Newsletter # 8 2/24/12.....Recap

Newsletter # 8 - 2/24/12

Risen Star Stakes  FG  R11  2/25/12

It looks like we have a stick out in this race. Normally I try to beat this kind but he looks like a cut above these. I've only got a couple in here with derby type pedigrees and the one to beat is El Padrino. I'm not too fond of his pedigree but it looks as good as anything in this race.

Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but his dosage figures are quite high. In fact, I can't recall a Derby winner with dosage numbers that high. Can't discount him though because this race is a long way from the Derby distance.

Z Dager has a nice old time pedigree with a lot of stamina in it and I was surprised that he was so close to the pace last time. He got blocked pretty good in the stretch and had Sellers made a move to the rail when he had the chance he would have won with no problem. Will be dangerous with a good trip.

Shared Property has an ok pedigree but once again he draws outside and being a deep closer he's going to have to find a way to work a trip.

Optimizer has had a lot of chances but can't seem to get the job done. Another one that needs a perfect trip.

Afford doesn't have much in the way of breeding but I feel like he's going to get a piece of the action here.

1 - #7 El Padrino

2 -  #3 Afford

3 - #5 Z Dager

4 - #1  Mr. Bowling

El Padrino won as expected but he didn't do it easily. He may move forward off that race but I want to see more when facing some quality front runners. Not to say that Valeski is a bad horse but I don't think he's derby material. El Padrino may be derby material but not off this race in my opinion. All in all, a decent effort against a weak field.


GP  R11  2/26/12  Fountain Of Youth

 Having made speed figures of my own there are a few things I found out. One is, I never use a figure taken on an off track. Another is that there is not and never will be anything exact in a horse race except the weight a horse carries. Speed figures are a tool for measuring condition but they can't tell you how fast the horse will run today. Also, I'm a firm believer that horses are distance oriented and speed figures are not transferable from one distance to another. As you can see, I'm not a fan of Beyers, especially when he can go back and adjust his figures after the fact. I think if you want to use speed figures you can't do any better than those found in chapter 10 of Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping. It will put you in the ball park and that's all you can ask of speed figures. The rest is dependent on condition and what happens during the race.

Having said that I am going out on a limb and not picking Algorithms to win. One thing is that his pedigree doesn't meet my Derby profile. That's not to say he won't win again along the way but, unlike the majority of handicappers, I do not consider him as a Derby winning prospect. His last race with the big Beyer was in the slop and he only had to beat Hansen who ran himself into the ground. The second half of that race was kind of slow and I don't think Algorithms caught Hansen, Hansen just backed up. As witness, My Adonis closed 15 lengths in the last half.

Naturally, Union Rags has got to be the horse to beat off his record. He was only beaten once and that was by Hansen in the BC and I think that was the race of Hansen's life and I don't really expect him to repeat that performance unless he's in against an inferior field and can steal it. Rags also has the profile of a Derby horse. How close is he to top form is something only he can tell us and right now he's not talking.

Discreet Dancer has a pedigree that can make a derby horse but his type of pedigree has a low percentage considering how many are bred along those lines. He wired the field in both starts and although the pace was not fast in his last, he finished very fast on his own. It doesn't look like anyone can run with him early and if he's not pressured will be very hard to catch.

Casual Trick is a nicely bred horse and does have some speed. He stumbled at the start last time and was rushed up and then it looked like JR eased him out of it. A clean break could see him sitting in a nice spot just off the pace. He couldn't get by Reveron in his next to last so maybe he lacks a closing punch.

1- #5  Discreet Dancer

2-  #7  Union Rags

3-  #2  Algorithms

4-  #1  Neck' N Neck

Over at GP I thought Discreet Dancer would show some high speed but didn't. He might have but JR backed him way down and put everyone else in position to make a charge.

Of course, there was nobody going to beat Rags as he simply demolished them. I know it was a weak field but the way he did it sure makes it look like he's the one to beat from here on in. One thing I did overlook was that News Pending who ran second at long odds ran a good second against Exothermic who is one of my undefeated derby contenders.

Gotham up next...
Backstretch

Newsletter # 7 Recap

I didn't do very well this week. In the El Camino I really thought Nakatani would try and rate Handsome Mike but he went head and head with a 90/1 shot in a fast pace duel and gave it up late. He did the same in the Cash Call with Drill and hung in til very late stretch. He has a very nice pedigree for a distance and I still think he has a future if they can rate him a little.


I liked Lucky Chappy also and he damned near won it but I was up in the air with the #1 so bypassed him which was a mistake.


