Thursday, April 26, 2012
Newsletter # 16 Recap
Newsletter # 16- Sat. 4/21/12
Well, it looks like this Triple Crown Trail is winding down and I'm glad because I'm starting to suffer from horse fatigue. There are two races this weekend which probably won't have any effect on the Derby as there are only a couple that, if they should win, will still have to hope for some defections to make the field.
But just because these races may not have an effect on the Derby, don't discount all of these horses down the road. The Preakness and Belmont may see a couple in the field. Last year I was rooting all year for Uptowncharlybrown who ran into some problems but was a fast closing 3rd in the Lexington and went to the Belmont where he ran big but was DQd because of losing his weights. Some of these got off to a late start but may be coming around in time for some of the other big races.
KEE R9 Sat. 4/21/12 The Lexington
There's only a couple in here that have pedigrees that suit my taste. There are a couple that are very difficult to read and we have a few horses that like the turf which normally says they will like the poly.
I really think this is a difficult race to handicap because a case can be made for so many of them but even the best ones are very erratic.
I like the pedigree of Holiday Promise who ran a bang up race in his first try at graded company. It looked like he was going to win it but couldn't hold off Went The Day Well who looks like a nice one. He always seems to run his race and I feel like he really likes the poly.
Skyring has very nice breeding and got off to a bum start in his last in the Ill.Derby but was full of run and got checked again in the stretch. Gets a big jock change here and Lukas is due for a hit.
Morgan' Guerrilla came up as the live horse in that ILL Derby and wanted the lead but was compromised by his outside post. There's not much speed in this race and I expect 3 horses to be up front early. The one just mentioned along with Castaway and Johannesbourbon.
Castaway quit badly last time and I don't think he can handle a fast pace. When he won the Southwest they were just loping along. They may make him the chalk but, as I did last time, I'm chucking him right out.
The other speed Johana. has only had one race and blew them away at TP on the poly. He's got a sprinters pedigree so may not last the distance.
Gold Megillah ran a nice race last out against Flashy Dresser in the Rushaway and was just beaten by Gung Ho who came back to run a big race in the Bluegrass last week. Motion does real good at these tracks and it looks like JR is getting a lot of his horses to ride after Animal Kingdom last year.
News Pending ran 2nd to Union Rags in his next to last but got a bum start in the FL Derby. No closer was going to win that race anyway so that race is a toss for me. He gets KD back and Romans has his horses ready, as with Dullahan last week.
So, who to pick? As I said, a case can be made for most of them in which case I go for the long shots. I'm going to go with News pending because of his good try against Rags and he does have enough speed to get into contention. Also, horses that run good on GP turf seem to do good on poly. One drawback is the post position but maybe KD can work a trip. Oh, he did have a work Thur. at KEE.
1- News Pending
2- Holiday Promise
3- Gold Megillah
4- Skyring
Recap:
This was a strange race, aside from it being won by a 70/1 shot, with the speed horses no where to be found at the end. Castaway dueled for a bit with a sprinter but soon packed it in as he did in the Sunland. I felt he has just gotten lucky in the SW at Oaklawn by running on such a slow pace in a slow race. He had also told me something about those OP races which I will go into at another time.
I didn't understand News Pending's race. He has shown in the past that he has enough speed to get into the race but he lost touch with the field early on. He then made a long run up the backstretch to reach contention and then just stopped. All in all, a very disappointing race in which the winner happened to be in the right spot at the right time although the trainer switch to Ward must have had something to do with it. I'm just crossing this race off as one of those where the contenders didn't want to run that day and forget about it.
AQU. R9 4/21/12 The Jerome
The weather may play a big part in this one as rain and a sloppy track is very possible. I would think it would favor speed if the track comes up sloppy, and there's
plenty of speed in here, but it's only guessing when it comes to the weather.
Pedigrees don't really mean that much in a mile race but there are a few in here that I like their bloodlines.
Brigand, Stirred up, Dan And Sheila and Adirondack King all have nice pedigrees but as I said, I don't know as that will carry much weight. Those 4 and Lumber Guy are the only ones that have tried graded company and none had much success.
I'm going to go with Adirondack King because he had a nice race at the distance in the Southwest against Secret Circle and was up against it in the Rebel with that far outside post. With this small field he may find some running room and naturally I'm shooting for a long one.
Baffert has 2 in here and I suppose they feel Stirred Up is the better of the 2 but I think Brigand is sitting on a big race. He has good speed and way back in July chased a very fast Majestic City and also went up against Creative Cause and I'll Have Another. He was given 6 months off just like I'll Have Another and we know how well he has done. He has 2 very fast works recently and gets a good boy up. I think he is probably the one to beat in here.
The Lumber Guy took them a long way in the Wood but I think that was basically a 2 horse race and he really faded in the stretch.
Stirred Up was a distant third in the Sun Derby which was another weak field aside from the top two. Garcia does make the trip to ride so that must mean something.
Right To Vote likes this distance and had a nice race against Union Rags way back in Oct. and was given some time off and came back with a win and could be a factor in here.
Term Loan is another that prefers the mile and ran a big number last out but I don't care for horses that run real big in first off a layoff.
Dan And Sheila closed a ton against Mr Bowling but that was kind of a slow race and none from that race have done well. Went in the Gotham and was only slightly involved early and aside from Hansen the others haven't done a thing since.
1- Adirondack king
2- Brigand
3- The Lumber Guy
4- Stirred Up
Long shot- Right To Vote
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Recap:
I had had my suspicions about those races at OP and this was another that helped confirm them. I had thought I might get some big odds on Adirondack Kingbut he only went off at 4/1. He is just another that ran a good one at OP but failed to duplicate it elsewhere.
Brigand looked like he was sitting on a big race, which he was, but was no match for The Lumber Guy. Baffert had his horses ready to run but after seeing TLG put Brigand away easily I'm inclined to think that Gem and Alpha in the Wood really ran a big race.
I'm not into speed figures when handicapping these 3 yr old races but look more to who has beaten who. I have made up my mind that those races at OP were not very good at all. Secret Circle had taken 2 of them in which he didn't beat much and Castaway took one in which he beat nothing at all. In the ARK Derby Secret Circle was the only competition for Bodemeister, if one might call it competition, so I'm of a mind to think that Bode's race is being way over rated. Of course everyone is raving about his Beyers number, but aside from the fact that I put no stock whatsoever in Beyers numbers, I know that very often horses that go unchallenged on the lead can put up some fantastic figures but seldom run back to them in a race with good competition. That's just my opinion.
Backstretch
Monday, April 16, 2012
Newsletter # 15 Recap
Newsletter # 15 Sat. 4/14/12
I hate to bore some of you but I have some new subscribers to the newsletter that are not familiar with my pedigree handicapping.
I often pass up the form horses or favorites if they don't meet my pedigree standards for the classic distances. Needless to say, not all derby winners have the common denominator's that I look for in a pedigree, just a good percentage of them.
Another point is that I get a lot of long shot winners in the prep races as most of you know. The reason I'm repeating this is there may be some who might say I'm a bit whacky when I give my selections. It's quite obvious that you wouldn't need me if I were giving you the horses that everyone else picks. I believe that with the long ones I've picked already this year a lot of my followers have made enough to last the rest of the year.
