Newsletter #62 Recap

Newsletter #62  Sat. 3/16/13

OP  R10  The Rebel  G2

Looks like another nice full field with lots of horses in good form. I just hope it's a nice clean race with no trouble.

Oxbow is still my number one pedigree of the year but he gets another bad post. If it hadn't been for ; bad post positions, running hard and wide early and two misjudged premature moves he could have won his last four in a row. I had commented somewhere on line that I thought Lukas should get another jock to ride the Ox, somebody like Mike Smith and lo and behold, Mike gets the mount. If he can get good position just off the pace without getting used up early I think he will take this.

Super Ninety looks to be a real nice one and has a nice pedigree, not great, but good enough. I am always leery of horses that get away on the lead as he did last time, especially in the slop. He did beat Code West in his next to last and that one came back to run big in the Risen Star. I would like to dismiss Ninety Nine but there are too many ifs with him so must leave him in, especially the way Baffert wins at this track.

Delhomme is another I'd like to throw out but am too undecided about him. He is nicely bred, as with most of Pletcher's horses. but the question is, will he rate. He tried to take them all the way last time and tired and the two that beat him came back to run lousy races next time, although there were excuses made for both. I'm putting him in but he is very vulnerable.

Den's Legacy has been very steady and is usually a little short with his closing bids. This race has enough speed in it to cook some of them so he has a chance at a minor prize.

Treasury Bill also has a nice pedigree and with his stable mate full of speed and maybe acting as a rabbit, he will probably try to lay back and come at the end. Don't know if he's good enough but Talamo makes the trip to ride so they must feel pretty good about his chances.

Carve is one that Asmussen claimed out of a winning race and came right back to win his next. Has a nice pedigree and looks like he wants more distance. This might be the claim of the year if he keeps getting better.

I suppose the key to this race is what happens with all that speed on the outside. Delhomme, with his good speed and nice post should be where he wants to be and may have a little advantage . I think Title Contender will be gunning early along with Ninety Nine and Ox so there's a chance that the rest may be kind of squeezed going into the first turn. I really think the most important factor will be, what kind of spot Smith can work out with Ox.

1- Oxbow
2- Delhomme
3- Super Ninety Nine
4- Treasury Bill
Long Shots- Carve and Den's Legacy

RECAP

It was a very strange day at OP. There were 6 sprint races which are one turn races and 5 routes around two turns. In all the sprints the winner was either on the lead or close to the pace. In all the 2 turn races the winner came from the back of the pack. So what was going on around that first turn? Were they running through sand dunes or what?

Once again, Oxbow moved too soon and couldn't hold on at the end. Mike Smith said he didn't want to move that early but was forced to. Why, I don't know, because he had good position laying fourth or fifth but moved before the 1/4 pole. I am going to look at this race as an oddity in the future. I think Oxbow ran what could have been a winning race once again and I also think he is actually getting better with each race and will still be a major factor going forward.

All the front runners in the Rebel and all the other routes on the card ran into a brick wall so I think there was something strange going on. I wouldn't discount some of these speed horses in future races.
Backstretch

Newsletter #61 Recap

Newsletter  #61  Sat. 3/9/13

I have been pedigree handicapping for a lot of years and although it's not a precise method of handicapping, I rely on pedigrees to tell me which horses should be able to get the distance of the TC races. In most years, when handicapping one of the prep races, there were only a couple of horses in each race that seemed to have a pedigree with the potential to get the longer distances. This year however, I have never seen so many horses with really good pedigrees.

Even if all the horses on the TC trail had exactly the same pedigrees, some would be better than others, they can't all be equal. A lot depends on the ability of the trainer and other factors that may decide which ones run their best on any particular day. So naturally, I will be wrong a lot more than I'm right, as it is with all handicapping. I just try to be right enough times on some horses that may be over looked or be able to eliminate some short odds horses that can't get the distance.

TAM  R10  The Tampa Bay Derby  G2

This is a race where I can't really eliminate any one of them at this distance but will try to stay with those I think can get the Derby distance which is tough because they all have such nice breeding.

