to ask him questions about horses, even at that early time I was very interested in breeding, and he asked me how I was doing with the pigeon racing. I told him I was doing great even though I only kept a small number of birds. He told me that, "The same principals apply to horse racing as to pigeon racing, if you can breed and condition pigeons, you can do it with horses".
Of course, I never saw him again but I always kept his words in my mind. I bred and raced homing pigeons for over 30 years and had a lot of success at it. I won and placed in a lot of Futurity races. I had a lot of great moments with the birds but I especially remember the first race I ever flew. Actually I didn't fly, the bird did, but that's the term used when entering birds in a race. It was a 100 mile race from Carlisle, PA and normally would have been about a 2 hour race. It turned out that the birds hit a storm and out of over 7,000 birds in the race only 6 got home that day. My bird placed 6th but was the only bird home in my section and I won the club race, and all the money. Great feeling!
I still have a number of friends that are very prominent flyers and breeders that send birds all over the world to race. There is a lot of money in these races. A few of my friends send birds to the big race in Las Vegas, http://lvrpd.com/ and to the Snowbird in CA, http://www.fvcsnowbird.com/. We use to go out there for those races and one year one of our gang won pretty big. The real money is in the betting pools, and man do they bet. My buddie, who has also retired to the mountains and lives about 10 miles from me, won about $45,000. Mind you, this is all on a cash basis and when the bets are made a lot of it is done in small bills and that's what you get paid with. He and his wife had money stuffed everywhere when they left.
There is a race in Africa that's worth a million bucks and some huge ones in China, Japan and Europe.
Actually, the heart of pigeon racing was Belgium where it's THE national sport. And it was from Belgium that all the very best birds came from. A very close friend of mine, from boyhood days, starting importing birds from Belgium back in the early sixties and he soon was a top notch flyer around the country.
By now your probably wondering, what has this got to do with horse racing? I've tried to lay just a little ground work so you would know that pigeon racing in some countries is bigger than horse racing and there is a ton of money spent in it. I still have a few friends that own pigeons and race horses. One guy sells pigeons all over the world and races his horses at PRX.
My object of this writing is to show you how I applied what I learned from pigeon breeding to horse breeding. There are many ways to read a pedigree and most have their own interpretations. In my years of breeding racing birds I spent hundreds of hours making up and studying pedigrees. I observed the practical results and I pored over the pedigrees of fanciers whose birds were the most sought after in the world. I learned a lot and found it to be very useful to gauge the pedigrees of horses.
There is an old Viking proverb that says, "Tis better to marry the worst maiden from a good family, than to marry the best maiden from a bad family".
I found that the females were the real key to breeding good offspring. I could take any number of very good males and mate each with a number of hens. I might mate a particular cock (male) with many hens over a period of years and get a few nice ones. Doing this with a number of males and then switching them around over the course of many years I found, as did a lot of other breeders, that no matter who the males were, the best birds always came from basically the same hens. Pigeon breeders value champions because it proves that the inherent ability is there. But many breeders breed what we call stock birds. These are brothers or sisters to very high class birds but they are not raced. Stock birds are kept for breeding purposes and have a high degree of success breeding champions.
Not to get too long winded here, let me explain how I started applying this to horse racing. To begin with I'm sure you know all about the syndication of champion horses for breeding purposes. There are millions of dollars to be made and that is the reason that our champions are retired at an early age. The owners just can't wait for the money to start rolling in. A stallion can cover on average about 60 mares in a season but now they are to the point of shipping them to the southern hemisphere so as to cover another 60. Just do the math, about a hundred mares covered at say fifty thousand a pop and your talking serious money.
If a stallion covers a hundred mares a year that means about a thousand foals in ten years. Out of that thousand, how many are winners? How many are champions? I think it is a very small percentage of any kind of winners and a much smaller percentage of champions. And, I'm not quoting statistics even though I know they can be found with research, I would wager that most of the good ones have been produced by mares that almost always throw good ones. These same good producing mares will produce good ones with almost any good stallion. That is my opinion and that's the direction I take when looking at pedigrees.
