Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Newsletter # 54 Recap


Newsletter #54

GP  Sat. 1/26/13  The Holy Bull  G3

As I had hoped, under the new point system for the derby, we are seeing another really competitive race with a decent sized field. If we were still under the earnings system most would be dodging Shanghai Bobby and this would probably be a 6 horse field. It looks like the trainers realize they are going to have to go head to head and not waste their chances by shopping around for an easy spot.

It's kind of hard to go against Shanghai Bobby considering he's undefeated after 5 races. I don't think he will get the derby distance with those RAN mares in key spots but this is within his scope. He should be tough in here but this is not to say he's a lock. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get beat as a lot of other BC horses do in their first race of the new year.

I like the pedigree of Frac Daddy with the Damascus cross coming back into the Northern Dancer line. He just lost a hard fought battle with Uncaptured in a race with slow time but I had mentioned that race in my last newsletter and I can't discount horses from that race because of time. Fear The Kitten was in that race and came back to run well and I expect this one to do the same.

Clearly Now is another Canadian hoping to get on the derby bandwagon and although nicely bred, I'll take a wait and see attitude with him.

Bern Identity has been right there in all his races but I don't care much for his pedigree but he should hold his own at this distance. Paco made the right choice between horses in the GP Derby and is getting off the winner of that race to stick with this one.

Sr. Quisqueyano was beaten again by Itsmyluckyday in his last in what was a pretty quick race. He's been pretty steady but may be just a cut below a few of these and I don't care much for his breeding for the classics.

Dewey Square is a nice colt with some classic potential. He was beaten by Frac Daddy last time but didn't have the best of trips. He's had a nice series of works since his last and threw a bullet in his last one. I do wonder about the 2 weeks between his last work in Dec. and his next in Jan. Seems like there should have been another work in there.

I picked Itsmyluckyday last time and he really blew them away but after Purple Egg was scratched it didn't leave much to beat. That race had a really quick pace but I think the last part was kind of slow considering how fast the track was that day. Of course, I have no way of knowing, but I wonder why Paco is not back on him after that big number he ran last time. And, you can be sure he will get a lot of action off that big Beyer which will probably make him an underlay. I will probably make a mistake with this one because I love his pedigree. I don't know if I think he will bounce or what but I just feel this isn't his race

I really like this out crossed pedigree of Tulira Castle and you might think I'm off my rocker for liking this one but I do. His dosage is too high for the dosage boys but his breeding tells me he can get a distance. His dam side has some great distance runners in it and many called Bold Ruler a sprinter but there have been more than a few derby winners derived from that line. Although this may be too soon for this horse as he probably needs some seasoning, I still like him and give him a shot to make a race of it.

Fredericksburg is another with a nice pedigree but he hasn't run to it as yet. He's only had one dirt race and ran well but I will wait to see if he shows more improvement.

1- Frac Daddy
2- Shanghai Bobby
3- Dewey Square
4- Bern Identity
Long Shot- Tulira Castle

RECAP
I really made a big boo-boo in this one. Even though I really like the pedigree of Itsmyluckyday I thought he might have peaked in his last and would regress somewhat. I normally go with the ones that have the breeding that I like best if they show any talent at all but I got cute here and tried to predict something that is difficult to forcast.

Not only did Itsmyluckyday beat an undefeated Shanghai Bobby but also broke the track record. His pedigree told me he could of had more in the tank but I chose to ignore it which was big mistake.

It turned out to be a two horse race as these two were in a zone of their own. I don't see Bobby getting the derby distance but the paper of IMLD tells me he can handle any distance.

I had mentioned in a recent post that I thought this was one of the best crops I had ever seen and that I noticed a trend toward bringing a cross into these inbred horses that we have been seeing for some years now. I love these out crossed horses and as of the moment my top rated four on the year are a result of a cross in the pedigree. Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow and Violence are ones that I feel can get the derby distance and they all have that advantage of speed that they have shown they are able to sustain. I have a piece in the works about these type horses which I will post as soon as I get around to finishing it.
Backstretch

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Newsletter #53 Recap


Newsletter  #53  Sat. 1/19/13

FG  R10  The LeComte  G3

This is only a G3 race but it does carry qualifying points for the KY Derby. There are only a couple in here that have tried a graded race and only a few that have tried a distance other than a sprint, so we have a field of untried horses, some of which, may may turn out to be nice ones as they mature a little more.

