Definition of INTENT
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You may wonder what this has to do with horse racing; everything! You may handicap a race and decide that horse A is better than Horse B but if horse A's trainer does not intend to try today it doesn't matter how good the horse might be.
In this post I am going to try to explain how I go about deciding to bet or not to bet. Many years ago I asked an old timer, who was an expert handicapper if he could have one question answered, regarding a race in question, what would it be? Without hesitation, he said, "Who's going to run good today?. I never forgot that and although I spent a lot of years with speed and pace handicapping, I found that well meant horses were the best path to winning long term. My signature statement is, "People Run Horse Racing, Horses Just Run!".
When asking what a trainers intentions are today a lot depends on the type of race being considered. If it's a stakes race with a big purse one must assume the trainer wants to win for several reasons. First of all, the owners of high class horses are normally only interested in winning a big race. They may or may not place a bet but I don't think many do for the simple reason that they don't need the money. They like the prestige that comes with winning big races and owning a champion. The more big races a trainer wins the more likely he is to get the better future prospects along with higher fees. So, if we assume that virtually all the entries in high class races want to win, the logical move is to then try to decide who is going to win. In most cases of this sort we are basically reduced to a guessing game unless of course you are willing to back favorites most of the time. The high class horses are, for the most part, trained into condition, which is a very tricky process. I reserve these type races for my fun bets. Oddly enough, I do quite well with these bets, especially with the 3 yr olds on the Triple Crown Trail. The reason I do well is I handicap by pedigree and many times this points to horses that have a lot of potential that hasn't been realized as yet.
Most of us that are regular bettors trying to turn a profit are betting on claiming races which are the bread and butter of racing. There are all types of claiming horses which include those that are just a few notches below the very best and those that make up the lower rungs of the ladder. The latter are my bread and butter! I don't play allowance races, maiden special weights 2 yr olds, or turf races. My reasoning is that in allowance races there may be some top of the line horses in it that are tuning up for something bigger and better. It is done but is risky business for a trainer to try to engineer a betting coup when there may be horses of much better caliber in the race. The same reasoning applies to the maiden special weights. The 2 yr old races usually have a bunch of first time starters and a lot of others that can improve tremendously from race to race so they are out, too many unknowable factors. I don't play turf races because too many trainers use the turf to condition dirt horses. I have also seen hundreds of sharp, cheap claimers coming off the dirt that have never or seldom run on the grass jump up and beat much higher class horses on the grass. Trying to guess who is out to win and who is in there for conditioning purposes is a losing game. I also eliminate starter allowances and handicap races because this is another type race where there may be a very classy horse that just happens to meet the conditions or, because they can't be claimed, horses that are only in the race for the exercise. I therefore restrict my play to straight claiming races on the dirt and there are more than enough of those to keep anyone in action.
Trainers attempting to set up a betting coup will use many different moves to get the horse in winning condition while at the same time hiding the horse's form so as to deceive bettors into thinking the horse is a dud. There can be a series or combinations of class, distance, surface, running style and jockey switches to accomplish this. Betting stables and trainers will do all they can to get higher odds on their horse when it is sent to win. By these different patterns, if one is attuned to them, is how the trainers INTENT can be deciphered. Some trainers, as in all other professions, are much better than others, and in fact, some are downright lousy at what they do. Even in the claiming ranks there are what's known today as "Super Trainers". These are trainers that, although dealing with claiming horses, have a very high win percentage. There are a couple of these at most tracks and I try to avoid races where they have an entry unless my choice is very good odds, but even then I am very wary. These trainers normally have a lot of horses from some well heeled owners and their primary interest is also in winning as many races as possible. This type trainer earns his money from per Diem fees and his percentage of winning purses and is reluctant to place a bet with his own money.
My basic strategy is to scan, with my eyes, as I don't use computer programs, the claiming races at most tracks running and try to spot horses that I think are well intended. It only takes me about 30 seconds or less to scan a race because I have embedded in my mind different patterns of running lines, class moves, etc. Once I spot what I think is a well intended horse I then proceed to evaluate other factors such as his placement as regards class, distance, jockey and so on. I may then go the the result charts and the replay of the horse's last few races. I am trying now to decide if the trainer's intent was to purposely make the horse look bad or if the horse has been trying and just doesn't have what it takes to win. Sometimes I'm right and often times wrong in my assessment but when right the odds usually make up for the wrongs. Remember, we have got to beat the prices regardless of the win percentage
I would actually have to write a book to describe, step by step, the entire process of how to determine the trainers intent and of course, once this was made public, it would soon become worthless. I can however give you a few hints to describe when a trainers intent is usually not to win but to condition the horse. For example; a horse that's a proven router, unless it has displayed speed in a sprint or has won at a shorter distance, is entered in a sprint off a layoff you can deduce it's prepping for a longer race. Another is a horse that returns from a layoff with a bang-up race and is jumped in class in it's next race. Most horses that run a hard race off a layoff need a couple of races to recuperate. Many trainers will drop this type in class in it's next start with the best of intentions but I've found these to be very bad bets on two counts. One is that the horse will usually go off at short odds and the other is the trainer is hoping, even though he knows the horse will probably bounce, that the drop in class will compensate for the expected regression in the horse's form. The trainer that jumps this type in class knows the race took a lot out of the horse and will run it in higher class til it regains it's form.
