Delta Jackpot
Sat. 11/22/14 R7 Delta Downs
I haven't bothered keeping up with the 2 yr old races this year because I am only interested in the Triple Crown and the races leading up to it.
Personally, I don't think these early races for 2 yr old horses have too much bearing on the TC races, mainly because of the distances that are run. It doesn't take much of a pedigree to get sprints or distances of just over a mile. It does take classical breeding to get a mile and a quarter or more however. Even though 1 1/16 miles can be handled by many horses, the ones with the really good pedigrees do seem to have an advantage. This is assuming the horse is in good form but a lot of youngsters that can get the longer distances sometimes take a little longer to develop.
There are some very sharp colts in this race but I only find a couple who may be sticking around as the distances get longer and the competition tougher. I am handicapping this race mostly by pedigree because I've found that it is the best way to nail those long shots that pop up every year.
Golden Actor is nicely bred and has patterns that indicate he should be able to get the classic distances. At this stage of the game we also have to assess the performances they put forth because they need both pedigree and talent.
Far Right has a combination of my favorite pedigree patterns and I think, although at this point it's hard to say how much class he will show, he should get better as he stretches out to the longer distances.
Mr. Z is very inbred to the Bold Ruler line and I don't think any line has produced as many Derby winners as this one. He looks to be very speedy and has run second to Carpe Diem who was the chalk in the BC Juvy. The BC was won by Texas Red who came from left field to get home first with Carpe Diem second. Mr Z was in a 3 way race for the lead on very fast fractions. They claim that the track was very quick that day so the pace wasn't all that fast, at least that's what people say, but the horses say differently. This looks to be the one to beat but will be short odds so I'll buck him.
Conquest Tsunami looks like a need to lead type and can win races that he can steal but I don't think he can get much distance.
Prime Engine has won both his races including a stretch out but his breeding tells me he will have trouble at the longer distances.
Ocho Ocho Ocho has a pedigree that is a little hard to read and could go either way. Has won both his starts and looks to be a stalker so may handle the longer routes.
1- #6 Golden Actor
2- #3 Mr. Z
3- #9 Far Right
4- #10 Ocho Ocho Ocho
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Friday, June 6, 2014
Belmont Stakes 2014
Belmont Stakes
BEL Sat. 6/7/14
Before getting to the race I'd like to say something about pedigrees and pedigree handicapping.
I read most of the articles written by turf writers and a lot of them get into pedigrees, usually after the fact. I also like to read the comments posted by the readers of the articles. I don't like to disparage the opinion of others, especially when there is no exact science to refer to as in horse racing. However, I have been into pedigrees for over fifty years and there are, believe it or not, some who swear by my method of reading pedigrees enough to pay me to check pedigrees before certain horses are purchased. I'm not here to toot my own horn but rather to say that the biggest majority of turf writers and those who make comments don't have a clue when it comes to breeding. There are pedigree consultants that know what they are doing and I can usually spot a well thought out pedigree and figure out what the breeders aim was.
In the case of California Chrome, who is attempting to win the TC, the "Experts" are crawling out of the woodwork. The first thing they do is to knock the sire because he never won anything to speak of. Next, they jump all over the dam because she was a cheap winner of one race. This crap doesn't mean a thing! They don't realize that some of the greatest horses that ever lived came out of mares that never raced or if they did, amounted to zilch on the race track. Tesio, probably the greatest breeder in history, among other greats, often bred from unraced or unproven mares. Sometimes horses were bred, not to race, but to breed.
I'd like to cite a couple of examples for you. Take the case of Swaps and Nashau who ran that famous match race. Incidentally, I was there to watch Nashua race several times and was really impressed by this beautiful horse. Oh, Nashua won the match, but there were many who said Swaps was a little off his feed at the time.
Here is a list of Nashua wins;
Futurity Stakes (1954)
Hopeful Stakes (1954)
Grand Union Hotel Stakes (1954)
Flamingo Stakes (1955)
Florida Derby (1955)
Arlington Classic (1955)
Wood Memorial Stakes (1955)
Dwyer Stakes (1955)
Jockey Club Gold Cup (1955, 1956)
Grey Lag Handicap (1956)
Monmouth Handicap (1956)
Suburban Handicap (1956)
Widener Handicap (1956)
American Classic Race wins:
Kentucky Derby 2nd (1955)
Preakness Stakes (1955)
Belmont Stakes (1955)
He ran second to Swaps in the KY Derby but took the other 2 legs of the TC.
Swaps was a CA bred horse and one of the reasons I chose these two to talk about is because at the time there was a lot written about the east coast/west coast rivalry.
Swaps also had a great racing record:
San Vicente Stakes (1955)
Santa Anita Derby (1955)
Californian Stakes (1955)
American Derby (1955)
Broward Handicap (1956)
Sunset Handicap (1956)
American Handicap (1956)
Argonaut Handicap (1956)
Hollywood Gold Cup (1956)
Washington Park Handicap (1956)
Triple Crown classic race wins:
Kentucky Derby (1955)
So, what about their record in the breeding end of it?
Swaps dam, Iron Reward, had 8 starts and never hit the board. Swaps was a pretty good sire and sired Chateaugay who won a KY derby and he also sired a great filly named Affectionally who was Champion 2 yr old and went on to win 15 graded stakes.
Nashua, although 12% of his off spring were stakes winners, really made his mark as a broodmare sire. His daughters threw many great ones including Mr Prospector. Mr Prospector, though himself a sprinter, was the start of a great line of distance champions.
Just as an aside, the mighty Secretariat was out of a mare who had 1 race and was out of the money.
So what has this to do with California Chrome? Many "Experts" say he has 2 strikes against him. One is that his sire wasn't much of a race horse and the other is that his dam was a cheap claimer that won but one race.
I have discovered over many years that there are often, what I call, fallow generations. A great horse sires a son who does nothing on the track to speak of, but then goes on to sire some really good ones. CC was sired by Lucky Pulpit who never won a major race but is the son of Pulpit who was not only a good runner, but an outstanding sire. It is my opinion that a lot of great runners become great sires because of the mares that are sent to them. But, and here is where I disagree with most pedigree experts, it is not so much the quality of the mares, which most judge by their performance on the track or if they have thrown prior high class runners, but how the mare matches up with the stallion in terms of bloodlines.
I pay attention to the sires line but not so much to the immediate sire. I give a lot of weight to the mares in the pedigree and their sire lines. There are usually a few horses in the same race with several of the same sires or sire lines represented but I look for more than one mare of the same sire line or what one might call a double dose.
The very first really great horse that I had the pleasure of seeing run was Tom Fool. He was the 2yr old champ in 1951 but was out sick for a few months as a 3 yr old but still won most of his races in 1952. As a 4 yr old he won 10 straight races. He won New Yorks Triple Crown; The Met, Suburban and Brooklyn handicaps. He was out of the money once in 30 races.
As a sire he produced Buckpasser, Tim Tam and Tompion among his 30 stakes winners. Buckpasser won 15 straight races including the 2 mile JGC. He was the leading broodmare sire for 3 years when he retired. Like his sire, he missed the TC races because of a 1/4 crack.
Tim Tam is one of my all time favorites, probably because the first $200. win bet I ever made was on him in the 1958 KY Derby which he won. He won the Preakness and finished second on 3 legs in the Belmont after which he was retired but was still the champion 3 yr old.
There are a few horses in this Belmont that have the Tom Fool line but CC is the only one with a double dose through his dam. The 4th generation dam, Numbered Account, is found twice in that generation. She set a stakes record for 5 1/2f and equaled Round Table's record for 1 1/8. As a broodmare she threw Dance Number and Private Account, the sire of Personal Ensign.
In California Chrome's pedigree, Numbered Account was bred to Northern Dancer and produced Dance Number who equaled a couple of major stakes records and set a new Beldame record for 1 1/4m. NA was also bred to Danzig, a son of Northern Dancer, and produced Polish Numbers who was much sought after as a sire having sired 35 stakes winners.
