Preakness Recap

   I've been a little slow getting around to this because I hadn't decided yet whether Animal Kingdom lost because he was beat by a better horse or for another reason. I have watched the rerun about 25 times and watched it in slow motion also.
   AK got off a little slow but had a chance to move up between horses but JR took him back and over to the rail. The thing is that AK had demonstrated in his previous races that he could run just off the pace. In his third race back in a 1 mile race on the turf he was only 1 length of the lead after 3/4 that went in 1:10/4. In his Spiral win he was only 2 lengths off the pace after 3/4 that was run in 1:12/2 on the poly. In his maiden win he ran 2nd for 3/4 before taking the lead. This horse has clearly shown he can run on the pace.
   In the KY derby he was a little farther back but never more than 6 lengths. Another point is that he had always run in full fields of 10-12 horses. By dropping him back 20 lengths JR just gave him too much to do. JR claims that AK didn't like the dirt in his face and that's why he kept him back so far. My question is; if he didn't like dirt in his face how come it didn't bother him when he was asked to run? Also, instead of dropping back out of the race to avoid dirt why didn't he just take him to the outside and move up closer? I have known of lots of horses over the years that wouldn't take dirt but the jocks were usually instructed to run wide to avoid it, not drop out of the race. Personally, I think JR is totally and absolutely FULL OF SHIT!
   He just can't man up to the fact that he totally misjudged the pace that started quick but just as quickly slowed down. The thing that impressed me most about AK was the fact that, in spite of a terrible ride, he damn near won anyway. Some may think I'm being unfair to JR but this guy has never been good on closers and I think he's way over rated as a jock. If he wasn't hooked up with Pletcher he would just be another ordinary jock in my book. And, he is so use to running on the front end with most of Pletcher's horses he doesn't know how to close. Alright, I'm ranting about him and you may not agree but think about this: Zenyatta won 19 in a row coming from way out of it. In order to do that the rides must be judged perfectly. She won lots of races by a head or so. Mike Smith always got her there in time and if he had been on AK the race wouldn't even have been close. Of course this is my opinion and I'll stick with it. If they ride JR back on AK in the Belmont they are crazy.
   Now that I've vented about why I think the best horse got beat I'd like to mention something else. In a previous post I had talked about the fact that there were only 10% of over 300 contenders this year that were Phalaris out-crosses and 3 had made it into the derby. There were 2 more that made it into the Preakness for a total of 5. To me that's amazing! Counting 1 that ran in the derby but not the Preakness comes out to 6 horses getting there out of thirty. That means those 6 were better than more than 270 contenders for the triple crown. Simply amazing!
   I didn't have them in exact order but I had 8 of my horses in the top 9 in the race. I didn't have Shack way up on the list but I had the 11,1,and 8 up there. This was basically just pedigree handicapping. I always had doubts about Dialed In getting the distance although he ran a decent race. One horse I knew couldn't get , not even 1 1/8 was Sway Away. I never understood all the action on a horse that never won anything. Another that I felt pretty sure didn't belong was Midnight. Oh well, I guess it's on to the Belmont which may be a very interesting race if Master Of Hounds and Alternation show up.

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My Preakness Selections and Analysis