Another point when considering the intent of the trainer is that I find that most trainers are either impatient or tend to overestimate the condition of the horse. They will shoot with the horse too soon mostly because they have a preconceived plan. The plan may be to bring a horse off a layoff and give it one race and drop it in it's next race with intent to win. You can see many of this type every day but too many times the trainer over estimates the horse's condition and it comes up short, where as, had he given the horse one more easy race, the horse would probably have won.
When we decide the trainers intent is to win we can use another factor to determine if we are correct in our assessment and that is the odds board. The biggest majority of well intended horses will get action at the windows. In this case one must be careful to note whether the horse deserves to be bet or not. If the horse shows good form and class ability, comes from a top stable with a live jock up, we would expect it to get bet. It's the ones that have some hidden form and what looks like other detrimental facts that garner action that are the live stable horses. If this applies to the horse we are considering it then becomes another positive factor as to the trainers intentions. There are exceptions to this however. I have a couple of friends that have very sophisticated programs to analyze the betting action on races. They have informed me that in this day and age of exotic betting there are lots of cases where the connections do NOT bet the horse to win but bet it in the exotics. They try to hide the money so as not to give their plans away. You have probably asked your self many times how an exacta or double could pay so little when a long shot wins the race. Hidden money is the reason! The reason I mention this is that it is sometimes easy to pass up a big long shot because it seems like no money shows up on it.
In conclusion, the intent is of utmost importance in handicapping. It can point one to winners and also help to eliminate losers. It takes a lot of practice and experience but it can be learned if one takes an out-of-the-box approach. Look for moves they don't seem to make sense and try to figure why it's being made. There are many clues to a trainers intent but if you fail to recognize what is going on your going to back a lot of horses that are not even giving a try.
This is not an inducement to subscribe to my selection service but I would like to mention that many of my clients have told me that it is worth the price just to get my selections to see how to apply the handicapping factors I endorse. The only other way I could teach my methods would be in a one on one class room setting. Writing a book is out for obvious reasons.
I will be blogging some more important stuff in the near future so stay tuned.
Backstretch
In this post I am going to try to explain how I go about deciding to bet or not to bet. Many years ago I asked an old timer, who was an expert handicapper if he could have one question answered, regarding a race in question, what would it be? Without hesitation, he said, "Who's going to run good today?. I never forgot that and although I spent a lot of years with speed and pace handicapping, I found that well meant horses were the best path to winning long term. My signature statement is, "People Run Horse Racing, Horses Just Run!".
When asking what a trainers intentions are today a lot depends on the type of race being considered. If it's a stakes race with a big purse one must assume the trainer wants to win for several reasons. First of all, the owners of high class horses are normally only interested in winning a big race. They may or may not place a bet but I don't think many do for the simple reason that they don't need the money. They like the prestige that comes with winning big races and owning a champion. The more big races a trainer wins the more likely he is to get the better future prospects along with higher fees. So, if we assume that virtually all the entries in high class races want to win, the logical move is to then try to decide who is going to win. In most cases of this sort we are basically reduced to a guessing game unless of course you are willing to back favorites most of the time. The high class horses are, for the most part, trained into condition, which is a very tricky process. I reserve these type races for my fun bets. Oddly enough, I do quite well with these bets, especially with the 3 yr olds on the Triple Crown Trail. The reason I do well is I handicap by pedigree and many times this points to horses that have a lot of potential that hasn't been realized as yet.
Most of us that are regular bettors trying to turn a profit are betting on claiming races which are the bread and butter of racing. There are all types of claiming horses which include those that are just a few notches below the very best and those that make up the lower rungs of the ladder. The latter are my bread and butter! I don't play allowance races, maiden special weights 2 yr olds, or turf races. My reasoning is that in allowance races there may be some top of the line horses in it that are tuning up for something bigger and better. It is done but is risky business for a trainer to try to engineer a betting coup when there may be horses of much better caliber in the race. The same reasoning applies to the maiden special weights. The 2 yr old races usually have a bunch of first time starters and a lot of others that can improve tremendously from race to race so they are out, too many unknowable factors. I don't play turf races because too many trainers use the turf to condition dirt horses. I have also seen hundreds of sharp, cheap claimers coming off the dirt that have never or seldom run on the grass jump up and beat much higher class horses on the grass. Trying to guess who is out to win and who is in there for conditioning purposes is a losing game. I also eliminate starter allowances and handicap races because this is another type race where there may be a very classy horse that just happens to meet the conditions or, because they can't be claimed, horses that are only in the race for the exercise. I therefore restrict my play to straight claiming races on the dirt and there are more than enough of those to keep anyone in action.