California Chrome also has a couple of mares, that are well placed in his pedigree, of the Northern Dancer/Nasrullah lines. So, in my opinion, I see no reason to feel that he has a cheap pedigree that says he has no distance ability. Not only does he have distance ability but has a running style that gives him a lot of advantage. Unless something funky happens, I think we will see a Triple Crown winner.
There are a few others in here with nice pedigrees but none of them has matched CC's racing performances.
Wicked Strong is nicely inbred to Northern Dancer and his dam sire is a Derby winner. He's another with a little Tom Fool blood through Buckpasser and Tri Jet but it's kind of far back in the pedigree. I think he can get the distance if going slow enough early but I think he will have too much ground to make up in this.
I really like the pedigree of Medal Count and think he can handle any distance. The problem here is that we don't know how he will handle the track. He didn't run all that bad in the FOY @ GP but I think he was a little closer to the pace of some speed balls than he wanted to be. The #1 post has been very good in previous Belmonts and he may have a shot in this one.
Although a NY bred, Samraat has a fairly nice pedigree and a bit of speed and could contend. He made a nice bid in the Derby but flattened out. Some improvement off that could put him in the thick of things.
I'm undecided about the pedigree of Tonalist and also concerned about his lack of foundation, having had only 4 races. I think he wired a suspect field in the Peter Pan in the slop and I also think that CC may be the real speed in this one.
Commissioner has a pedigree that could go either way but he actually lost ground to Tonalist in his last and he did nothing in the FOY where Medal Count was much more involved.
Commanding Curve Has a nice mix of Bold Ruler and Northern Dancer with a cross of Ribot on the bottom and I feel his breeding has potential. He was closing fast in the Derby from an outside post and lost a ton of ground. I also think his jock, Bridgmohan, is an excellent judge of pace and very under rated. If he can get a little closer early he may have a good chance .
I'm not too keen on Ride On Curlin's pedigree and I think he's shown his best in the Preakness which was a weaker field than this.\
I'm not impressed with General a Rod's breeding but he does have some speed and for some reason I think he is going to show big improvement off his last.
1- #2 California Chrome...he may just be sooo much better than this field.
2- #1 Medal Count...I just feel he will be around at the finish.
3- #4 Commanding Curve...some say this is a jock's race and that could help here.
4- #9 Wicked Strong...needs a good trip but I don't think he will have enough oomph.
Rounding out the super, Samraat and General a Rod.
If I go with CC on top I will have to make my bets very tight in order to get enough value to make it worthwhile so I'll put CC on top of these 5 and hope for a couple of long ones to get close.
BEL Sat. 6/7/14
Before getting to the race I'd like to say something about pedigrees and pedigree handicapping.
I read most of the articles written by turf writers and a lot of them get into pedigrees, usually after the fact. I also like to read the comments posted by the readers of the articles. I don't like to disparage the opinion of others, especially when there is no exact science to refer to as in horse racing. However, I have been into pedigrees for over fifty years and there are, believe it or not, some who swear by my method of reading pedigrees enough to pay me to check pedigrees before certain horses are purchased. I'm not here to toot my own horn but rather to say that the biggest majority of turf writers and those who make comments don't have a clue when it comes to breeding. There are pedigree consultants that know what they are doing and I can usually spot a well thought out pedigree and figure out what the breeders aim was.
In the case of California Chrome, who is attempting to win the TC, the "Experts" are crawling out of the woodwork. The first thing they do is to knock the sire because he never won anything to speak of. Next, they jump all over the dam because she was a cheap winner of one race. This crap doesn't mean a thing! They don't realize that some of the greatest horses that ever lived came out of mares that never raced or if they did, amounted to zilch on the race track. Tesio, probably the greatest breeder in history, among other greats, often bred from unraced or unproven mares. Sometimes horses were bred, not to race, but to breed.
I'd like to cite a couple of examples for you. Take the case of Swaps and Nashau who ran that famous match race. Incidentally, I was there to watch Nashua race several times and was really impressed by this beautiful horse. Oh, Nashua won the match, but there were many who said Swaps was a little off his feed at the time.
Here is a list of Nashua wins;
Futurity Stakes (1954)
Hopeful Stakes (1954)
Grand Union Hotel Stakes (1954)
Flamingo Stakes (1955)
Florida Derby (1955)
Arlington Classic (1955)
Wood Memorial Stakes (1955)
Dwyer Stakes (1955)
Jockey Club Gold Cup (1955, 1956)
Grey Lag Handicap (1956)
Monmouth Handicap (1956)
Suburban Handicap (1956)
Widener Handicap (1956)
American Classic Race wins:
Kentucky Derby 2nd (1955)
Preakness Stakes (1955)
Belmont Stakes (1955)
He ran second to Swaps in the KY Derby but took the other 2 legs of the TC.
Swaps was a CA bred horse and one of the reasons I chose these two to talk about is because at the time there was a lot written about the east coast/west coast rivalry.
Swaps also had a great racing record:
San Vicente Stakes (1955)
Santa Anita Derby (1955)
Californian Stakes (1955)
American Derby (1955)
Broward Handicap (1956)
Sunset Handicap (1956)
American Handicap (1956)
Argonaut Handicap (1956)
Hollywood Gold Cup (1956)
Washington Park Handicap (1956)
Triple Crown classic race wins:
Kentucky Derby (1955)
So, what about their record in the breeding end of it?
Swaps dam, Iron Reward, had 8 starts and never hit the board. Swaps was a pretty good sire and sired Chateaugay who won a KY derby and he also sired a great filly named Affectionally who was Champion 2 yr old and went on to win 15 graded stakes.
Nashua, although 12% of his off spring were stakes winners, really made his mark as a broodmare sire. His daughters threw many great ones including Mr Prospector. Mr Prospector, though himself a sprinter, was the start of a great line of distance champions.
Just as an aside, the mighty Secretariat was out of a mare who had 1 race and was out of the money.
So what has this to do with California Chrome? Many "Experts" say he has 2 strikes against him. One is that his sire wasn't much of a race horse and the other is that his dam was a cheap claimer that won but one race.
I have discovered over many years that there are often, what I call, fallow generations. A great horse sires a son who does nothing on the track to speak of, but then goes on to sire some really good ones. CC was sired by Lucky Pulpit who never won a major race but is the son of Pulpit who was not only a good runner, but an outstanding sire. It is my opinion that a lot of great runners become great sires because of the mares that are sent to them. But, and here is where I disagree with most pedigree experts, it is not so much the quality of the mares, which most judge by their performance on the track or if they have thrown prior high class runners, but how the mare matches up with the stallion in terms of bloodlines.
I pay attention to the sires line but not so much to the immediate sire. I give a lot of weight to the mares in the pedigree and their sire lines. There are usually a few horses in the same race with several of the same sires or sire lines represented but I look for more than one mare of the same sire line or what one might call a double dose.
The very first really great horse that I had the pleasure of seeing run was Tom Fool. He was the 2yr old champ in 1951 but was out sick for a few months as a 3 yr old but still won most of his races in 1952. As a 4 yr old he won 10 straight races. He won New Yorks Triple Crown; The Met, Suburban and Brooklyn handicaps. He was out of the money once in 30 races.
As a sire he produced Buckpasser, Tim Tam and Tompion among his 30 stakes winners. Buckpasser won 15 straight races including the 2 mile JGC. He was the leading broodmare sire for 3 years when he retired. Like his sire, he missed the TC races because of a 1/4 crack.
Tim Tam is one of my all time favorites, probably because the first $200. win bet I ever made was on him in the 1958 KY Derby which he won. He won the Preakness and finished second on 3 legs in the Belmont after which he was retired but was still the champion 3 yr old.
There are a few horses in this Belmont that have the Tom Fool line but CC is the only one with a double dose through his dam. The 4th generation dam, Numbered Account, is found twice in that generation. She set a stakes record for 5 1/2f and equaled Round Table's record for 1 1/8. As a broodmare she threw Dance Number and Private Account, the sire of Personal Ensign.
