I've been a little slow getting started with the 3yr old horses this year. This is the first graded race this year on the TC trail and I will try to follow up on most of the graded stakes on this years trail.
As of the moment I'm not high on anything for the simple reason that I haven't invested much time with them so far. I plan on looking at them on a race by race basis and will handicap them mostly by pedigree but we also have got to see some performance because no matter how good the breeding they still must live up to their potential.
There are only a couple in this race that I feel are bred for the classics and I'm not too impressed by these. There are quite a few on the trail with a lot nicer credentials.
Scotland, although still a maiden, looks to me to have the most potential over a distance of ground. This race is just over a mile so it doesn't take a classic pedigree to get this distance but these are the ones I will keep my eye on as the distances get longer. This one has a couple of Northern Dancer mares in key positions in his pedigree that tell me he will be able to stretch out and handle the classic distances.
Lawmaker is the type that can be very good up to 9f but they usually can't get the derby distance. He may have some success along the way but I don't consider him as a contender for Derby honors.
Classic Giacnroll is very nicely bred and has a couple of crosses that say he should really love much longer distances. He's had some success in sprints already but he runs well off the pace and was probably a bit classier than those he's beat so far. I think as he meets better company he will be a stone closer and that usually hurts a horses chances against quality speed.
Noble Moon is a contender in here but his pedigree doesn't impress me but, as I've said, they don't need much breeding to get this distance.
Master Lightning has a so-so pedigree and has tried graded company twice and didn't get close. In relation to most of Pletcher's horses, this one was pretty cheap at the sales and I think he may not be ready for graded company yet.
1- #2 Scotland
2- #3 Lawmaker
3- #7 Classic Giacnroll
4- #1 Noble Moon
In the past I had been charging for my weekly newsletter but this year my Triple Crown picks will be free but any donations will be greatly appreciated.
Thanks and good luck,