Newsletter #62 Recap

Newsletter #62  Sat. 3/16/13

OP  R10  The Rebel  G2

Looks like another nice full field with lots of horses in good form. I just hope it's a nice clean race with no trouble.

Oxbow is still my number one pedigree of the year but he gets another bad post. If it hadn't been for ; bad post positions, running hard and wide early and two misjudged premature moves he could have won his last four in a row. I had commented somewhere on line that I thought Lukas should get another jock to ride the Ox, somebody like Mike Smith and lo and behold, Mike gets the mount. If he can get good position just off the pace without getting used up early I think he will take this.

Super Ninety looks to be a real nice one and has a nice pedigree, not great, but good enough. I am always leery of horses that get away on the lead as he did last time, especially in the slop. He did beat Code West in his next to last and that one came back to run big in the Risen Star. I would like to dismiss Ninety Nine but there are too many ifs with him so must leave him in, especially the way Baffert wins at this track.

Delhomme is another I'd like to throw out but am too undecided about him. He is nicely bred, as with most of Pletcher's horses. but the question is, will he rate. He tried to take them all the way last time and tired and the two that beat him came back to run lousy races next time, although there were excuses made for both. I'm putting him in but he is very vulnerable.

Den's Legacy has been very steady and is usually a little short with his closing bids. This race has enough speed in it to cook some of them so he has a chance at a minor prize.

Treasury Bill also has a nice pedigree and with his stable mate full of speed and maybe acting as a rabbit, he will probably try to lay back and come at the end. Don't know if he's good enough but Talamo makes the trip to ride so they must feel pretty good about his chances.

Carve is one that Asmussen claimed out of a winning race and came right back to win his next. Has a nice pedigree and looks like he wants more distance. This might be the claim of the year if he keeps getting better.

I suppose the key to this race is what happens with all that speed on the outside. Delhomme, with his good speed and nice post should be where he wants to be and may have a little advantage . I think Title Contender will be gunning early along with Ninety Nine and Ox so there's a chance that the rest may be kind of squeezed going into the first turn. I really think the most important factor will be, what kind of spot Smith can work out with Ox.

1- Oxbow
2- Delhomme
3- Super Ninety Nine
4- Treasury Bill
Long Shots- Carve and Den's Legacy

RECAP

It was a very strange day at OP. There were 6 sprint races which are one turn races and 5 routes around two turns. In all the sprints the winner was either on the lead or close to the pace. In all the 2 turn races the winner came from the back of the pack. So what was going on around that first turn? Were they running through sand dunes or what?

Once again, Oxbow moved too soon and couldn't hold on at the end. Mike Smith said he didn't want to move that early but was forced to. Why, I don't know, because he had good position laying fourth or fifth but moved before the 1/4 pole. I am going to look at this race as an oddity in the future. I think Oxbow ran what could have been a winning race once again and I also think he is actually getting better with each race and will still be a major factor going forward.

All the front runners in the Rebel and all the other routes on the card ran into a brick wall so I think there was something strange going on. I wouldn't discount some of these speed horses in future races.
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Newsletter #61 Recap

Newsletter  #61  Sat. 3/9/13

I have been pedigree handicapping for a lot of years and although it's not a precise method of handicapping, I rely on pedigrees to tell me which horses should be able to get the distance of the TC races. In most years, when handicapping one of the prep races, there were only a couple of horses in each race that seemed to have a pedigree with the potential to get the longer distances. This year however, I have never seen so many horses with really good pedigrees.

Even if all the horses on the TC trail had exactly the same pedigrees, some would be better than others, they can't all be equal. A lot depends on the ability of the trainer and other factors that may decide which ones run their best on any particular day. So naturally, I will be wrong a lot more than I'm right, as it is with all handicapping. I just try to be right enough times on some horses that may be over looked or be able to eliminate some short odds horses that can't get the distance.

TAM  R10  The Tampa Bay Derby  G2

This is a race where I can't really eliminate any one of them at this distance but will try to stay with those I think can get the Derby distance which is tough because they all have such nice breeding.

Verrazano will no doubt be the favorite because he seems to be freakishly fast. Many times a horse will blow them away on the front end and record a very high speed figure but I've never been able to understand how this happens because many times they are never able to do it again unless they happen to get a set of circumstances exactly the same. His pedigree, because of the placement of some particular mares, could go either way. He may have distance limitations or may not but at this distance he should have no problems if he's the real deal. Hard to go against him at this time.