Looking at the immediate stallion to try to determine if the offspring have the ability to conquer at the classic distances is virtually a waste of time. Looking at the distance capabilities of the sire doesn't mean a thing,as in Smarty Jones.
When a champion is found to be prepotent, which means the ability to pass on his good genes to another generation, such as Northern Dancer who was the grandson of the mighty Nearco, they are the foundation of a family of champions. Prepotent sires are really as scarce as hen's teeth. What a horse does on the track has nothing to do with what he may sire. Of course, in horse breeding or any type of breeding, breeders always try to breed the best to the best. This doesn't always work out in practise however. There have been some mighty good ones bred from unraced horses.
Another noteworthy item is sires that are able to pass on their genes through their daughters. One such is Nashua, although a great race horse in his own right, was never able to sire a champ. If you look through the pedigrees of a lot of champions you will see his name as the sire of great producing females.
Probably the greatest breeder of all time was Federico Tesio who bred Nearco and Ribot. Nearco was the son of Phalaris who I call the sire of modern racehorses. There is much written about the influence of the Native Dancer line through his son Mr. Prospector who was out of a daughter of Nashua.
So where are we today? In the last forty years or so there have been only 3 sires who have sired more than one derby winner. When Bold Ruler, who I consider one of the greatest horses of my time, I saw him run several times and he was truly magnificent winning 23 of 33 starts, sired Big Red it signaled the beginning of our modern racehorse. Being the son of Nasrullah and grandson of Nearco. Soon after his son Bold Bidder sired two derby winners. Another that sired two derby winners was Alydar who was himself, out of a daughter of Nasrullah.
So what I'm trying to say without writing a book about it is that today we have basically one family or line of horses that can all be traced back to Phalaris. The greatest percentage of champions are sired by the Nearco line or the dam is of that line.
When I look at a pedigree I look at the overall picture, not at individuals. Since my work has taught me that the females, who after all can only produce one foal a year, are where the pot of gold lies, the placement of the females in the pedigree is of the utmost importance.
Nine of the last 13 derby winners had a dam of the Nearco line. The other females in the pedigree must be properly placed in relation to the dam. I think a fun thing to do would be if those of you who like to read pedigrees would try to find the "Common Denominators" and post some comments about what you found. Of course you are welcome to tell me I'm full of crap also but that won't bother me because I've played about 75% of the derby winners in the last 15 years. Anyway, this is all a lot of fun to play with.
PS- If I don't die in the near future and can find the energy, I just might write that book.
Backstretch
Friday, April 22, 2011
Derby Pedigree Contenders
It's getting down to crunch time. These are the contenders I have let that qualify on my pedigree angles. I basically have 2 pedigree angles that I use and one or the other angle has won 9 of the last 13 derbies. Of course their form must be taken into consideration so as of the moment I don't have them all listed in the exact order of preference. This list is in order of pedigree preference without regard to current form.
MASTER OF HOUNDS.....A super- duper pedigree that contains BOTH of my pedigree factors...there are a couple of ifs with him....is he really going to show up?....never raced on dirt so how will he take to it?...has a world class trainer that's been observing the preps so I don't think he would come unless he felt confident....has one race this year at Dubai and was nosed at 1 3/16 miles...has speed but likes to track leaders.
ARCHARCHARCH.....also has 2 of my angles working for him...this pedigree makes him almost a full brother to last years classic winner BLAME.....is in top form having just won the ARK DERBY....has speed to get position but runs best off the pace...can accelerate rapidly so he's able to get the jump on other closers.
UNCLE MO.....has 1 1/2 of my angles....has been mishandled so far this year in my opinion...regardless of the excuses I just think he was short on condition...is being treated for stomach infection so outlook is up in the air.
JAYCITO.........has a foot problem...has had only one race this year and has been off about 40 days...can't figure what Baffert is doing with him.
STAY THIRSTY.....didn't run a lick in FL DERBY....what happened?...a little upside is that he beat TOBY'S CORNER and that one came back to take the WOOD.