The CA race wasn't much of a race with only 4 going in it. I don't think that race proved anything one way or another.


This was my newsletter:



Newsletter #7 - 2/18/12


El Camino Real  GG  Race 8


This race always presents a problem because of R. Baze who has won 6 of the last 7 editions. Let's face it, no matter who he rides, he can't be discounted. 


In this race Baze is riding the filly Lady Of Fifty, who happens to be one of three horses in here that meet my Derby profile. Hollendorfer, in addition to the filly, has the favorite Russian Greek who is a stone closer. I would think, with the filly being a front runner, the strategy will be to send her and if she's not challenged she may wire them. On the other hand, if a pace duel developes it would be to Russian Greeks advantage.


The other 2 that have my Derby profile are Handsome Mike and Lucky Chappy. Lucky is another strong closer that will be looking for a fast pace to run into. Daddy Nose Best looks to be another closer looking for the race to collapse.


I find 6 of the entries have speed so a fast pace almost seems assured. However, I really don't think it will be the stone closers winning here. I have the feeling that the filly will rate and with her speed she could be in a good spot turning for home and you can usually bet that Baze will be in the right spot.


I like Handsome Mike in this race if he sits just off the pace. He has a lot of speed but I think Nakatani will try to rate him off the pace. He tried that last time in the Sham but he was up against some very quick ones at a shorter distance. In the Cash Call he got into a brutal speed duel and gave it up very late in the stretch against some very good horses. If nobody wants the lead he can take it and be hard to catch.


Here's how I see it;


1- #7  Handsome Mike


2- #10  Lady Of Fifty


3- #6  Lucky Chappy


4- #4  Russian Greek 




San Vicente


SA  R7  2/19/12


I really shouldn't bother with this race because I see no possible value in it. I'm taking a peek at it because for some reason there's been a handful of winners of this race that have gone on to win the Derby.


Creative Cause looks to be the class of this field. Baffert keeps trying with Drill and he seems to go backward. I'm still on the fence with the pedigree of Creative Cause because, although nicely bred, he doesn't exactly fit my profile for Derby horses. Let's Get Crackin has the right pedigree but just hasn't shown enough ability so far.


Since this race is only 7f breeding isn't going to account for much anyway. I'll just watch this one.


1- Creative Cause


2- Let's Get Crackin


3- American Act

Newsletter #5 Sat. 2/4/12

For those that thought $2.50 per week was too much for the newsletter, here's what you missed so far.

In the Smarty Jones I gave 4 horses and 3 of them ran 1-2-3

In the Holy Bull I gave 4 and 3 of them ran 1-2-3

In the LeComte I gave 4 and one of them won.

Today;

In the Withers I gave 4 and one scratched and I had the winner w/a 44/1 shot second.

In the Sam Davis I gave 4 + 2 long shots and 1 of the LS won and beat my top 2.

In the R. Lewis I gave 4 and 2 of them ran 1-2 with a 44/1 shot on top beating my first choice for an $800. ex.

I got sidetracked a little in the Sam Davis because instead of sticking with my pedigrees all the way I got a little influenced by the trainers and put 2 in that I shouldn't have. All in all, a helluva nice day!

Newsletter #5  Sat.  2/4/12

The Withers

AQU  Race 9  2/4/12

This race is sort of a rerun of the Count Fleet that Alpha took. In that race I had Alpha and Speightscity as my pedigree horses and they are still my best bred in this race. 

If you recall I said before the Count Fleet that Alpha's race in the BC was hard to understand. He had run second to the leading contender Union Rags in his previous race and yet he got no betting action at all in the BC which led me to believe that something was wrong and someone knew it. Alpha redeemed himself in the Count Fleet and looks to be the one to beat in here.

Speightscity has a beautiful pedigree but it's my belief that his training has been faulty. It looks to me that his form is ass- backwards in that, when he looks like he should run good he doesn't and vise-versa. I'm going to give him another chance for the money and maybe he will wake up. Perhaps he will never run to his pedigree but there is still time for him to turn it around.

Swag Daddy has an interesting pedigree. He's got a nice record running in NY state bred races but moves up here. What's interesting about him is his dam sire line is sort of almost extinct as far as there being any sires to carry on the line. It's unusual nowadays to see a pedigree with Damascus so close up. This is the line from the great Teddy and as I said, Teddy's sire line has all but disappeared except for a few in South America. I think this one may be able to run all day and I'll be interested to see if he has the talent to compete with the best.

