Saturday, April 16, 2016

ARK Derby 2016


ARK Derby  2016

Recently I had written that, during the course of my many years of handicapping, I had noticed that when horses that move up in class off of races where they had raced on or very near the pace, tended to come from off the pace. Most handicappers know that horses dropping in class from a race or races where they had lots of early speed were very dangerous no matter where they had finished in these races. This is because the pace is usually slower in the cheaper races. The reverse is true when moving up in class. It is for this reason I like horses that got closer to the pace when moved up, especially those coming off a maiden win.

There are always exceptions to the rule as in horses like Zenyatta who could win from off the pace regardless of company but this type horse is very rare. In this race Cupid is a prime example. He laid a little off the pace in his maiden races but when jumped into a graded race set a fast pace and pulled away at the end. Perhaps some of this was due to his being a May foal and just starting to mature and more of it may be that he is just plain classy. He has a nice pedigree and looks much the best in this field although there may be some question as to whether or not he can get the Derby distance and beyond.

Over half this field has classic type breeding and I kind of like Dazzling Gem's last where he moved to graded company and pressed the pace and hung in for third at today's distance although the time was on the slow side.

Whitmore looked to be a winner in his last two but just couldn't close the deal at the end. He did improve his speed in his last but Cupid proved to be too much for him. Is he a hanger?

Gray Sky has one of the better pedigrees in this but I have a question in my mind concerning the jocks. Geroux is one of the best but I'm a bit curious about his ride on this colt in the Rebel. Whitmore had passed him nearing the 3/4 mark and Gray Sky gave a burst and repassed Whitmore only to flatten out. Was this an over confident or misjudged ride on the part of Geroux? Why the jockey change to a lesser boy? I still have to consider this one because of his pedigree and the manner in which he ran last time and, his odds of course.

Gettysburg is nicely bred and has a couple of other things going for him, like Pletcher and JR, plus having had two races at today's distance. He does have enough speed to get position and maybe chase Cupid all the way.

I would love to see Suddenbreakingnews win this just because I like his pedigree so much. I don't care much for his form cycle because he looks to have regressed in his last although slop could help if speed doesn't hold up.

1- #10  Cupid
2- #11  Gray Sky...may be a sloppy track which would help..
3- #12 Gettysburg
4- #8  Whitmore
Long Shot  #7  Dazzling Gem

Backstretch