Risen Star 2016

The Risen Star  2016

FG  2/20/16  R11

Is this the year of the Mo? Uncle Mo has started off his stud career with a bang. This race had 4 entries sired by Uncle Mo but Laoban has opted out leaving three which happen to be the leading contenders in here.

On the other hand the ML favorite is by the very old sire line of Man O' War which has all but died out. My data base is only in my head and the recall button isn't working very well these days, but aside from Col John, the sire of Airoforce, the last really good one from this line was Gemologist who was undefeated after 5 races.

Airoforce has a nice pedigree but he has no Northern Dancer cross as did the afore mentioned two. However, he happens to be more inbred to the old line. I really like him but am a little concerned about the recent set-back he had when he was forced to skip the Sam Davis because of a breathing problem. Hopefully he's fully recovered. He's only lost once, by a neck, so until they beat him, I'll stick with him.

There are only 5 in here that I don't think can get the derby distance. It's All Relevant has a nice pedigree but is one of those with the Mr P mares dominating and I've only seen one of this type get a classic distance and he was across the pond.

Mo Tom looks like the one to beat but he's one of those that comes from out of the clouds and may be prone to getting into traffic problems. There is speed in here which may provide some pace which is what he needs.

I think Tom's Ready has been out running his pedigree and unless he shows more I don't feel like he will advance in these preps..

Uncle Walter has classic breeding and has a lot of upside to him. Although he has a bad post I think his running style is the right one and JJ will manage to get good position and get the jump on the deep closers.

I've heard some good things about Gun Runner and he has the breeding to get it done. He made need a race so, although he may make a race of it, I think he will fall a little short.

One that I really like his pedigree is Dolphus. He doesn't have any numbers yet that would put him in the thick of it but has a lot of room to improve.

1- #10  Airoforce
2-  #12  Uncle Walter
3-  #2  Mo Tom
4-  #6  Gun Runner
Long Shot  #3  Dolphus...has been scratched so I will use #5 Forevamo as long shot


Backstretch

Holy Bull Stakes

GP  Sat.  1/30/16  R8

I haven't posted anything since the KY Derby last year due to health problems. I've decided to try to cover the TC preps and the TC races this year.
I handicap these races mostly by pedigree and some of these prep races are won by horses without my standard for the classic distances. A lot of horses have talent and can win these early preps but I am interested in watching the ones with classic breeding develop along the way.

As I figured would happen again, we have a short field with only a couple of real contenders.
Mohaymen has a really nice pedigree for the classic distances and seems to have the talent to go with it. Will be strong favorite, which he should be. Tapit colt went for over 2 mil and right now looks like he may have been worth it.

Conquest Big E also has the required breeding and Casse looks like he is about to have a strong year. This is another Tapit product but so far hasn't shown near the talent of the favorite.

Greenpointcrusader may have some ability but I don't care much for his pedigree. He may be OK in the shorter distances but I don't think he will like any thing over 1 1/8.

Of the rest, Frontier Ranger and Fellowship have the breeding for the longer races but so far haven't shown they are ready to compete at this level. One of them might improve enough to get a small piece but don't look to be a threat to the top two.

1- #2  Mohaymen
2- #4  Conquest Big E
3- #5  Greenpointcrusader

Doesn't look to be any value in this race at all, not even in the exotics, so I will just watch it.
Backstretch

KY Derby 2015

As most of you know I have certain pedigree patterns I use to determine if these horses can get the classic distance of the Derby and beyond. So the first thing I will do is eliminate horses that their breeding tells me they won't get those distances. The reason I use these patterns is that a very high percentage of Derby winners have these patterns in their pedigrees.

I am eliminating EL Kabeir, Firing Line, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z. Not that these are not nice horses, but I just think they aren't Derby winning material.

American Pharoah presents me with a bit of a problem. He has a really mixed up pedigree where it is hard to tell where the influence is coming from. There are many horses bred every year with pedigrees that don't really point in any specific direction and the majority don't turn out to be much. Every now and then one clicks and is very good, so this guy, with what he has done and all the raves about him, just might be really good.

Except for the ones I have eliminated the rest of the field has patterns that I feel qualify them to win this race. There are a few that have pedigrees that I favor over the rest and there are some that look to be a little too slow to get there in time. Naturally, even if all had equal breeding, some will be faster than others.

The pedigrees I like best in here are Dortmund, International Star and Bolo. Dortmund has done all that has been asked of him so far. He is very fast and has shown a lot of grit in his races. International Star may seem a bit slow on the numbers but he looks to be getting faster with each race. He is a very determined and fearless little guy and when the races get to the classic distances it seems to be a different ball game. Bolo has a terrific pedigree but may be more geared to grass racing. He's tried dirt twice, both times running third to Dortmund, which is no disgrace. He may improve a little more.

