Newsletter # 12 Recap

Newsletter # 12  Sat. 3/24/12


Turfway  R10  3/24/12  The Spiral


Is it possible to see a repeat of last year when Animal Kingdom won this and then the derby? I don't think so because in my opinion there is a dearth of nice horses this year compared to last.

I suppose we have got to wonder how some of these will take to the poly because that's always an unknown. I've only got three horses in here that fit my derby profile but a couple of them look very good.

I have Heavy Breathing who I'm going to make my choice for this. Has had 2 races and won both with the last being at this distance. I think he's bred to run all day and has good tactical speed so JJ should be able to put him wherever he likes.

Handsome Mike is a really well bred horse who has been running well but getting beat by being on a fast pace. I think with the switch to Joel they will try to rate him a little. If it weren't for that bad outside post I would probably pick him to win but I think he's going to get used hard to get a striking position unless he goes for the lead again which could be even more trouble.

I'm not crazy about Went The Day Well but Motion won this last year with Animal and looks to have this one coming up to a good race.

I'll round it out with Holiday Promise who has a lot of the same lines as Heavy Breathing. Has shown promise but this is first try against this kind of company. I think he's sitting on a big race and would not be surprised to see Pletcher take both top spots.

1- Heavy Breathing

2- Handsome Mike

3- Went The Day Well

4- Holiday Promise.




Sunland Derby  R12  Sun. 3/25/12

There are only three horses in here that have my derby profile and 2 of them just broke their maiden. Isn't He Clever has a very nice pedigree and he has lots of experience. One thing I have noticed is that almost all the preps so far have been won by horses with experience. This guy has won 4 of 6 and was off the board only once and that was against some good ones, especially I'll Have Another, who ran a super good race. Incidently, I think that's the only prep race that a long shot won and he was one of my pedigree horses. If you recall, I had that big exacta in my picks that day.

Ender Knievel and Stirred Up both have nice breeding and fit my derby profile. I like the way Ender blew the field away in his last start but I think the pace was a little slow in that race and he was never challenged.

Stirred Up looks like he is just coming into his own after running a good race against Bodemeister who barely got beat by Creative Cause.

I know there are those that will think I'm crazy for dismissing Castaway but that's just what I'm going to do. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think he will get beat here. He won the Southwest on the pace but the fractions were on the slow side. I also don't think there was anything in there to beat. A very mediocre field in my opinion.

I feel that Ender is going to be on the motor and the pace will be pretty quick so I feel that someone coming off the pace will take this one. I think Daddy Nose Best has a good shot if he doesn't fall too far off the pace. He beat a couple nice ones in his last but benefited from a super good ride by Julian. I also don't know how he will take to dirt, but of course, he may love it.

I'm really going to go out on a limb and stick with the pedigrees. After all, we did get that 44/1 shot strictly off the pedigree.

1- Isn't He Clever

2- Stirred Up

3- Ender Knievel

4- Daddy Nose Best

Good Luck,
Backstretch

RECAP

I was a little surprised that Heavy Breathing backed out of it but other than that the others ran well. I thought Mr. Motion had Went The Day Well ready for a big one and he sure did. He really knows how to get them ready this time of year.

I wasn't surprised by the effort of Holiday Promise because I think he is a very well bred colt and probably has a bright future in store.

Handsome Mike is a really nice colt and just can't seem to catch a good trip. He has a lot of speed but has gotten caught up in speed duels in the past and I thought the jockey switch, although I think Nakatani is a very good jock, might get him to rate a little. I was afraid the post would hurt him and he got off to a bad start anyway. Mike is a much better horse than his finishes have shown and sooner or later he's going to pop that big one.

Down at Sunland the hardest decision I had to make was dismissing Castaway. I don't care for his pedigree for the classics and though he may be a nice horse, I don't see him as a G1 colt.