In California Chrome's pedigree, Numbered Account was bred to Northern Dancer and produced Dance Number who equaled a couple of major stakes records and set a new Beldame record for 1 1/4m. NA was also bred to Danzig, a son of Northern Dancer, and produced Polish Numbers who was much sought after as a sire having sired 35 stakes winners.
California Chrome also has a couple of mares, that are well placed in his pedigree, of the Northern Dancer/Nasrullah lines. So, in my opinion, I see no reason to feel that he has a cheap pedigree that says he has no distance ability. Not only does he have distance ability but has a running style that gives him a lot of advantage. Unless something funky happens, I think we will see a Triple Crown winner.
There are a few others in here with nice pedigrees but none of them has matched CC's racing performances.
Wicked Strong is nicely inbred to Northern Dancer and his dam sire is a Derby winner. He's another with a little Tom Fool blood through Buckpasser and Tri Jet but it's kind of far back in the pedigree. I think he can get the distance if going slow enough early but I think he will have too much ground to make up in this.
I really like the pedigree of Medal Count and think he can handle any distance. The problem here is that we don't know how he will handle the track. He didn't run all that bad in the FOY @ GP but I think he was a little closer to the pace of some speed balls than he wanted to be. The #1 post has been very good in previous Belmonts and he may have a shot in this one.
Although a NY bred, Samraat has a fairly nice pedigree and a bit of speed and could contend. He made a nice bid in the Derby but flattened out. Some improvement off that could put him in the thick of things.
I'm undecided about the pedigree of Tonalist and also concerned about his lack of foundation, having had only 4 races. I think he wired a suspect field in the Peter Pan in the slop and I also think that CC may be the real speed in this one.
Commissioner has a pedigree that could go either way but he actually lost ground to Tonalist in his last and he did nothing in the FOY where Medal Count was much more involved.
Commanding Curve Has a nice mix of Bold Ruler and Northern Dancer with a cross of Ribot on the bottom and I feel his breeding has potential. He was closing fast in the Derby from an outside post and lost a ton of ground. I also think his jock, Bridgmohan, is an excellent judge of pace and very under rated. If he can get a little closer early he may have a good chance .
I'm not too keen on Ride On Curlin's pedigree and I think he's shown his best in the Preakness which was a weaker field than this.\
I'm not impressed with General a Rod's breeding but he does have some speed and for some reason I think he is going to show big improvement off his last.
1- #2 California Chrome...he may just be sooo much better than this field.
2- #1 Medal Count...I just feel he will be around at the finish.
3- #4 Commanding Curve...some say this is a jock's race and that could help here.
4- #9 Wicked Strong...needs a good trip but I don't think he will have enough oomph.
Rounding out the super, Samraat and General a Rod.
If I go with CC on top I will have to make my bets very tight in order to get enough value to make it worthwhile so I'll put CC on top of these 5 and hope for a couple of long ones to get close.
Friday, May 2, 2014
KY Derby - 2014
Kentucky Derby- 2014
There have been 34 Derby prep races offering points which has resulted in 30 different winners. What does this tell us? It tells me that this years 3yr old crop must be very evenly matched and the winners are determined by the dynamics of each race, the condition of the horses in each race or just plain racing luck. In other words, there just doesn't seem to be any horses that are so much better than the rest that we would see a lot of multiple winners.
There are 4 horses that have won 2 of the preps and they are California Chrome, Vicar's In Trouble,Tapiture and Samraat and CC is the only one of these that I give a shot.
California Chrome looks good at first glance but I will try to beat him for a couple of reasons, not the least of which, is that he's the chalk. I don't think he's beaten any decent horses that were in top shape, he's been running on a super highway where, in his last race, every race on the day was won by a horse setting or pressing the pace, and finally, I think he may have peaked and might regress. I will use him in some saver bets but I think if he can't win he will be off the board.
Danza is the big question mark to me. His pedigree could go either way but since he has won at 9f I would have to lean toward him having distance breeding. What he did last time, coming off a 7 month layoff, going from a few sprints to a distance race and blowing them away was a dominating race. I'm concerned with his running such a big race in his first distance race and wonder if he has anything left in the tank. I had been looking all year for a horse that stood out from the rest and, even though a lot of handicappers think that CC is the one, I have my doubts about him. I think if Danza can improve off his last that he will be the class of the field. He reminds me a lot of I'll Have Another in that he has the speed to always get involved and has a nice closing kick. There's a lot of speed in this race and I feel like Bravo will get a nice rail trip and wins this going away, unless he bounces, but I'll take my chances with him.
Candy Boy has the pedigree I like best and think he was really short in his first race in 2 months. Also, he was too close to the pace in his last and that's not where he wants to be especially trying to catch a speed ball on a track totally biased toward speed. He has a little more speed than most of the closers but Stevens will have to judge his move just right. He has been working super good over the track and looks like he may take a big jump forward.
Chitu has a super nice pedigree with a good out cross. Has never run a bad race, has plenty of speed and doesn't look like he needs the lead. He also has been working nicely.
Wicked Strong looks to be really coming into his own and is bred well enough to get the distance. Reports say he hasn't looked bad in his works but the post may take him too far off the pace and he will have a lot of ground to make up.
Wildcat Red is another with a nice classic pedigree, has plenty of speed and always brings his A game to the show. May be really stubborn down the lane.
Medal Count is coming to his 3rd race in a month but he may be the type that thrives on a lot of racing. His pedigree, featuring those mares of the Ribot line, tells me that if the Pony Express had him the riders wouldn't have had to change horses very often. Has a little speed to get into the flow but the question is, how will he like the track?
1- #4 Danza
2- #18 Candy Boy
3- #13 Chitu
4- #20 Wicked Strong
Long Shots- Wildcat Red, Medal Count, Ride On Curlin and Dance With Fate
As I said, I will user a saver on top of these with Cal. Chrome
There have been 34 Derby prep races offering points which has resulted in 30 different winners. What does this tell us? It tells me that this years 3yr old crop must be very evenly matched and the winners are determined by the dynamics of each race, the condition of the horses in each race or just plain racing luck. In other words, there just doesn't seem to be any horses that are so much better than the rest that we would see a lot of multiple winners.
There are 4 horses that have won 2 of the preps and they are California Chrome, Vicar's In Trouble,Tapiture and Samraat and CC is the only one of these that I give a shot.
California Chrome looks good at first glance but I will try to beat him for a couple of reasons, not the least of which, is that he's the chalk. I don't think he's beaten any decent horses that were in top shape, he's been running on a super highway where, in his last race, every race on the day was won by a horse setting or pressing the pace, and finally, I think he may have peaked and might regress. I will use him in some saver bets but I think if he can't win he will be off the board.
Danza is the big question mark to me. His pedigree could go either way but since he has won at 9f I would have to lean toward him having distance breeding. What he did last time, coming off a 7 month layoff, going from a few sprints to a distance race and blowing them away was a dominating race. I'm concerned with his running such a big race in his first distance race and wonder if he has anything left in the tank. I had been looking all year for a horse that stood out from the rest and, even though a lot of handicappers think that CC is the one, I have my doubts about him. I think if Danza can improve off his last that he will be the class of the field. He reminds me a lot of I'll Have Another in that he has the speed to always get involved and has a nice closing kick. There's a lot of speed in this race and I feel like Bravo will get a nice rail trip and wins this going away, unless he bounces, but I'll take my chances with him.
Candy Boy has the pedigree I like best and think he was really short in his first race in 2 months. Also, he was too close to the pace in his last and that's not where he wants to be especially trying to catch a speed ball on a track totally biased toward speed. He has a little more speed than most of the closers but Stevens will have to judge his move just right. He has been working super good over the track and looks like he may take a big jump forward.
Chitu has a super nice pedigree with a good out cross. Has never run a bad race, has plenty of speed and doesn't look like he needs the lead. He also has been working nicely.
Wicked Strong looks to be really coming into his own and is bred well enough to get the distance. Reports say he hasn't looked bad in his works but the post may take him too far off the pace and he will have a lot of ground to make up.
Wildcat Red is another with a nice classic pedigree, has plenty of speed and always brings his A game to the show. May be really stubborn down the lane.