ANTHONY'S CROSS....was immediately taken back at the start in the SA DERBY...ran evenly and was only beaten 5 lengths....after his grade 2 win he was out almost 2 months...they say nothing was wrong....he could show a big improvement off his last....best races are on the pace...has shown a lot of gameness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM....has a lot of champion foreign horses in his pedigree and I don't quite know how I should read it....sharp race in last winning the SPIRIAL
SANTIVA....another that came off the bench last time and didn't do well...I assume this was a conditioning race since it was on the poly...also has some turf races but has shown a preference for dirt, especially at CD
WATCH ME GO....has tactical speed but was taken back a bit last time against soft fractions...JOE VANN, the winner of that race is a very good horse on a roll.
There are a few that I will give an honorable mention to; THE FACTOR, SOLDAT, BRILLIANT SPEED, and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE but these don't really tell me they can get the distance.
My pedigree angles are designed strictly for the classic distances and there are many horses that are brilliant at 1 1/8 but just can't get that other 1/8. Pedigree handicapping is not an exact science by any means but it does point to the horses able to get the classic distances.
When MINE THAT BIRD won the derby, 5 of the first 6 under the wire had one of my pedigree angles including the winner.
When everything is in I will give my final selections for the DERBY right here.
In the future I will be posting an article on how I go about pedigree handicapping and I know you will be surprised by how I came about learning these pedigree factors.
BACKSTRETCH
MASTER OF HOUNDS.....A super- duper pedigree that contains BOTH of my pedigree factors...there are a couple of ifs with him....is he really going to show up?....never raced on dirt so how will he take to it?...has a world class trainer that's been observing the preps so I don't think he would come unless he felt confident....has one race this year at Dubai and was nosed at 1 3/16 miles...has speed but likes to track leaders.
ARCHARCHARCH.....also has 2 of my angles working for him...this pedigree makes him almost a full brother to last years classic winner BLAME.....is in top form having just won the ARK DERBY....has speed to get position but runs best off the pace...can accelerate rapidly so he's able to get the jump on other closers.
UNCLE MO.....has 1 1/2 of my angles....has been mishandled so far this year in my opinion...regardless of the excuses I just think he was short on condition...is being treated for stomach infection so outlook is up in the air.
JAYCITO.........has a foot problem...has had only one race this year and has been off about 40 days...can't figure what Baffert is doing with him.
STAY THIRSTY.....didn't run a lick in FL DERBY....what happened?...a little upside is that he beat TOBY'S CORNER and that one came back to take the WOOD.
ANTHONY'S CROSS....was immediately taken back at the start in the SA DERBY...ran evenly and was only beaten 5 lengths....after his grade 2 win he was out almost 2 months...they say nothing was wrong....he could show a big improvement off his last....best races are on the pace...has shown a lot of gameness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM....has a lot of champion foreign horses in his pedigree and I don't quite know how I should read it....sharp race in last winning the SPIRIAL
SANTIVA....another that came off the bench last time and didn't do well...I assume this was a conditioning race since it was on the poly...also has some turf races but has shown a preference for dirt, especially at CD
WATCH ME GO....has tactical speed but was taken back a bit last time against soft fractions...JOE VANN, the winner of that race is a very good horse on a roll.
There are a few that I will give an honorable mention to; THE FACTOR, SOLDAT, BRILLIANT SPEED, and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE but these don't really tell me they can get the distance.
My pedigree angles are designed strictly for the classic distances and there are many horses that are brilliant at 1 1/8 but just can't get that other 1/8. Pedigree handicapping is not an exact science by any means but it does point to the horses able to get the classic distances.
When MINE THAT BIRD won the derby, 5 of the first 6 under the wire had one of my pedigree angles including the winner.
When everything is in I will give my final selections for the DERBY right here.
In the future I will be posting an article on how I go about pedigree handicapping and I know you will be surprised by how I came about learning these pedigree factors.
