Saturday, March 28, 2015

LA and FL Derbys


La Derby:

Let me first say; just because I don't care for a pedigree this doesn't mean the horse can't win. All it means is that I just don't know which horses in the pedigree are going to have the most influence on that particular foals ability. Sometimes a horse with kind of a mixed up pedigree turns out to be really good but more often than not they are not good at the classic distances.

Most of the colts in this race have classic type breeding but not all will live up to their pedigrees. There are some that will turn out to be really nice horses but just not at the very best level.

International Star is very nicely bred with a perfect alignment of the Halo mares in his pedigree. In addition, having a sire line of Raise A Native combined with a dam sire line of Northern Dancer is a big plus. The Ramseys have been looking for a derby winner for a long time and, I'm not saying this horse is the derby winner, but I think this is the best shot that they have had.

Mr. Z is a nice out cross with Ribot and the Bold Ruler lines. I'm not a speed figure guy so I'm more concerned with the breeding and who has been meeting who. Mr. Z has given a good account of himself against the likes of Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Far Right, etc. He has been right up on the pace in most of his races but hasn't been able to hang in for the win. They are taking the blinkers off and he has a new jock in Kent D. who usually likes to come off the pace in hopes of conserving some energy. He has a very good foundation and I look for him to be very tough in this.

Keen Ice has a nice pedigree and showed in the Remsen that he can handle this distance and it wasn't a bad race against Leave The Light On who may have been one of the leading contenders if not hurt. He seems to be coming up to this race in good order and may be flying at the end.

War Story has the breeding for this but may handicap himself with the bad starts he's prone to. Was all out in last and may be tailing off a little.

A Day in Paradise has a really nice pedigree with a nice out cross. He's been quite steady being in the money in 4 of 5 races but has yet to meet any graded horses.

1-#9  International Star  3/1...on a roll and has guts

2-#2  Mr. Z  4/1........very little separating him from the top choice

3-#7  Keen Ice  5/1...should get a piece at the wire

4-#6  War Story  4/1...I don't see too much more being squeezed out of him.

Long Shot  #5  A Day in Paradise..went head to head with War Story and hung in.

Lots of speed in this so there should be a lively pace. We may see some really dumb moves by the jocks so hold on to your hat.
I threw out the #1 which might be a mistake but I had several reasons to do so and I'll just have to eat it if he wins.

FL Derby:

There are only 5 of these that have my type pedigree so I won't go too far afield looking for the winner. I would really like to beat the chalk but it looks to be a tall order.

Upstart is bred nicely and has won his last two impressively even though he was DQd in his last. Looks to be a tough colt and the only question I have is how slow his last race was. Maybe he is regressing a little.

Itsaknockout is another of Pletcher's beauties and had a rough time of it in his last against Upstart. He's only had 3 races so has plenty of room to improve.

Pletcher again with Materiality. This year may be the best crop I've ever seen having all these superbly bred youngsters and Pletcher and Baffert have most of them as usual. Materiality has only had 2 races which were total blowouts. He got a really high speed figure which is impressive being that it was only his second start and it was at 9f. but I think the competition was suspect.

Ami's Flatter is by the same sire as the favorite but I am inclined to think he has a little more potential in his pedigree. His last race was the first with lasix and he showed a big improvement. Also, he ran second to Carpe Diem who I think is probably better than any of these. Another little item is the jock. I don't know the real reason for JJ taking this mount when he probably could have had Pletcher's horse Stanford in the La Derby and Stanford ran second to Materiality.

Quimet has, in my opinion, the best pedigree of the bunch. He broke his maiden in a claimer and somebody may have missed the boat on that. Zito hasn't had a real good one in a long time but if this guy wakes up it would be a different story. We know anything is possible in horse racing so if this colt would somehow come alive here I would consider him having a shot to win the big one just off his breeding.

1- #1 Ami's Flatter  8/1...going out on a limb here..even if he qualifies for the derby, unless he runs really big he's headed back to Canada.

2- #4  Itsaknockout  2/1...has enough room to improve to take this.

3- #9  Upstart  8/5...may very well win but I'm trying to beat him.

4- #7  Materiality  7/2..I just don't know if he's for real or not.

Long Shot  #5  Quimet  20/1..just off his pedigree.






Friday, March 20, 2015

Spiral Stakes



These prep races have been terrible in my opinion and we are looking at more of the same in the rest of them. There have been nothing but short fields with short priced favorites and maybe, just maybe, another possible winner.

Compared to the top contenders on the derby trail this group looks to be a little on the slow side. Most of these have been running on the weeds and it's hard to say who will make a big improvement when finally getting a chance on dirt. At this time I'm really more concerned with their breeding and how they might handle the classic distances than I am with how fast they might be.

There are only a few of this bunch that have the type of pedigree that I look for. One of the nice pedigrees is owned by Royal Son who, with his good Beyer in his last, will more than likely be the chalk. He only has had one bad race which is hard to explain because it was against a field made up of a lot of maiden winners but I'll just write that off as one of those races that can't be explained.