Now to the horses; this is an amazing year compared to past years. There are really an awful lot of horses this year that are bred for the classics. Naturally, some must be better than others but I try my best to determine which ones have the most potential. A lot of horses don't run to their potential and a few who manage to outrun their pedigrees. There are also horses with a Heinz "57" pedigree which makes it nearly impossible to figure how they will turn out. On occasion a good one will turn up but for the most part they are rarely classic material.
It's been interesting watching how the horses are responding to the training methods now being employed by many trainers. A lot of them, especially Pletcher, have been going to the 2 preps before the Derby. A lot of these young colts have gotten a late start for one reason or another which may be attributed to design or injury or being late foals. Most of the early preps were won by horses with experience and these late starters have their work cut out in order to jump right to these longer distances without working up to them. There are some very promising colts that have only had a couple of races lifetime but there may be one or two that are very good and some surprises may occur.
KEE Sat. 4/14/12 R11 Bluegrass Stakes G1
This may surprise you but I am dismissing Hansen in this race for several reasons. Number 1 is that his pedigree doesn't meet my standards for the derby distance. I've mentioned in the past that his type pedigree can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and sometimes to 1 1/8 but rarely beyond that.
Reason # 2 is that I don't think he has beaten any very good horses beside Union Rags and I'm not sure Rags is all he's made out to be. He had those 2 big races at TP where he beat two fields of very mediocre horses. I know he won the Breeders Cup but that was kind of an unusual day and he happened to be very sharp that day.
Reason #3 is that in his last 2 races My Adonis was close to him and MA was badly beaten in the Wood. In the Gotham Hansen had a perfect stalking trip and the 3rd horse Finnegans Wake didn't run a lick in his next race.
In addition to meeting what is probably the best field he's faced he has to get an extra 1/16 of a mile. Unless he gets the easiest kind of trip I don't think he will win this.
I'm sticking with my pedigree horses and maybe I will score again. There are 6 of them in here but I will go with the ones that look best to me.
I'm going with Dullahan to win this. His pedigree suits me and he won the Breeders Fut. over this track. He ran 4th in the BC after having trouble at the start and was really running at the end. He had a very nice tune up on the grass in his last and even if he doesn't win this he will be coming up to the derby right on edge.
I also like Prospective who is 2 for 2 on poly and usually brings his A game with him. Aside from the BC he's never been worse than second. Has a real nice pedigree and could take it all.
Heavy Breathing has a classic pedigree and I'm not giving up on him yet. He battled for the lead at this distance in the Spiral and hung in pretty good and was beaten by a very nice colt. He doesn't need the lead and with the speed in here could get a ground saving stalking trip from the rail.
I haven't really figured out the pedigree of Howe Great except that he sure looks to be bred for the grass. He has run good on dirt so may just be a handy one. Four wins in a row is mighty hard to overlook and he beat a pretty good one in Lucky Chappy. I just have the feeling that speed won't hold up in this race and that's why I'm going the way I am.
Ever So Lucky has run into a couple good ones but I can't really figure where he fits in here. He's a nice horse that sold for over a 1/2 mil but to me he has kind of a mixed up pedigree. He must be a really good looking animal to bring that much money.
As I handicapped this race it came to me that this is the best field by far this year. A case can be made for almost any one of them. Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner and Politicallycorrect all have classic type breeding so I think that if your playing exotics you had better go deep. Of course, I could be dead wrong about Hansen and he may blow them away but he's not getting my money at 6/5. You might want to use him in the exotics or make a saver with him on top.
1- Dullahan
2- Prospective
3- Heavy Breathing
4- Howe Great
Longshots: Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner
Bluegrass Recap
I was wrong in that I didn't think Hansen would hold on enough to get second. He had no excuse as far as I could see. All alone on the lead with no pressure but ran out of pedigree in the stretch. I think he might be a very good miler but he's not derby material in my book.
I have liked Dullahan all year and if you go to my blog of 10/14/11, Mine That Bird, A Fluke?, I gave some reasons why I liked Dullahan way back then. Ran great today after a very slow start as in the Breeders Cup, and came a long way to win this. I think he's now set up perfectly for the derby but I wish they would give him some gate work because those slow starts are going to cost him down the road.
There are a lot of closers going in the Derby but I don't see any that can sustain a drive as far as Dullahan can. After that long drive to get into contention he switched leads halfway down the stretch and really got into another gear and was going away at the end.
OP R11 4/14/12 Arkansas Derby
I guess Baffert is intent on nailing this one too. He's won with 10 of his last 13 starters here so you know his horses will be tough. I think what's making it so hard to get away from the early derby choices is that everybody is dodging. A lot of horses that look really good haven't beaten anything to speak of. There's been so many preps with only a couple of contenders but this week the races look pretty deep. Everybody has been trying to find the softest spot possible in order to get some graded earnings but it's down to the nitty gritty and a lot of the hopefuls will fall by the wayside.
There are 6 in here with classic breeding but a few look better than the others based on what the've done so far. I guess Baffert's 2 will be the top 2 choices but I'm going to buck them. You know always go for the price horses.
I think Pletcher has a sleeper in here in Stat except he should have had another prep against some good ones. He did run second to Rags at the Spa but was then laid off for 6 months. I don't know what had happened to him. His last prep was good so I'm going to give him a shot here because I love his pedigree.
Bodemeister ran into a tough one in his first try against graded company but looked really good getting second. Really nice breeding and looks like he will be a good one. He needs to get at least second to make the derby.
Secret Circle is the other Baffert horse and he's already made the derby. This is a nice horse but has beaten some awfully soft fields, especially the BC wher it was a terrible field and he was almos caught by a foreign filly. The 2 races here at OP were also lacking in quality so I think he could be a little overrated. Baffert had said all year that he didn't know if he could go a distance but is going to try untill the horse tells him he's gone far enough.
I'm not crazy about the pedigree of Isn't He Clever but he's a hard hitter. Made kind of a premature move in his last and was caught late by Daddy Nose Best who had beat 2 nice ones at GG so I'm giving him a little play in here.
Cozzetti, Najjaar and Sabercat also have nice breeding. Cozzetti had a decent race last time in the Tampa Derby which didn't have much besides the winner and that Spring horse that broke down. Sabercat beat nothing in the Delta Jackpot as far as I could see. Najjaar is a deep closer that could get a piece with Calvin aboard.
1- Stat
2- Bodemeister
3- Secret Circle
4- Isn't He Clever
Long shot- Najjaar
Backstretch
ARK Derby Recap
Bodemeister, or is it BodeMONSTER?, demolished them and all the talk I see is about the big Beyers he ran. I like this horse and his pedigree but I have some questions when it comes to the derby. Firstly, in this race there wasn't much to beat beside his stablemate and you all know I'm not a fan of speed figures. Horses that get a clear lead and aren't challenged usually run a big figure. In fact, I see horses do this all the time and get the highest number they ever ran. I'm not saying Bode's race was a fluke but I'm not getting overly excited about it.
I will say that in this race Stat, who I feel is a very good horse but not seasoned at all, tried to track Bode and couldn't stay with hiim. Secret Circle was also trying to stay up there but Raffy wisely took him back a little and he was able to hold off the rest of the field.
How Bode fares in the derby will depend on what speed horses are entered, I guess Trinniberg is headed for the Preakness, and how they decide to position themselves. At any rate, I think the derby will have a fast contentious pace unless Bode becomes another War Emblem.
There may be some last minute defections and Mark Valeski and Reveron could get in which would change the complexion of the race.