BACKSTRETCH
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Arkansas Recap
Horseplayers are really an odd lot. Reading the posts on some websites that are really into speed and pace handicapping makes me wonder about the logic being used by them. As the years go by and these horses with the "Figures" get beat time and time again the numbers boys come up with all kinds of theories as to why. They are really a joke.
Another one that makes me laugh are those handicappers that think they know something about pedigrees. The very first thing out of their mouth is the sire. The sire could or couldn't get the distance and a lot of other nonsense. As soon as they jump on the sire as their support for or against a horse I know they know nothing.
As to the AK Derby; I had to consider The Factor simply because of his speed. As I reported, his pedigree was doubtful as to the distance but sometimes a horse has enough speed to outrun his pedigree. In The Factor's case, it's my opinion that he suffered the same fate as horses like Hard Spun and Big Brown when they were defeated. Great runners but they were taken off their game by an attempt to rate them. Some horses take kindly to rating and some don't. They tried it with the free running Comma To The Top recently and it didn't work. The trainer then stated that in the SA Derby he was just going to let the horse go and he just got nipped. Speed is such an asset and to take a free running machine like The Factor and try to throttle him down is a huge mistake.
I have touted Arch as the best bred horse on the TC Trail all year and he proved something yesterday. Another that I liked is J W Blue but he was severely compromised by his post position yesterday. He won't make the KY Derby but don't count him out of the other races, he will be heard from.
I really couldn't understand all the hype about Elite Alex and didn't consider him all year as a major contender. Another case of pedigree readers placing all their faith in the immediate sire.
There are a couple of minor preps left but the next big stop on the trail is the big one. I will review them again and most will be eliminated although there is one that might jump into the fray that has superb classic breeding and I will discuss him in a future post.
Backstretch
Another one that makes me laugh are those handicappers that think they know something about pedigrees. The very first thing out of their mouth is the sire. The sire could or couldn't get the distance and a lot of other nonsense. As soon as they jump on the sire as their support for or against a horse I know they know nothing.
As to the AK Derby; I had to consider The Factor simply because of his speed. As I reported, his pedigree was doubtful as to the distance but sometimes a horse has enough speed to outrun his pedigree. In The Factor's case, it's my opinion that he suffered the same fate as horses like Hard Spun and Big Brown when they were defeated. Great runners but they were taken off their game by an attempt to rate them. Some horses take kindly to rating and some don't. They tried it with the free running Comma To The Top recently and it didn't work. The trainer then stated that in the SA Derby he was just going to let the horse go and he just got nipped. Speed is such an asset and to take a free running machine like The Factor and try to throttle him down is a huge mistake.
I have touted Arch as the best bred horse on the TC Trail all year and he proved something yesterday. Another that I liked is J W Blue but he was severely compromised by his post position yesterday. He won't make the KY Derby but don't count him out of the other races, he will be heard from.
I really couldn't understand all the hype about Elite Alex and didn't consider him all year as a major contender. Another case of pedigree readers placing all their faith in the immediate sire.
There are a couple of minor preps left but the next big stop on the trail is the big one. I will review them again and most will be eliminated although there is one that might jump into the fray that has superb classic breeding and I will discuss him in a future post.
Backstretch
Friday, April 15, 2011
Arkansas Derby-------Blue Grass
The AK Derby looks to be the deepest prep so far this year. With all the contenders that have been sidelined or have not run well, this race may produce the top contenders in the KY Derby.
I like several horses in here but I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. I will stick with my pedigree colts but I also have to include The Factor. He may not have the pedigree for 1 1/4 miles but I feel he's bred well enough to get 1 1/8. The way he's been running he may outrun his pedigree anyway.
So, I will use The Factor on top along with Archarcharch who is my #1 pedigree horse. The other pedigrees I like are Alternation and J W Blue with a touch of Truman's Commander. Of the others it's hard to discount anyone. Brethren may bounce back and Elite Alex may do much better from the rail with Calvin
I'm going with 2 horses on top because I believe one of them will win this.