Speaking of improvement, how about Frosted. They say he had a breathing problem which has been corrected. He really stepped up big time in the Wood and there is something else I like in his record. One of my very best pedigree horses of the year is Leave The Light On who I was really high on. LTLO won the Remsen which is a bit of a key race for the Derby but was injured and off the trail. Frosted ran a nice second in the Remsen and if he improves off the Wood will be very tough in this fracas.

Along with Frosted, Tencendur also stepped up in the Wood although I don't think the rest of the field amounted to much. Having said that, I don't think any of the preps have been more than two horse races with all those short fields. Like everybody was dodging any serious contenders.

I can't leave the little guy International Star out. His pedigree and guts tell me he belongs. Materiality may not have raced as a 2 yr old but I think he will play a part along with his stablemate Carp Diem.

So, I have two wild cards in the race. I would like to toss American Pharoah but must use him as sort of a saver. I wish I knew more about Mubtaahij other than watching him race. He has a lovely pedigree with Sea Bird as the dam sire, something quite rare in this country. He made a Hugh move in his last to win easily but there are those who question the company he beat. I would say, who did most of the others beat? As I already stated, most of these prep races were two horse races, if that.

I'm going with Dortmund to win and I will use him on top of my exotics and key him on top with American Pharoah and Mubtaahij.

1-#8  Dortmund
2- #15 Frosted
3- #2  Carp Diem
4- #12  International Star
Long Shots-#4 Tencendur
                 #3 Materiality
                 #9 Bolo

Bets- 8/15,2,12,/3,4,9
        8,18/8,18/15,2,12,/3,4,9
        8,6/8,6/15,2,12/3,4,9

Good Luck to all.

Arkansas Derby

It seems to be a forgone conclusion that with American Pharoah in this race that everyone else is running for second money. This may well be true but I don't feel as though it will have much effect on the Derby itself.

As most handicappers know, the best bet in racing is if the horse is the lone speed or is the speed of the speed and can get an easy lead without ever being pressed. In the case of American Pharoah this has been the case in his last three races. No one really knows what will happen if he's challenged for the lead as he was in his first race and ended up packing it in. However it turns out, I, for one, do not think he can get the derby distance anyway. His pedigree doesn't indicate to me an ability to get a mile and a quarter and maybe not 1 1/8 unless loose on another easy lead. So with some speed being in this I will try to beat him even if Baffert does seem to own these races.

What makes this race a little interesting is the presence of Mr. Z. He has run some really good races up on the pace against some pretty nice colts like Dortmund and Carpe Diem. If he brings one of his better races to the game we may see an upset in the making. Bridget's Big Luvy also has some speed and may help to contribute to a faster pace.

As many of you know, I have a set of pedigree patterns that I use to judge a horse's ability to get the derby distance and beyond. In most years only a small percentage of derby nominees have one of my patterns and over half of the last 25 derby winners have had one of my patterns. I don't know what's happened but this year there are an awful lot of them, in fact, most of those that already in have a pattern I like. Of course, there are some patterns that I prefer over others but any one of them is good enough to win. There are only two colts in this race that have pedigrees I don't care for as to distance ability and they are American Pharoah and Win the Space. All the others are bred well enough to get the 1 1/4.

1- #7  Far Right  9/2..has a great pedigree..is a true grit colt and seems to run best when fresh.

2- #5  Bold Conquest  20/1...just seems to be coming up to this race ready for a big effort.

3-  #4  Madefromlucky  6/1...Pletcher horses always seem to fire in preps.

4-  #1  The Truth Or Else  15/1...has a very nice out crossed pedigree..I've liked him all year but I think the trainer has his form cycle backwards..he does have a super work since his last...should handle any distance if they get him right.

Long Shot  #2  Mr.Z...could put the pressure on and make it a 2 horse race with Pharoah.

I am going on the premise that Mr. Z will try to hook American Pharoah. Z gets a jock who is on fire right now at this track and knows what to do. I may be way off base and Pharoah will run away and hide again but if one thinks that's what will happen then it's useless to even bet the race.

LA and FL Derbys

La Derby:

Let me first say; just because I don't care for a pedigree this doesn't mean the horse can't win. All it means is that I just don't know which horses in the pedigree are going to have the most influence on that particular foals ability. Sometimes a horse with kind of a mixed up pedigree turns out to be really good but more often than not they are not good at the classic distances.

Most of the colts in this race have classic type breeding but not all will live up to their pedigrees. There are some that will turn out to be really nice horses but just not at the very best level.

