Newsletter # 8 2/24/12.....Recap

Newsletter # 8 - 2/24/12

Risen Star Stakes  FG  R11  2/25/12

It looks like we have a stick out in this race. Normally I try to beat this kind but he looks like a cut above these. I've only got a couple in here with derby type pedigrees and the one to beat is El Padrino. I'm not too fond of his pedigree but it looks as good as anything in this race.

Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but his dosage figures are quite high. In fact, I can't recall a Derby winner with dosage numbers that high. Can't discount him though because this race is a long way from the Derby distance.

Z Dager has a nice old time pedigree with a lot of stamina in it and I was surprised that he was so close to the pace last time. He got blocked pretty good in the stretch and had Sellers made a move to the rail when he had the chance he would have won with no problem. Will be dangerous with a good trip.

Shared Property has an ok pedigree but once again he draws outside and being a deep closer he's going to have to find a way to work a trip.

Optimizer has had a lot of chances but can't seem to get the job done. Another one that needs a perfect trip.

Afford doesn't have much in the way of breeding but I feel like he's going to get a piece of the action here.

1 - #7 El Padrino

2 -  #3 Afford

3 - #5 Z Dager

4 - #1  Mr. Bowling

El Padrino won as expected but he didn't do it easily. He may move forward off that race but I want to see more when facing some quality front runners. Not to say that Valeski is a bad horse but I don't think he's derby material. El Padrino may be derby material but not off this race in my opinion. All in all, a decent effort against a weak field.


GP  R11  2/26/12  Fountain Of Youth

 Having made speed figures of my own there are a few things I found out. One is, I never use a figure taken on an off track. Another is that there is not and never will be anything exact in a horse race except the weight a horse carries. Speed figures are a tool for measuring condition but they can't tell you how fast the horse will run today. Also, I'm a firm believer that horses are distance oriented and speed figures are not transferable from one distance to another. As you can see, I'm not a fan of Beyers, especially when he can go back and adjust his figures after the fact. I think if you want to use speed figures you can't do any better than those found in chapter 10 of Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. It will put you in the ball park and that's all you can ask of speed figures. The rest is dependent on condition and what happens during the race.

Having said that I am going out on a limb and not picking Algorithms to win. One thing is that his pedigree doesn't meet my Derby profile. That's not to say he won't win again along the way but, unlike the majority of handicappers, I do not consider him as a Derby winning prospect. His last race with the big Beyer was in the slop and he only had to beat Hansen who ran himself into the ground. The second half of that race was kind of slow and I don't think Algorithms caught Hansen, Hansen just backed up. As witness, My Adonis closed 15 lengths in the last half.

Naturally, Union Rags has got to be the horse to beat off his record. He was only beaten once and that was by Hansen in the BC and I think that was the race of Hansen's life and I don't really expect him to repeat that performance unless he's in against an inferior field and can steal it. Rags also has the profile of a Derby horse. How close is he to top form is something only he can tell us and right now he's not talking.

Discreet Dancer has a pedigree that can make a derby horse but his type of pedigree has a low percentage considering how many are bred along those lines. He wired the field in both starts and although the pace was not fast in his last, he finished very fast on his own. It doesn't look like anyone can run with him early and if he's not pressured will be very hard to catch.

Casual Trick is a nicely bred horse and does have some speed. He stumbled at the start last time and was rushed up and then it looked like JR eased him out of it. A clean break could see him sitting in a nice spot just off the pace. He couldn't get by Reveron in his next to last so maybe he lacks a closing punch.

1- #5  Discreet Dancer

2-  #7  Union Rags

3-  #2  Algorithms

4-  #1  Neck' N Neck

Over at GP I thought Discreet Dancer would show some high speed but didn't. He might have but JR backed him way down and put everyone else in position to make a charge.

Of course, there was nobody going to beat Rags as he simply demolished them. I know it was a weak field but the way he did it sure makes it look like he's the one to beat from here on in. One thing I did overlook was that News Pending who ran second at long odds ran a good second against Exothermic who is one of my undefeated derby contenders.

Gotham up next...
Backstretch

Newsletter # 7 Recap

I didn't do very well this week. In the El Camino I really thought Nakatani would try and rate Handsome Mike but he went head and head with a 90/1 shot in a fast pace duel and gave it up late. He did the same in the Cash Call with Drill and hung in til very late stretch. He has a very nice pedigree for a distance and I still think he has a future if they can rate him a little.


I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.


The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.


This was my newsletter:



Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12


El Camino Real  GG  Race 8


This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted. 


In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.


The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.


I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.


I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.


Here's how I see it;


1- #7  Handsome Mike


2- #10  Lady Of Fifty


3- #6  Lucky Chappy


4- #4  Russian Greek 




San Vicente


SA  R7  2/19/12


I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.


Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.


Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.


1- Creative Cause


2- Let's Get Crackin


3- American Act

Newsletter #5 Sat. 2/4/12

For those that thought $2.50 per week was too much for the newsletter, here's what you missed so far.

In the Smarty Jones I gave 4 horses and 3 of them ran 1-2-3

In the Holy Bull I gave 4 and 3 of them ran 1-2-3

In the LeComte I gave 4 and one of them won.