Medal Count is coming to his 3rd race in a month but he may be the type that thrives on a lot of racing. His pedigree, featuring those mares of the Ribot line, tells me that if the Pony Express had him the riders wouldn't have had to change horses very often. Has a little speed to get into the flow but the question is, how will he like the track?
1- #4 Danza
2- #18 Candy Boy
3- #13 Chitu
4- #20 Wicked Strong
Long Shots- Wildcat Red, Medal Count, Ride On Curlin and Dance With Fate
As I said, I will user a saver on top of these with Cal. Chrome
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Arkansas Derby Sat. 4/12/14
Arkansas Derby
Sat. 4/12/14 OP R11
There have been 31 races so far that offer Derby points and there have been 27 different winners. I'm not sure what this means as to the quality of this years crop but it looks like California Chrome is the best of them based on his performance so far.
Some trainers have taken a chance and put all their eggs in one basket and it hasn't worked so well and they have missed a chance to get to the big show. There are only three races left in which points may be picked up and two are this weekend leaving the Lexington which only offers 10 points to the winner. So, it looks like the two races today, the Blue Grass and the ARK Derby, will probably be the last chance for most. One would think this race would have a full field but there are only 9 entries which probably means a lot of trainers are no longer looking at the Derby and pointing for the Preakness.
The big question in this race is Bayern, at least in my opinion. His pedigree looks nice but I don't know if he can get the Derby distance. Baffert does so well bringing horses to Oaklawn that we can be almost sure this one will be ready for a big race and Stevens has made the trip, probably because he doesn't think Candy Boy will have enough points to make the Derby.
The contenders here are also the ones with the best pedigrees so I'm not looking for a big upset.
Strong Mandate is one I had been high on but he just hasn't put it together yet. I think that early on he was regarded as a speed horse but that hasn't worked out for him. In the Southwest he got off to a bad start and closed very nicely but had too much to do. I believe he would be much better with a stalking trip and that's what I'm looking for today.
Tapiture has been good in all his races and is very game. He is bred for distance and is the one to beat here plus Joel switches to him from Strong Mandate. I do feel that Joel wasn't the right fit for SM because I thought he was too aggressive.
Bayern looks to be a fast one but he did put up slow fractions at SA and I have doubts about his distance abilities.
Ride On Curlin is a nice horse but I think he is just a cut below these and would have to run really big to take this.
Conquest Titan has shown signs of getting better and if they fold up front he may have a chance.
1- #9 Strong Mandate
2- #3 Tapiture
3- # 8 Bayern
4- #4 Ride On Curlin
Long Shot- Conquest Titan
Sat. 4/12/14 OP R11
There have been 31 races so far that offer Derby points and there have been 27 different winners. I'm not sure what this means as to the quality of this years crop but it looks like California Chrome is the best of them based on his performance so far.
Some trainers have taken a chance and put all their eggs in one basket and it hasn't worked so well and they have missed a chance to get to the big show. There are only three races left in which points may be picked up and two are this weekend leaving the Lexington which only offers 10 points to the winner. So, it looks like the two races today, the Blue Grass and the ARK Derby, will probably be the last chance for most. One would think this race would have a full field but there are only 9 entries which probably means a lot of trainers are no longer looking at the Derby and pointing for the Preakness.
The big question in this race is Bayern, at least in my opinion. His pedigree looks nice but I don't know if he can get the Derby distance. Baffert does so well bringing horses to Oaklawn that we can be almost sure this one will be ready for a big race and Stevens has made the trip, probably because he doesn't think Candy Boy will have enough points to make the Derby.
The contenders here are also the ones with the best pedigrees so I'm not looking for a big upset.
Strong Mandate is one I had been high on but he just hasn't put it together yet. I think that early on he was regarded as a speed horse but that hasn't worked out for him. In the Southwest he got off to a bad start and closed very nicely but had too much to do. I believe he would be much better with a stalking trip and that's what I'm looking for today.
Tapiture has been good in all his races and is very game. He is bred for distance and is the one to beat here plus Joel switches to him from Strong Mandate. I do feel that Joel wasn't the right fit for SM because I thought he was too aggressive.
Bayern looks to be a fast one but he did put up slow fractions at SA and I have doubts about his distance abilities.
Ride On Curlin is a nice horse but I think he is just a cut below these and would have to run really big to take this.
Conquest Titan has shown signs of getting better and if they fold up front he may have a chance.
1- #9 Strong Mandate
2- #3 Tapiture
3- # 8 Bayern
4- #4 Ride On Curlin
Long Shot- Conquest Titan
Saturday, March 22, 2014
The Spiral 3/22/14
Spiral G3
Turfway PK R11 3/22/14
The Cash Call Fut. run at HOL back in Dec. didn't carry any Derby points but it was a G1 race with a full field of nice colts. Shared Belief, by virtue of his victory, jumped to the top of most handicappers list of derby contenders. But Shared Belief is among several leading contenders to become sidelined along the way due to set backs of one kind or another.
The reason I mention this race is that Candy Boy, who ran second, came back to win the Lewis and Tamarando, who finished third bounced back to take the El Camino which makes the CC a probable key race. Since the field for the Derby looks kind of wide open at this point I am going to assume that any that were close to Shared Belief are pretty nice horses.
Tamarando has a super nice pedigree and looks like he can get any distance. His worse race is a 4th in his first start which was a short sprint but he hasn't been off the board since. He has a terrific closing kick and is really fun to watch. He comes into this race off a win in the El Camino where he was ridden for the first time by R. Baze with a furious charge down the stretch. Personally, I would love to see Baze in the Derby on a contender.
There is some speed in here and I think Almost Famous has most of it. he had a bad start in his last so I'm throwing that race out. He has a lovely pedigree but the question is how he will take to the poly track. If he likes the track he may carry his speed a long way.
Solitary Ranger has sort of an unusual pedigree with a few older past champions close up in his breeding. He has speed and has wired the field in his last two. He likes the synthetic track and may be the one to beat.
We Miss Artie from the Pletcher barn likes the synth. track and is a useful sort and, although his breeding is nice, I think he will have a problem with the longer distances but this type can sometimes get 1 1/8.
1- #4 Tamarando
2- #9 Almost Famous
3- #8 Solitary Ranger
4- #11 We Miss Artie
Long Shot- #6 Smart Cover
Backstretch
Turfway PK R11 3/22/14
The Cash Call Fut. run at HOL back in Dec. didn't carry any Derby points but it was a G1 race with a full field of nice colts. Shared Belief, by virtue of his victory, jumped to the top of most handicappers list of derby contenders. But Shared Belief is among several leading contenders to become sidelined along the way due to set backs of one kind or another.
The reason I mention this race is that Candy Boy, who ran second, came back to win the Lewis and Tamarando, who finished third bounced back to take the El Camino which makes the CC a probable key race. Since the field for the Derby looks kind of wide open at this point I am going to assume that any that were close to Shared Belief are pretty nice horses.
Tamarando has a super nice pedigree and looks like he can get any distance. His worse race is a 4th in his first start which was a short sprint but he hasn't been off the board since. He has a terrific closing kick and is really fun to watch. He comes into this race off a win in the El Camino where he was ridden for the first time by R. Baze with a furious charge down the stretch. Personally, I would love to see Baze in the Derby on a contender.
There is some speed in here and I think Almost Famous has most of it. he had a bad start in his last so I'm throwing that race out. He has a lovely pedigree but the question is how he will take to the poly track. If he likes the track he may carry his speed a long way.
Solitary Ranger has sort of an unusual pedigree with a few older past champions close up in his breeding. He has speed and has wired the field in his last two. He likes the synthetic track and may be the one to beat.
We Miss Artie from the Pletcher barn likes the synth. track and is a useful sort and, although his breeding is nice, I think he will have a problem with the longer distances but this type can sometimes get 1 1/8.