The problem I have is that I pedigree handicap and I think over half the field has what I consider a classic type pedigree. This is very unusual because the most I've seen has been about 6 and last year there were only a few. I said it way back and it still stands; this is the best crop overall I think I've ever seen. Should be a terrific derby.
Backstretch
I hate to bore some of you but I have some new subscribers to the newsletter that are not familiar with my pedigree handicapping.
I often pass up the form horses or favorites if they don't meet my pedigree standards for the classic distances. Needless to say, not all derby winners have the common denominator's that I look for in a pedigree, just a good percentage of them.
Another point is that I get a lot of long shot winners in the prep races as most of you know. The reason I'm repeating this is there may be some who might say I'm a bit whacky when I give my selections. It's quite obvious that you wouldn't need me if I were giving you the horses that everyone else picks. I believe that with the long ones I've picked already this year a lot of my followers have made enough to last the rest of the year.
Now to the horses; this is an amazing year compared to past years. There are really an awful lot of horses this year that are bred for the classics. Naturally, some must be better than others but I try my best to determine which ones have the most potential. A lot of horses don't run to their potential and a few who manage to outrun their pedigrees. There are also horses with a Heinz "57" pedigree which makes it nearly impossible to figure how they will turn out. On occasion a good one will turn up but for the most part they are rarely classic material.
It's been interesting watching how the horses are responding to the training methods now being employed by many trainers. A lot of them, especially Pletcher, have been going to the 2 preps before the Derby. A lot of these young colts have gotten a late start for one reason or another which may be attributed to design or injury or being late foals. Most of the early preps were won by horses with experience and these late starters have their work cut out in order to jump right to these longer distances without working up to them. There are some very promising colts that have only had a couple of races lifetime but there may be one or two that are very good and some surprises may occur.
KEE Sat. 4/14/12 R11 Bluegrass Stakes G1
This may surprise you but I am dismissing Hansen in this race for several reasons. Number 1 is that his pedigree doesn't meet my standards for the derby distance. I've mentioned in the past that his type pedigree can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and sometimes to 1 1/8 but rarely beyond that.
Reason # 2 is that I don't think he has beaten any very good horses beside Union Rags and I'm not sure Rags is all he's made out to be. He had those 2 big races at TP where he beat two fields of very mediocre horses. I know he won the Breeders Cup but that was kind of an unusual day and he happened to be very sharp that day.
Reason #3 is that in his last 2 races My Adonis was close to him and MA was badly beaten in the Wood. In the Gotham Hansen had a perfect stalking trip and the 3rd horse Finnegans Wake didn't run a lick in his next race.
In addition to meeting what is probably the best field he's faced he has to get an extra 1/16 of a mile. Unless he gets the easiest kind of trip I don't think he will win this.
I'm sticking with my pedigree horses and maybe I will score again. There are 6 of them in here but I will go with the ones that look best to me.
I'm going with Dullahan to win this. His pedigree suits me and he won the Breeders Fut. over this track. He ran 4th in the BC after having trouble at the start and was really running at the end. He had a very nice tune up on the grass in his last and even if he doesn't win this he will be coming up to the derby right on edge.
I also like Prospective who is 2 for 2 on poly and usually brings his A game with him. Aside from the BC he's never been worse than second. Has a real nice pedigree and could take it all.
Heavy Breathing has a classic pedigree and I'm not giving up on him yet. He battled for the lead at this distance in the Spiral and hung in pretty good and was beaten by a very nice colt. He doesn't need the lead and with the speed in here could get a ground saving stalking trip from the rail.
I haven't really figured out the pedigree of Howe Great except that he sure looks to be bred for the grass. He has run good on dirt so may just be a handy one. Four wins in a row is mighty hard to overlook and he beat a pretty good one in Lucky Chappy. I just have the feeling that speed won't hold up in this race and that's why I'm going the way I am.
Ever So Lucky has run into a couple good ones but I can't really figure where he fits in here. He's a nice horse that sold for over a 1/2 mil but to me he has kind of a mixed up pedigree. He must be a really good looking animal to bring that much money.
As I handicapped this race it came to me that this is the best field by far this year. A case can be made for almost any one of them. Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner and Politicallycorrect all have classic type breeding so I think that if your playing exotics you had better go deep. Of course, I could be dead wrong about Hansen and he may blow them away but he's not getting my money at 6/5. You might want to use him in the exotics or make a saver with him on top.
1- Dullahan
2- Prospective
3- Heavy Breathing
4- Howe Great
Longshots: Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner
Bluegrass Recap
I was wrong in that I didn't think Hansen would hold on enough to get second. He had no excuse as far as I could see. All alone on the lead with no pressure but ran out of pedigree in the stretch. I think he might be a very good miler but he's not derby material in my book.
I have liked Dullahan all year and if you go to my blog of 10/14/11, Mine That Bird, A Fluke?, I gave some reasons why I liked Dullahan way back then. Ran great today after a very slow start as in the Breeders Cup, and came a long way to win this. I think he's now set up perfectly for the derby but I wish they would give him some gate work because those slow starts are going to cost him down the road.
There are a lot of closers going in the Derby but I don't see any that can sustain a drive as far as Dullahan can. After that long drive to get into contention he switched leads halfway down the stretch and really got into another gear and was going away at the end.
OP R11 4/14/12 Arkansas Derby
I guess Baffert is intent on nailing this one too. He's won with 10 of his last 13 starters here so you know his horses will be tough. I think what's making it so hard to get away from the early derby choices is that everybody is dodging. A lot of horses that look really good haven't beaten anything to speak of. There's been so many preps with only a couple of contenders but this week the races look pretty deep. Everybody has been trying to find the softest spot possible in order to get some graded earnings but it's down to the nitty gritty and a lot of the hopefuls will fall by the wayside.
There are 6 in here with classic breeding but a few look better than the others based on what the've done so far. I guess Baffert's 2 will be the top 2 choices but I'm going to buck them. You know always go for the price horses.
I think Pletcher has a sleeper in here in Stat except he should have had another prep against some good ones. He did run second to Rags at the Spa but was then laid off for 6 months. I don't know what had happened to him. His last prep was good so I'm going to give him a shot here because I love his pedigree.
Bodemeister ran into a tough one in his first try against graded company but looked really good getting second. Really nice breeding and looks like he will be a good one. He needs to get at least second to make the derby.
Secret Circle is the other Baffert horse and he's already made the derby. This is a nice horse but has beaten some awfully soft fields, especially the BC wher it was a terrible field and he was almos caught by a foreign filly. The 2 races here at OP were also lacking in quality so I think he could be a little overrated. Baffert had said all year that he didn't know if he could go a distance but is going to try untill the horse tells him he's gone far enough.
I'm not crazy about the pedigree of Isn't He Clever but he's a hard hitter. Made kind of a premature move in his last and was caught late by Daddy Nose Best who had beat 2 nice ones at GG so I'm giving him a little play in here.
Cozzetti, Najjaar and Sabercat also have nice breeding. Cozzetti had a decent race last time in the Tampa Derby which didn't have much besides the winner and that Spring horse that broke down. Sabercat beat nothing in the Delta Jackpot as far as I could see. Najjaar is a deep closer that could get a piece with Calvin aboard.