Verrazano will no doubt be the favorite because he seems to be freakishly fast. Many times a horse will blow them away on the front end and record a very high speed figure but I've never been able to understand how this happens because many times they are never able to do it again unless they happen to get a set of circumstances exactly the same. His pedigree, because of the placement of some particular mares, could go either way. He may have distance limitations or may not but at this distance he should have no problems if he's the real deal. Hard to go against him at this time.

Falling Sky has a super nice inbred pedigree and I don't think this distance is a factor but the post position is. I have the feeling this horse will rate off the pace a little and if he can get decent position he has a good chance. Although it looks like he was getting tired at the end of his last, Dynamic Sky never did get past him, not even on the gallop out. If he tries for the lead and is forced wide on the turn he could be in trouble.

Dynamic Sky has some nice races and with Joel in the saddle should move up. Joel has been riding all over the country and does great wherever he rides and is on a roll. If someone takes the starch out of the top 2 he stands a good chance. Also looks to be sitting on ready.

Park City is another Pletcher well bred colt who is 2 for 2 and could make some noise in here. Prado looks like he's getting back to his form of yesteryear and could bring this one from out of the clouds.

I like the pedigree of Purple Egg and his unbeaten record is nothing to sneeze at. The reason I don't have him contending is that he's had some kind of ailment and scratched out of a couple races. He also hasn't worked in a couple of weeks but who knows, he may be ready.

Java's War has shown some good signs on the turf and the poly but his one race on dirt wasn't so hot although he had a bad start in that race. That KJC race was on the slow side but I recall another horse that came out of that race who also had trouble trying to close on that slow pace and came back with a good race.

If the chalk doesn't win this we could see some nice numbers light up the tote. There are others in here that deserve mention, in fact, I don't think winning this is beyond the scope of any of them. Just have to make a stand somewhere.

1- Verrazano
2- Falling Sky
3- Dynamic Sky
4- Park City
Long Shot- Java's War

SA  R7  The San Felipe  G2

The west coast gang doesn't look as strong this year as in prior years. As usual, Baffert has a few that look good but are as yet unproven against stakes company. On paper this looks to be a 2 horse race but one never knows with these youngsters. Only 8 entered so this doesn't look to be a defining race but we will be on the lookout for a better field in the SA Derby.

Goldencents has a pedigree that could carry him a long way this year. His only defeat was a second against the top 2 year old of last year, Shanghai Bobby. He has a lot of speed but also showed he could rate a little in his last when he tracked a speed ball and took over to draw away. He could take the lead if he gets it easy enough or he might track Flashback. Either way, he doesn't figure to be very far off the pace.

Flashback is one of Bafferts better bred 3 yr olds this year and has had no trouble in his only two races. He led all the way in his last to win by a big margin but he also set a pretty soft pace so we will find out today how he stands up under pressure which he's sure to get from Goldencents.

Hollendorfer has another decent one this year in Hear the Ghost but his contenders are usually just a cut below the best. This one has kind of an unusual pedigree with 2 mares being of the old Man O' War line and I almost never see something like that. His pedigree tells me he should be able to run all day so we will see what the stretch out does to help him.

Kochees is another with nice papers and tried chasing the highly regarded Super Ninety Nine in his last. He could show some improvement here and get a piece of the action.

Omega Star is a nicely bred CA horse and will get a big test today. I don't think he can handle the likes of the top two but may hang in for a minor award.

1- Goldencents
2- Flashback
3- Hear the Ghost
4- Kochees
Long Shot- Omega Star

RECAP

Verrazano looked good winning this but on the other hand it seemed to me to be a pretty slow pace. In addition, aside from Falling Sky, it looked to be a pretty weak field. Verrazano is a very nice colt but I still think his pedigree could go either way as far as distance is concerned. It takes a different kind of horse to get the Derby distance.

This race was also a little more proof that the KJC race was very odd with that slow time recorded. Java's War is another horse that came out of that race and ran big so I'm wondering how good Uncaptured will do in his next couple of races. I do think that this was a weak field and want to see what Verrazano does against some of the better colts.

Out in CA the San Felipe turned into a speed duel and I kind of think this was due to the long lay off by Goldencents who was just too fresh. I saw a lot of talk about how the jocks screwed up on Flashback and Goldencents but it looked to me like they couldn't hold those two horses back. They set a pretty wicked pace and set it up for a closer but the pedigree of Hear the Ghost, the winner, told me he should run all day and I think he is one of those types that will relish the 1 1/4 of the Derby.