I liked the race that Metaboss ran when winning the El Comino. He was really motoring at the end of that one and it was at the same 9f as this so we know he can get the distance. In addition, he also has one of the better pedigrees in this race.

Conquest Typhoon was beaten by Metaboss but he set and pressed the pace in that one and had some of the starch taken out of him. I don't think Smith will put him on the pace in this because there is some speed here and it would be smart to try to let the other speed wear down the favorite. He also has a decent pedigree so I don't think distance will be the deciding factor for him.

The pedigree I like best of these belongs to Dubai Sky. He's won 3 in a row on the grass so the question is, how will he take to the synthetic? He has shown he is versatile by winning on and off the pace. I would have liked to see him have a prep for this but he has been training well so it is what it is. He also gets lasix for the first time and I guess that could also help.

This track has a pretty good run to the first turn at this distance so I don't think the post positions will make that much difference. I'm thinking that Royal Son will leave again along with a couple others but he should put them away before too long. They might take something out of him but he should hang tough so I think someone will have to be not too far back and get the jump on the rest of the field to beat him.

1- #12 Dubai Sky 8/1

2- #1  Royal Son 7/2

3-  #11 Metaboss 4/1

4-  #9  Conquest Typhoon 5/1

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Gotham/ Tampa Bay Derby/ San Felipe

The Gotham


At this point in time I don't think any of these look like derby material. There are a couple that have pedigree patterns which have been known to win the big one but they will need to improve a whole bunch.

1- #8  Tencendur...was beaten by the favorite in last..was sitting in a stalking position and made a bid but was kind of erratic in the stretch..was racing in short spurts but was coming good at the very end...may improve enough to beat these at decent odds.

2- #4  El Kabier...is good at this distance but I don't think he can get the classic distances..he should be tough in this.

3-  #1  Don'tbetwithbruno...has a decent pedigree..this is a step up so will have to race more to his potential.

4-  #3  Classy Class..another that can handle just over a mile, as most can, but isn't bred for the longer distances of the classics.

Tampa Bay Derby

This race is a real brain teaser for me. I don't suppose it looks that tough to those that play strictly by performance and speed figures. The thing that I find most difficult is that in most of these prep races there are horses with great looking pedigrees that haven't exactly shown their best stuff yet. Then there are others that have run really good races but their breeding doesn't say they can get the classic distances.

Since this is all about winning the derby I am inclined to go with the better breeding and hope I am on one of those that all of a sudden show their mettle. And bag a big long shot to boot.

The two choices in this are Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight and I have questions about both. I just feel like the BC race was a fluke where the race totally fell apart on the front end. I think Texas Red made a long run from way back and they just kept coming back to him and I feel that Carpe Diem got basically the same kind of trip. I can't disregard Carpe because he does have a nice pedigree, very nice works and Pletcher knows how to crank them up.

I am up in the air with Ocean Knight's breeding. It's not the type pedigree I like but it is also one of those that are very good once in awhile. I thought the Sam Davis was a pretty weak field and this one was banged down to chalk off of one race, a maiden win in a sprint.

1- #3  Carpe Diem...has a nice pedigree, good works and a nice win in the Brdrs Fut where he ran down Mr Z who is a tough customer.

2-  #7  Great Stuff...very nice pedigree, still a maiden but has great potential...has been running wide and needs a better trip.

3-  #2  Ocean Knight...looks good but I feel he is vulnerable.

4-  #1  Divining Rod...decent breeding...with Super Colossal out he may be the one to catch.

Long shot-  #4  Ami's Flatter..well bred..first lasix...could improve enough for a part.

The San Felipe

The derby winner may very well be in this race. Two of my top 6 pedigrees are in this race and I'm looking for one of them to win. It was about 3-4 years ago that I posted on a forum that I thought the next Triple Crown winner would be sired by Big Brown, that is, if we ever get another. The reason I made that prediction was because of the type of pedigree Big Brown has. I feel that he would be a match for many, many mares so would have a chance to sire a great one.

Dortmund, being a son of Big Brown, looks to have a good shot at the derby and maybe the TC. He has a super pedigree and is sure living up to it. He is 4 for 4 and has shown a lot of true grit. His last was hard fought to the wire and was his first off a layoff so I hope he doesn't get a little bouncy.

Bolo is another of my top pedigrees of the year but has running on the lawn. I am anxious to see how he performs on dirt. He doesn't have to win, just make a good showing. If he doesn't do well I guess we can cross him off as he will probably stick to the weeds.

1-  #3  Dortmund...may get tested in this..

2-  #7  Bolo...big question is, how he will handle dirt..pedigree and works say it shouldn't be a problem..could take the top spot.

3-  #2  Ocho Ocho Ocho...hard to read pedigree but so far has done no wrong.

4-  #6  Prospect Park...doesn't have a classic pedigree but this isn't the derby either.

Long Shot  #9  Sir Samson...has a nice pedigree..needs to conserve some energy...blinkers off may help