1- Stat
2- Bodemeister
3- Secret Circle
4- Isn't He Clever
Long shot- Najjaar
Backstretch
ARK Derby Recap
Bodemeister, or is it BodeMONSTER?, demolished them and all the talk I see is about the big Beyers he ran. I like this horse and his pedigree but I have some questions when it comes to the derby. Firstly, in this race there wasn't much to beat beside his stablemate and you all know I'm not a fan of speed figures. Horses that get a clear lead and aren't challenged usually run a big figure. In fact, I see horses do this all the time and get the highest number they ever ran. I'm not saying Bode's race was a fluke but I'm not getting overly excited about it.
I will say that in this race Stat, who I feel is a very good horse but not seasoned at all, tried to track Bode and couldn't stay with hiim. Secret Circle was also trying to stay up there but Raffy wisely took him back a little and he was able to hold off the rest of the field.
How Bode fares in the derby will depend on what speed horses are entered, I guess Trinniberg is headed for the Preakness, and how they decide to position themselves. At any rate, I think the derby will have a fast contentious pace unless Bode becomes another War Emblem.
There may be some last minute defections and Mark Valeski and Reveron could get in which would change the complexion of the race.
The problem I have is that I pedigree handicap and I think over half the field has what I consider a classic type pedigree. This is very unusual because the most I've seen has been about 6 and last year there were only a few. I said it way back and it still stands; this is the best crop overall I think I've ever seen. Should be a terrific derby.
Backstretch
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Newsletter # 14 Recap
Newsletter # 14 Sat. 4/7/12
AQU R9 Sat. 4/7/12 Wood Memorial
I'm really kind of excited about this race. I had mentioned in several places that Gemologist was the horse I liked best early on for the derby. He still needs to run first or second to have enough earnings to make the field on derby day otherwise he will point for the Preakness.
What has me excited is that if my prediction was right about this horse we may see some history made. If this horse should win the KY Derby and possibly the triple crown he could become the highest priced stallion in memory. The reason I say this is that, although he's 8 generations back, he could become the flag bearer for the Man O' War sire line. If he were, with all that he might sire, there could be a resurgence of that line that hasn't happened in a long time
I liked his pedigree right off with the cross of that line with the Nearco line mares. He should have no trouble running all day and he's a big, strong, sturdy looking horse. He has done everything right up to this point including 2 wins around 2 turns at Churchill. Champions usually go about their business, doing nothing wrong and staying healthy in the bargain. So far Gem fits the bill and I'm banking on him to go all the way. Of course, I've been wrong before, I think it was on a Tuesday in 1957. LOL
My Adonis is another that I liked early but he's been a little slow coming around. He had 6 races as a 2yr old but just now seems to be coming into his own. He does have speed enough to find position, although he's gotten caught up in pace duels in the past, and I think that Elvis may have finally figured out where to place him. He is another out cross with Northern Dancer mares and should handle distance if not pushed too hard early.
Alpha is one of 3 horses this year with a big pedigree influence from Mr Prospector mares. The other 2 are Hansen and Reveron although there may be something I missed along the way. There are however, a lot of horses with this type breeding this year but none that I think will make the derby beside these. The problem I have with horses bred along these lines is that they can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and some to 9f but I can't recall a derby winner with a pedigree of this type. He may be one of those rare exceptions because his damsire is a son of Northern Dancer and 4 of the last 12 derby winners have had a son of ND as the damsire. At any rate, Alpha will probably be a contender in here but I don't think he is in a class with Gem but we may see a good battle for second.
These are the only ones in this race with my derby profile but that doesn't mean others can't be contenders at this distance.
1- Gemologist
2- My Adonis
3- Alpha
4- Tiger Walk.....good closer..draws JR and may get a minor piece.
For my bet I think I'll put Gem on top of the next 2 with all for the exotics.
Recap;
Very exciting race but I don't think it was as close as it appeared to be. Why do I say that? Gem was coming down the stretch with his ears pricked and as Gary Stevens said, "He's just playing!". He was looking around and not keeping his mind on the business at hand. JJ said he was looking around and not really running hard until he saw the other horse and then he dug in and it looked to me that he was starting to inch away at the finish. Ramon, on Alpha, confirmed this when he said he thought he had it but when Gem saw Alpha he got back into it and held him off. Another little point that many may have missed is that coming out of the gate Gem actually broke on top. This horse has a lot of speed but rates nicely so the jock will have a chance to avoid trouble and get a favorable position.
I had posted elsewhere way back in Jan. that this horse would win the Derby and I feel confident that he will. He has a pedigree that I love being an outcrossed horse and I think he can run all day. He has done everything right so far and that's how the great horses are. I think he is coming up to the Derby in a perfect form cycle and we haven't seen his best race yet.
As I have stated, I believe Alpha is a really nice horse up to 1 1/8 but I have doubts about him getting that other 1/8 in the Derby.
PS...Not that it paid very much but I did post my winning bet.
SA Derby:
This race is tough for me because of the form cycles. They seem to treat these horses like they were made of glass, very thin glass. I have a few with pedigrees I like but I have no idea how they will run considering how they are trained. I mean, 7-8 weeks between races? Are they a bunch of cripples?
I'm not in love with the pedigree of Creative Cause but I will have to go with him just because he's so steady. He may not win the KY Derby but it looks like he has an edge in experience and class against these. There are some others that could have run in this race but everyone is looking for an easy spot. As I've said before, the goal seems to be to just get to the big show whether the horse has a chance or not.
I like the pedigree of I'll Have Another and you know I had him in my picks last time when he won but 8 weeks is a long time between races. O'Neill was worried about him bouncing because he ran a good number last time but that number wouldn't have won the Derby. How can a horse improve from one race to another when they go back to square one after each race. I know he ran a good one last time after a lengthy lay off but if he runs that way again it may not be good enough to win this.
Paynter has a beautiful pedigree that I really like but asking a horse, no matter how well he's bred, to go from a win in a maiden sprint to a grade 1 at 9f is a tall order. These horses would be better off in my opinion if they were raced into condition rather than trained up to the race every month or so. A horse gets more out of one race than it does from 5 works. I also think it's more of a risk to give him all those works than to give him a race. Oh, I forgot that the main object is to try to keep him undefeated. Bull Dinky!
Midnight Transfer is nicely bred and would be coming up to the Derby just right if he wins this but I don't think he makes the show without a win. It's going to take 300,000. or more to get in this year me thinks.
This race may actually be up for grabs but you have to call them as you see them. Liaison is not bad and is due to bounce back one of these days. Senor Rain has a Derby type pedigree but just hasn't run to it even though he's had enough chances.
1- Creative Cause
2- I'll Have Another
3- Paynter
4- Midnight Transfer
Recap;
I did out think myself in this race as I have done in the past. I basically handicap these races by pedigree but do include performance, not speed figures, in my handicapping. I sometimes make the mistake of trying to get cute and find some reason to put another horse over my pedigree pick. In this case I thought the long lay off might have I'll Have Another a little short but he wasn't so I should have kept him on top. The race was very close so if the bob had gone the other way I might have thought I'd done the right thing but I didn't.
I don't know how much it hurt him but Paynter got off to a bad start but as I said, he was taking a mighty big jump in class and distance. He didn't run badly though and I think he will be heard from in the future because he has a super pedigree.
Baffert's other horse got that lead and just didn't want to quit. Maybe the track was just speed favoring because nobody but the top 2 made any kind of run.