1 - #4 The Factor
1 - #9 Archarcharch
2 - #1 Alternation
3 - #11 J W Blue
4 - #5 Brethren....I had orginally posted the wrong name here
Some of this field must win this in order to make the show so it's do or die. I also think the post positions will be a biggy with closers going from the outside having their work cut out.
One play I will make, among others, is a tri of 4,9/4,9/All
Blue Grass: A lot of turf runners in here so it's tough to get a good line on them so once again I'll use my pedigrees to handicap them.
1 - #11 Crimson China
2 - #3 Santiva
3 - #12 Queen'splatekitten
4 - # 5 Brilliant Speed
5 - #1 Newsdad
I like several horses in here but I have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. I will stick with my pedigree colts but I also have to include The Factor. He may not have the pedigree for 1 1/4 miles but I feel he's bred well enough to get 1 1/8. The way he's been running he may outrun his pedigree anyway.
So, I will use The Factor on top along with Archarcharch who is my #1 pedigree horse. The other pedigrees I like are Alternation and J W Blue with a touch of Truman's Commander. Of the others it's hard to discount anyone. Brethren may bounce back and Elite Alex may do much better from the rail with Calvin
I'm going with 2 horses on top because I believe one of them will win this.
1 - #4 The Factor
1 - #9 Archarcharch
2 - #1 Alternation
3 - #11 J W Blue
4 - #5 Brethren....I had orginally posted the wrong name here
Some of this field must win this in order to make the show so it's do or die. I also think the post positions will be a biggy with closers going from the outside having their work cut out.
One play I will make, among others, is a tri of 4,9/4,9/All
Blue Grass: A lot of turf runners in here so it's tough to get a good line on them so once again I'll use my pedigrees to handicap them.
1 - #11 Crimson China
2 - #3 Santiva
3 - #12 Queen'splatekitten
4 - # 5 Brilliant Speed
5 - #1 Newsdad
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Wood...SA Derby....Illinois Derby
I won't bother with the Wood because it's an unbettable race for me. I can't go against UNCLE MO and if he wins, as he should, there's no value to be had.
The SA Derby looks to be very competitive and there could be some value in it. PREMIER PEGASUS will be the likely favorite but I think he can be beat. He made a quick move in the San Felipe and got the jump on the other closers but this is a different field at a longer distance.
My pedigree picks:
1 - ANTHONY"S CROSS....dueled TAPIZAR for the lead for 3/4s in a fast pace...got the lead in the stretch and battled RIVETING REASON all the way to the wire and hung on in a very game effort...I think he may get another stalking position behind the leaders who should be COMMA TO THE TOP and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE...my only knock against him is he's had over 45 days since his last race.
- JAYCITO....needed his last...dropped too far back and was left with too much to do...he does have speed and if Baffert has him cranked should be closer to the pace..SCRATCHED?
2 - COMMA TO THE TOP....Things look a little different with the scratches...very little speed now
3 - BENCH POINTS.......was another with too much to do in last...gets Rafy back in the saddle...really looks like he'll like the extra distance.
4 - MR. COMMONS....I really like his old classic breeding...NEARCO inbred....I really wouldn't be surprised if he got it all.
5 - QUAIL HILL...another that couldn't get into the race last time...good 3rd in the R. LEWIS
There are 3-4 others that could upset in here...all depends on how the race shapes up...I feel Baffert has a rabbit in here in MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE so Jaycito is sure to have some pace up front...
Illinois Derby:
1 - JOE VANN....superbly bred...was a little late developing but looks to be on a roll now.
2 - WATCH ME GO....I picked this one for 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and he won at 40/1...he's a late nominee to the KY Derby..
3 - EL GRAYLING...good race 2nd back against SHACKELFORD...
4 - ZOEBEAR...ran 2nd to TAPIZAR last year...still a maiden but is always in the hunt.
The SA Derby looks to be very competitive and there could be some value in it. PREMIER PEGASUS will be the likely favorite but I think he can be beat. He made a quick move in the San Felipe and got the jump on the other closers but this is a different field at a longer distance.
