La Derby
I will probably regret this but I am disregarding Greenpointcrusader in this race. He did win a G1 as a 2 yr old and his claim to fame this year is that he ran second to Mohaymen but someone had to run second and that was a poor field even though it was the fastest prep so far. I attribute that to Mohaymen. The reason I'm tossing him is that, #1, I don't care much for his pedigree but I may be way off base with that. Reason #2 is his being away for almost 2 months and it's not easy to keep a horse on edge for that long. He's been working steady but nothing really sharp. I think the reasoning is that they want a fresh horse going into the derby but he has to get the points first and I just think the strategy will backfire on them.
The horse with one of the pedigrees I like best is Mo Tom. Not only is he well bred but he's been bringing his A game to all of his starts. The only knock against him is that he runs from well off the pace and is subject to finding trouble getting a clear shot. They would probably do well to keep him on the outside despite the fact that he would lose ground on the turns. His pedigree also says he should like the added distance.
Another pedigree I really like is Conquest Windycity. His sire is the only horse to win the BB Classic twice and Tiznow is actually an outcross to the Northern Dancer/Bold Ruler lines. He may be a horse that's a little slow to develop but they gave him 4 months off to let him mature a little. His pedigree sure says he should handle any distance. He hasn't run very fast yet but he's only had one start as a 3 yr old. With all the nice horses he gets it's about time for Casse to step up to the plate.
I'm a little undecided where to place Gun Runner. He has a decent pedigree and comes in here with some good connections. He's never ran a bad race but I don't know if he really wants more distance. A couple more jumps and he would have been third rather than first in his last. He should be around at the finish but may fall a little short.
There are a couple that have very nice pedigrees but haven't run in any graded races yet. Battery is one of Pletcher's well bred colts and is making his first start against graded company but his horses have a habit of always being in the thick of things in these situations. He has already won at the distance in his last and may be very tough in here.
Dazzling Gem is the other one I like. He is also nicely bred and has won both his starts. He is in very capable hands and should be up for a big effort. I have a feeling he has enough speed to track the leader and if he has any kick he could be well positioned to take this.
1- #6 Mo Tom 5/2
2- #4 Conquest Windycity 15/1
3- #1 Gun Runner 3/1
4- #9 Dazzling Gem 12/1
Long Shots #3 Battery 10/1 and #8 Uncle Walter 20/1..don't know what happened to Walter in his last but I'm throwing that race out and using him in some exotics.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
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