It will probably be the last races of the preps, when the leading contenders finally tangle, before we really get an idea of who can do what. I think the Rebel next week will have a more evenly matched group and something good will show up there.
Backstretch

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Newsletter #60 Recap

Newsletter  #60  Sat. 3/2/13

AQU  R10  The Gotham G3

Wow, another full field. If nothing else, the new point system has brought us some full fields of competitive horses. There are some in here that are bred for the classics and a few that I'm undecided about.

We've got four that are coming out of the Withers that was won by Revolutionary, who I like because of his pedigree, but I don't think there was much in there for him to beat. Some of them had been beaten by Vyjack who looks like a main contender in this.

I'm sure Overanalyze will be the favorite off his last with that big Beyer number. I am suspicious of that figure because on the same day, Uncaptured who beat him in the Iroquois, came back to win in a very slow race at CD. I just don't see this horse running as fast as the figure says he did in his last. Also, he nosed out Normandy Invasion who was no ball of fire as the chalk in the Risen Star. I'm undecided about his pedigree because it's not the kind that I favor. He's been on the shelf for three months or more and may be a little short because his normal schedule is to race once a month.

Vyjack has some really nice breeding and hasn't taken a bad step yet in racking up 3 in a row. Doesn't it seem strange for the jock that has steered him to all his victories to be taken off? The owner thinks that Rosario will handle the horse better than Velasquez. The owner of Vyjack is a guy who hit a P6 for 3 mil and decided to get himself a good horse. He paid 100 Gs for him at the sale because he liked his pedigree and his workout. He says the reason for the change in jocks is that Vyjack is an aggressive horse who they decided to geld because of his head strong tendencies. He feels that the horse was fighting Velasquez and that Joel would be a better fit.

Mc Laughlin has 3 in this and 2 of them are owned by Darley. I think one of them will be scratched, probably Now and Then. He and the other half of the entry, Transparent have very nice pedigrees and have been racing without lasix. Darley may have been one of the owners that decided to do without lasix and I also think they may have their eye on the UAE Derby. One must always give serious consideration to horses from this stable and a very live jock.

Mc Laughlin also has Elnaawi who is coming off a nice maiden win and gets lasix for the first time. I'm not too fond of his bloodlines but this isn't the derby. Horses who have won over the track have a little edge and usually run well.

Sky Captain scratched out of the Fountain of Youth last week because of a bad post and probably to dodge Violence. He was beaten last time by Cerro who didn't fare too well in the FOY but his chances were killed in that one when he tried to chase that fast pace which isn't his style. Casse has a few nice ones in Uncaptured, Northern Lion and Dynamic Sky in addition to this one. Sky Captain has a very nice pedigree and looks to be sitting on a big race but the question is, how will he take to this track?

Of the 4 colts coming out of the Withers any one of them could get a piece of this race but I happen to really like the pedigree of the maiden, Champion Boy. I don't think it's ever a good thing to throw maidens in the deep end of the pool by jumping them up against graded winners but he wasn't badly beaten and looks like he will improve off his last so I'll give him a shot.

I've got to leave somebody out but it looks like anything is possible in this race. Overanalyze has a class edge because of his running good in graded races but I think he will be odds on and I'm going to try to beat him.

1- Sky Captain
2- Vyjack
3- Overanalyze
4- Elnaawi
Long Shot- Champion Boy

Recap

This was a rough run race. At the start the second place finisher, West Hills Giant, came over and crowded the whole field and especially Elnaawi who had a terrible trip and I think he would have been an easy second with a clean trip.

Another with a bad trip was Champion Boy, the maiden. He was shut off at the top of the stretch when he looked to be making a move, got going again and was blocked again and couldn't regain his momentum. He has a pedigree with a lot of potential and I think he will be heard from down the road somewhere. I also think he's been badly handled.

If you recall, I had mentioned, in another post, that many speed horses develop a terrific closing kick when reserved off the pace and allowed to retain all that energy they had been using early. Vyjack is a perfect example of that. Normally up on the pace he was allowed to laze near the back and came on like a train in the stretch. There are a few others on the trail that might do the same if they take to being rated.

