Florida Derby 2016

Florida Derby

As far as I can determine, according to the hundreds of comments I've read, this boils down to a two horse race with a slight edge to Mohaymen. The question then presents itself, how to bet this race, if at all.

First of all, I like Mohaymen over Nyquist for several reasons. Even though Nyquist is very speedy, and in a match race the speed almost always wins, I don't think he will run away and hide. Being that this is Nyquist's first try  at 9f I believe he will try to conserve some energy so the fractions may not be that fast. If that is the case then Mohaymen may sit right behind him and be within striking distance. I think Mohaymen will collar Nyquist at the top of the stretch and Nyquist is then going to fade and that is where my betting strategy comes in. The difference I find between these two is that Nyquist has had two races over a mile and was losing ground at the end of each while Mohaymen has had three races over a mile and was going away at the end of them all.

This race somehow reminds me of Secretariat's Belmont with Sham. In that race, if you looked at the exacta payouts, you would find that by taking Sham out of the equation you could wheel Sec in the exactas and make money no matter who ran second as long as it wasn't Sham.

I am going to bet against Nyquist being first or second and try to dutch the race with Mohaymen on top of the exactas. I will adjust how many units on each ex to be sure to show a profit. I suppose there are other ways that could be tried in order to make a few bucks on this race but that is the way I'm going. I'm just betting that Nyquist doesn't get second.

Aside from the top two there is Fellowship who has run third to Mohaymen twice but even though trying to close he lost ground each time. If someone gets cooked on the pace he could pick up a piece.

Romans has an interesting horse in this race that has a pedigree that I really like very much. Takeittotheedge has only had one race, a sprint where he blew them away. He may be green and probably needs some racing but with his pedigree, anything is possible. I don't think any distance would hamper this guy. He showed a lot of speed in his only start and we don't know if he can be rated or not but his pedigree just seems to beg for distance. If he uses his speed he may be able to take some of the starch out of Nyquist. But, as in all races, it depends on how the race unfolds. What Romans intentions are with this horse only he knows. He's using a young local jock without stakes experience so is this a race just to see how the horse stacks up or is he actually looking for some points for the derby? Run second and your in the derby.

Majesto is nicely bred and has shown he can handle some distance but it took him five races to break his maiden although he did run third to Destin in his first race.

To conclude; None of these look to be on a par with Mohaymen, at least not yet. Nyquist also looks to be much better than the rest of the field but I just feel he's not going to come to this race with his A game and will be beat. I don't feel as if he has beaten anything really good despite winning the BC where he topped a horse he had already defeated 3 times in a row. In my opinion he is overrated and his pedigree isn't screaming distance.

1- #9  Mohaymen  1/1...the one to beat.

2- #7  Takeittotheedge  20/1...going out on a limb but I just love this guy's pedigree..I question his recent works since his last but it is what it is.

3- #4  Nyquist  6/5...he may win but I doubt it..

4- #2  Fellowship  15/1...works very fast but trainer says his speed can't be used or he will quit..

Long Shot  #3 Majesto...could fill out the super..