My pedigree picks:
1 - ANTHONY"S CROSS....dueled TAPIZAR for the lead for 3/4s in a fast pace...got the lead in the stretch and battled RIVETING REASON all the way to the wire and hung on in a very game effort...I think he may get another stalking position behind the leaders who should be COMMA TO THE TOP and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE...my only knock against him is he's had over 45 days since his last race.
- JAYCITO....needed his last...dropped too far back and was left with too much to do...he does have speed and if Baffert has him cranked should be closer to the pace..SCRATCHED?
2 - COMMA TO THE TOP....Things look a little different with the scratches...very little speed now
3 - BENCH POINTS.......was another with too much to do in last...gets Rafy back in the saddle...really looks like he'll like the extra distance.
4 - MR. COMMONS....I really like his old classic breeding...NEARCO inbred....I really wouldn't be surprised if he got it all.
5 - QUAIL HILL...another that couldn't get into the race last time...good 3rd in the R. LEWIS
There are 3-4 others that could upset in here...all depends on how the race shapes up...I feel Baffert has a rabbit in here in MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE so Jaycito is sure to have some pace up front...
Illinois Derby:
1 - JOE VANN....superbly bred...was a little late developing but looks to be on a roll now.
2 - WATCH ME GO....I picked this one for 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and he won at 40/1...he's a late nominee to the KY Derby..
3 - EL GRAYLING...good race 2nd back against SHACKELFORD...
4 - ZOEBEAR...ran 2nd to TAPIZAR last year...still a maiden but is always in the hunt.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Patience Pays
Of all the failures of horse players, lack of patience must be at the top of the list. Most bettors act like today is the last day racing will ever be held.
How many players can go to the track and play their best bet in the first race and, win or lose, turn around and go home. If you can't do that your going to be forever a loser.
I have many clients that come and go. When they make a score they start betting every race at every track on the map. They soon go broke and inform me that they have to take some time off. They build a little bankroll and come back to my service and then go through the whole process again.
On the other hand, I have clients that have been with me for years and they have patience and know how to manage their money. The winning players know that days may go by without my having a play. They also know that losing streaks are a part of every one's game. The ones with patience to wait for a play know that, despite the losing streaks, the winners will come.
Whether a player is handicapping themselves or subscribing to a service like mine, they must develop the patience to wait for good plays. Of course I'm not talking about handicappers that use computer programs and bet a jillion races and hope to catch a big enough percentage of winners to turn a profit.
I am a spot player and I know there are other spot players out there but I believe we are a minority. I like the idea of a couple plays a day on average. Days with no plays are welcomed by me because there is a life without horses. I tried sitting all day and playing race after race and it doesn't take long to become jaded. I like the idea of a couple of bets a day and having the rest of the day to do as I please.
Even when spot playing, the PPs have to be looked at every day to determine if there are any plays to be had. After a lot of years this relatively short time can become a drag and when that happens you start to lose interest and begin to get sloppy. When that happens I shorten the week and only play 3 or 4 days.
When one operates in this manner it becomes second nature to develop patience. When you skip days you realize that the races are still there the next day. Unless your a degenerate gambler, you will welcome the breaks in the action and make better choices in your betting.
I am glad to answer questions or discuss handicapping. Just leave a comment or you may e-mail me and I answer all. backstretch33@gmail.com
How many players can go to the track and play their best bet in the first race and, win or lose, turn around and go home. If you can't do that your going to be forever a loser.
I have many clients that come and go. When they make a score they start betting every race at every track on the map. They soon go broke and inform me that they have to take some time off. They build a little bankroll and come back to my service and then go through the whole process again.
On the other hand, I have clients that have been with me for years and they have patience and know how to manage their money. The winning players know that days may go by without my having a play. They also know that losing streaks are a part of every one's game. The ones with patience to wait for a play know that, despite the losing streaks, the winners will come.
