The Spiral 3/22/14

Spiral G3

Turfway PK  R11  3/22/14

The Cash Call Fut. run at HOL back in Dec. didn't carry any Derby points but it was a G1 race with a full field of nice colts. Shared Belief, by virtue of his victory, jumped to the top of most handicappers list of derby contenders. But Shared Belief is among several leading contenders to become sidelined along the way due to set backs of one kind or another.

The reason I mention this race is that Candy Boy, who ran second, came back to win the Lewis and Tamarando, who finished third bounced back to take the El Camino which makes the CC a probable key race. Since the field for the Derby looks kind of wide open at this point I am going to assume that any that were close to Shared Belief are pretty nice horses.

Tamarando has a super nice pedigree and looks like he can get any distance. His worse race is a 4th in his first start which was a short sprint but he hasn't been off the board since. He has a terrific closing kick and is really fun to watch. He comes into this race off a win in the El Camino where he was ridden for the first time by R. Baze with a furious charge down the stretch. Personally, I would love to see Baze in the Derby on a contender.

There is some speed in here and I think Almost Famous has most of it. he had a bad start in his last so I'm throwing that race out. He has a lovely pedigree but the question is how he will take to the poly track. If he likes the track he may carry his speed a long way.

Solitary Ranger has sort of an unusual pedigree with a few older past champions close up in his breeding. He has speed and has wired the field in his last two. He likes the synthetic track and may be the one to beat.

We Miss Artie from the Pletcher barn likes the synth. track and is a useful sort and, although his breeding is nice, I think he will have a problem with the longer distances but this type can sometimes get 1 1/8.

1- #4 Tamarando
2- #9 Almost Famous
3- #8  Solitary Ranger
4- #11 We Miss Artie
Long Shot- #6 Smart Cover

Backstretch

Rebel Stakes G2 Sat. 3/15/14

The Rebel-G2

OP  R10 Sat. 3/15/14

This looks to be a decent field of well bred youngsters. It seems like every week there is a newcomer popping up with a terrific race while a lot of the early top contenders are ending up on the disabled list. Who knows, we might have another top performance by one of these.

I have liked the pedigree of Strong Mandate since day one but he's a lousy trips in his last two. In the BC he had a far outside post and was hard used early but hung in very well. In the Southwest he got a bad break and then encountered a lot of traffic while trying to make his move. He couldn't catch the leader who had a perfect trip but being that he does have a lot of speed he may get the perfect stalking trip today.

Tapiture is a nicely bred colt and always seems to fire. If he goes for the front it may boil down to a duel with Strong Mandate and I don't think either wants the other to get loose in front.

Street Strategy is a really nice colt with great bloodlines who just broke his maiden in fine style. Bred to go a distance, he may upset this field being that he looks to be in a position to improve some more.

Kobe's Back just blew away the field in a G2 sprint but I'm not too sure he's going to be that good around 2 turns.

Hoppertunity is another in the Baffert stable to try and win the Rebel. Baffert has had huge success in these Oaklawn stakes and can never be underestimated although I don't like where this one is at in his form cycle. Nice breeding and Mike Smith is in for the ride.

1- #4 Strong Mandate
2- #3 Tapiture
3- #7 Street Strategy
4- #8 Kobe's Back

The Gotham- G3 3/1/14

The Gotham  G3

AQU  R9  3/1/14

This is a 50 point race but I doubt very much if the KY Derby winner will be found in this field. At Gulfstream Park today there are 3 or 4 races for 3 yr olds and I feel like there are probably a few of them that would take the measure of this field yet most of them are running in allowance races. In addition, most of the first string jocks have elected to stay in FL.

This race is featuring an undefeated horse who has won all four of his starts. He may be as good as his connections think but I have serious doubts about him. He's a NY bred that has beat up on state breds in his first 3 races. In his last he did win the Withers which is a G3 race but I thought it was nothing more than a low grade alw. race. It was all Samraat could do to beat Uncle Sigh, another state bred. This is not to say a NY bred can't be good but I want to see him defeat open company before I jump on his band wagon.

Samraat has a nice pedigree but of the type that my experience tells me he can't get the longer distances. This is only a shade over a mile so is well within his scope but I'm going to buck him, especially at the short odds he will go off at. I will probably use him on top of some exotics as a saver in case I'm totally wrong about him.

Uncle Sigh is inbred to Northern Dancer so I can't fault him much and he did give a good battle to Samraat in his last but I think he is also suspect because of the quality of the Withers.

In Trouble has a lot of different crosses in his pedigree but they all speak of distance ability. He's won both of his sprint starts and his last was very speedy in a G2 race at BEL. Has a good post and inside speed is dangerous at this track. I don't think he will go for the lead but should be in striking distance of the leaders.

Harpoon has a pedigree I really like and should be able to get a classic distance. He went for a half mil at the sales so I assume he is quite handsome. He lost the Sam Davis by a nose in his last and I would have him on top here except for his outside post.

Extrasexyhippzster is another with very nice breeding that should like a distance. Has enough speed to get into the hunt early but will rate. Should have good position just off the pace and may have a nice closing kick.

Financial Mogul is a strong late runner that was in pretty deep last time and looked to be a little short. He will be looking to pick up the pieces if his stablemate falters in the lane.

1- #2  In Trouble
2- #10 Harpoon
3- #8  Extrasexyhippzster
4- #3  Financial Mogul