Illinios Derby:
This is a wide open race and it's like a last ditch stand with everybody trying to get enough earnings. I'm not too fond of him but Our Entourage looks like the one to beat. So far there have been 8 horses that came out of the Breeders Cup race to win one of these preps. That must have been a really key race so I can't buck that trend. This one also got into a murder-suicide pact with Souper Speedy on the front end in the Remsen and was only beaten a length by EL Padrino.
Done talking is another who ran well in the Remsen but really threw a clunker in the Gotham. It was his first start of the year after more than 3 months off so I'll give him a chance to make amends because he has a nice pedigree and Smith is a better trainer than that race shows. Post may really hinder him because he wants to come from well out of it.
The pedigree in here that I like the most is Arm Force but it's doubtful if he gets in the race. He was entered in the LA Derby and scratched. Julian isn't slated to ride either so I don't know what's up with him.
Currency Swap chased Gemologist in his last and comes right back. Probably the easiest spot he will find. He's a nice one but I think he may out of his element at the longer distances.
Pretension is nicely bred and should handle the distance. Comes out of the Gotham where he finished on even terms with Finnegan's Wake who went to the Southland and didn't show much so he will have to improve some.
Skyring and Saturday's Launch both have nice pedigrees and both have won their last. Sat. Launch has only had one dirt race and that was his first start. He has run second to Daddy Nose best who has won 2 preps in a row with his last being in the Southland on dirt. He also has a good race against Exothermic who is undefeated and was only beaten a nose by News Pending. Has a top notch trainer in McPeek who must think he can handle dirt. This is his first try in a graded race this year but I wouldn't be suprised to see him charge down the lane to win this at a huge price. In fact, I'm going to pick him on top and hope to be a whiz kid in this one.
1- Saturday's Launch
2- Our Entourage
3- Arm Force........if he gets in
4- Done Talking
5- Currency Swap
And a really long one for the exotics, Skyring.
I am wondering how Julian is going to make up his mind as to who to ride in the big one. I guess he will stick with Union Rags but he's in a nice spot for a ride.
Recap;
This is the race where I really made a mistake going against my pedigree handicapping. I thought all along that the pedigrees of Currency Swap and Our Entourage said they were distance challenged and they were. I should have dismissed them as I usually do but the fact that there wasn't really many horses in here that had proved much swayed me.
Done Talking is a horse that I had liked early on and had picked him in his last where he didn't run a lick. This may be one of those cases where the jock made the difference. Sheldon had won with this horse and then 2 different jocks were employed in his next races. A return to the boy who had won with him and bingo! Something like Drosslemeyer and Mike Smith. You know the old saying, "Don't fix what ain't broke". At any rate, I like his pedigree although I'm not sure if he can handle the likes of Gem and Rags.
Arm Force has a super nice pedigree and they skipped the LA Derby for this but didn't draw in and was scratched. He may try to jump into one of the remaining preps.
Saturday's Launch, the longshot I put on top, had some questions going to dirt for the first time but ran a good race. He was bumped around quite a bit and was checked coming into the stretch and was only beaten a neck for third less than 3 lengths from the winner so I don't think I really made a bad choice as racing luck played a big part.
I think they learned something about Hakama in that he was usually up front in his races but because of bumping at the start was knocked back but made a great run to get third just edging my top choice.
I wasn't impressed with Morgan's G.s pedigree but hed had a couple nice races and caught a lot of money indicating he was live in this race.
All told, I think this was a rough run race and a few had bad trips. This happens with big fields and this one had 14 runners so imagine what can happen with 20 in the Derby.
Not a bad weekend of picks and we only have a few to go till the big one. The ARK Derby next week should be a really good one and there may be a real sleeper or 2 in it.
Backstretch
AQU R9 Sat. 4/7/12 Wood Memorial
I'm really kind of excited about this race. I had mentioned in several places that Gemologist was the horse I liked best early on for the derby. He still needs to run first or second to have enough earnings to make the field on derby day otherwise he will point for the Preakness.
What has me excited is that if my prediction was right about this horse we may see some history made. If this horse should win the KY Derby and possibly the triple crown he could become the highest priced stallion in memory. The reason I say this is that, although he's 8 generations back, he could become the flag bearer for the Man O' War sire line. If he were, with all that he might sire, there could be a resurgence of that line that hasn't happened in a long time
I liked his pedigree right off with the cross of that line with the Nearco line mares. He should have no trouble running all day and he's a big, strong, sturdy looking horse. He has done everything right up to this point including 2 wins around 2 turns at Churchill. Champions usually go about their business, doing nothing wrong and staying healthy in the bargain. So far Gem fits the bill and I'm banking on him to go all the way. Of course, I've been wrong before, I think it was on a Tuesday in 1957. LOL
My Adonis is another that I liked early but he's been a little slow coming around. He had 6 races as a 2yr old but just now seems to be coming into his own. He does have speed enough to find position, although he's gotten caught up in pace duels in the past, and I think that Elvis may have finally figured out where to place him. He is another out cross with Northern Dancer mares and should handle distance if not pushed too hard early.
Alpha is one of 3 horses this year with a big pedigree influence from Mr Prospector mares. The other 2 are Hansen and Reveron although there may be something I missed along the way. There are however, a lot of horses with this type breeding this year but none that I think will make the derby beside these. The problem I have with horses bred along these lines is that they can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and some to 9f but I can't recall a derby winner with a pedigree of this type. He may be one of those rare exceptions because his damsire is a son of Northern Dancer and 4 of the last 12 derby winners have had a son of ND as the damsire. At any rate, Alpha will probably be a contender in here but I don't think he is in a class with Gem but we may see a good battle for second.
These are the only ones in this race with my derby profile but that doesn't mean others can't be contenders at this distance.
1- Gemologist
2- My Adonis
3- Alpha
4- Tiger Walk.....good closer..draws JR and may get a minor piece.
For my bet I think I'll put Gem on top of the next 2 with all for the exotics.
Recap;
Very exciting race but I don't think it was as close as it appeared to be. Why do I say that? Gem was coming down the stretch with his ears pricked and as Gary Stevens said, "He's just playing!". He was looking around and not keeping his mind on the business at hand. JJ said he was looking around and not really running hard until he saw the other horse and then he dug in and it looked to me that he was starting to inch away at the finish. Ramon, on Alpha, confirmed this when he said he thought he had it but when Gem saw Alpha he got back into it and held him off. Another little point that many may have missed is that coming out of the gate Gem actually broke on top. This horse has a lot of speed but rates nicely so the jock will have a chance to avoid trouble and get a favorable position.
I had posted elsewhere way back in Jan. that this horse would win the Derby and I feel confident that he will. He has a pedigree that I love being an outcrossed horse and I think he can run all day. He has done everything right so far and that's how the great horses are. I think he is coming up to the Derby in a perfect form cycle and we haven't seen his best race yet.
As I have stated, I believe Alpha is a really nice horse up to 1 1/8 but I have doubts about him getting that other 1/8 in the Derby.
PS...Not that it paid very much but I did post my winning bet.
SA Derby:
This race is tough for me because of the form cycles. They seem to treat these horses like they were made of glass, very thin glass. I have a few with pedigrees I like but I have no idea how they will run considering how they are trained. I mean, 7-8 weeks between races? Are they a bunch of cripples?
I'm not in love with the pedigree of Creative Cause but I will have to go with him just because he's so steady. He may not win the KY Derby but it looks like he has an edge in experience and class against these. There are some others that could have run in this race but everyone is looking for an easy spot. As I've said before, the goal seems to be to just get to the big show whether the horse has a chance or not.