Whether a player is handicapping themselves or subscribing to a service like mine, they must develop the patience to wait for good plays. Of course I'm not talking about handicappers that use computer programs and bet a jillion races and hope to catch a big enough percentage of winners to turn a profit.
I am a spot player and I know there are other spot players out there but I believe we are a minority. I like the idea of a couple plays a day on average. Days with no plays are welcomed by me because there is a life without horses. I tried sitting all day and playing race after race and it doesn't take long to become jaded. I like the idea of a couple of bets a day and having the rest of the day to do as I please.
Even when spot playing, the PPs have to be looked at every day to determine if there are any plays to be had. After a lot of years this relatively short time can become a drag and when that happens you start to lose interest and begin to get sloppy. When that happens I shorten the week and only play 3 or 4 days.
When one operates in this manner it becomes second nature to develop patience. When you skip days you realize that the races are still there the next day. Unless your a degenerate gambler, you will welcome the breaks in the action and make better choices in your betting.
I am glad to answer questions or discuss handicapping. Just leave a comment or you may e-mail me and I answer all. backstretch33@gmail.com
Monday, April 4, 2011
Florida Derby Recap
I'm trying to figure out what that race really decided. As I suspected, nobody really wanted the lead. Soldat and Flashpoint never tried for it and, in my opinion, Shackleford kind of inherited the lead.
A lot of pace and speed handicappers say the pace was fast and the track was favoring speed. If that's true, why did Soldat and Flashpoint back up? Not only did they not close as they had intended to do but they backed up even though they wern't that close to the pace. Very strange race in my opinion.
They say Dialed In closed on a fast pace with slow late fractions. What happened to Stay Thirsty and Soldat? Why didn't they close? As happened to Hard Spun and Big Brown, I think when you take a speed horse off his game, in most cases, they don't run good.
Dialed In may be the real goods but I still have doubts because he just nipped the front runner at the wire and those two were the only ones running at the finish. This makes two FL derbys in a row for Zito with the same type horses. He doesn't have many now-a-days but he sure knows how to get them ready.
I still feel that the KY Derby winner is going to come out of the AK races. It may or may not be The Factor but we'll know more after the AK Derby. He blew the field away in the Rebel but he was also the lone speed in that race and most of the time a lone speed winner will put up a life time mark. We have to see what happens if he's challenged, if anyone is able to do that.
Some big races on tap for next week and I'll look at them later in the week.
Backstretch
A lot of pace and speed handicappers say the pace was fast and the track was favoring speed. If that's true, why did Soldat and Flashpoint back up? Not only did they not close as they had intended to do but they backed up even though they wern't that close to the pace. Very strange race in my opinion.
They say Dialed In closed on a fast pace with slow late fractions. What happened to Stay Thirsty and Soldat? Why didn't they close? As happened to Hard Spun and Big Brown, I think when you take a speed horse off his game, in most cases, they don't run good.
Dialed In may be the real goods but I still have doubts because he just nipped the front runner at the wire and those two were the only ones running at the finish. This makes two FL derbys in a row for Zito with the same type horses. He doesn't have many now-a-days but he sure knows how to get them ready.
I still feel that the KY Derby winner is going to come out of the AK races. It may or may not be The Factor but we'll know more after the AK Derby. He blew the field away in the Rebel but he was also the lone speed in that race and most of the time a lone speed winner will put up a life time mark. We have to see what happens if he's challenged, if anyone is able to do that.
Some big races on tap for next week and I'll look at them later in the week.
Backstretch
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Florida Derby
Compared to what we've seen so far, this looks like the "Clash of the Titans". At least half the field might be considered legitimate contenders at this stage of the game.
I'm still following my pedigree method of handicapping for the TC but that doesn't mean a horse not bred for the classic distances can't win in these prep races.
In post position order:
#1...SOLDAT....has a decent pedigree...has been very consistent against what might be the best company...has the most experience...has won on dirt and grass...has two 2nds against 2 very good turf horses in Pluck and Air Support....hard to fault him in this field.