Hakama has a nice pedigree being inbred to Norther Dancer on the sire's side and also having Damascus on the tail. He has a few things going for him; he has a lot of speed and his breeding says he should be able to carry it a long way, has a win over the track and I recall a good one recently taking this route.

This race may come down to whether anyone can catch Hakama and it might be Alpha.

1- Alpha

2- Hakama

3- Swag Daddy

4- Speightscity

The Robert B. Lewis

Santa Anita  Sat. 2/4/12

This race could be a rerun of the Cash Call Fut. We have 4 of the first 5 finishers back in this race. It seems to me that the CC race must have had a very fast pace regardless of what the numbers might say. There were 2 horses, Drill and Handsome Mike, dueling for the lead all the way into the stretch. What makes me think they were going pretty fast is that Majestic City, who is very fast, couldn't keep pace with those two.

The first 5 finishers all came from off the pace. Laison was only a few lengths back and got the jump on the others. So, I suppose the question is, what kind of pace will we see this time. There are 3 horses in here with a lot of speed so we may get a duel but I have an idea that only one is going to really shoot for the lead. We may also see a closer or two try to get closer to the pace.

There are several in this one with nice pedigrees and the ones I like are, Empire Way, Liaison, Sky Kingdom and I'll Have Another. Since this race looks like any one of them could win I'm just playing by pedigree. Just looks to be a very contentious race and not a place to place a big bet. Best to fool around with some exotic boxes.

1- Empire Way

2- Sky Kingdom

3- Liaison

4- I'll Have Another

The Sam Davis

Tampa Bay  Sat. 2/4/12

This looks to be the most interesting race this week. There are a lot of possibilities in this race and maybe a chance for a big exotic. There are some nicely bred horses here but I think the best one at this time is Reveron although I don't really think he will get the Derby distance. As I've often said, there are a lot of pedigrees that may be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but encounter trouble trying to get that extra 1/8 and that's what I think will happen with Reveron.

Prospective is one that looks to be able to handle the classics and has had a nice tune up by winning the Pasco. He may have a little trouble here with the outside post. He does have a little speed but the jock is going to have to work a trip to get him into contention. State Of Play has a nice pedigree but I would like to see some dirt form before I make a decision on him. He does have some speed and was hampered by the extreme outside post in the BC but if he takes to dirt he might be a threat.

The real speed in here is Pletcher's colt Ecabroni and we know that he has his charges ready at this time of year. I don't like his breeding for the classics but this is not a classic and speed is always dangerous. I expect to see him get a lot of action but I want some value before I back one stretching out against some good ones.

Burning Time is an interesting colt with the Damascus dam sire line. He should love a distance and be very durable but this race may be a tad short for him. Has a big late, late move so could fill the bottom of the exotics.

Battle Hardened is another that is well bred and has already ran a good one at 1 1/8. Neck'n Neck ran second last time to highly regarded Discreet Dancer so should be a contender off his form. I'm still undecided about his pedigree but again, this race is not a classic. This race is usually won by something running up near the front but there may be a battle for the lead so we can't discount a closer winning this one.

1- Reveron

2- Prospective

3- Neck'n Neck

4- Ecabroni

Long shots - Battle Hardened and Burning time

Newsletter #4 1/28/12

The Holy Bull

This early in the preps and at the shorter distance, pedigree doesn't make the difference. When I look at the pedigrees I'm looking for horses that have the potential to get the classic distances. In addition to the potential they must have athletic ability. 

There are 2 in here, My Adonis and Fort Loudon that have classic pedigrees but they haven't show any exceptional talent yet. Fort Loudon ran up a string of victories but they were in state bred races. He's only had one other race and that was against Hansen in the BC. It really wasn't a bad race considering the field and he had a bad post position and was wide around the turn. He seems to be a game horse and may do better coming off the pace .

My Adonis has a very nice pedigree and was looking good until his last race where he battled on a very quick pace and folded. Any horse can be beat if allowed to get into a speed duel so I have to throw out his last.

Of course Hansen is the one to beat. He's never been headed so we really don't know how fast he is and I don't think he will let anyone head him in this race. The only knock I have against him, and it's not for this race, is that his type pedigree with the Raise A Native G dams can be brilliant to 1 1/8 but I don't like them beyond that. But, one never knows when dealing with high speed. We won't know what he's made of until he gets challenged.

Then we have the 2 Bernardini colts and it's hard to fault either one at this distance. Consortium was narrowly beaten by Algorithms but lasix for the first time might make a difference. Then we have Silver Max who is always right there at the finish but his races have all been on the grass so I take this race as a move up in class for him.