I don't find much fault with any of these as far as their breeding is concerned. There may be a couple who have pedigrees that are more of the type I favor but most have the papers that say they have classic potential. But, as we all know, no matter how well bred they all are, some will have more talent than others. At this stage of the game I tend to not put too much weight on any speed figures that may cause one to eliminate what look like slower horses. There is still much room for improvement in these types and many times we will see a dramatic increase in speed figures. On the other hand, there are sometimes races, as with the KyJC race, where the race is unusually slow for some reason or other. Even though that was a slow race that was won by Uncaptured, I wouldn't discount him in future races by any means

I'm going to go with Oxbow in this race for several reasons. One, I love his pedigree with the out cross in the Man'O War dam sire line. Another reason I like him is because of his last race that was won by Violence. I am actually down grading the performance of the winner of that because of the very fast pace that was contested by 4 horses. The last part of the race was a little slow and Violence had a perfect rail trip sitting just off the leaders. On the other hand, even though Fury Kapcori held very well to get second, Oxbow had a very strenuous trip. He ran very wide around the first turn and was pushed hard to get to the leaders. He then dropped back slightly and proceeded to make an early run at the leaders around the turn and drew about even. After being passed by several horses he came back again to get fourth. I thought he ran a very game race and was really hurt by the outside post. He has a lot of speed but also showed on the backstretch he could be rated a little. There's quite a bit of speed in this race and he may get good position behind the leaders with this post position.

Avie's Quality has had 4 races at over a mile and been right there every time but they were on the turf and poly so the question is, how will he handle dirt? This type usually handles the switch and sometimes run big numbers and as far as the figs go, he has the best in here. I just wonder how he will handle a fast paced race. He may not get into it soon enough so that even with a good late run he may fall a little short.

I think Golden Soul will see some action on the board because of the way he won his last but he only beat 4 others in that and it had a very slow pace. He did overcome a quick pace in his first start when he ran second so it's hard to say what he might do here.

Circle Unbroken is a nicely bred horse and has already won a graded race although it was a sprint. He was beaten in his last by a pretty nice colt but I think he came out of that with an injury and has been off for over 5 months. The question is, does he need this race? The trainer said he may not be ready but wants to get a race into him. I kind of think he may be scratched.

Malibu High has one of those speedy pedigrees with a lot of influence from Mr Prospector mares and though usually not suited for the derby distance, they can be really good at this distance. He's 2 for 2 so he knows where the line is. Calvin is hurt so Mena picks up the mount and he's very good and under rated.

I like the pedigree of Hawaakom and he was a nice maiden winner in his first try at a distance. His time was on the slow side but, as I've said, I don't like to discount young horses because of that factor.

Fear The Kitten broke last in his most recent race but was making up ground in a slow paced race. The first 2 finishers in that are real nice colts, especially Uncaptured, so I think that race was a lot better than the figures would indicate.

This is probably a wide open race and a good case could be made for most of them. They all have nice breeding and they all seem to be in good form off their most recent races. It's all according to how this race is run and I think the key will be if Oxbow will rate.

1- Oxbow
2- Malibu High
3- Avie's Quality
4- Fear The Kitten
Long Shots-  Golden Soul and Hawaakom

Another point I want to mention concerns the derby point system. I just read an article and from what one trainer says, I think it indicates that we aren't going to see all that dodging we have seen in the past. If they want to get to the derby they are going to have to face all comers and not just be able to pick easy spots to make it. Naturally, there will probably be some tweaks to the system but I think we will see a better field for the derby without the sprinters and those that have won one big 2 yr old race. After all, these are 3 yr old colts and just because a couple may have had an edge as a baby, that alone should not be enough to put them in the big show.

This is the link to the article:
http://www.drf.com/news/road-kentucky-derby-has-new-map

Backstretch
RECAP
I was a little surprised that Oxbow got the lead so easily because I thought a few of the sprinters would try for the lead. I guess the OX has a lot more speed than I thought. As I said, that race in the Cashcall was so much better than it looked on paper. After the Cash I had said to keep an eye on Oxbow because I was very impressed with his race. One can't just go on what the PPs say and it really pays to go back and look at races, that is, if one actually knows how to look at a race. Blowing this field away by 11 lengths puts him right up there with the point leaders and I probably like his pedigree better than any I've seen so far.

Golden Soul was a good second but I don't know how much that might mean in the future because he caught a bunch of horses that were simply worn out trying to stay close to the winner.

The same goes for Fear The Kitten who came on to be third. I did like the sneaky good race he ran last time against Uncaptured. That race was a little odd because of the slow time but regardless of the time, the first two in that race are nice colts.

Looking ahead, I have an idea that Oxbow will rate a little off the pace if it's called for and he will probably have a good kick from there. He was ridden by Jon Court and I hope Lukas stays with him because I'd really like to see Jon get to the derby again after having that hard luck with Archarcharch.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Newsletter #51 Recap


Newsletter  # 51  Sat. 1/5/13

AQU  R8  Jerome  G2

Not sure, but I don't think this race carries points toward the KY Derby although it's being used as a prep.

There are several in here with very nice pedigrees and at this point it might be kind of difficult to separate them. I really like the pedigrees of the top two choices. Vyjack has had 2 races and won them both but at a little shorter distance than today's race but his breeding tells me he should have no problem with most any distance.

Long River has a super pedigree with a nice out cross in it. He's already won at today's distance and that might give him a little edge. Has a bullet work since his last so should be on his toes for this.

Mudflats was a recent purchase so I suppose the buyers think he has a lot of upside to him. He broke his maiden last time at 7f, the same distance that Vyjack won at and both races were in the slop. They both won easily but Vyjack won a little added money race rather than a maiden so he may have a slight class edge right now.

