Newsletter #61 Recap

Newsletter  #61  Sat. 3/9/13

I have been pedigree handicapping for a lot of years and although it's not a precise method of handicapping, I rely on pedigrees to tell me which horses should be able to get the distance of the TC races. In most years, when handicapping one of the prep races, there were only a couple of horses in each race that seemed to have a pedigree with the potential to get the longer distances. This year however, I have never seen so many horses with really good pedigrees.

Even if all the horses on the TC trail had exactly the same pedigrees, some would be better than others, they can't all be equal. A lot depends on the ability of the trainer and other factors that may decide which ones run their best on any particular day. So naturally, I will be wrong a lot more than I'm right, as it is with all handicapping. I just try to be right enough times on some horses that may be over looked or be able to eliminate some short odds horses that can't get the distance.

TAM  R10  The Tampa Bay Derby  G2

This is a race where I can't really eliminate any one of them at this distance but will try to stay with those I think can get the Derby distance which is tough because they all have such nice breeding.

Verrazano will no doubt be the favorite because he seems to be freakishly fast. Many times a horse will blow them away on the front end and record a very high speed figure but I've never been able to understand how this happens because many times they are never able to do it again unless they happen to get a set of circumstances exactly the same. His pedigree, because of the placement of some particular mares, could go either way. He may have distance limitations or may not but at this distance he should have no problems if he's the real deal. Hard to go against him at this time.

Falling Sky has a super nice inbred pedigree and I don't think this distance is a factor but the post position is. I have the feeling this horse will rate off the pace a little and if he can get decent position he has a good chance. Although it looks like he was getting tired at the end of his last, Dynamic Sky never did get past him, not even on the gallop out. If he tries for the lead and is forced wide on the turn he could be in trouble.

Dynamic Sky has some nice races and with Joel in the saddle should move up. Joel has been riding all over the country and does great wherever he rides and is on a roll. If someone takes the starch out of the top 2 he stands a good chance. Also looks to be sitting on ready.

Park City is another Pletcher well bred colt who is 2 for 2 and could make some noise in here. Prado looks like he's getting back to his form of yesteryear and could bring this one from out of the clouds.

I like the pedigree of Purple Egg and his unbeaten record is nothing to sneeze at. The reason I don't have him contending is that he's had some kind of ailment and scratched out of a couple races. He also hasn't worked in a couple of weeks but who knows, he may be ready.

Java's War has shown some good signs on the turf and the poly but his one race on dirt wasn't so hot although he had a bad start in that race. That KJC race was on the slow side but I recall another horse that came out of that race who also had trouble trying to close on that slow pace and came back with a good race.

If the chalk doesn't win this we could see some nice numbers light up the tote. There are others in here that deserve mention, in fact, I don't think winning this is beyond the scope of any of them. Just have to make a stand somewhere.

1- Verrazano
2- Falling Sky
3- Dynamic Sky
4- Park City
Long Shot- Java's War

SA  R7  The San Felipe  G2

The west coast gang doesn't look as strong this year as in prior years. As usual, Baffert has a few that look good but are as yet unproven against stakes company. On paper this looks to be a 2 horse race but one never knows with these youngsters. Only 8 entered so this doesn't look to be a defining race but we will be on the lookout for a better field in the SA Derby.

Goldencents has a pedigree that could carry him a long way this year. His only defeat was a second against the top 2 year old of last year, Shanghai Bobby. He has a lot of speed but also showed he could rate a little in his last when he tracked a speed ball and took over to draw away. He could take the lead if he gets it easy enough or he might track Flashback. Either way, he doesn't figure to be very far off the pace.

Flashback is one of Bafferts better bred 3 yr olds this year and has had no trouble in his only two races. He led all the way in his last to win by a big margin but he also set a pretty soft pace so we will find out today how he stands up under pressure which he's sure to get from Goldencents.

Hollendorfer has another decent one this year in Hear the Ghost but his contenders are usually just a cut below the best. This one has kind of an unusual pedigree with 2 mares being of the old Man O' War line and I almost never see something like that. His pedigree tells me he should be able to run all day so we will see what the stretch out does to help him.

Kochees is another with nice papers and tried chasing the highly regarded Super Ninety Nine in his last. He could show some improvement here and get a piece of the action.

Omega Star is a nicely bred CA horse and will get a big test today. I don't think he can handle the likes of the top two but may hang in for a minor award.

1- Goldencents
2- Flashback
3- Hear the Ghost
4- Kochees
Long Shot- Omega Star

RECAP

Verrazano looked good winning this but on the other hand it seemed to me to be a pretty slow pace. In addition, aside from Falling Sky, it looked to be a pretty weak field. Verrazano is a very nice colt but I still think his pedigree could go either way as far as distance is concerned. It takes a different kind of horse to get the Derby distance.

This race was also a little more proof that the KJC race was very odd with that slow time recorded. Java's War is another horse that came out of that race and ran big so I'm wondering how good Uncaptured will do in his next couple of races. I do think that this was a weak field and want to see what Verrazano does against some of the better colts.

Out in CA the San Felipe turned into a speed duel and I kind of think this was due to the long lay off by Goldencents who was just too fresh. I saw a lot of talk about how the jocks screwed up on Flashback and Goldencents but it looked to me like they couldn't hold those two horses back. They set a pretty wicked pace and set it up for a closer but the pedigree of Hear the Ghost, the winner, told me he should run all day and I think he is one of those types that will relish the 1 1/4 of the Derby.

It will probably be the last races of the preps, when the leading contenders finally tangle, before we really get an idea of who can do what. I think the Rebel next week will have a more evenly matched group and something good will show up there.
Backstretch

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