International Star is very nicely bred with a perfect alignment of the Halo mares in his pedigree. In addition, having a sire line of Raise A Native combined with a dam sire line of Northern Dancer is a big plus. The Ramseys have been looking for a derby winner for a long time and, I'm not saying this horse is the derby winner, but I think this is the best shot that they have had.

Mr. Z is a nice out cross with Ribot and the Bold Ruler lines. I'm not a speed figure guy so I'm more concerned with the breeding and who has been meeting who. Mr. Z has given a good account of himself against the likes of Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Far Right, etc. He has been right up on the pace in most of his races but hasn't been able to hang in for the win. They are taking the blinkers off and he has a new jock in Kent D. who usually likes to come off the pace in hopes of conserving some energy. He has a very good foundation and I look for him to be very tough in this.

Keen Ice has a nice pedigree and showed in the Remsen that he can handle this distance and it wasn't a bad race against Leave The Light On who may have been one of the leading contenders if not hurt. He seems to be coming up to this race in good order and may be flying at the end.

War Story has the breeding for this but may handicap himself with the bad starts he's prone to. Was all out in last and may be tailing off a little.

A Day in Paradise has a really nice pedigree with a nice out cross. He's been quite steady being in the money in 4 of 5 races but has yet to meet any graded horses.

1-#9  International Star  3/1...on a roll and has guts

2-#2  Mr. Z  4/1........very little separating him from the top choice

3-#7  Keen Ice  5/1...should get a piece at the wire

4-#6  War Story  4/1...I don't see too much more being squeezed out of him.

Long Shot  #5  A Day in Paradise..went head to head with War Story and hung in.

Lots of speed in this so there should be a lively pace. We may see some really dumb moves by the jocks so hold on to your hat.
I threw out the #1 which might be a mistake but I had several reasons to do so and I'll just have to eat it if he wins.

FL Derby:

There are only 5 of these that have my type pedigree so I won't go too far afield looking for the winner. I would really like to beat the chalk but it looks to be a tall order.

Upstart is bred nicely and has won his last two impressively even though he was DQd in his last. Looks to be a tough colt and the only question I have is how slow his last race was. Maybe he is regressing a little.

Itsaknockout is another of Pletcher's beauties and had a rough time of it in his last against Upstart. He's only had 3 races so has plenty of room to improve.

Pletcher again with Materiality. This year may be the best crop I've ever seen having all these superbly bred youngsters and Pletcher and Baffert have most of them as usual. Materiality has only had 2 races which were total blowouts. He got a really high speed figure which is impressive being that it was only his second start and it was at 9f. but I think the competition was suspect.

Ami's Flatter is by the same sire as the favorite but I am inclined to think he has a little more potential in his pedigree. His last race was the first with lasix and he showed a big improvement. Also, he ran second to Carpe Diem who I think is probably better than any of these. Another little item is the jock. I don't know the real reason for JJ taking this mount when he probably could have had Pletcher's horse Stanford in the La Derby and Stanford ran second to Materiality.

Quimet has, in my opinion, the best pedigree of the bunch. He broke his maiden in a claimer and somebody may have missed the boat on that. Zito hasn't had a real good one in a long time but if this guy wakes up it would be a different story. We know anything is possible in horse racing so if this colt would somehow come alive here I would consider him having a shot to win the big one just off his breeding.

1- #1 Ami's Flatter  8/1...going out on a limb here..even if he qualifies for the derby, unless he runs really big he's headed back to Canada.

2- #4  Itsaknockout  2/1...has enough room to improve to take this.

3- #9  Upstart  8/5...may very well win but I'm trying to beat him.

4- #7  Materiality  7/2..I just don't know if he's for real or not.

Long Shot  #5  Quimet  20/1..just off his pedigree.

Spiral Stakes

These prep races have been terrible in my opinion and we are looking at more of the same in the rest of them. There have been nothing but short fields with short priced favorites and maybe, just maybe, another possible winner.

Compared to the top contenders on the derby trail this group looks to be a little on the slow side. Most of these have been running on the weeds and it's hard to say who will make a big improvement when finally getting a chance on dirt. At this time I'm really more concerned with their breeding and how they might handle the classic distances than I am with how fast they might be.

There are only a few of this bunch that have the type of pedigree that I look for. One of the nice pedigrees is owned by Royal Son who, with his good Beyer in his last, will more than likely be the chalk. He only has had one bad race which is hard to explain because it was against a field made up of a lot of maiden winners but I'll just write that off as one of those races that can't be explained.

I liked the race that Metaboss ran when winning the El Comino. He was really motoring at the end of that one and it was at the same 9f as this so we know he can get the distance. In addition, he also has one of the better pedigrees in this race.

