Newsletter #10 Sat. 3/10/12
GP R10 3/10/12 The Swale
This race is usually full of sprinters but there are a couple in here that I assume are just getting a tune up. One of my derby horses, Motor City, makes his first appearance since winning the Iroquois at CD in Oct. Borel had said this was his derby horse but he is at TAM riding Take Charge Indy.
J. Leparoux is also over at TAM to ride Battle Hardened so I would think this is also a tune up for Ever So Lucky. Cruz has also decided on Golden Ticket at TAM so I guess he thinks that's a better shot than Good Morning Diva.
This is not to say these don't have a chance just because the jocks elect to go to a more important race. In fact, ESL and MC look to be the class of this race. Not all of these are nominated to the derby but there are some real nice pedigrees in here. I am actually amazed at the number of horses this year that would qualify them as derby horses. Last year there were only a dozen or so but there are at least three times that many this year.
If all the horses had derby pedigrees some would have to be better than others so I can't say any particular horse will win simply because it has a great pedigree.
There are five in here that qualify on my derby profile; Trinniberg, Motor City, Bahamian Squall, Seve and Good Morning Diva.Any one of them may win this for a couple of reasons. One reason is that it is a sprint and the other is, as I said, it may only be a tune up for a couple of them.
1- Ever So Lucky...not thinking of him for the derby but seems to be a cut above these right now with that second to Gemologist..how ready is he?
2- Seve...taking a shot here because of his experience and nice pedigree.
3- Motor City...distance may be too short but he should be motoring at the end.
4- Bahamian Squall...lovely breeding...will probably like the distance
Good Morning Diva..I probably should rate him higher at this distance.
Trinniberg...very speedy...surprised at huge odds in the Hopeful but tends to tire...still dangerous
I will look for some value and probably use a couple of the newcomers in the exotics. I feel ESL will be the chalk and I will try to beat him even though he looks best on paper...might be a little short on condition.
TAM R11 3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby
This should be a competitive race with horses coming from numerous different races. We have some coming off the turf, a couple stretching out and a few that have been factors in graded races already. Should be interesting.
I have 6 in here that fit my derby profile and no standouts on form. I have been looking all year to find a quality front runner that fits my derby profile and have only seen a couple possibles and Spring Hill Farm is one of them. A superb pedigree and has wired the field in both his races so I'm going with him to win. I really hope he's got the right stuff because I'd like to see what Hansen does with a front runner of quality.
Battle Hardened, Cozzetti, Golden Ticket, Prospective and Tell All You Know all fit my derby profile so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take it all.
I don't see anyone that looks like it's able to run with SHF early except maybe Cajun Charlie and Tell All You Know. If Spring is able to top it all the way most of them may be far back early but those two may take some of the starch out of Spring Hill early. Another possible scenerio is if JJ can rate Spring early till the leaders quit. Take Charge looks to have enough speed to stay fairly close and has gone the distance a few times. The closers will be trying to catch the top two.
1- Spring Hill Farm
2- Prospective
3- Battle Hardened
4- Cozzetti
SA R9 3/10/12 The San Felipe
I think I'm going to take the same tack here as in the Tampa Derby. As I have said, I am still looking for that quality front runner that can sustain his speed over a distance so I will go with Baffert's horse Bodemeister. He blew them away last time at a mile and his pedigree tells me he can go farther than that.
Another with a pedigree that says he should run all day is Tiz Point. I know he doesn't have much in the way of speed figures but I kind of think he's really bred for dirt and he hasn't tried that yet. He has a second to Stoney Fleece who is a very nice turf horse that won the generous Stakes. Mandella has a very good % when going from turf to dirt and this one has been working nicely at SA. I'm giving him a shot at long odds in addition to the fact that he fits my derby profile. Doesn't hurt that he gets Gomez up either.
I am not crazy about the pedigree of Creative Cause but at this distance he's a serious contender. In fact, I think he will go off as the chalk.
I love the pedigree of Empire Way and he's on my Derby list but I think he wants more distance like the derby distance. I don't think the post is going to help him being that he wants to come off the pace. Jock will have to get lucky to work a good trip. If he doesn't win he's going to have to get some earnings somewhere and I think Harrington is really pointing him to the SA Derby.
Liaison is another with a good pedigree but he doesn't need any earnings so if it should come down to him and Bodemeister I have the feeling Baffert would like to see Bodemeister get the money.
1- Bodemeister
2- Tiz Point
3- Creative Cause
4- Empire Way
5- Liaison
RECAP:
Things didn't quite work out this week. It was a shame that Spring Hill Farm fractured a leg in the TAM Derby. Don't know how he even managed to finish the race.
Prospective, my 2nd choice proved to be very game winning it and may be a force to be dealt with later. He is another that came out of the Breeders Cup to win and I have been thinking that the BC was one of those key races where most of them win their next race. On second thought however, I am more inclined to think that horses like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause and Prospective have had a big advantage in experience and having had a solid foundation built.
We had the same type situation in the San Felipe with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Bodemeister looked very good in his first try against graded company but it's asking an awful lot to try to beat a horse like Creative Cause.
We are now left with a bunch of potentially good ones scrambling to get some graded earnings. I think that many of these trainers are putting all their eggs in one basket. Not good!
I don't know if there are other circumstances which cause so many of these derby nominees to get a late start or if it's the mindset of trainers now a days with this business of trying to get to the Derby with only a couple starts but it sure doesn't seem to be working very well.
Which brings me to Pletcher and his strategy: We all know what he did with Uncle Mo last year in trying to keep him undefeated. They came up with that special race just for him and it left him totally unprepared when he met some real competition and I feel he is doing the same thing with Gemologist who has really looked to be his best prospect. Early on he decided to take the same path to the Derby as with Super Saver but has now switched gears. He has entered Gemologist in an allowance race that appeared out of the blue like that race for Uncle mo last year.
Gemologist still needs some earnings to make the Derby but I think Pletcher is trying to keep this horse undefeated as with Mo. One must remember that an undefeated horse is worth a helluva lot more at stud than one that's been beat. I guess he feels he's got a soft spot for a tune-up race. I think he may be heading for the ARK. Derby but this whole scheme may blow up in his face if Gemologist can't win that one. If he had tried the Rebel or the TAM Derby he could have had two shots at graded earnings but I still think he's more concerned with keeping this horse undefeated so is putting all his eggs in one basket. The kicker would be if he gets beat in the allowance race. Talk about egg on your face!
Backstretch
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