Falling Sky has a super nice inbred pedigree and I don't think this distance is a factor but the post position is. I have the feeling this horse will rate off the pace a little and if he can get decent position he has a good chance. Although it looks like he was getting tired at the end of his last, Dynamic Sky never did get past him, not even on the gallop out. If he tries for the lead and is forced wide on the turn he could be in trouble.

Dynamic Sky has some nice races and with Joel in the saddle should move up. Joel has been riding all over the country and does great wherever he rides and is on a roll. If someone takes the starch out of the top 2 he stands a good chance. Also looks to be sitting on ready.

Park City is another Pletcher well bred colt who is 2 for 2 and could make some noise in here. Prado looks like he's getting back to his form of yesteryear and could bring this one from out of the clouds.

I like the pedigree of Purple Egg and his unbeaten record is nothing to sneeze at. The reason I don't have him contending is that he's had some kind of ailment and scratched out of a couple races. He also hasn't worked in a couple of weeks but who knows, he may be ready.

Java's War has shown some good signs on the turf and the poly but his one race on dirt wasn't so hot although he had a bad start in that race. That KJC race was on the slow side but I recall another horse that came out of that race who also had trouble trying to close on that slow pace and came back with a good race.

If the chalk doesn't win this we could see some nice numbers light up the tote. There are others in here that deserve mention, in fact, I don't think winning this is beyond the scope of any of them. Just have to make a stand somewhere.

1- Verrazano
2- Falling Sky
3- Dynamic Sky
4- Park City
Long Shot- Java's War

SA  R7  The San Felipe  G2

The west coast gang doesn't look as strong this year as in prior years. As usual, Baffert has a few that look good but are as yet unproven against stakes company. On paper this looks to be a 2 horse race but one never knows with these youngsters. Only 8 entered so this doesn't look to be a defining race but we will be on the lookout for a better field in the SA Derby.

Goldencents has a pedigree that could carry him a long way this year. His only defeat was a second against the top 2 year old of last year, Shanghai Bobby. He has a lot of speed but also showed he could rate a little in his last when he tracked a speed ball and took over to draw away. He could take the lead if he gets it easy enough or he might track Flashback. Either way, he doesn't figure to be very far off the pace.

Flashback is one of Bafferts better bred 3 yr olds this year and has had no trouble in his only two races. He led all the way in his last to win by a big margin but he also set a pretty soft pace so we will find out today how he stands up under pressure which he's sure to get from Goldencents.

Hollendorfer has another decent one this year in Hear the Ghost but his contenders are usually just a cut below the best. This one has kind of an unusual pedigree with 2 mares being of the old Man O' War line and I almost never see something like that. His pedigree tells me he should be able to run all day so we will see what the stretch out does to help him.

Kochees is another with nice papers and tried chasing the highly regarded Super Ninety Nine in his last. He could show some improvement here and get a piece of the action.

Omega Star is a nicely bred CA horse and will get a big test today. I don't think he can handle the likes of the top two but may hang in for a minor award.

1- Goldencents
2- Flashback
3- Hear the Ghost
4- Kochees
Long Shot- Omega Star

RECAP

Verrazano looked good winning this but on the other hand it seemed to me to be a pretty slow pace. In addition, aside from Falling Sky, it looked to be a pretty weak field. Verrazano is a very nice colt but I still think his pedigree could go either way as far as distance is concerned. It takes a different kind of horse to get the Derby distance.

This race was also a little more proof that the KJC race was very odd with that slow time recorded. Java's War is another horse that came out of that race and ran big so I'm wondering how good Uncaptured will do in his next couple of races. I do think that this was a weak field and want to see what Verrazano does against some of the better colts.

Out in CA the San Felipe turned into a speed duel and I kind of think this was due to the long lay off by Goldencents who was just too fresh. I saw a lot of talk about how the jocks screwed up on Flashback and Goldencents but it looked to me like they couldn't hold those two horses back. They set a pretty wicked pace and set it up for a closer but the pedigree of Hear the Ghost, the winner, told me he should run all day and I think he is one of those types that will relish the 1 1/4 of the Derby.

It will probably be the last races of the preps, when the leading contenders finally tangle, before we really get an idea of who can do what. I think the Rebel next week will have a more evenly matched group and something good will show up there.
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Newsletter #60 Recap

Newsletter  #60  Sat. 3/2/13

AQU  R10  The Gotham G3

Wow, another full field. If nothing else, the new point system has brought us some full fields of competitive horses. There are some in here that are bred for the classics and a few that I'm undecided about.

