Last year I had the first 5 finishers in correct order and that was posted on the web. I could only hope that would happen this year.If I recall, last years race seemed a lot easier to handicap. I think the key to handicapping this race is a correct analysis of the derby.
Trainers and jockeys read the racing form just like handicappers do. They try to decide where the speed is and how the race is going to shape up. In the derby there looked to be plenty of speed in it and almost everyone decided to lay off the pace figuring that with a fast pace the speed would fold up and set it up for a closer. They outsmarted themselves though when Shackleford went to the lead and nobody challenged him.The only jock that realized how slow they were going was Nakatani on Nehro. Nehro is normally a closer and after a half finds himself sitting second. Now there are some that contend that the pace wasn't all that slow but that the track made for the slow fractions. I don't agree with that because in my opinion Nehro would have quit if that was the case. I say the pace was extremely slow and if not for that Shackleford would have been no where to be found at the finish. In addition, there would have been a lot more horses coming at the end. All the closers laid too far off that slow pace and didn't have a chance. So much for jockeys having a clock in their head.
If I am correct in my analysis it makes Animal Kingdom's race all the more remarkable. Had there been some pace and the front runners had backed up he would have probably have won by 10 or more lengths or more.
I expect more pace in the Preakness for a couple of reasons. There are 3-4 in here that have natural speed and there are a few others that are going to be asked for speed. I would think most don't want to get caught with their pants down again.
Here are my selections for the Preakness; as to the pedigrees, except for the top one they are fairly close in potential.
#11 - Animal Kingdom 2/1.....this years races have seem to come down to the survival of the fittest and this one looks to be fit....has done everything right so far while the rest have had one excuse after another...nothing seems to bother him and until he does something wrong I will stick with him.
#8 - Dance City 12/1....there have been a couple horses this year that have come off very similar races and went on to win their next race...I don't think Ramon, who really knows this track, will battle for the lead with the 4 and 5...the big question is, will he be rated and will he take to stalking?
#3 - King Congie 20/1....your probably wondering how I can pick this one...a couple reasons...one is that he really should have won the Bluegrass but had a rough trip... another is that Brilliant speed, who won the Bluegrass ran a very good race in the derby finishing 7th but only beaten a nose by the 5th and 6th horses...another is that the horses coming off the turf and poly seem to moving forward on the dirt this year and this one has been working on the dirt at Belmont...another point is that, when he is right, Robby is, in my opinion, one of the best jocks riding and is a helluva improvement over Rajiv who seems to have a knack for getting into trouble unless he's on a front runner...and wouldn't it be something if Robby, who lost the ride on Animal Kingdom to JR, were to win this...talk about ironic!
#1 - Astrology 15/1....one of the better pedigrees in here...I don't know why he was so late getting started this year but has been playing catch-up...has some tactical speed and should get good position behind the leaders from the rail...knowing Mike likes to sit he may have a good kick turning for home...I also think he's finally coming around and is sitting on a big race.
#9 - Mucho Macho Man 6/1...has been steady all year and is still maturing...should be in the hunt if Rajiv doesn't screw him up.
Honorable mention: Shackleford, Mr Commons, Isn't He Perfect
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