1- #4 Tamarando
2- #9 Almost Famous
3- #8 Solitary Ranger
4- #11 We Miss Artie
Long Shot- #6 Smart Cover
Backstretch
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Rebel Stakes G2 Sat. 3/15/14
The Rebel-G2
OP R10 Sat. 3/15/14
This looks to be a decent field of well bred youngsters. It seems like every week there is a newcomer popping up with a terrific race while a lot of the early top contenders are ending up on the disabled list. Who knows, we might have another top performance by one of these.
I have liked the pedigree of Strong Mandate since day one but he's a lousy trips in his last two. In the BC he had a far outside post and was hard used early but hung in very well. In the Southwest he got a bad break and then encountered a lot of traffic while trying to make his move. He couldn't catch the leader who had a perfect trip but being that he does have a lot of speed he may get the perfect stalking trip today.
Tapiture is a nicely bred colt and always seems to fire. If he goes for the front it may boil down to a duel with Strong Mandate and I don't think either wants the other to get loose in front.
Street Strategy is a really nice colt with great bloodlines who just broke his maiden in fine style. Bred to go a distance, he may upset this field being that he looks to be in a position to improve some more.
Kobe's Back just blew away the field in a G2 sprint but I'm not too sure he's going to be that good around 2 turns.
Hoppertunity is another in the Baffert stable to try and win the Rebel. Baffert has had huge success in these Oaklawn stakes and can never be underestimated although I don't like where this one is at in his form cycle. Nice breeding and Mike Smith is in for the ride.
1- #4 Strong Mandate
2- #3 Tapiture
3- #7 Street Strategy
4- #8 Kobe's Back
OP R10 Sat. 3/15/14
This looks to be a decent field of well bred youngsters. It seems like every week there is a newcomer popping up with a terrific race while a lot of the early top contenders are ending up on the disabled list. Who knows, we might have another top performance by one of these.
I have liked the pedigree of Strong Mandate since day one but he's a lousy trips in his last two. In the BC he had a far outside post and was hard used early but hung in very well. In the Southwest he got a bad break and then encountered a lot of traffic while trying to make his move. He couldn't catch the leader who had a perfect trip but being that he does have a lot of speed he may get the perfect stalking trip today.
Tapiture is a nicely bred colt and always seems to fire. If he goes for the front it may boil down to a duel with Strong Mandate and I don't think either wants the other to get loose in front.
Street Strategy is a really nice colt with great bloodlines who just broke his maiden in fine style. Bred to go a distance, he may upset this field being that he looks to be in a position to improve some more.
Kobe's Back just blew away the field in a G2 sprint but I'm not too sure he's going to be that good around 2 turns.
Hoppertunity is another in the Baffert stable to try and win the Rebel. Baffert has had huge success in these Oaklawn stakes and can never be underestimated although I don't like where this one is at in his form cycle. Nice breeding and Mike Smith is in for the ride.
1- #4 Strong Mandate
2- #3 Tapiture
3- #7 Street Strategy
4- #8 Kobe's Back
Saturday, March 1, 2014
The Gotham- G3 3/1/14
The Gotham G3
AQU R9 3/1/14
This is a 50 point race but I doubt very much if the KY Derby winner will be found in this field. At Gulfstream Park today there are 3 or 4 races for 3 yr olds and I feel like there are probably a few of them that would take the measure of this field yet most of them are running in allowance races. In addition, most of the first string jocks have elected to stay in FL.
This race is featuring an undefeated horse who has won all four of his starts. He may be as good as his connections think but I have serious doubts about him. He's a NY bred that has beat up on state breds in his first 3 races. In his last he did win the Withers which is a G3 race but I thought it was nothing more than a low grade alw. race. It was all Samraat could do to beat Uncle Sigh, another state bred. This is not to say a NY bred can't be good but I want to see him defeat open company before I jump on his band wagon.
Samraat has a nice pedigree but of the type that my experience tells me he can't get the longer distances. This is only a shade over a mile so is well within his scope but I'm going to buck him, especially at the short odds he will go off at. I will probably use him on top of some exotics as a saver in case I'm totally wrong about him.
Uncle Sigh is inbred to Northern Dancer so I can't fault him much and he did give a good battle to Samraat in his last but I think he is also suspect because of the quality of the Withers.
In Trouble has a lot of different crosses in his pedigree but they all speak of distance ability. He's won both of his sprint starts and his last was very speedy in a G2 race at BEL. Has a good post and inside speed is dangerous at this track. I don't think he will go for the lead but should be in striking distance of the leaders.
Harpoon has a pedigree I really like and should be able to get a classic distance. He went for a half mil at the sales so I assume he is quite handsome. He lost the Sam Davis by a nose in his last and I would have him on top here except for his outside post.
Extrasexyhippzster is another with very nice breeding that should like a distance. Has enough speed to get into the hunt early but will rate. Should have good position just off the pace and may have a nice closing kick.
Financial Mogul is a strong late runner that was in pretty deep last time and looked to be a little short. He will be looking to pick up the pieces if his stablemate falters in the lane.
1- #2 In Trouble
2- #10 Harpoon
3- #8 Extrasexyhippzster
4- #3 Financial Mogul
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Fountain of Youth 2/22/14
Fountain of Youth
GP R11 Sat. 2/22/14
There are some very nicely bred colts in this race and lots of speed. A few of these with really nice classic pedigrees haven't shown enough speed yet but they still have room to improve. If I were to go simply on speed figures the horses on top would probably be horses that have been very good against lesser rivals but that doesn't mean that would be that good when meeting classier colts.
Almost Famous has a pedigree I really like. I think his last race ws a lot better than his finish shows because he really hung in pretty good after a long battle for the lead. I just feel he can put away the speed in here and will be tough to catch.
Commissioner has the kind of breeding, although fairly common, that has produced a lot of classic type horses. He's shown a liking for a distance and should get a good stalking trip from the rail.
General a Rod has looked good in all his races and ran a good second to Conquest Titan. Doesn't seem to need the lead but will not be far off the pace and should make it interesting.
Medal Count is another with a pedigree I like but he just hasn't shown the speed needed as yet. He has those Ribot mares in his pedigree that tells me that if he can garner enough points to get in he will be my under the radar horse for the Derby or else he will have a shot at the Belmont. Right now he's got to step up to the plate in this or his next and get some points. He probably should have gone to the Risen Star rather than here with this speed favoring track.
Top Billing, like Orb, has one of those pedigrees that are hard to decipher but Shug always seems to get them to outrun their pedigree. He may close to get a piece but I'm not using him because of short odds and he may have too much to make up in this race.
I'm shooting in here for a price because I haven't seen anyone yet that looks unstoppable.
1- Almost Famous
2- Commissioner
3- General a Rod
4- Medal Count
Long Shots- C. Zee, Wildcat Red, We Miss Artie
PS- Just didn't have time to get to the Risen Star...
Saturday, February 15, 2014
The EL Camino Real Derby 2/15/14
El Camino Real G3
GG R8 2/15/14
This is only a G3 race and I don't think this race usually gets very much attention but this year I think it should. As far as pedigrees go, this is a really good field.
With Craftsman we finally see a nice horse that had been trained by O'Brien that's not put on a plane and brought over here and dropped into the Derby without at least one work over the track. This guy made his first start in Dec. and that was on the grass where he was favored but didn't run much at all. The question is: Will he take to the synthetic track? He's had a chance to really get acclimated and has steady works on the dirt at SA. He has a really nice pedigree except for one factor, the Mr P mares in the influential spots. He can probably get 9f but I doubt he can go 10f. He gets blinkers today and may be a lot closer to this race that is lacking in early speed.
Tamarando I think will relish the extra distance because his breeding tells me he can run all day. He's at a disadvantage today with the lack of speed in here. The pace may be slow but it's possible that Baze may put him a little closer to a slow pace. At this point in time he may have a little edge in experience and class. After all, he did run third to Shared Belief and Candy Boy in the Cash Call and Candy Boy came out of that and took the RB Lewis last week.
Enterprising is probably the speed in this and Stevens may just gun him to the front. He has a nice pedigree With the sire and dam sire being of the Northern Dancer line. He stretched out last time and ran well in the CA Derby and was slowly getting to the winner.
