Rebel Stakes

   This looks to be a really competitive race unlike the other preps so far this year. It looks to be somewhat of a guessing game with the entry of the CA horses. I don't understand the way the CA preps have been run with the horses coming out of the gate hell-bent -for-leather. Amazing times they have run.
   This race is only 1 1/16 miles so we are not close yet to the Derby distance. Horses don't need a real distance pedigree to win at the distances that have been run so far which means that some that may excel at the classic distances get eliminated because of lack of earnings. This is why I handicap these races almost entirely by pedigree and if most of them don't get the earnings, so be it.
   I usually find a couple that are brilliant enough to win the shorter races but have the pedigree potential to get the classic distances. The type of breeding I like has won the derby like 7 of the last 10. This is not to say that other type pedigrees don't win but I have touted a lot of derby winners in this way.
   To get to the Rebel; there are pedigrees in here that I like. ARCHARCHARCH, ALTERNATION, THE FACTOR and J W BLUE are the ones I like.
   In the case of ARCH I feel he is going to get better as the distances get longer. ALTERNATION and J W BLUE both have nice distance pedigrees but they haven't gotten out of allowance company yet but their breeding suggests to me that they should improve as they move forward.
   THE FACTOR presents somewhat of a problem. I really think he's bred to go this distance and maybe a little longer, but only if they find a way to harness his speed. I will have to use him in this race for the reason that he may be the lone speed in the race.

 ARCH...I really like him to win...must not get buried on the rail.

THE FACTOR ....I will use him in top spot also in case he steals it...whoever tries to run with him may also get cooked.
I will put these 2 on top of:

ALTERNATION
J W BLUE
J P's GUSTO
SWAY AWAY
ELITE ALEX.....I hear he may be scratched.

1,6/1,2,5,6,9,10,13
As an afterthought, there may be a token rabbit in here to try to run with THE FACTOR. It's just a wild thought, but possible.
Good Luck,
Backstretch