Taken altogether, I think this could be a very contentious race so I'm going to shoot for some value:

1- #4 Hansen

2- #3 My Adonis

3- #5 Fort Loudon

4- #6 Algorithms

Recapping the Holy Bull it's kind of fuzzy as to why the race went the way it did. Hansen stumbled at the start and this could of been the cause of his being rank but I really don't think so. Maybe it was the track condition that did it but I'm more inclined to think it was a combination of the stumble, the track and jockey error. Ramon, in my opinion, is overly aggressive on a lot of horses. I know he wins a lot on the front end but, except in races away from NY, he usually has the best horse. 

Perhaps I'm way out of line with my thinking but I happen to be one that gives a lot of consideration to jockeys. I have been watching races for over 60 yrs starting before the days of TV and reruns and have learned that jockeys are no where as good at judging pace as they are given credit for. That 22 second quarter did Hansen in. On the other hand, he could have been a little short on condition or even possibly over trained and left his best in a fast work. We won't know until he runs again and see if he rates kindly and also how he will do on a fast track.

Algorithms looks to be a good one and hasn't done anything wrong yet. I don't have him having what I like in a classic pedigree but I may be way off base with that. Can't fault him so far.

My Adonis tangled with Consortium at the start and dropped way off the pace. In fact, he was 20 lengths back at the half and closed about 15 lengths in the last half. He does have speed and I was expecting to see him sitting just off the leaders but he was left with way too much to do but ran a game race, He has a nice classic pedigree and still might be heard from in later races.

Backstretch.

Sires of Derby Winners

I don't wish to appear arrogant or to say that I know more than anyone else, but it seems there are very few experts that have been able to point out KY Derby winners with any consistency by pedigree analysis. In my case, on various websites, I have touted Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Big Brown, and Animal Kingdom. I liked hard Spun even though he couldn't quite do it. I didn't pick him to win but I had Mine That Bird on my derby list. Having those horses on my lists as horses that could get the derby distance, I feel that my approach has more than a little merit.

Having said that, I'd like to point out a few statistics; Since 1940 there have been only 5 sires that have sired more than one derby winner. In 40 and 45 Sir Gallahad sired the winners. The years of 41 and 47 saw Blenheim II do the trick. Bull Lea sired the winners in 48,52,57. Bold Bidder's sons did it in 74 and 79. Halo colts won in 83 and 89 followed by sons of Maria's Mon in 2001 and 2010.

In assessing the value of these stats one must keep in mind that in years past a very few, relative to today, breeding operations controlled the best stallions and had full control as to what mares would be covered. In fact, during my formative years in racing, Calumet Farms won no less than 7 Derby's between 1941 and 1958. We have to take into account that in the fifties there were only about 5-7,000 foals born in a year, while today, there are 25-30,000 born and I think there was a year in the recent past when over 37,000 were foaled.

This means that the pool of stallions available today is huge compared to years past. When Nearco sired Nearartic and Nasrullah a totally new era was ushered in. Through Northern Dancer, probably the most influential sire of modern times, and his siblings and offspring a whole line or family was established. Another stallion who made his mark is Mr Prospector, and since his dam was sired by a son of Nasrullah, we have Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector basically in the same family. Since that time the offspring of those two stallions have been just about completely inbred.

Half the horses at the yearling and 2 yr old sales have pedigrees dominated by Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector. In fact, I would estimate that 90% of all the good stallions standing today can be traced back to Phalaris by way of Nearco. Since these stallions are all virtually of the same blood lines, I contend that it doesn't make too much difference who the stallion is. A derby winner can be sired by just about any one of them.

Why do I say that? Because breeding operations try to keep tight control of the mares that are covered by their stallions. The money is in the stud side of the game simply because a stallion can cover as many as 150 mares in a year but a mare can produce only one foal. Years ago, when the breeding was controlled by a select few, those breeders would not let a foal leave the farm if it wasn't a good one. Every effort is made to insure that their stallions are only seen in the best light. And yet, they all know that the success of the stallion is determined by the mares he covers.

Breeders with mares try to send them to stallions with the best racing records that are affordable. Nobody breeds from stallions who were no good on the track, some were just better than others but that doesnt make them better at stud. For example; Nashau was a champion and yet never sired much in the way of runners but his daughters did. The great Mr Prospector was out of a Nashua mare. Big Red himself was not much as a sire but his daughters dropped some really good ones.