Infosec, I'll Wrap it Up and Dance With Fate may run close to the pace but I think all three have some distance limitations even though they are nicely bred. Of course, when I say that I'm referring to the Derby distance.
Puppy Manners being sired by Kitten's Joy and inbred to Northern Dancer probably wants more distance. He's had 8 races already and he wasn't tried around 2 turns till his last. I look for a big improvement from him but he may have the same problem as his stablemate with the lack of speed in this.
1- Craftsman
2- Tamarando
3- Enterprising
4- Puppy Manners
Backstretch
GG R8 2/15/14
This is only a G3 race and I don't think this race usually gets very much attention but this year I think it should. As far as pedigrees go, this is a really good field.
With Craftsman we finally see a nice horse that had been trained by O'Brien that's not put on a plane and brought over here and dropped into the Derby without at least one work over the track. This guy made his first start in Dec. and that was on the grass where he was favored but didn't run much at all. The question is: Will he take to the synthetic track? He's had a chance to really get acclimated and has steady works on the dirt at SA. He has a really nice pedigree except for one factor, the Mr P mares in the influential spots. He can probably get 9f but I doubt he can go 10f. He gets blinkers today and may be a lot closer to this race that is lacking in early speed.
Tamarando I think will relish the extra distance because his breeding tells me he can run all day. He's at a disadvantage today with the lack of speed in here. The pace may be slow but it's possible that Baze may put him a little closer to a slow pace. At this point in time he may have a little edge in experience and class. After all, he did run third to Shared Belief and Candy Boy in the Cash Call and Candy Boy came out of that and took the RB Lewis last week.
Enterprising is probably the speed in this and Stevens may just gun him to the front. He has a nice pedigree With the sire and dam sire being of the Northern Dancer line. He stretched out last time and ran well in the CA Derby and was slowly getting to the winner.
Infosec, I'll Wrap it Up and Dance With Fate may run close to the pace but I think all three have some distance limitations even though they are nicely bred. Of course, when I say that I'm referring to the Derby distance.
Puppy Manners being sired by Kitten's Joy and inbred to Northern Dancer probably wants more distance. He's had 8 races already and he wasn't tried around 2 turns till his last. I look for a big improvement from him but he may have the same problem as his stablemate with the lack of speed in this.
1- Craftsman
2- Tamarando
3- Enterprising
4- Puppy Manners
Backstretch
Saturday, February 8, 2014
The RB Lewis 2/8/14
The RB Lewis
SA R8 2/8/14
Not a big field but a few very nice ones in here. Baffert has a couple of good looking prospects in this and they could run 1-2. I believe he had planned on running Chitu somewhere else but changed his mind.
Midnight Hawk has had 2 races and looked very impressive in both, especially when taking the Sham in his last. I'm a little undecided about his pedigree but he can't be faulted so far and will probably be odds on today.
I really like the breeding of Chitu better than his stable mate but he hasn't met stakes company yet. I heard that he may be in here to be a rabbit for Midnight Hawk but I don't think so. In fact, I think, off his pedigree, he has a good chance to take home all the marbles.
Candy Boy is another with a lovely pedigree with a couple of Nasrullah mares in the key positions. He had to stretch out to break his maiden but did it in fine style. He ran a bang up race last time in the Cash Call and had the lead coming into the stretch but couldn't hold off Shared Belief who is the favorite in the Derby futures right now. He could be very tough in here.
Cool Samurai is a really inbred colt and I like the Northern Dancer mares in the important spots in his pedigree. He looks like he wants some distance but hasn't shown the speed of the top 3 yet. But, you never can tell because these young horses can show so much improvement race to race.
El Nino Terrible doesn't have the figures yet but his type are usually very fast at this distance. With those Mr P mares in his pedigree I just don't think he can get the derby distance but may be a factor along the way.
1- Midnight Hawk
2- Candy Boy
3- Chitu
Long Shot- Cool Samurai
Backstretch
SA R8 2/8/14
Not a big field but a few very nice ones in here. Baffert has a couple of good looking prospects in this and they could run 1-2. I believe he had planned on running Chitu somewhere else but changed his mind.
Midnight Hawk has had 2 races and looked very impressive in both, especially when taking the Sham in his last. I'm a little undecided about his pedigree but he can't be faulted so far and will probably be odds on today.
I really like the breeding of Chitu better than his stable mate but he hasn't met stakes company yet. I heard that he may be in here to be a rabbit for Midnight Hawk but I don't think so. In fact, I think, off his pedigree, he has a good chance to take home all the marbles.
Candy Boy is another with a lovely pedigree with a couple of Nasrullah mares in the key positions. He had to stretch out to break his maiden but did it in fine style. He ran a bang up race last time in the Cash Call and had the lead coming into the stretch but couldn't hold off Shared Belief who is the favorite in the Derby futures right now. He could be very tough in here.
Cool Samurai is a really inbred colt and I like the Northern Dancer mares in the important spots in his pedigree. He looks like he wants some distance but hasn't shown the speed of the top 3 yet. But, you never can tell because these young horses can show so much improvement race to race.
El Nino Terrible doesn't have the figures yet but his type are usually very fast at this distance. With those Mr P mares in his pedigree I just don't think he can get the derby distance but may be a factor along the way.
1- Midnight Hawk
2- Candy Boy
3- Chitu
Long Shot- Cool Samurai
Backstretch
Saturday, February 1, 2014
The Withers
The Withers
AQU R9 2/1/14
Another race with a big 6 entries and the 2 favorites are NY breds with this being their first start in open company. They both have speed and have also won around 2 turns already.
I don't think this race is going to have much of an impact although I do like the pedigrees of a couple of them. Since I'm not too interested in this race I won't bother with a lot of comment.
1- Street Gent...a very nice pedigree and can get the distance but may need a race or two.
2- Scotland...another with very nice breeding.
3- Samraat...a mixed up pedigree but it's working because he's 3 for 3 against state breds.
4- Classic Giacnroll...not too fond of his breeding but looks to be somewhat of a runner and is sitting on a big race.
Backstretch
AQU R9 2/1/14
Another race with a big 6 entries and the 2 favorites are NY breds with this being their first start in open company. They both have speed and have also won around 2 turns already.
I don't think this race is going to have much of an impact although I do like the pedigrees of a couple of them. Since I'm not too interested in this race I won't bother with a lot of comment.
1- Street Gent...a very nice pedigree and can get the distance but may need a race or two.
2- Scotland...another with very nice breeding.
3- Samraat...a mixed up pedigree but it's working because he's 3 for 3 against state breds.
4- Classic Giacnroll...not too fond of his breeding but looks to be somewhat of a runner and is sitting on a big race.
Backstretch
Saturday, January 25, 2014
The Holy Bull....Sat. 1/25/14
The Holy Bull G2
GP - Sat. 1/25/14 R10
Finally, a race with some horses that have actually beaten or ran well against something beside maidens. This looks to be the best 3yr old race so far and it is a full field of competitive looking colts.
There are some very well bred colts in this, and since I like to handicap these races by pedigree, I will try to nail something at nice odds. If one just considers speed figures there are numerous possibilities so it should make for an interesting race. Most of the speed seems to be toward the rail so it looks like the closing horses may have a lot of ground to make up. Of course, it all depends on how fast they go up front whether or not they fade in the end.
Cairo Prince will probably be the favorite but he probably won't be real short odds. He has a nice pedigree that has a few much older horses close up in his breeding. I see no reason to say he can't get a classic distance.
Wicked Strong is another well bred colt who ran close up to Cairo Prince last time and may have been compromised by the extremely slow pace that he was closing into. A little more pace and he could be dangerous here.
Coup de Grace is a Tappit colt and as a rule I don't favor them at the classic distances but it may be because a lot of them happen to have a lot of RAN mares in the key spots in their pedigree which doesn't bode well for the classic distances. This one however has a nice Ribot cross which may increase his chances of getting the longer distances.
Mr Speaker is one of those Phipps horses that, like Orb, can be very good or kind of mediocre. They have a tendency to confuse me somewhat. Also, this one has been very good so far on the grass and I'll wait to see what he does on the dirt.