Conquest Typhoon was beaten by Metaboss but he set and pressed the pace in that one and had some of the starch taken out of him. I don't think Smith will put him on the pace in this because there is some speed here and it would be smart to try to let the other speed wear down the favorite. He also has a decent pedigree so I don't think distance will be the deciding factor for him.

The pedigree I like best of these belongs to Dubai Sky. He's won 3 in a row on the grass so the question is, how will he take to the synthetic? He has shown he is versatile by winning on and off the pace. I would have liked to see him have a prep for this but he has been training well so it is what it is. He also gets lasix for the first time and I guess that could also help.

This track has a pretty good run to the first turn at this distance so I don't think the post positions will make that much difference. I'm thinking that Royal Son will leave again along with a couple others but he should put them away before too long. They might take something out of him but he should hang tough so I think someone will have to be not too far back and get the jump on the rest of the field to beat him.

1- #12 Dubai Sky 8/1

2- #1  Royal Son 7/2

3-  #11 Metaboss 4/1

4-  #9  Conquest Typhoon 5/1

Gotham/ Tampa Bay Derby/ San Felipe

The Gotham


At this point in time I don't think any of these look like derby material. There are a couple that have pedigree patterns which have been known to win the big one but they will need to improve a whole bunch.

1- #8  Tencendur...was beaten by the favorite in last..was sitting in a stalking position and made a bid but was kind of erratic in the stretch..was racing in short spurts but was coming good at the very end...may improve enough to beat these at decent odds.

2- #4  El Kabier...is good at this distance but I don't think he can get the classic distances..he should be tough in this.

3-  #1  Don'tbetwithbruno...has a decent pedigree..this is a step up so will have to race more to his potential.

4-  #3  Classy Class..another that can handle just over a mile, as most can, but isn't bred for the longer distances of the classics.

Tampa Bay Derby

This race is a real brain teaser for me. I don't suppose it looks that tough to those that play strictly by performance and speed figures. The thing that I find most difficult is that in most of these prep races there are horses with great looking pedigrees that haven't exactly shown their best stuff yet. Then there are others that have run really good races but their breeding doesn't say they can get the classic distances.

Since this is all about winning the derby I am inclined to go with the better breeding and hope I am on one of those that all of a sudden show their mettle. And bag a big long shot to boot.

The two choices in this are Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight and I have questions about both. I just feel like the BC race was a fluke where the race totally fell apart on the front end. I think Texas Red made a long run from way back and they just kept coming back to him and I feel that Carpe Diem got basically the same kind of trip. I can't disregard Carpe because he does have a nice pedigree, very nice works and Pletcher knows how to crank them up.

I am up in the air with Ocean Knight's breeding. It's not the type pedigree I like but it is also one of those that are very good once in awhile. I thought the Sam Davis was a pretty weak field and this one was banged down to chalk off of one race, a maiden win in a sprint.

1- #3  Carpe Diem...has a nice pedigree, good works and a nice win in the Brdrs Fut where he ran down Mr Z who is a tough customer.

2-  #7  Great Stuff...very nice pedigree, still a maiden but has great potential...has been running wide and needs a better trip.

3-  #2  Ocean Knight...looks good but I feel he is vulnerable.

4-  #1  Divining Rod...decent breeding...with Super Colossal out he may be the one to catch.

Long shot-  #4  Ami's Flatter..well bred..first lasix...could improve enough for a part.

The San Felipe

The derby winner may very well be in this race. Two of my top 6 pedigrees are in this race and I'm looking for one of them to win. It was about 3-4 years ago that I posted on a forum that I thought the next Triple Crown winner would be sired by Big Brown, that is, if we ever get another. The reason I made that prediction was because of the type of pedigree Big Brown has. I feel that he would be a match for many, many mares so would have a chance to sire a great one.

Dortmund, being a son of Big Brown, looks to have a good shot at the derby and maybe the TC. He has a super pedigree and is sure living up to it. He is 4 for 4 and has shown a lot of true grit. His last was hard fought to the wire and was his first off a layoff so I hope he doesn't get a little bouncy.

Bolo is another of my top pedigrees of the year but has running on the lawn. I am anxious to see how he performs on dirt. He doesn't have to win, just make a good showing. If he doesn't do well I guess we can cross him off as he will probably stick to the weeds.

1-  #3  Dortmund...may get tested in this..

2-  #7  Bolo...big question is, how he will handle dirt..pedigree and works say it shouldn't be a problem..could take the top spot.

3-  #2  Ocho Ocho Ocho...hard to read pedigree but so far has done no wrong.

4-  #6  Prospect Park...doesn't have a classic pedigree but this isn't the derby either.

Long Shot  #9  Sir Samson...has a nice pedigree..needs to conserve some energy...blinkers off may help