The pipeline to the foal is through the females. I won't go into genetic codes and such here but it is my firm belief that it is the females AND where they are placed in the pedigree that makes the difference. When I look at a pedigree I don't look at individuals and their racing records. There have been many good horses that were out of unraced mares. I don't favor any particular sires because there are any number of them that can produce a Derby winner. If just about any decent stallion is put on a mare that puts the females in favorable positions to transfer the best qualities to the foal a champion can be had.

At any rate, I'll leave it at that for now and give you my list of Derby prospects. I have dropped some because of various reasons. Some seem destined for the turf and others are just not racing to their potential. It's still early and revisions will have to be made as others appear on the scene.

Classic Pedigrees in alphabetical order;

Alpha
Done Talking
Dullahan
Empire Way
Fly Lexis Fly
Fort Loudon
Gemologist.....minus the other, this is my pick to win the derby as of now.
Junebugred
Motor City
My Adonis
Power...........if this one comes to the party he would be my pick right now.
Reckless Jerry
Seve
Souper Speedy
Union Rags

In addition are some that I think can be brilliant up to 1 1/8 but doubt the derby distance.

Currency Swap
El Padrino
Hansen
Hunt Crossing
Reveron

This is only a partial listing. There are some that may be off the trail or whatever because I am not up to date on a lot of things. As they weed themselves out a lot will be dropped and some picked up. These are selected strictly on pedigree but when playing performance must be considered.

From Newsletter...The LeComte

The LeComte

The first prep stakes on the derby trail at the Fair Grounds is Sat. 1/21/12. It looks to be a slightly better field than the Smarty Jones in that there are more in here that have already run in a graded race.

I found some nice pedigrees in here, nothing earth shattering mind you, but some good ones. One thing in common with the Smarty race is that the winner of that one was out of a mare by a son of Northern Dancer and the one I like in here is bred the same way.
Going down the line up; Ted's Folly is on a 6 race roll and sure knows how to win. I don't often see a pedigree like his. Inbred to the Nearco line everywhere but the tail G. Dam which is an out cross with the Damascus line and he is down from one of my favorites, Teddy. I don't have much to reference with out crosses with the tail g.dam. The ones I like are crossed out with the dam sire line but this horse is showing he likes to win and that Teddy line tells me he should be able to run all day and into tomorrow. The question is, is he fast enough, especially at this distance in this company.
Mr Bowling has a nice pedigree but it's probably just a cut below the best types. He was highly regarded in the Iroquois but was beaten by Motor City who is a colt I'm kind of high on this year, a very strong closer.

Exfactor is also on a roll having won 3 straight, one of which was a G3, but they were all sprints. A nice pedigree for this distance but I find that a lot of nice colts with a lot of Mr Prospector females in their pedigree are often brilliant up to 1 1/8, so is dangerous in here.

Dan And Sheila has a pedigree type that is erratic for me. On occasion I will see a really good one but at this point I don't know where this one is going. Started out with a win at a mile which is always a good sign but I'll hold off on this one for awhile.

Z Dager looks like he's bred for the marathons. He also just broke his maiden at a distance so he could be a runner also.Seven Lively Sins has breeding I like. Those Bold Ruler females turn me on and I like that combined with the Mr P dam sire line.

Hammers Terror seems like a nice one but I find his pedigree hard to decipher so even though he's won 2 in a row I don't know where he's going from here.

Capetown Devil has the kind of pedigree that when they are good they can be very good. Evidently they were not too high on him initially because he made his first start in a claimer. I wouldn't know for sure but am inclined to think he surprised the connections. He has since moved up and stretched out and improved with each race. He seems to be fast and getting faster although he hasn't done it against graded company yet. He may be over matched here but I can recall other good ones that started in a claimer. One that comes to mind was the great filly Silver Spoon who made her first start in a claimer and ended up running 4th in the derby and had a stellar career.

  
So, I have several reasons to like this one; the pedigree is good, he looks to be fast and one of the first rules I learned in racing was not to bet against an unbeaten horse.

  
Shared property started out like a house on fire and in his second start won a grade 3 where he out kicked some decent ones, including Motor City. Wasn't that far back in the BC passing 4 horses in the stretch. I'm not entirely sold on his pedigree and I usually don't care for horses that run farther off the pace as they move up in class. He should be coming at the end but I think his post and lack of early speed may give him a little too much to do.

1- #10  Capetown Devil... jock will have to work a trip...may have enough tactical speed to get position.

2- #6  Seven Lively Sins...like the breeding...has speed and tried off the pace in last..may improve off that.