   Last year I had the first 5 finishers in correct order and that was posted on the web. I could only hope that would happen this year.If I recall, last years race seemed a lot easier to handicap. I think the key to handicapping this race is a correct analysis of the derby.
   Trainers and jockeys read the racing form just like handicappers do. They try to decide where the speed is and how the race is going to shape up. In the derby there looked to be plenty of speed in it and almost everyone decided to lay off the pace figuring that with a fast pace the speed would fold up and set it up for a closer. They outsmarted themselves though when Shackleford went to the lead and nobody challenged him.The only jock that realized how slow they were going was Nakatani on Nehro. Nehro is normally a closer and after a half finds himself sitting second. Now there are some that contend that the pace wasn't all that slow but that the track made for the slow fractions. I don't agree with that because in my opinion Nehro would have quit if that was the case. I say the pace was extremely slow and if not for that Shackleford would have been no where to be found at the finish. In addition, there would have been a lot more horses coming at the end. All the closers laid too far off that slow pace and didn't have a chance. So much for jockeys having a clock in their head.
   If I am correct in my analysis it makes Animal Kingdom's race all the more remarkable. Had there been some pace and the front runners had backed up he would have probably have won by 10 or more lengths or more.
   I expect more pace in the Preakness for a couple of reasons. There are 3-4 in here that have natural speed and there are a few others that are going to be asked for speed. I would think most don't want to get caught with their pants down again.
Here are my selections for the Preakness; as to the pedigrees, except for the top one they are fairly close in potential.

#11 - Animal Kingdom  2/1.....this years races have seem to come down to the survival of the fittest and this one looks to be fit....has done everything right so far while the rest have had one excuse after another...nothing seems to bother him and until he does something wrong I will stick with him.

#8 - Dance City  12/1....there have been a couple horses this year that have come off very similar races and went on to win their next race...I don't think Ramon, who really knows this track, will battle for the lead with the 4 and 5...the big question is, will he be rated and will he take to stalking?

#3 - King Congie  20/1....your probably wondering how I can pick this one...a couple reasons...one is that he really should have won the Bluegrass but had a rough trip... another is that Brilliant speed, who won the Bluegrass ran a very good race in the derby finishing 7th but only beaten a nose by the 5th and 6th horses...another is that the horses coming off the turf and poly seem to moving forward on the dirt this year and this one has been working on the dirt at Belmont...another point is that, when he is right, Robby is, in my opinion, one of the best jocks riding and is a helluva improvement over Rajiv who seems to have a knack for getting into trouble unless he's on a front runner...and wouldn't it be something if Robby, who lost the ride on Animal Kingdom to JR, were to win this...talk about ironic!

#1 - Astrology  15/1....one of the better pedigrees in here...I don't know why he was so late getting started this year but has been playing catch-up...has some tactical speed and should get good position behind the leaders from the rail...knowing Mike likes to sit he may have a good kick turning for home...I also think he's finally coming around and is sitting on a big race.

#9 - Mucho Macho Man  6/1...has been steady all year and is still maturing...should be in the hunt if Rajiv doesn't screw him up.
Honorable mention: Shackleford, Mr Commons, Isn't He Perfect

Winning Pedigree Contenders

Listed below are horses I had on my pedigree list that have won a graded race this year.

Alternation
Animal Kingdom
Anthony's Cross
Archarcharch
Bench Points
Brilliant Speed
Joe Vann
Soldat
Stay Thirsty
The Factor
Travelin Man
Watch Me Go
   There were a few that I liked but had some question about their distance ability like Dialed In who I still have a question about him getting the distance. There are also some borderline cases which I take up on a race by race comparison.
   Pedigree handicapping is not an exact science by any means but I have found that when performance is considered in conjunction with breeding, a good percentage of winners can be had in these graded races.
   My next quest will be to see if I can separate the contenders for the Preakness which I will do as soon as the post positions are drawn.
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ANIMAL KINGDOM: Outside The Box Breeding?

   As the breeders of most any animal or bird can tell you; if one constantly breeds from the same source or within the same family a degeneration of the original eventually sets in. This degenerative process may not always be visible to the naked eye but exists none the less. People who look to buy pure bred dogs for instance, are always warned about being careful about who they buy dogs from. The reason is that many dog breeders start out with a pair of dogs and breed from them for many years, breeding close relatives to each other without ever introducing new blood into the kennel. The end result is that the degenerative process sets in and more and more sub par individuals are produced.