As I thought it would, a speed duel ensued and set it up for the closer. I do feel that Isn't He Clever was used a little hard early and stayed a little close to that quick pace getting the lead in a fast 3/4. His connections have said they may try something like the Bluegrass if he ran a good race so maybe we haven't seen the last of him..

The race set up perfect for Daddy and he got another great ride from Julian. He has a nice style for the Derby and will probably be a major threat there.

I have been criticized by some who say I claim having the winner of these preps when I give 4 horses. That may be true to an extent because sometimes my top pick wins and other times it's one of the others that win.

I think that those who get down on me are missing the point, which is, to place a winning bet. In these type races it really doesn't matter if the winner is pinpointed or not because most players are going for the exotics, at least I know my clients are, and they are the ones I've got to keep happy.

Just by sticking with my pedigree likes I've had a 44/1 winner on top of my first choice, my first choice on top of another 44/1 shot several nice trifectas in addition to the exactas and in the Spiral all 4 of my picks were in the money making for a really nice super.

Seems like I'm able to get those long shots in there just by using their pedigrees although I have also been told I don't know anything about breeding.

So as a few friends, who are good handicappers, always say; the object is to make winning and profitable plays, don't worry about which horse actually wins, because whether you win or not is the only thing that counts. I certainly hope you won this week.
PS...If interested in subscribing to my low cost newsletter please send e mail.

A Tribute To My Internet Friends

A Tribute To My Internet Friends

Yesterday I turned 79 years of age. So far I've had a long and eventful life and done most of the things I've wanted to do. I've traveled a lot and rubbed shoulders with everyone from billionaires to mobsters.

Almost all my old friends are gone now but thanks to the internet I've made some great new ones. I also want to say that I have met some of the nastiest people alive on the internet although I can't believe they could be so rotten in real life. It makes me think that the internet is something like alcohol in that some people are just plain obnoxious drunks and others aren't.

Having said that, I just want to express my appreciation to the people I have met on the net and in particular a couple of guys that are just plain super stand-up guys.

As most of you know I have a little handicapping service and two of these friends are also clients and are wonderful to deal with. They always inquire about my health, which isn't too good these days, and seem to have great faith in my judgement.

One of these friends has been with me for 7-8 yrs now and never goes to the track without my selections for the day. The other is not only a bettor but an owner as well and will buy a horse just on my say so. I can't tell you how good it makes one feel to have someone put their trust in you in a game like horse racing.

They not only reward me with their trust but always take care of me financially. They never bitch or moan when they lose and never lie or short change me in any way. As I said; two really outstanding and stand-up guys who are both successful business men but are quite humble and never arrogant or demeaning. I feel very greatful to have met them and one wish I would have would be to spend some time at the track with all of us together. In my book they are two outstanding individuals who have helped restore my faith in people and I place the highest value possible on their friendship.

There are others I've met online and talk with on the phone and we spend hours talking horses and I also thank them for their friendship and help in keeping my interest alive, otherwise, I would be like many who are retired and become bored and lonely and soon wilt away.

So again, thanks to all my internet friends and I hope we are able to spend many more rewarding years together.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 10 Recap

Newsletter #10  Sat. 3/10/12

GP  R10  3/10/12  The Swale

This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.

J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.

This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.

If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.

There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.

1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?

2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.

3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.

4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance

Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.

Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous

I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.


TAM  R11  3/10/12  Tampa Bay Derby

This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.

I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.

Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.

I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.

1- Spring Hill Farm

2- Prospective

3- Battle Hardened

4- Cozzetti

SA  R9  3/10/12  The San Felipe

I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.

Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.

I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.

I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.

Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.

1- Bodemeister

2- Tiz Point

3- Creative Cause

4- Empire Way

5- Liaison

RECAP:

Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.

Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.

We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.

We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!

I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.

Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.

Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!

Backstretch

Gotham Recap

Gotham Recap

I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.

I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.

There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.

Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.

Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.

Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.

Good Luck,
Backstretch