We've got four that are coming out of the Withers that was won by Revolutionary, who I like because of his pedigree, but I don't think there was much in there for him to beat. Some of them had been beaten by Vyjack who looks like a main contender in this.

I'm sure Overanalyze will be the favorite off his last with that big Beyer number. I am suspicious of that figure because on the same day, Uncaptured who beat him in the Iroquois, came back to win in a very slow race at CD. I just don't see this horse running as fast as the figure says he did in his last. Also, he nosed out Normandy Invasion who was no ball of fire as the chalk in the Risen Star. I'm undecided about his pedigree because it's not the kind that I favor. He's been on the shelf for three months or more and may be a little short because his normal schedule is to race once a month.

Vyjack has some really nice breeding and hasn't taken a bad step yet in racking up 3 in a row. Doesn't it seem strange for the jock that has steered him to all his victories to be taken off? The owner thinks that Rosario will handle the horse better than Velasquez. The owner of Vyjack is a guy who hit a P6 for 3 mil and decided to get himself a good horse. He paid 100 Gs for him at the sale because he liked his pedigree and his workout. He says the reason for the change in jocks is that Vyjack is an aggressive horse who they decided to geld because of his head strong tendencies. He feels that the horse was fighting Velasquez and that Joel would be a better fit.

Mc Laughlin has 3 in this and 2 of them are owned by Darley. I think one of them will be scratched, probably Now and Then. He and the other half of the entry, Transparent have very nice pedigrees and have been racing without lasix. Darley may have been one of the owners that decided to do without lasix and I also think they may have their eye on the UAE Derby. One must always give serious consideration to horses from this stable and a very live jock.

Mc Laughlin also has Elnaawi who is coming off a nice maiden win and gets lasix for the first time. I'm not too fond of his bloodlines but this isn't the derby. Horses who have won over the track have a little edge and usually run well.

Sky Captain scratched out of the Fountain of Youth last week because of a bad post and probably to dodge Violence. He was beaten last time by Cerro who didn't fare too well in the FOY but his chances were killed in that one when he tried to chase that fast pace which isn't his style. Casse has a few nice ones in Uncaptured, Northern Lion and Dynamic Sky in addition to this one. Sky Captain has a very nice pedigree and looks to be sitting on a big race but the question is, how will he take to this track?

Of the 4 colts coming out of the Withers any one of them could get a piece of this race but I happen to really like the pedigree of the maiden, Champion Boy. I don't think it's ever a good thing to throw maidens in the deep end of the pool by jumping them up against graded winners but he wasn't badly beaten and looks like he will improve off his last so I'll give him a shot.

I've got to leave somebody out but it looks like anything is possible in this race. Overanalyze has a class edge because of his running good in graded races but I think he will be odds on and I'm going to try to beat him.

1- Sky Captain
2- Vyjack
3- Overanalyze
4- Elnaawi
Long Shot- Champion Boy

Recap

This was a rough run race. At the start the second place finisher, West Hills Giant, came over and crowded the whole field and especially Elnaawi who had a terrible trip and I think he would have been an easy second with a clean trip.

Another with a bad trip was Champion Boy, the maiden. He was shut off at the top of the stretch when he looked to be making a move, got going again and was blocked again and couldn't regain his momentum. He has a pedigree with a lot of potential and I think he will be heard from down the road somewhere. I also think he's been badly handled.

If you recall, I had mentioned, in another post, that many speed horses develop a terrific closing kick when reserved off the pace and allowed to retain all that energy they had been using early. Vyjack is a perfect example of that. Normally up on the pace he was allowed to laze near the back and came on like a train in the stretch. There are a few others on the trail that might do the same if they take to being rated.

I had also said that I thought the Derby would be won by one of the out crossed horses on the Derby trail. Vyjack is a very nice example of an out crossed horse, with the Princequillo/Double Jay lines introduced through the maternal G Dam and then brought back into the Nearco line to produce what I like to call Hybrid Vigor. There are a few of these types of pedigrees out there like, Demonic, Flashback, Oxbow, Revolutionary and Vyjack. These are all at the top of my Derby list, and unless I've missed one somewhere, one of these will win the big show in my opinion.
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