   When introducing new bloodlines into a family great care must be taken to insure that one doesn't totally destroy what had been desirable in the original. The new introduction must be as close as possible to the original.
   To better explain this I'll use an example of an experiment I once undertook with my racing pigeons. I caught some feral pigeons such as you see in the parks and under bridges. I set up a small loft for them and my object was to see what would happen when I crossed them with some good racing pigeons. I wanted to see if I could get these feral pigeons to fly like pure racing pigeons.

   I first bred some young ones from the feral family and then entered them in some races. They couldn't find their way home from 100 miles. I then crossed them with the racing birds and they still couldn't fly 100 miles. I then bred the offspring of the cross back to the racing family and finally got them to home from 100 miles and after several generations of constant breeding back to the original racing birds they were able to home from a few hundred miles but were never really any good. Another point was that I was able to eventually produce a bird that was very similar in appearance and conformation to the racing birds but the homing instinct, which is an intrinsic value, was never really there. I attribute this to the fact that I was experimenting with a totally inferior bird to begin with. When I would introduce new blood into my family of birds it sometimes took numerous tries before I found something that was a satisfactory cross.

   So what has this to do with horse racing?
   When Tesio bred Nearco he ushered in a new era in horse breeding. Through his sons, Nearartic and Nasrullah, a line, or family was started that would proceed to dominate horse racing for many years. The fashionable breeding lines today are those of Northern Dancer, a son of Nearartic and also the Raise A Native line through his son Mr. Prospector who was out of a grand daughter of Nasrullah. As the years have gone by there have been tons of horses bred from this combination and they have basically dominated the American racing scene for a long time. All one has to do is look at the pedigrees of champions over the last 50 years and this family, which is really known as the Phalaris line because he was the grand-sire of Nearco, and the g.g.grandsire of Native Dancer can be found in almost all of them.

   It has been noted in many circles that the modern American  racehorse has been getting more and more fragile over time. This has been blamed on the penchant in America to breed more for speed than stamina and thus create a smaller boned more fragile horse more prone to injury. This may have been true initially but I attribute the present day circumstances more to a basic degenerative process that has set in. Since the early success of this line of horses there have been more and more of them bred along the same lines which has in turn made all of them more and more closely related. I look at these horses as a family and it has become an inbred family to the extent that it is well into the degenerative process.

   I tend to disagree with Roman, in that, he begins to basically disregard horses that he considers too far back in the family tree. The closer a champion is in a pedigree the more weight he gives it. Unlike others, when looking at a pedigree I look at the family as a whole and am especially cognitive of where females are situated in the pedigree.

   I personally think that too much emphasis is placed on the immediate sire, especially among handicappers. Take a look at the sires of horses like Smarty Jones. His sire, Elusive Quality, was considered a miler and I remember when I was touting Smarty Jones early on, the word was that he couldn't get the classic distance because his immediate sire couldn't. But Smarty was of the family of Nasrullah by way of the great Bold Ruler who sired and grand-sired more than a couple of derby winners. There are other milers that have sired good horses able to get the classic distances. It is for these reasons that I contend that it is the family or line that carries the most weight. This is another reason that when looking at pedigrees to determine my classic contenders, I don't go into all the details of who won what and when. I just look at the family, where the females are located in relation to one another, and then wait to see some performance from them. Early on I do make some predictions based on the pedigrees. When it gets to the nitty-gritty I then weigh their performance against the potential of the breeding.

   Now, what has all this to do with Animal Kingdom? People with any knowledge of race horses know that ALL modern race horses were originally derived from 3 horses which in essence makes them all related so in reality it would be impossible to introduce new blood into the family unless they were crossed with something like a Zebra which is probably related to the horse if one goes back far enough. So what is meant by the introduction of new blood into a family?

   When a breeder attempts to breed an animal or bird a particular model is set up which is determined by the characteristics desired in the finished product. This is normally conducted through the process of culling which is the discarding of those with undesirable traits in favor of those that are closer to the desired. Through the process of elimination the goal may be reached but at the same time the path followed will naturally lead to an inbred product. This has been the result of the constant striving for a faster and faster horse in America. And, as I have stated, I feel that at this point in time the American model of the thoroughbred is well along in the inevitable degeneration of  the family that has been created.