I like the pedigree of I'll Have Another and you know I had him in my picks last time when he won but 8 weeks is a long time between races. O'Neill was worried about him bouncing because he ran a good number last time but that number wouldn't have won the Derby. How can a horse improve from one race to another when they go back to square one after each race. I know he ran a good one last time after a lengthy lay off but if he runs that way again it may not be good enough to win this.
Paynter has a beautiful pedigree that I really like but asking a horse, no matter how well he's bred, to go from a win in a maiden sprint to a grade 1 at 9f is a tall order. These horses would be better off in my opinion if they were raced into condition rather than trained up to the race every month or so. A horse gets more out of one race than it does from 5 works. I also think it's more of a risk to give him all those works than to give him a race. Oh, I forgot that the main object is to try to keep him undefeated. Bull Dinky!
Midnight Transfer is nicely bred and would be coming up to the Derby just right if he wins this but I don't think he makes the show without a win. It's going to take 300,000. or more to get in this year me thinks.
This race may actually be up for grabs but you have to call them as you see them. Liaison is not bad and is due to bounce back one of these days. Senor Rain has a Derby type pedigree but just hasn't run to it even though he's had enough chances.
1- Creative Cause
2- I'll Have Another
3- Paynter
4- Midnight Transfer
Recap;
I did out think myself in this race as I have done in the past. I basically handicap these races by pedigree but do include performance, not speed figures, in my handicapping. I sometimes make the mistake of trying to get cute and find some reason to put another horse over my pedigree pick. In this case I thought the long lay off might have I'll Have Another a little short but he wasn't so I should have kept him on top. The race was very close so if the bob had gone the other way I might have thought I'd done the right thing but I didn't.
I don't know how much it hurt him but Paynter got off to a bad start but as I said, he was taking a mighty big jump in class and distance. He didn't run badly though and I think he will be heard from in the future because he has a super pedigree.
Baffert's other horse got that lead and just didn't want to quit. Maybe the track was just speed favoring because nobody but the top 2 made any kind of run.
Illinios Derby:
This is a wide open race and it's like a last ditch stand with everybody trying to get enough earnings. I'm not too fond of him but Our Entourage looks like the one to beat. So far there have been 8 horses that came out of the Breeders Cup race to win one of these preps. That must have been a really key race so I can't buck that trend. This one also got into a murder-suicide pact with Souper Speedy on the front end in the Remsen and was only beaten a length by EL Padrino.
Done talking is another who ran well in the Remsen but really threw a clunker in the Gotham. It was his first start of the year after more than 3 months off so I'll give him a chance to make amends because he has a nice pedigree and Smith is a better trainer than that race shows. Post may really hinder him because he wants to come from well out of it.
The pedigree in here that I like the most is Arm Force but it's doubtful if he gets in the race. He was entered in the LA Derby and scratched. Julian isn't slated to ride either so I don't know what's up with him.
Currency Swap chased Gemologist in his last and comes right back. Probably the easiest spot he will find. He's a nice one but I think he may out of his element at the longer distances.
Pretension is nicely bred and should handle the distance. Comes out of the Gotham where he finished on even terms with Finnegan's Wake who went to the Southland and didn't show much so he will have to improve some.
Skyring and Saturday's Launch both have nice pedigrees and both have won their last. Sat. Launch has only had one dirt race and that was his first start. He has run second to Daddy Nose best who has won 2 preps in a row with his last being in the Southland on dirt. He also has a good race against Exothermic who is undefeated and was only beaten a nose by News Pending. Has a top notch trainer in McPeek who must think he can handle dirt. This is his first try in a graded race this year but I wouldn't be suprised to see him charge down the lane to win this at a huge price. In fact, I'm going to pick him on top and hope to be a whiz kid in this one.
1- Saturday's Launch
2- Our Entourage
3- Arm Force........if he gets in
4- Done Talking
5- Currency Swap
And a really long one for the exotics, Skyring.
I am wondering how Julian is going to make up his mind as to who to ride in the big one. I guess he will stick with Union Rags but he's in a nice spot for a ride.
Recap;
This is the race where I really made a mistake going against my pedigree handicapping. I thought all along that the pedigrees of Currency Swap and Our Entourage said they were distance challenged and they were. I should have dismissed them as I usually do but the fact that there wasn't really many horses in here that had proved much swayed me.
Done Talking is a horse that I had liked early on and had picked him in his last where he didn't run a lick. This may be one of those cases where the jock made the difference. Sheldon had won with this horse and then 2 different jocks were employed in his next races. A return to the boy who had won with him and bingo! Something like Drosslemeyer and Mike Smith. You know the old saying, "Don't fix what ain't broke". At any rate, I like his pedigree although I'm not sure if he can handle the likes of Gem and Rags.
Arm Force has a super nice pedigree and they skipped the LA Derby for this but didn't draw in and was scratched. He may try to jump into one of the remaining preps.
Saturday's Launch, the longshot I put on top, had some questions going to dirt for the first time but ran a good race. He was bumped around quite a bit and was checked coming into the stretch and was only beaten a neck for third less than 3 lengths from the winner so I don't think I really made a bad choice as racing luck played a big part.
I think they learned something about Hakama in that he was usually up front in his races but because of bumping at the start was knocked back but made a great run to get third just edging my top choice.
I wasn't impressed with Morgan's G.s pedigree but hed had a couple nice races and caught a lot of money indicating he was live in this race.
All told, I think this was a rough run race and a few had bad trips. This happens with big fields and this one had 14 runners so imagine what can happen with 20 in the Derby.
Not a bad weekend of picks and we only have a few to go till the big one. The ARK Derby next week should be a really good one and there may be a real sleeper or 2 in it.
Backstretch
Monday, March 26, 2012
Newsletter # 12 Recap
Newsletter # 12 Sat. 3/24/12
Turfway R10 3/24/12 The Spiral
Is it possible to see a repeat of last year when Animal Kingdom won this and then the derby? I don't think so because in my opinion there is a dearth of nice horses this year compared to last.
I suppose we have got to wonder how some of these will take to the poly because that's always an unknown. I've only got three horses in here that fit my derby profile but a couple of them look very good.
I have Heavy Breathing who I'm going to make my choice for this. Has had 2 races and won both with the last being at this distance. I think he's bred to run all day and has good tactical speed so JJ should be able to put him wherever he likes.
Handsome Mike is a really well bred horse who has been running well but getting beat by being on a fast pace. I think with the switch to Joel they will try to rate him a little. If it weren't for that bad outside post I would probably pick him to win but I think he's going to get used hard to get a striking position unless he goes for the lead again which could be even more trouble.
I'm not crazy about Went The Day Well but Motion won this last year with Animal and looks to have this one coming up to a good race.
I'll round it out with Holiday Promise who has a lot of the same lines as Heavy Breathing. Has shown promise but this is first try against this kind of company. I think he's sitting on a big race and would not be surprised to see Pletcher take both top spots.
1- Heavy Breathing
2- Handsome Mike
3- Went The Day Well
4- Holiday Promise.
Sunland Derby R12 Sun. 3/25/12
There are only three horses in here that have my derby profile and 2 of them just broke their maiden. Isn't He Clever has a very nice pedigree and he has lots of experience. One thing I have noticed is that almost all the preps so far have been won by horses with experience. This guy has won 4 of 6 and was off the board only once and that was against some good ones, especially I'll Have Another, who ran a super good race. Incidently, I think that's the only prep race that a long shot won and he was one of my pedigree horses. If you recall, I had that big exacta in my picks that day.