Almost Famous has a lovely pedigree with the paternal G. Dam being a really nice cross brought into the Northern Dancer line and the cross being bred back into the Northern Dancer, Nasrullah lines. I really like this pedigree and he may be one that has speed and can run all day.
As I've said, this is a group of well bred youngsters and most of them brought some very high prices at the sales so I would assume they were all quite handsome. Most of them have run well and show some real talent and there are some speed figures that are not all that far apart. I will lean to the pedigrees I like best.
1- Almost Famous
2- Coup de Grace
3- Wicked Strong
4-Cairo Prince
Long Shots- Our Caravan, Financial Mogul
Backstretch
GP - Sat. 1/25/14 R10
Finally, a race with some horses that have actually beaten or ran well against something beside maidens. This looks to be the best 3yr old race so far and it is a full field of competitive looking colts.
There are some very well bred colts in this, and since I like to handicap these races by pedigree, I will try to nail something at nice odds. If one just considers speed figures there are numerous possibilities so it should make for an interesting race. Most of the speed seems to be toward the rail so it looks like the closing horses may have a lot of ground to make up. Of course, it all depends on how fast they go up front whether or not they fade in the end.
Cairo Prince will probably be the favorite but he probably won't be real short odds. He has a nice pedigree that has a few much older horses close up in his breeding. I see no reason to say he can't get a classic distance.
Wicked Strong is another well bred colt who ran close up to Cairo Prince last time and may have been compromised by the extremely slow pace that he was closing into. A little more pace and he could be dangerous here.
Coup de Grace is a Tappit colt and as a rule I don't favor them at the classic distances but it may be because a lot of them happen to have a lot of RAN mares in the key spots in their pedigree which doesn't bode well for the classic distances. This one however has a nice Ribot cross which may increase his chances of getting the longer distances.
Mr Speaker is one of those Phipps horses that, like Orb, can be very good or kind of mediocre. They have a tendency to confuse me somewhat. Also, this one has been very good so far on the grass and I'll wait to see what he does on the dirt.
Almost Famous has a lovely pedigree with the paternal G. Dam being a really nice cross brought into the Northern Dancer line and the cross being bred back into the Northern Dancer, Nasrullah lines. I really like this pedigree and he may be one that has speed and can run all day.
As I've said, this is a group of well bred youngsters and most of them brought some very high prices at the sales so I would assume they were all quite handsome. Most of them have run well and show some real talent and there are some speed figures that are not all that far apart. I will lean to the pedigrees I like best.
1- Almost Famous
2- Coup de Grace
3- Wicked Strong
4-Cairo Prince
Long Shots- Our Caravan, Financial Mogul
Backstretch
Friday, January 17, 2014
The LeComte Sat. 1/18/14
The LeComte G3
FG R9 Sat. 1/18/14
I am really still looking for that horse that combines the type of classic pedigree I like with some powerful races. It's still early and we have got to wait and see if any of the winners so far are able to follow up with some more good races. With the point system in effect it looks like a lot of the contenders will only have a couple of preps before the Derby unless they are forced to try to garner more points to make it into the race.
This race has produced some nice winners in recent years like Hard Spun and Oxbow last year. There seems to be an abundance of colts this year that have, what has almost become a standard, pedigrees loaded with the Mr Prospector, Northern Dancer and Nasrullah sire lines. An awful lot of good horses are bred along these lines but that's to be expected since there are so many of these bred every year. This race has more than it's share of these and it's hard to say which ones are the better until they have been sorted out by racing
Gold Hawk has a different type of pedigree in that there is no real inbreeding involved. He has a lot of different sire lines in his breeding and it's hard to tell if one of these lines will dominate or if, by all the crosses, everything has been, for lack of a better term, diluted. So far, it looks like one of those great sire lines in his pedigree is going to make it's influence felt and he could be a really nice colt.
Got Shades is very nicely bred and has a couple of patterns I favor. He has shown some promise on the grass but we don't know how he will take to the dirt. I think his breeding actually points more to dirt than turf but he's been racing in the weeds simply because there were no dirt races going long available to him. If he shows a liking for dirt he could be dangerous in here.
Albano has a pedigree dominated by the Mr Prospector line but has a nice cross of the Gallant Man & Mr P lines through Pocho's Dream Girl who was brought back into the Mr P line to produce Albano. This cross is not common but so far it seems to be working. Larry Jones, who trained Hard Spun to win this race, also trains this one.
Smarty's Echo may have more stamina than his sire who many thought wouldn't get the Derby distance but we all know what happened there. I think Smarty Jones got his staying power from his dam who's sire line liked a distance and Echo isn't going to be hurt by being out of a mare of the Sword Dancer line. Of course, a few in this race may not shine until they get to the 10f distance.
Vicar's in Trouble blew them away in a state bred race with a big speed figure so will probably catch a lot of action. It looks like Rosie jumped off two other mounts to ride this one. He does have speed and may be hard to catch except that his big win is not the kind of race that impresses me. It was a state bred race and it appears he had everything his way and these type of performances usually produce big numbers. Of course, that's just my opinion.
Plug Catcher ran third to Hawk last time making a bid that he couldn't sustain. With that race under his belt and the addition of blinkers he may show a little more staying power.
This race, not having any graded winners, could be up for grabs so I can't get too sold on any particular one. Since he hasn't been beaten yet I'll stick with Gold Hawk but I think he will go off at odds on.
1- Gold Hawk
2- Got Shades
3- Albano
4- Smarty's Echo
Backstretch
FG R9 Sat. 1/18/14
I am really still looking for that horse that combines the type of classic pedigree I like with some powerful races. It's still early and we have got to wait and see if any of the winners so far are able to follow up with some more good races. With the point system in effect it looks like a lot of the contenders will only have a couple of preps before the Derby unless they are forced to try to garner more points to make it into the race.
This race has produced some nice winners in recent years like Hard Spun and Oxbow last year. There seems to be an abundance of colts this year that have, what has almost become a standard, pedigrees loaded with the Mr Prospector, Northern Dancer and Nasrullah sire lines. An awful lot of good horses are bred along these lines but that's to be expected since there are so many of these bred every year. This race has more than it's share of these and it's hard to say which ones are the better until they have been sorted out by racing
Gold Hawk has a different type of pedigree in that there is no real inbreeding involved. He has a lot of different sire lines in his breeding and it's hard to tell if one of these lines will dominate or if, by all the crosses, everything has been, for lack of a better term, diluted. So far, it looks like one of those great sire lines in his pedigree is going to make it's influence felt and he could be a really nice colt.
Got Shades is very nicely bred and has a couple of patterns I favor. He has shown some promise on the grass but we don't know how he will take to the dirt. I think his breeding actually points more to dirt than turf but he's been racing in the weeds simply because there were no dirt races going long available to him. If he shows a liking for dirt he could be dangerous in here.
Albano has a pedigree dominated by the Mr Prospector line but has a nice cross of the Gallant Man & Mr P lines through Pocho's Dream Girl who was brought back into the Mr P line to produce Albano. This cross is not common but so far it seems to be working. Larry Jones, who trained Hard Spun to win this race, also trains this one.
Smarty's Echo may have more stamina than his sire who many thought wouldn't get the Derby distance but we all know what happened there. I think Smarty Jones got his staying power from his dam who's sire line liked a distance and Echo isn't going to be hurt by being out of a mare of the Sword Dancer line. Of course, a few in this race may not shine until they get to the 10f distance.
Vicar's in Trouble blew them away in a state bred race with a big speed figure so will probably catch a lot of action. It looks like Rosie jumped off two other mounts to ride this one. He does have speed and may be hard to catch except that his big win is not the kind of race that impresses me. It was a state bred race and it appears he had everything his way and these type of performances usually produce big numbers. Of course, that's just my opinion.
Plug Catcher ran third to Hawk last time making a bid that he couldn't sustain. With that race under his belt and the addition of blinkers he may show a little more staying power.