I had also said that I thought the Derby would be won by one of the out crossed horses on the Derby trail. Vyjack is a very nice example of an out crossed horse, with the Princequillo/Double Jay lines introduced through the maternal G Dam and then brought back into the Nearco line to produce what I like to call Hybrid Vigor. There are a few of these types of pedigrees out there like, Demonic, Flashback, Oxbow, Revolutionary and Vyjack. These are all at the top of my Derby list, and unless I've missed one somewhere, one of these will win the big show in my opinion.
Backstretch

Newsletter #59 Recap

Newsletter #59  Sat.  2/23/13

Starting this week things should get really wild. I say this because, unlike the past several years, we have so many contenders that want to run up front. The list is pretty long with horses like Falling Sky, Flashback, Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby, Uncaptured, Verrazano, Super Ninety Nine, and some others that have plenty of speed and like to set the pace with a couple of them being able to also sit just off the pace. There are more coming along that haven't been in one of the preps that also want to run up front.

At the moment, we have no idea what's going to happen when they begin to meet one another. I would suspect that those that have shown an ability to rate would have an advantage but there may be one of them with enough speed to run them all off their feet as Big Brown did. It will be very interesting to see what kind of strategy will be employed by the trainers and jocks.

We have a few good ones that like to run well off the pace like Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary who may benefit from some fast paced races so any thing may happen and there are surely some surprises in store.

I will still rely on their pedigrees to steer me to some winners but they will need to show some ability because we are having some mighty big Beyers being run this early and likely to see even better as we get, what looks like, some very fast paced races.

Before I get into these races I want to offer you a handicapping tip. There have been several races where there was a horse that got out front and ran away with the race. In many cases the horse is so dominate that he totally wipes out any horse that tries to challenge him. Remember this, and this is a reason one should never use a speed rating for a horse that had speed and tired and then dropped out of the race, when a horse gets really tired they stop to a walk. An exhausted horse may be passed by the worst plug in the race. In these instances, do not deceive youself into thinking that one of the late runners was actually closing.

For instance, in the Southwest Stakes last week, Super Ninety Nine totally destroyed that field. He went out on the lead and 2 horses, Big Lute and Always in a Tiz, both made a run at him. He put them away and they were so wiped out that they just dropped completely out of the race. A couple of longshots ended up in the money, not because they were closing, but the dead horses came back to them. So don't be fooled by what looks like a good closing effort when the horse passes dead ones.

Here's a web site where you can watch the re-runs of the prep races and see for yourself what happens in those situations. http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/preps/schedule

GP  R11  The Fountain of Youth

This is the first 50 point race in the Derby series and, as I had thought, we have a nice field of colts. There are a couple of graded winners in here but it's still a little early for the top contenders to be meeting each other.

Violence is at, or near the top of every body's list as he might very well deserve to be. He has a very nice out crossed pedigree and it's my feeling that a horse with this type pedigree will nail down the Derby. He is 3 for 3 including a G2 and a G1 win. I feel sure he will be odds on in this race and it will be a hard decision to go against him. The only knock I have against him is that in his last, the Cash Call out west, was that there were 4 horses vying for the lead in a fast paced race and they came home a little slow. He had a perfect trip sitting just behind the leaders and over took the tiring front runner Kapcori who actually held on pretty good. Oxbow, as I predicted, came back in his next to blow them away. Off that beating Violence gave Ox one would think it makes it makes Violence look that much better but on the other hand, Ox had a very tough trip in that race and could be just that good.

Falling Sky has one of the most inbred pedigrees you will ever see and is bred for the classic distances. He won the Sam Davis gate to wire and made the lead pretty easy without being urged. He looked to be getting tired at the end with Dynamic Sky closing in fast but never did get by, even on the gallop out. Off his next to last race one would have to think this is not a need to lead horse and will probably rate a little off the pace. I have observed over the years that when a front running horse learns to rate off the pace they usually have a tremendous finishing kick.
I think to win this one from his post he will need to get some position just off the pace because I think gunning for the lead may do him in.

There are a few others in this with nice breeding and one that I like is Cerro. He looks like he can run all day and this may even be a tad short for him. He wired them last time at 1 1/8 but should be closing in this. Motion isn't that keen on running him here but there aren't that many races for points so he feels it's best to take a shot now and still have time for another longer race later.