Ender Knievel and Stirred Up both have nice breeding and fit my derby profile. I like the way Ender blew the field away in his last start but I think the pace was a little slow in that race and he was never challenged.
Stirred Up looks like he is just coming into his own after running a good race against Bodemeister who barely got beat by Creative Cause.
I know there are those that will think I'm crazy for dismissing Castaway but that's just what I'm going to do. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think he will get beat here. He won the Southwest on the pace but the fractions were on the slow side. I also don't think there was anything in there to beat. A very mediocre field in my opinion.
I feel that Ender is going to be on the motor and the pace will be pretty quick so I feel that someone coming off the pace will take this one. I think Daddy Nose Best has a good shot if he doesn't fall too far off the pace. He beat a couple nice ones in his last but benefited from a super good ride by Julian. I also don't know how he will take to dirt, but of course, he may love it.
I'm really going to go out on a limb and stick with the pedigrees. After all, we did get that 44/1 shot strictly off the pedigree.
1- Isn't He Clever
2- Stirred Up
3- Ender Knievel
4- Daddy Nose Best
Good Luck,
Backstretch
I was a little surprised that Heavy Breathing backed out of it but other than that the others ran well. I thought Mr. Motion had Went The Day Well ready for a big one and he sure did. He really knows how to get them ready this time of year.
I wasn't surprised by the effort of Holiday Promise because I think he is a very well bred colt and probably has a bright future in store.
Handsome Mike is a really nice colt and just can't seem to catch a good trip. He has a lot of speed but has gotten caught up in speed duels in the past and I thought the jockey switch, although I think Nakatani is a very good jock, might get him to rate a little. I was afraid the post would hurt him and he got off to a bad start anyway. Mike is a much better horse than his finishes have shown and sooner or later he's going to pop that big one.
Down at Sunland the hardest decision I had to make was dismissing Castaway. I don't care for his pedigree for the classics and though he may be a nice horse, I don't see him as a G1 colt.
As I thought it would, a speed duel ensued and set it up for the closer. I do feel that Isn't He Clever was used a little hard early and stayed a little close to that quick pace getting the lead in a fast 3/4. His connections have said they may try something like the Bluegrass if he ran a good race so maybe we haven't seen the last of him..
The race set up perfect for Daddy and he got another great ride from Julian. He has a nice style for the Derby and will probably be a major threat there.
I have been criticized by some who say I claim having the winner of these preps when I give 4 horses. That may be true to an extent because sometimes my top pick wins and other times it's one of the others that win.
I think that those who get down on me are missing the point, which is, to place a winning bet. In these type races it really doesn't matter if the winner is pinpointed or not because most players are going for the exotics, at least I know my clients are, and they are the ones I've got to keep happy.
Just by sticking with my pedigree likes I've had a 44/1 winner on top of my first choice, my first choice on top of another 44/1 shot several nice trifectas in addition to the exactas and in the Spiral all 4 of my picks were in the money making for a really nice super.
Seems like I'm able to get those long shots in there just by using their pedigrees although I have also been told I don't know anything about breeding.
So as a few friends, who are good handicappers, always say; the object is to make winning and profitable plays, don't worry about which horse actually wins, because whether you win or not is the only thing that counts. I certainly hope you won this week.
PS...If interested in subscribing to my low cost newsletter please send e mail.
Turfway R10 3/24/12 The Spiral
Is it possible to see a repeat of last year when Animal Kingdom won this and then the derby? I don't think so because in my opinion there is a dearth of nice horses this year compared to last.
I suppose we have got to wonder how some of these will take to the poly because that's always an unknown. I've only got three horses in here that fit my derby profile but a couple of them look very good.
I have Heavy Breathing who I'm going to make my choice for this. Has had 2 races and won both with the last being at this distance. I think he's bred to run all day and has good tactical speed so JJ should be able to put him wherever he likes.
Handsome Mike is a really well bred horse who has been running well but getting beat by being on a fast pace. I think with the switch to Joel they will try to rate him a little. If it weren't for that bad outside post I would probably pick him to win but I think he's going to get used hard to get a striking position unless he goes for the lead again which could be even more trouble.
I'm not crazy about Went The Day Well but Motion won this last year with Animal and looks to have this one coming up to a good race.
I'll round it out with Holiday Promise who has a lot of the same lines as Heavy Breathing. Has shown promise but this is first try against this kind of company. I think he's sitting on a big race and would not be surprised to see Pletcher take both top spots.
1- Heavy Breathing
2- Handsome Mike
3- Went The Day Well
4- Holiday Promise.
Sunland Derby R12 Sun. 3/25/12
There are only three horses in here that have my derby profile and 2 of them just broke their maiden. Isn't He Clever has a very nice pedigree and he has lots of experience. One thing I have noticed is that almost all the preps so far have been won by horses with experience. This guy has won 4 of 6 and was off the board only once and that was against some good ones, especially I'll Have Another, who ran a super good race. Incidently, I think that's the only prep race that a long shot won and he was one of my pedigree horses. If you recall, I had that big exacta in my picks that day.
Ender Knievel and Stirred Up both have nice breeding and fit my derby profile. I like the way Ender blew the field away in his last start but I think the pace was a little slow in that race and he was never challenged.
Stirred Up looks like he is just coming into his own after running a good race against Bodemeister who barely got beat by Creative Cause.
I know there are those that will think I'm crazy for dismissing Castaway but that's just what I'm going to do. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I think he will get beat here. He won the Southwest on the pace but the fractions were on the slow side. I also don't think there was anything in there to beat. A very mediocre field in my opinion.
I feel that Ender is going to be on the motor and the pace will be pretty quick so I feel that someone coming off the pace will take this one. I think Daddy Nose Best has a good shot if he doesn't fall too far off the pace. He beat a couple nice ones in his last but benefited from a super good ride by Julian. I also don't know how he will take to dirt, but of course, he may love it.
I'm really going to go out on a limb and stick with the pedigrees. After all, we did get that 44/1 shot strictly off the pedigree.
1- Isn't He Clever
2- Stirred Up
3- Ender Knievel
4- Daddy Nose Best
Good Luck,
Backstretch
RECAP
I was a little surprised that Heavy Breathing backed out of it but other than that the others ran well. I thought Mr. Motion had Went The Day Well ready for a big one and he sure did. He really knows how to get them ready this time of year.
I wasn't surprised by the effort of Holiday Promise because I think he is a very well bred colt and probably has a bright future in store.
Handsome Mike is a really nice colt and just can't seem to catch a good trip. He has a lot of speed but has gotten caught up in speed duels in the past and I thought the jockey switch, although I think Nakatani is a very good jock, might get him to rate a little. I was afraid the post would hurt him and he got off to a bad start anyway. Mike is a much better horse than his finishes have shown and sooner or later he's going to pop that big one.
Down at Sunland the hardest decision I had to make was dismissing Castaway. I don't care for his pedigree for the classics and though he may be a nice horse, I don't see him as a G1 colt.
As I thought it would, a speed duel ensued and set it up for the closer. I do feel that Isn't He Clever was used a little hard early and stayed a little close to that quick pace getting the lead in a fast 3/4. His connections have said they may try something like the Bluegrass if he ran a good race so maybe we haven't seen the last of him..
