Saturday, April 11, 2015

Arkansas Derby

It seems to be a forgone conclusion that with American Pharoah in this race that everyone else is running for second money. This may well be true but I don't feel as though it will have much effect on the Derby itself.

As most handicappers know, the best bet in racing is if the horse is the lone speed or is the speed of the speed and can get an easy lead without ever being pressed. In the case of American Pharoah this has been the case in his last three races. No one really knows what will happen if he's challenged for the lead as he was in his first race and ended up packing it in. However it turns out, I, for one, do not think he can get the derby distance anyway. His pedigree doesn't indicate to me an ability to get a mile and a quarter and maybe not 1 1/8 unless loose on another easy lead. So with some speed being in this I will try to beat him even if Baffert does seem to own these races.

What makes this race a little interesting is the presence of Mr. Z. He has run some really good races up on the pace against some pretty nice colts like Dortmund and Carpe Diem. If he brings one of his better races to the game we may see an upset in the making. Bridget's Big Luvy also has some speed and may help to contribute to a faster pace.

As many of you know, I have a set of pedigree patterns that I use to judge a horse's ability to get the derby distance and beyond. In most years only a small percentage of derby nominees have one of my patterns and over half of the last 25 derby winners have had one of my patterns. I don't know what's happened but this year there are an awful lot of them, in fact, most of those that already in have a pattern I like. Of course, there are some patterns that I prefer over others but any one of them is good enough to win. There are only two colts in this race that have pedigrees I don't care for as to distance ability and they are American Pharoah and Win the Space. All the others are bred well enough to get the 1 1/4.

1- #7  Far Right  9/2..has a great pedigree..is a true grit colt and seems to run best when fresh.

2- #5  Bold Conquest  20/1...just seems to be coming up to this race ready for a big effort.

3-  #4  Madefromlucky  6/1...Pletcher horses always seem to fire in preps.

4-  #1  The Truth Or Else  15/1...has a very nice out crossed pedigree..I've liked him all year but I think the trainer has his form cycle backwards..he does have a super work since his last...should handle any distance if they get him right.

Long Shot  #2  Mr.Z...could put the pressure on and make it a 2 horse race with Pharoah.

I am going on the premise that Mr. Z will try to hook American Pharoah. Z gets a jock who is on fire right now at this track and knows what to do. I may be way off base and Pharoah will run away and hide again but if one thinks that's what will happen then it's useless to even bet the race.



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