   In order to cross this inbred family we now have, a different model must be introduced. But what are we looking for? There have been crosses of the Phalaris family with non- Phalaris horses by way of the likes of St Simon through Princequillo in order to bring some stamina into the Phalaris family. This has met with some success and may have much more success with the introduction of the German bred horses which are really bred more for endurance than speed.
   By the way, Zenyatta was of the Phalaris family with Princequillo-St Simon introduced through the maternal side of her dam's sire.

   To illustrate the point consider these facts: Out of approx 300 early classic contenders there were only 10% that were a P/NP cross. Of that meager 10% there were 3 that made it into the KY Derby, Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man and Twice The Appeal. Others of that 10% were Toby's corner, who would have made the derby if not injured, Mr Commons, who will go in the Preakness, Wilkenson, Silver Medallion and Bier Meister who were all good winners. Another interesting item is that almost all of these horses are come from behind horses that have had no trouble with distance. A rather amazing statistic don't you think? It is entirely possible that another as good as or better than Zenyatta may come along as a result of more outcrossing to that inbred line of Phalaris horses.

   What these crosses produce is what's known as HY-BRED vigor. Hy-bred vigor is similar to what happens in the plant families when different strains are crossed to make the plant and it's fruits bigger, stronger and more disease resistant. In animals it produces a bigger, more robust and healthier animal that is more resistant to disease and injury.

   Which brings us to Animal Kingdom who happens to be the result of a somewhat accidental mating. His dam was originally scheduled to be serviced by a stallion who was injured and was unable to fulfill his duties. Since a mare must be covered within a small time frame she was immediately sent to a stallion that was nearby and available and happened to be Leroidesanimaux. This sire is inbred to the Northern Dancer-Nasrullah line. The dam also has Northern dancer blood through her dam. The dam sire is Aceatenango who was a German champion up to and including 12 f. It is the introduction of this stallion into the Phalaris family that did the trick in my opinion. So, even though his sire was known as a miler, it has had no effect on AKs ability to get a distance of ground. So much for the miler business. When speaking of breeding from families or breeding only from performers, consider this quote I received  from a reader:

  This is a comment from the wife of J.J Vuillier the originator of the Dosage Theory.
The Aga Khan's best race mares have not been and presently are
not his best broodmares. His best horses usually come from the
sisters and half sisters of the great winning mare.
  
   Will the breeding of Animal Kingdom, especially if he should win the Triple Crown, usher in a new era of breeding? I have high hopes for that although it will take some years to find out as it will come about gradually and not over night. Sadly, as I am now pushing 80 years, I won't be around to see it.

It is now 2016 and I see an abundance of colts with an out cross in their pedigrees, especially the Intentionally line.

KY DERBY BETS

   This is such a wide open race it's hard to zero in. The biggest problem is not knowing how some of these that have never raced on dirt will take to it.
   As you know I handicap these type races basically by pedigree. I then try to incorporate each horse's performances to date. I don't use speed figures as a means of separation but only as a means to tell me if the horse is going to run well today. The pedigree tells me the potential of the horse if all things are equal.
   Post position and jockeys play a big part in these races and we have no way of telling how the race is going to play out as to running positions and trouble encountered. We can only hope that everyone has a good trip and nothing crazy happens.
   Everyone is always concerned, as they should be, about the speed in the race. In this race there is quite a bit of speed but there are only a couple that I expect to hang in there past a mile. In fact the couple I see with speed that could hang in there may try to rate off the early leaders.

These are my pedigree horses. What it means is that I believe these horses are bred for the distance and are always possible winners. As in the caase with Mine That Bird, he was one of 6 pedigree horses I had and was probably the least likely but he won anyway. Some that I list today may not look fast enough to win but it seems that as long as the horse is able to get the distance he has a shot.