Trainers attempting to set up a betting coup will use many different moves to get the horse in winning condition while at the same time hiding the horse's form so as to deceive bettors into thinking the horse is a dud. There can be a series or combinations of class, distance, surface, running style and jockey switches to accomplish this. Betting stables and trainers will do all they can to get higher odds on their horse when it is sent to win. By these different patterns, if one is attuned to them, is how the trainers INTENT can be deciphered. Some trainers, as in all other professions, are much better than others, and in fact, some are downright lousy at what they do. Even in the claiming ranks there are what's known today as "Super Trainers". These are trainers that, although dealing with claiming horses, have a very high win percentage. There are a couple of these at most tracks and I try to avoid races where they have an entry unless my choice is very good odds, but even then I am very wary. These trainers normally have a lot of horses from some well heeled owners and their primary interest is also in winning as many races as possible. This type trainer earns his money from per Diem fees and his percentage of winning purses and is reluctant to place a bet with his own money.
My basic strategy is to scan, with my eyes, as I don't use computer programs, the claiming races at most tracks running and try to spot horses that I think are well intended. It only takes me about 30 seconds or less to scan a race because I have embedded in my mind different patterns of running lines, class moves, etc. Once I spot what I think is a well intended horse I then proceed to evaluate other factors such as his placement as regards class, distance, jockey and so on. I may then go the the result charts and the replay of the horse's last few races. I am trying now to decide if the trainer's intent was to purposely make the horse look bad or if the horse has been trying and just doesn't have what it takes to win. Sometimes I'm right and often times wrong in my assessment but when right the odds usually make up for the wrongs. Remember, we have got to beat the prices regardless of the win percentage
I would actually have to write a book to describe, step by step, the entire process of how to determine the trainers intent and of course, once this was made public, it would soon become worthless. I can however give you a few hints to describe when a trainers intent is usually not to win but to condition the horse. For example; a horse that's a proven router, unless it has displayed speed in a sprint or has won at a shorter distance, is entered in a sprint off a layoff you can deduce it's prepping for a longer race. Another is a horse that returns from a layoff with a bang-up race and is jumped in class in it's next race. Most horses that run a hard race off a layoff need a couple of races to recuperate. Many trainers will drop this type in class in it's next start with the best of intentions but I've found these to be very bad bets on two counts. One is that the horse will usually go off at short odds and the other is the trainer is hoping, even though he knows the horse will probably bounce, that the drop in class will compensate for the expected regression in the horse's form. The trainer that jumps this type in class knows the race took a lot out of the horse and will run it in higher class til it regains it's form.
Another point when considering the intent of the trainer is that I find that most trainers are either impatient or tend to overestimate the condition of the horse. They will shoot with the horse too soon mostly because they have a preconceived plan. The plan may be to bring a horse off a layoff and give it one race and drop it in it's next race with intent to win. You can see many of this type every day but too many times the trainer over estimates the horse's condition and it comes up short, where as, had he given the horse one more easy race, the horse would probably have won.
When we decide the trainers intent is to win we can use another factor to determine if we are correct in our assessment and that is the odds board. The biggest majority of well intended horses will get action at the windows. In this case one must be careful to note whether the horse deserves to be bet or not. If the horse shows good form and class ability, comes from a top stable with a live jock up, we would expect it to get bet. It's the ones that have some hidden form and what looks like other detrimental facts that garner action that are the live stable horses. If this applies to the horse we are considering it then becomes another positive factor as to the trainers intentions. There are exceptions to this however. I have a couple of friends that have very sophisticated programs to analyze the betting action on races. They have informed me that in this day and age of exotic betting there are lots of cases where the connections do NOT bet the horse to win but bet it in the exotics. They try to hide the money so as not to give their plans away. You have probably asked your self many times how an exacta or double could pay so little when a long shot wins the race. Hidden money is the reason! The reason I mention this is that it is sometimes easy to pass up a big long shot because it seems like no money shows up on it.
In conclusion, the intent is of utmost importance in handicapping. It can point one to winners and also help to eliminate losers. It takes a lot of practice and experience but it can be learned if one takes an out-of-the-box approach. Look for moves they don't seem to make sense and try to figure why it's being made. There are many clues to a trainers intent but if you fail to recognize what is going on your going to back a lot of horses that are not even giving a try.
This is not an inducement to subscribe to my selection service but I would like to mention that many of my clients have told me that it is worth the price just to get my selections to see how to apply the handicapping factors I endorse. The only other way I could teach my methods would be in a one on one class room setting. Writing a book is out for obvious reasons.
I will be blogging some more important stuff in the near future so stay tuned.
Backstretch
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