#2...TO HONOR AND SERVE...another with a nice but not great pedigree...was really good as a 2 yr old...one race this year and was quite short in that one...Mott expects a big improvement and if so could come up to the Derby sitting on his best.
#3...ARCH TRAVELER...very nicely bred....hasn't thrown a bad race yet but hasn't been tested either...won last at this distance but in slow time....jumping into the fire here so I'll wait to see what happens.
#4...BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY....I don't think he has classic breeding....has managed some minor awards but looks to be a cut below these.
#5... SHACKLEFORD...another with only fair breeding...nice win in fast time in next to last but that may have been the best he can do...I think he bounced last time...might bounce back but I don't think he's good enough at this level.
#6...STAY THIRSTY...very nice pedigree...had a long break but came out running....was taken off the pace a little in last and responded well...doesn't have to win this but if it's a good closing effort it would set him up nicely for the big one.
#7...DIALED IN...I'm not in love with his breeding ...to be honest, I have my doubts about him getting the derby distance...he does have Zito in his favor and Nick knows how to put some bottom in his horses...he may be good enough to beat this field.
#8...FLASHPOINT...even though his dosage is kind of high I do see some stamina in there...looks to be very fast and blew away Travelin Man in last...he may not have run his best yet and if that's true he could run away from these.
The key to this race is; Who's going to the front? They plan to lay SOLDAT off the pace, blinkers on THIRSTY to try to get closer to the pace, looks like everyone else plan to lay back except THAS who looks like he wants to be on the pace. Dutrow says FLASHPOINT doesn't need the lead so there may be a battle to stay off the lead. I kind of think FLASH, with his natural speed, will get the lead whether he wants it or not and it may be an easy lead. If nobody presses him he can take them a long way.
My picks:
STAY THIRSTY
FLASHPOINT
SOLDAT
TO HONOR AND SERVE
DIALED IN
I'm still following my pedigree method of handicapping for the TC but that doesn't mean a horse not bred for the classic distances can't win in these prep races.
In post position order:
#1...SOLDAT....has a decent pedigree...has been very consistent against what might be the best company...has the most experience...has won on dirt and grass...has two 2nds against 2 very good turf horses in Pluck and Air Support....hard to fault him in this field.
#2...TO HONOR AND SERVE...another with a nice but not great pedigree...was really good as a 2 yr old...one race this year and was quite short in that one...Mott expects a big improvement and if so could come up to the Derby sitting on his best.
#3...ARCH TRAVELER...very nicely bred....hasn't thrown a bad race yet but hasn't been tested either...won last at this distance but in slow time....jumping into the fire here so I'll wait to see what happens.
#4...BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY....I don't think he has classic breeding....has managed some minor awards but looks to be a cut below these.
#5... SHACKLEFORD...another with only fair breeding...nice win in fast time in next to last but that may have been the best he can do...I think he bounced last time...might bounce back but I don't think he's good enough at this level.
#6...STAY THIRSTY...very nice pedigree...had a long break but came out running....was taken off the pace a little in last and responded well...doesn't have to win this but if it's a good closing effort it would set him up nicely for the big one.
#7...DIALED IN...I'm not in love with his breeding ...to be honest, I have my doubts about him getting the derby distance...he does have Zito in his favor and Nick knows how to put some bottom in his horses...he may be good enough to beat this field.
#8...FLASHPOINT...even though his dosage is kind of high I do see some stamina in there...looks to be very fast and blew away Travelin Man in last...he may not have run his best yet and if that's true he could run away from these.
The key to this race is; Who's going to the front? They plan to lay SOLDAT off the pace, blinkers on THIRSTY to try to get closer to the pace, looks like everyone else plan to lay back except THAS who looks like he wants to be on the pace. Dutrow says FLASHPOINT doesn't need the lead so there may be a battle to stay off the lead. I kind of think FLASH, with his natural speed, will get the lead whether he wants it or not and it may be an easy lead. If nobody presses him he can take them a long way.
My picks:
STAY THIRSTY
FLASHPOINT
SOLDAT
TO HONOR AND SERVE
DIALED IN
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