Vegas No Show has a speedy looking pedigree which I don't think will stand him in good stead down the road at longer distances but this isn't a longer distance.

I don't see much chance for any value in this race unless there is a major upset which doesn't seem likely.

1- Vyjack
2- Long River
3- Mudflats
4- Vegas No Show
Long Shot- Notacatbutallama

The Sham G3

This is only a G3 but it does carry 10 derby points to the winner. This is another race where I don't see much value because I think the chalk will be really tough.

Goldencents is one that I had picked a couple of times because he is nicely bred and has been performing well. He ran a bang-up race against the BC winner, Shanghai Bobby, and came right back to wire them in the Delta jackpot beating a fairly nice colt, Bern Identity. Has a ton of speed and stamina to go with it. We don't find very many of this type and he could be a major player in the TC races.

Den's Legacy has a decent pedigree and ran third last time in the Cash-Call but was trying to close in that one against Violence. That race had a very fast pace with 4 horses doing battle for the lead all the way. Violence sat a perfect trip in that one but the horse that was on the lead the whole race hung in for second. My feeling is that Den's Legacy should have been able to catch the tiring leader but wasn't up to it. I may be wrong in my judgement of that race so I suppose Den may be better than I think.

I like the breeding of Dry Summer and had picked him for the money in the Front Runner but he didn't run a lick. He's been off for a couple of months and my feeling is they are trying to get back to square one with him. He has a nice series of 5 & 6f works and just might show some kick here.

Manando is another Baffert runner who has a very speedy type pedigree and blew them away in his first try at a little more distance. Cutting back slightly and if he runs to his last he could give the favorite a battle on the front end. My feeling is that if he goes for the lead Goldencents will put him away.

1- Goldencents
2- Dry Summer
3- Den's Legacy
4- Manando
RECAP
The Jerome wasn't a G2 race by means. Vyjack was the favorite and he is all out to beat a horse that may only be a decent allowance horse. I don't think any of those, including the winner, are going anywhere on the TC trail.

The Sham didn't have much in it either aside from Goldencents. He looks like he will make his presence felt down the line because he has good speed and looks to be able to carry it a distance. I liked that he rated just off the leader and had a good closing kick. Speed is always an advantage and he seems to be able to sustain it. All in all, I think he's a very nice horse and if he continues to mature and improve he is going to give them a lot of trouble in the longer races.
Backstretch



Thursday, January 3, 2013

Newsletter # 50 Recap


Newsletter # 50

GP  R9  1/1/13  Gulfstream Park Derby

This is not a graded race for 3 yr olds but I found it to be of interest for a couple of reasons. One is that aside from about 5 horses, the rest of the horses on the TC trail seem to be kind of ordinary so any contenders could come from anywhere. Another item that interested me is the pedigrees in this race.

There has been a lot written in recent years concerning the inbreeding of our horses and the effect it might be having on the stamina and durability of them. An awful lot of our nice horses have been inbred to the Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector lines and these pedigrees became quite fashionable and bring high prices at the yearling and 2 yr old sales. Breeders have been reluctant to stray from this type breeding because they might feel they are experimenting and not sure what they might get and a big portion of breeders don't breed to race but to sell.

There are a few horses in this race that have shown some talent and their pedigrees contain very little inbreeding so maybe there is going to be a gradual trend toward more crosses and less inbreeding.

Undrafted is one with a lot of different horses in it's pedigree and looks to have some talent although he hasn't met anything of note yet.

Another without a lot of inbreeding is Sr. Quisqueyana. He is very consistent which is always a good sign. It's evident by his low selling price that not many were impressed by his breeding but that may happen quite often when new trends are attempted.

Star Contender has won on the grass and on poly up in Canada but has been in restricted races so we don't know how he will fare against open company on dirt. Casse has one of this years leading contenders in Uncaptured and has been doing very well in the last few years. He seems to be getting a lot of nice young horses recently.

I like the breeding of Purple Egg and he's 3 for 3 so I can't find fault with him until he does something wrong. I don't see him having a problem with distance and he has a couple of bullet works since his last race so I would assume he's on his toes. One question I have is with the jock. Lopez has won with him twice but is riding Itsmyluckyday in here but I have no way of knowing the reason. He may be committed or he may think the horse is better. There's nothing wrong with Rocco Jr because he has been getting much better mounts in the last couple of years.

Itsmyluckyday has a decent pedigree and has been right there in most of his races. I think he will be the chalk based on having raced in a graded race against a couple of nice colts and wasn't all that far behind.

1- Purple Egg
2- Itsmyluckyday
3- Star Contender
4- Undrafted
RECAP

Purple Egg was scratched so I guess Lopez was right in his choice of horses in this. Itsmyluckyday won this easily and actually paid a nice price @ 3/1. I really thought he would be the chalk at about 9/5.

Sr. Quisqueyano had run second against the winner the last time they me and did it again. I don't know as any of these are going anywhere but Itsmyluckyday did draw away at the end and looked good but as I said, this wasn't much of a field especially with Purple Egg out of it.
Backstretch