This race, not having any graded winners, could be up for grabs so I can't get too sold on any particular one. Since he hasn't been beaten yet I'll stick with Gold Hawk but I think he will go off at odds on.
1- Gold Hawk
2- Got Shades
3- Albano
4- Smarty's Echo
Backstretch
Saturday, January 11, 2014
The Sham Stakes G3
The Sham G3
SA R5 Sat. 1/11/14
This is the Sham but I would be more inclined to call it the Shame. With all those 3 yr old horses prepared to contest the Triple Crown, the best they can do is 6 entries?
I suppose the answer lies in the fact that this race is only worth 10 Derby points so why waste your horse here when you can take a shot at a race worth 50 and almost be sure of getting into the big show. I have been in favor of the point system but when there are 18 races worth 10 points, 8 races worth 50 points and 7 worth 100, I guess the thinking is, why take a chance on the horse getting hurt or whatever for a lousy 10 points when you can take 1 shot, get lucky and your in. So, what we get is graded races for young horses with only 6 entries. I think that sucks!
As to this race, we have another graded race with all but one entry coming off a maiden win. Would you call this a bettable race? Two of the favorites have had but one race so I find it hard to get enthused about any of them.
I will say that there are a couple of nice pedigrees in here and the one I like is Kristo who has the type of breeding that's had an awful lot of success in recent years and he is my top choice. I love the Northern Dancer mares and the sire line of RAN is almost always good when coupled with these type mares. He has speed, as do most of these, but I think he will be able to carry that speed a long way.
Midnight Hawk has a kind of Heinz "57" pedigree that consists of several outstanding sire lines with little to none in the way of inbreeding. When it comes to breeding, the reason there is a lot of inbreeding done is that it makes things a little more predictable when the number of possibilities are cut down. So, Midnight Hawk may be a very good one but not knowing which horses in his pedigree will exert the most influence, I have to take a wait and see stance.
Top Fortitude is in the same category as Midnight Hawk and may also turn out to be very good but we will know more when they go up against some accomplished runners.
Ontology has a fairly nice pedigree but it remains to be seen if he can handle the dirt. He's had more races than any of them but, although showing signs, he has taken 8 races to break his maiden.
1- #1 Kristo
2- #6 Midnight Hawk
3- Top Fortitude
4- Ontology
These predictions are free but donations are welcome.
Thanks,
Backstretch
SA R5 Sat. 1/11/14
This is the Sham but I would be more inclined to call it the Shame. With all those 3 yr old horses prepared to contest the Triple Crown, the best they can do is 6 entries?
I suppose the answer lies in the fact that this race is only worth 10 Derby points so why waste your horse here when you can take a shot at a race worth 50 and almost be sure of getting into the big show. I have been in favor of the point system but when there are 18 races worth 10 points, 8 races worth 50 points and 7 worth 100, I guess the thinking is, why take a chance on the horse getting hurt or whatever for a lousy 10 points when you can take 1 shot, get lucky and your in. So, what we get is graded races for young horses with only 6 entries. I think that sucks!
As to this race, we have another graded race with all but one entry coming off a maiden win. Would you call this a bettable race? Two of the favorites have had but one race so I find it hard to get enthused about any of them.
I will say that there are a couple of nice pedigrees in here and the one I like is Kristo who has the type of breeding that's had an awful lot of success in recent years and he is my top choice. I love the Northern Dancer mares and the sire line of RAN is almost always good when coupled with these type mares. He has speed, as do most of these, but I think he will be able to carry that speed a long way.
Midnight Hawk has a kind of Heinz "57" pedigree that consists of several outstanding sire lines with little to none in the way of inbreeding. When it comes to breeding, the reason there is a lot of inbreeding done is that it makes things a little more predictable when the number of possibilities are cut down. So, Midnight Hawk may be a very good one but not knowing which horses in his pedigree will exert the most influence, I have to take a wait and see stance.
Top Fortitude is in the same category as Midnight Hawk and may also turn out to be very good but we will know more when they go up against some accomplished runners.
Ontology has a fairly nice pedigree but it remains to be seen if he can handle the dirt. He's had more races than any of them but, although showing signs, he has taken 8 races to break his maiden.
1- #1 Kristo
2- #6 Midnight Hawk
3- Top Fortitude
4- Ontology
These predictions are free but donations are welcome.
Thanks,
Backstretch
Saturday, January 4, 2014
The Jerome Sat. 1/4/14
The Jerome-G2 Sat. 1/4/14
I've been a little slow getting started with the 3yr old horses this year. This is the first graded race this year on the TC trail and I will try to follow up on most of the graded stakes on this years trail.
As of the moment I'm not high on anything for the simple reason that I haven't invested much time with them so far. I plan on looking at them on a race by race basis and will handicap them mostly by pedigree but we also have got to see some performance because no matter how good the breeding they still must live up to their potential.
There are only a couple in this race that I feel are bred for the classics and I'm not too impressed by these. There are quite a few on the trail with a lot nicer credentials.
Scotland, although still a maiden, looks to me to have the most potential over a distance of ground. This race is just over a mile so it doesn't take a classic pedigree to get this distance but these are the ones I will keep my eye on as the distances get longer. This one has a couple of Northern Dancer mares in key positions in his pedigree that tell me he will be able to stretch out and handle the classic distances.
Lawmaker is the type that can be very good up to 9f but they usually can't get the derby distance. He may have some success along the way but I don't consider him as a contender for Derby honors.
Classic Giacnroll is very nicely bred and has a couple of crosses that say he should really love much longer distances. He's had some success in sprints already but he runs well off the pace and was probably a bit classier than those he's beat so far. I think as he meets better company he will be a stone closer and that usually hurts a horses chances against quality speed.
Noble Moon is a contender in here but his pedigree doesn't impress me but, as I've said, they don't need much breeding to get this distance.
Master Lightning has a so-so pedigree and has tried graded company twice and didn't get close. In relation to most of Pletcher's horses, this one was pretty cheap at the sales and I think he may not be ready for graded company yet.
1- #2 Scotland
2- #3 Lawmaker
3- #7 Classic Giacnroll
4- #1 Noble Moon
In the past I had been charging for my weekly newsletter but this year my Triple Crown picks will be free but any donations will be greatly appreciated.
Thanks and good luck,
Backstretch
I've been a little slow getting started with the 3yr old horses this year. This is the first graded race this year on the TC trail and I will try to follow up on most of the graded stakes on this years trail.
As of the moment I'm not high on anything for the simple reason that I haven't invested much time with them so far. I plan on looking at them on a race by race basis and will handicap them mostly by pedigree but we also have got to see some performance because no matter how good the breeding they still must live up to their potential.
There are only a couple in this race that I feel are bred for the classics and I'm not too impressed by these. There are quite a few on the trail with a lot nicer credentials.
Scotland, although still a maiden, looks to me to have the most potential over a distance of ground. This race is just over a mile so it doesn't take a classic pedigree to get this distance but these are the ones I will keep my eye on as the distances get longer. This one has a couple of Northern Dancer mares in key positions in his pedigree that tell me he will be able to stretch out and handle the classic distances.
Lawmaker is the type that can be very good up to 9f but they usually can't get the derby distance. He may have some success along the way but I don't consider him as a contender for Derby honors.
Classic Giacnroll is very nicely bred and has a couple of crosses that say he should really love much longer distances. He's had some success in sprints already but he runs well off the pace and was probably a bit classier than those he's beat so far. I think as he meets better company he will be a stone closer and that usually hurts a horses chances against quality speed.
Noble Moon is a contender in here but his pedigree doesn't impress me but, as I've said, they don't need much breeding to get this distance.
Master Lightning has a so-so pedigree and has tried graded company twice and didn't get close. In relation to most of Pletcher's horses, this one was pretty cheap at the sales and I think he may not be ready for graded company yet.
1- #2 Scotland
2- #3 Lawmaker
3- #7 Classic Giacnroll
4- #1 Noble Moon
In the past I had been charging for my weekly newsletter but this year my Triple Crown picks will be free but any donations will be greatly appreciated.
Thanks and good luck,
Backstretch
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)