Thursday, April 7, 2011

Wood...SA Derby....Illinois Derby

   I won't bother with the Wood because it's an unbettable race for me. I can't go against UNCLE MO and if he wins, as he should, there's no value to be had.

   The SA Derby looks to be very competitive and there could be some value in it. PREMIER PEGASUS will be the likely favorite but I think he can be beat. He made a quick move in the San Felipe and got the jump on the other closers but this is a different field at a longer distance.

My pedigree picks:

1 - ANTHONY"S CROSS....dueled TAPIZAR for the lead for 3/4s in a fast pace...got the lead in the stretch and battled RIVETING REASON all the way to the wire and hung on in a very game effort...I think he may get another stalking position behind the leaders who should be COMMA TO THE TOP and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE...my only knock against him is he's had over 45 days since his last race.

 - JAYCITO....needed his last...dropped too far back and was left with too much to do...he does have speed and if Baffert has him cranked should be closer to the pace..SCRATCHED?

2 - COMMA TO THE TOP....Things look a little different with the scratches...very little speed now

3 - BENCH POINTS.......was another with too much to do in last...gets Rafy back in the saddle...really looks like he'll like the extra distance.

4 - MR. COMMONS....I really like his old classic breeding...NEARCO inbred....I really wouldn't be surprised if he got it all.

5 - QUAIL HILL...another that couldn't get into the race last time...good 3rd in the R. LEWIS
There are 3-4 others that could upset in here...all depends on how the race shapes up...I feel Baffert has a rabbit in here in MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE so Jaycito is sure to have some pace up front...



Illinois Derby:

1 - JOE VANN....superbly bred...was a little late developing but looks to be on a roll now.

2 - WATCH ME GO....I picked this one for 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and he won at 40/1...he's a late nominee to the KY Derby..

3 - EL GRAYLING...good race 2nd back against SHACKELFORD...

4 - ZOEBEAR...ran 2nd to TAPIZAR last year...still a maiden but is always in the hunt.

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