Master of Hounds....outstanding breeding..big question, can he handle dirt?

Archarcharch....excellent pedigree...at least we know what he can do.

Watch Me Go...this may surprise many but there have been 3 derby winners in the past 13 yrs with comparable breeding...doesn't seem fast enough but one never knows.

Santiva....Another that is bred for the classic distances....has shown flashes and likes CD.

The following horses are hard to separate because there are some gray areas but the pedigrees are OK.

Dialed In
Midnight Interlude
Stay Thirsty
Brilliant Speed
Soldat
Animal Kingdom....this one could probably be placed anywhere on the list.

I will be using all of the pedigree horses in some kind of exotic play with the top two.

My selections:
#1-- Archarcharch....I know he has a bad post but I believe he is quick enough from the gate to not get buried on the rail...the next 3 outside of him are are not that quick

Bet #1---ex wheel ....1/all....all/1

Bet #2---tri part wheel all 3 positions with the 1 w/8,13,15,17

BET #3---tri...1,11,16/1,11,16/all

That's all the bets I can give because my paid clients are upset already about me blogging my picks.

Good Luck,
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KY DERBY

   I thought I'd be posting my selections tonight but there are still some nagging questions on my mind.

   The first concerns Uncle Mo and if he's going to run or not. I'm feeling he will run because I don't think there was ever anything wrong with him other than being short on condition for the Wood. It's my feeling that Pletcher, rather than admit that the schedule he had set up contributed to the lack of conditioning of Mo, concocted the story of some kind of stomach ailment. I don't ever recall him admitting to a mistake in training. At any rate I want to wait another day to see what develops with Mo.

   Another question concerned Master Of Hounds. I was hoping he would have a workout but he just jogged around the track. I know that not many give him a chance but I am giving him considerable thought for several reasons. One is, he is without a doubt, the best bred horse in the race. Another is that O'Brien is one of the best trainers in the world and I don't think he would bring him all this way if he didn't think he had a chance. In addition, he has a top American jock which I think will help the cause. MOH has had one race this year and was nosed at the wire so we know he must be in shape. I can't dismiss him, especially at 30/1.

   The third horse that concerns me is Animal Kingdom. He's only had 4 races and won 2 of them at 1 1/8 and was 2nd in his other 2 races. He's coming up to his 3rd off a layoff and looks to be sitting on a big race. The question is, how will he handle dirt since his 2 wins are on poly. He did have a nice 6f work over the track and seemed ok doing it. He has a pedigree with some German champs that I'm not familiar with and his dosage numbers are low which might be caused by unrated horses in the pedigree. He sure seems to be able to handle the distance and he's not really a deep closer but can lay just off the pace. Another thing I like about him is that both his wins were what I consider BIG wins and no other horse in the race has a big win at 1 1/8. He has a top notch trainer and his jock has won with him and is really at home at CD. Also, remember that Barbaro started on the grass and last year Paddy, who was a grass horse, ran well. So I think this horse has a lot of positives and will be huge odds.

   So, I will sleep on this another night and will post my final decision and how I'm going to structure my bets Fri. evening.
Backstretch  

MASTER OF HOUNDS Update

   The latest news is Master Of Hounds is coming and G. Gomez has got the mount in the derby. So there are a couple of questions that are answered. Now let's see if he gets a good work over the track before the derby.
    If he takes to the dirt at CD I think he will be a major contender and may win it all. Of course there are always a lot of questions regarding horses sent here from overseas but this seems to be a really good horse. I think he's been a little late in his development but he is probably the best bred horse in the race.
   The next move is to wait for the final entries and the post position draw. After that is settled I will post my bets for the derby.
   The derby aside, I think the Preakness and Belmont are really going to shape up as competitive races. There are some nice horses that won't make it to the derby and some that got started late that will be pointed to these races. Looks very interesting.

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