3- #5  Exfactor...has been sprinting but pedigree suggests he can handle this distance...on a roll.

4- #4  Mr Bowling....next to last was nice...been working like a demon.

5- #2  Dan And Shelia...good potential...may need a little more seasoning..but this is Pletcher.

2b and 11 will be coming and a lot depends on what the speed does.

Long Shot  #3  Ted's Folly

Recap

   Regardless of what the numbers might say, (I haven't seen any yet), I think the pace in this race was slow. I say this because of two reasons. One is that the 2 horses running up front looked to be kind of cheap to me but the #1 actually held on pretty good to the end. The other is that I really didn't think the #2b, Z Dager would be that close to the pace unless Pletcher gave orders to send him because the other half of the entry, Dan And Shelia was reserved well off the pace.

   I also think Sellers could have won the race had he ducked to the rail as they turned for home. For some reason the head on view is not available for that race but it looked to me that there was an opening on the rail for a brief moment but I could be wrong about that.

   Shared Property made a good run but hung near the end and was passed by Z Dager once that one found room. The horse that impressed me most was Dan And Shelia with that big closing kick. He ran into trouble in the first turn and was at the rear for most of the race. If the pace was slow, as I think it was, he made a great run and will probably appreciate a longer distance.

   Because of a lack of quality speed in this race I don't feel the race as a whole was very impressive.

Smarty Jones from Newsletter

   This is what I sent out in my newsletter yesterday concerning the Smarty Jones race:

The Smarty Jones

For some years now the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park have been making their mark on the Triple Crown picture. Of course we know that Smarty himself took this route to the derby and we had some good ones like Archarcharch follow in his footsteps.

   This race is just the first in a series but perhaps one will step up and make his/her presence felt in the coming months. Of course all eyes are on the FL and CA races where the top dogs are right now, especially in the barns of Baffert and Pletcher, but make no mistake, some good ones can come from Oaklawn and the Fairgrounds.

   This is an interesting race in that a filly will probably be the favorite. There are some nicely bred 3 yr olds in here but so far I haven't seen any performances to match the pedigrees.

   As for the performance side of it, the filly On Fire Baby has already nailed down two grade 2 filly races in a row although her Beyer's are not very high. She always seems to bring her best game to the track and has really been working well.

   Another who looks really tough to me is Optimizer who had started out on the turf winning his maiden race and followed that up with a good second in a grade 2 on the grass. Then tried the poly in the Breeders Fut. and was a close third to Dullahan in that grade 1 but then had a bad start in the Breeders Cup. Came back in a grade 2 at CD and was only beaten a couple lengths by Gemologist who I have as one of my top derby picks right now. The only knock I have against him in this race is that all his races have been at 1 1/16 and he drops back to a mile here which wouldn't be too bad except that he likes to come from way out of it.

   The two mentioned above are the only ones in here that have had a decent showing in a graded race,so as far as what they have shown so far they should be the ones to beat.

   The horses that have pedigrees that I like are Junebugred, Prince Cheval, Copus, Hard Nosed, Reckless Jerry and King Coral. The problem is that none of those have stepped up to the plate yet. There are a couple that have run well but against much cheaper company and against statebreds.

   One that does look interesting is Junebugred. A nicely bred colt that went off as chalk in his first race and didn't run bad and came back to win at AQU at this distance. Has changed trainers and Bravo comes in for the ride. Looks like a lot of room for improvement with this guy.

   Having 6 very nicely bred colts in this one could make for a surprise but at this point I've got to temper pedigree with performance to this point.

1- # 6 Optimizer....has faced the best of this group so far...got closer to the pace last time and might be able to shorten up here.

2- # 10 On Fire Baby...seems to be the one to beat.

3- #2 Junebugred...might be a lot of upside with him.

4- #12 Reckless Jerry...hasn't run a bad one yet but post may hinder.

The rest of the race is up for grabs.

Recap:

   A very clever ride by Bravo slipping through on the rail and saved ground all the way. This one may have a future and I'd love to see him take Joey to the derby.

   Reckless Jerry was full of run and the jock worked a good trip despite the bad post. Is very steady and has yet to throw a clunker.

   I'd say that the connections of the filly, who ran a game race, were a little too ambitious. Keep her with the fillies because there are an awful lot of really well bred colts this year.

   Optimizer just didn't fire. He probably needs more distance but I think he has run some decent races simply because he was a little more advanced in his development than most of his opponents. 
   And once again pedigree proves to be best!