Friday, May 19, 2017

Preakness 2017





Preakness 2017

I've been away from blogging for a year because of health issues. It's certainly no fun getting old. I'm going to try to get back to it for awhile anyway.

I am not going to go through every horse's pedigree, just the ones I like best.

Always Dreaming has a classic pedigree that tells me he can handle any distance and his performance so far has been the best so I have to place him on top of these.

Conquest Mo Money is another with a pedigree that says he likes a distance of ground. He had won 3 in a row and got caught in a pace duel in his last two, especially his last, the Ark Derby where I think he was best. He set a pressured pace and shook off 2 horses before losing near the wire. My problem with him is his jockey. I think the guy is in over his head and I am surprised that they didn't try to get a top boy for this horse. They probably could have gotten Mike Smith. I did read that the trainer says they may not go for the lead this time which I think would be a smart move. From his post he can probably get position and sit second or third. No sense in trying to challenge Dreamer early.

I'm going to go out on a limb here with Classic Empire and basically throw him out. He may get a small piece but I think, because of his pedigree and the way he has run, that 9f is his limit. In his best race in the BC, even though he hung on to win, he was fast running out of gas and that was only at 8.5f. Tired in the Holy Bull and just about won the AK derby where he was off the pace and CMM had to battle 2 horses on the lead and was probably best in that one. I know he had a lot of trouble in KY but after a mile he started to lose ground on the leader even though he passed a few dead ones.

I think Gunnevera may rebound somewhat in this and may pick up a piece, especially with Money Mike up. Has a decent pedigree and I think we can throw out his last 2 and go back to his FOY race where he really put them away and I like his type of form cycle.

Going out on another limb with a real long shot, Term of Art. He may be a little slow coming to hand but it's very easy to glance at his record and toss him. In the San Felipe he had a bad start but still ran 3rd against Mastery who, after that race, everybody was saying that was the best race by a 3yr old all year and were jumping on him as the horse to beat in the derby. In the SA derby, which was a weird race that produced 2 good efforts by Irap and Battle of Midway, he was back in no-man's- land but even though very wide coming for home managed to pass 5 horses in deep stretch. Needs to be closer early and I think Ortiz will put him in the race. Has had 4 stiff works since last and gets blinkers. I'm giving him a money shot at probably 30/1.

1- #4 Always Dreaming  4/5...can't see them beating him.
2-  #10  Conquest Mo Money  15/1..can run off the pace or up front..if the jock doesn't screw up he should be right there..very game horse.
3-  #6  Gunnevera  15/1..needs a good trip
4-  #7  Term of Art  30/1..may still need more distance..
5-  #5  Classic Empire  3/1..may be a little closer but I think he's over rated.
Possibles..#9 Lookin At Lee, #1 Multiplier