Today;

In the Withers I gave 4 and one scratched and I had the winner w/a 44/1 shot second.

In the Sam Davis I gave 4 + 2 long shots and 1 of the LS won and beat my top 2.

In the R. Lewis I gave 4 and 2 of them ran 1-2 with a 44/1 shot on top beating my first choice for an $800. ex.

I got sidetracked a little in the Sam Davis because instead of sticking with my pedigrees all the way I got a little influenced by the trainers and put 2 in that I shouldn't have. All in all, a helluva nice day!

Newsletter #5  Sat.  2/4/12

The Withers

AQU  Race 9  2/4/12

This race is sort of a rerun of the Count Fleet that Alpha took. In that race I had Alpha and Speightscity as my pedigree horses and they are still my best bred in this race. 

If you recall I said before the Count Fleet that Alpha's race in the BC was hard to understand. He had run second to the leading contender Union Rags in his previous race and yet he got no betting action at all in the BC which led me to believe that something was wrong and someone knew it. Alpha redeemed himself in the Count Fleet and looks to be the one to beat in here.

Speightscity has a beautiful pedigree but it's my belief that his training has been faulty. It looks to me that his form is ass- backwards in that, when he looks like he should run good he doesn't and vise-versa. I'm going to give him another chance for the money and maybe he will wake up. Perhaps he will never run to his pedigree but there is still time for him to turn it around.

Swag Daddy has an interesting pedigree. He's got a nice record running in NY state bred races but moves up here. What's interesting about him is his dam sire line is sort of almost extinct as far as there being any sires to carry on the line. It's unusual nowadays to see a pedigree with Damascus so close up. This is the line from the great Teddy and as I said, Teddy's sire line has all but disappeared except for a few in South America. I think this one may be able to run all day and I'll be interested to see if he has the talent to compete with the best.

Hakama has a nice pedigree being inbred to Norther Dancer on the sire's side and also having Damascus on the tail. He has a few things going for him; he has a lot of speed and his breeding says he should be able to carry it a long way, has a win over the track and I recall a good one recently taking this route.

This race may come down to whether anyone can catch Hakama and it might be Alpha.

1- Alpha

2- Hakama

3- Swag Daddy

4- Speightscity

The Robert B. Lewis

Santa Anita  Sat. 2/4/12

This race could be a rerun of the Cash Call Fut. We have 4 of the first 5 finishers back in this race. It seems to me that the CC race must have had a very fast pace regardless of what the numbers might say. There were 2 horses, Drill and Handsome Mike, dueling for the lead all the way into the stretch. What makes me think they were going pretty fast is that Majestic City, who is very fast, couldn't keep pace with those two.

The first 5 finishers all came from off the pace. Laison was only a few lengths back and got the jump on the others. So, I suppose the question is, what kind of pace will we see this time. There are 3 horses in here with a lot of speed so we may get a duel but I have an idea that only one is going to really shoot for the lead. We may also see a closer or two try to get closer to the pace.

There are several in this one with nice pedigrees and the ones I like are, Empire Way, Liaison, Sky Kingdom and I'll Have Another. Since this race looks like any one of them could win I'm just playing by pedigree. Just looks to be a very contentious race and not a place to place a big bet. Best to fool around with some exotic boxes.

1- Empire Way

2- Sky Kingdom

3- Liaison

4- I'll Have Another

The Sam Davis

Tampa Bay  Sat. 2/4/12

This looks to be the most interesting race this week. There are a lot of possibilities in this race and maybe a chance for a big exotic. There are some nicely bred horses here but I think the best one at this time is Reveron although I don't really think he will get the Derby distance. As I've often said, there are a lot of pedigrees that may be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but encounter trouble trying to get that extra 1/8 and that's what I think will happen with Reveron.

Prospective is one that looks to be able to handle the classics and has had a nice tune up by winning the Pasco. He may have a little trouble here with the outside post. He does have a little speed but the jock is going to have to work a trip to get him into contention. State Of Play has a nice pedigree but I would like to see some dirt form before I make a decision on him. He does have some speed and was hampered by the extreme outside post in the BC but if he takes to dirt he might be a threat.

The real speed in here is Pletcher's colt Ecabroni and we know that he has his charges ready at this time of year. I don't like his breeding for the classics but this is not a classic and speed is always dangerous. I expect to see him get a lot of action but I want some value before I back one stretching out against some good ones.

Burning Time is an interesting colt with the Damascus dam sire line. He should love a distance and be very durable but this race may be a tad short for him. Has a big late, late move so could fill the bottom of the exotics.

Battle Hardened is another that is well bred and has already ran a good one at 1 1/8. Neck'n Neck ran second last time to highly regarded Discreet Dancer so should be a contender off his form. I'm still undecided about his pedigree but again, this race is not a classic. This race is usually won by something running up near the front but there may be a battle for the lead so we can't discount a closer winning this one.

1- Reveron

2- Prospective

3- Neck'n Neck

4- Ecabroni

Long shots - Battle Hardened and Burning time