The race set up perfect for Daddy and he got another great ride from Julian. He has a nice style for the Derby and will probably be a major threat there.
I have been criticized by some who say I claim having the winner of these preps when I give 4 horses. That may be true to an extent because sometimes my top pick wins and other times it's one of the others that win.
I think that those who get down on me are missing the point, which is, to place a winning bet. In these type races it really doesn't matter if the winner is pinpointed or not because most players are going for the exotics, at least I know my clients are, and they are the ones I've got to keep happy.
Just by sticking with my pedigree likes I've had a 44/1 winner on top of my first choice, my first choice on top of another 44/1 shot several nice trifectas in addition to the exactas and in the Spiral all 4 of my picks were in the money making for a really nice super.
Seems like I'm able to get those long shots in there just by using their pedigrees although I have also been told I don't know anything about breeding.
So as a few friends, who are good handicappers, always say; the object is to make winning and profitable plays, don't worry about which horse actually wins, because whether you win or not is the only thing that counts. I certainly hope you won this week.
PS...If interested in subscribing to my low cost newsletter please send e mail.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
A Tribute To My Internet Friends
A Tribute To My Internet Friends
Yesterday I turned 79 years of age. So far I've had a long and eventful life and done most of the things I've wanted to do. I've traveled a lot and rubbed shoulders with everyone from billionaires to mobsters.
Almost all my old friends are gone now but thanks to the internet I've made some great new ones. I also want to say that I have met some of the nastiest people alive on the internet although I can't believe they could be so rotten in real life. It makes me think that the internet is something like alcohol in that some people are just plain obnoxious drunks and others aren't.
Having said that, I just want to express my appreciation to the people I have met on the net and in particular a couple of guys that are just plain super stand-up guys.
As most of you know I have a little handicapping service and two of these friends are also clients and are wonderful to deal with. They always inquire about my health, which isn't too good these days, and seem to have great faith in my judgement.
One of these friends has been with me for 7-8 yrs now and never goes to the track without my selections for the day. The other is not only a bettor but an owner as well and will buy a horse just on my say so. I can't tell you how good it makes one feel to have someone put their trust in you in a game like horse racing.
They not only reward me with their trust but always take care of me financially. They never bitch or moan when they lose and never lie or short change me in any way. As I said; two really outstanding and stand-up guys who are both successful business men but are quite humble and never arrogant or demeaning. I feel very greatful to have met them and one wish I would have would be to spend some time at the track with all of us together. In my book they are two outstanding individuals who have helped restore my faith in people and I place the highest value possible on their friendship.
There are others I've met online and talk with on the phone and we spend hours talking horses and I also thank them for their friendship and help in keeping my interest alive, otherwise, I would be like many who are retired and become bored and lonely and soon wilt away.
So again, thanks to all my internet friends and I hope we are able to spend many more rewarding years together.
Backstretch
Yesterday I turned 79 years of age. So far I've had a long and eventful life and done most of the things I've wanted to do. I've traveled a lot and rubbed shoulders with everyone from billionaires to mobsters.
Almost all my old friends are gone now but thanks to the internet I've made some great new ones. I also want to say that I have met some of the nastiest people alive on the internet although I can't believe they could be so rotten in real life. It makes me think that the internet is something like alcohol in that some people are just plain obnoxious drunks and others aren't.
Having said that, I just want to express my appreciation to the people I have met on the net and in particular a couple of guys that are just plain super stand-up guys.
As most of you know I have a little handicapping service and two of these friends are also clients and are wonderful to deal with. They always inquire about my health, which isn't too good these days, and seem to have great faith in my judgement.
One of these friends has been with me for 7-8 yrs now and never goes to the track without my selections for the day. The other is not only a bettor but an owner as well and will buy a horse just on my say so. I can't tell you how good it makes one feel to have someone put their trust in you in a game like horse racing.
They not only reward me with their trust but always take care of me financially. They never bitch or moan when they lose and never lie or short change me in any way. As I said; two really outstanding and stand-up guys who are both successful business men but are quite humble and never arrogant or demeaning. I feel very greatful to have met them and one wish I would have would be to spend some time at the track with all of us together. In my book they are two outstanding individuals who have helped restore my faith in people and I place the highest value possible on their friendship.
There are others I've met online and talk with on the phone and we spend hours talking horses and I also thank them for their friendship and help in keeping my interest alive, otherwise, I would be like many who are retired and become bored and lonely and soon wilt away.
So again, thanks to all my internet friends and I hope we are able to spend many more rewarding years together.
Backstretch
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Newsletter # 10 Recap
Newsletter #10 Sat. 3/10/12
GP R10 3/10/12 The Swale
This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.
J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.
This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.
If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.
There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.
1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?
2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.
3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.
4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance
Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.
Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous
I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.
TAM R11 3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby
This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.
I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.
Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.
I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.
1- Spring Hill Farm
2- Prospective
3- Battle Hardened
4- Cozzetti
SA R9 3/10/12 The San Felipe
I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.
Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.
I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.
I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.
Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.
1- Bodemeister
2- Tiz Point
3- Creative Cause
4- Empire Way
5- Liaison
RECAP:
Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.
Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.
We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.
We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!
I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.
Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.
Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!
Backstretch
GP R10 3/10/12 The Swale
This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.
J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.
This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.
If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.
There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.
1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?
2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.
3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.
4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance
Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.
Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous
I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.
TAM R11 3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby
This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.
I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.
Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.
I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.
1- Spring Hill Farm
2- Prospective
3- Battle Hardened
4- Cozzetti
SA R9 3/10/12 The San Felipe
I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.
Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.
I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.
I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.
Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.
1- Bodemeister
2- Tiz Point
3- Creative Cause
4- Empire Way
5- Liaison
RECAP:
Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.
Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.
We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.
We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!
I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.
Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.
Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!
Backstretch
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Gotham Recap
Gotham Recap
I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.
I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.
There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.
Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.
Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.
Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
I have mixed feelings about this race. I really thought it would be more competitive but it turned out to be a two horse race or maybe even a one horse race. There were a lot of nice pedigrees in it but none ran to their breeding.
I will say I was surprised that Hansen rated so kindly. When a pure speed horse takes to being rated it is a huge advantage in that they are usually able to be placed wherever the jock wants him. I am still not sold on Hansen because I really don't think he can get 1 1/4 especially if a couple of true speed horses that can get a distance set a fast pace in the Derby.
There are still a lot of races to go and the two who are usually loaded for bear, Baffert and Pletcher, still have some shots left in the gun. We will have to see what Baffert does with Fed Biz and Bodemeister out west. He may take another at Oaklawn with Secret Circle but I'm not high on Castaway.
Although I'm not a fan of Pletcher, he has a few very nice ones that have yet to start. In addition to Gemologist, he has a couple that need earnings but look to be very good. Spring Hill Farm looks to be very speedy and has a great pedigree but I think he has a real sleeper in Stat. He has some graded earnings, a derby type pedigree and looks to want distance.
Even though Union Rags looks to be a monster at this point I think there are still a few ready to explode on the scene. Exothermic is a really nice number that may take a route like Animal Kingdom and his pedigree says he should have no problem with dirt. Some of these turf horses can really turn it up a notch if they take to dirt, probably because to be really good on the grass they need a damned good closing kick.
Lots of action ahead and nobody knows what kind of twists and turns this season will take.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
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