I'm a little up in the air with the pedigree of Orb so won't make a decision on him yet. He's won 2 in a row but hasn't met anything really good yet.

He's Had Enough ran that one good one in the BC and couldn't stay close against Flashback in his last. I just don't think this guy can get a distance because of those Mr P mares in his pedigree although he should be able to handle this.

I think Speak Logistics will see some action on the board because of his trip in his last. The hole did close up on him but I didn't see that much run when he did get clear. His breeding is the kind that can be good but there are a lot with his kind of pedigree so I will wait to see which way he is going to go.

I kind of like the papers of Sky Captain and he looks to me to be sitting on a big race. Oxley has been spending a ton of money trying to get a good Derby horse and he has a few good ones this year. Sky Captain was given a long break after his romp at CD in July and seems to be one that likes to be raced into top condition. Has had 2 tighteners and I think he will come out running for this one.

1- Falling Sky.....scratched
2- Violence
3- Sky Captain....scratched
4- Cerro
Longshot- Orb

FG  R10  The Risen Star

There are a couple in here with pedigrees that make me think it's a toss up as to whether or not they can get the Derby distance. Departing and Normandy Invasion have sire lines that say they can do it but they also have mares in the key spots that say they can't. Of course, that only applies to the Derby, because one doesn't need too much in the way of classic breeding to get this distance. I will have to wait and see which part of their pedigrees dominate.

Oxbow has my favorite pedigree of the year and is a beautiful out cross with that old Man O' War line introduced to very inbred Nearco lines. There doesn't seem to be all that much speed in here except maybe Palace Malice. It might hurt Oxbow if he's forced to gun to the lead from that outide post as it did in the Cashcall but that race had a lot of speed in it and was very fast paced. He did give a sign in that race that he might be able to be rated and that would be a good thing because he has enough speed to be placed pretty much any where Court wants him. I don't know if he has bottomed out yet but if he hasn't he could wire them.

Normandy Invasion will probably be the chalk because of a big Beyer figure in his last. I have my doubts about that big number in that race because on that same day Uncaptured won the KJC in what was very slow time. Overanlyized was well beaten by Uncaptured in his previous race and came back to run a big Beyer in the Remsen. I don't think Overanalyized is all that good and Normandy Invasion made a long run and had the lead but flattened out and couldn't hold. I have my doubts about NI but Chad usually has them ready and I could be wrong in my assessment.

Baffert and Pletcher both have horses in this and they always command respect. I know Pletcher was very high on Palace Malice and he was away for quite some time. His first off the layoff found him a little short against a pretty fast one. He's been working in company with Violence and has some very nice works leading up to this with his last a bullet at 5f.

Departing was the choice of Hernandez over Golden Soul and Proud Strike but he's been scratched so I guess it was a bit of bad luck with the post that was drawn.

Mylute ran a nice race against Goldencents, who is one of the top Derby contenders, in the Delta Jackpot. He came back to win big in a tune-up but I haven't yet made up my mind on his pedigree.

Golden Soul got a lot of action in his last against Oxbow but couldn't handle that one. He did beat Fear The Kitten who came back with another good race so he might contend late in this one. He is nicely bred and should have no problems with distance.

I could go on and on with this race as it is a very tough one to figure. I suppose I am going to be guessing as to who I think will finish behind the Ox, if he wins.

1- Oxbow
2- Palace Malice
3- Normandy Invasion
4- Mylute
Longshots- Golden Soul, I've Struck a Nerve

RECAP
Impatient ride on Violence cost the race. Other than that , nothing special.

In the Risen Star however, the best horse didn't win. Oxbow was caught flat footed at the start, gunned for the turn, caught out in right field all the way around the turn but got position. Was sitting pretty til jock made premature move to get the lead with more than a 1/4 to go and beaten by a length.

Doesn't anyone realize what it costs a horse to get used like that in the first 1/4? Why do you think trainers scratch because of post position? This race was a carbon copy of his race in the Cash Call when the same thing happened. I think the ride cost Ox more than 5 lengths at the finish. He was best by far!

I still think this is the best horse on the trail but I wish Lukas would get a patient rider on him. He will have another chance and I hope he gets an inside post or a better ride.

Backstretch

Newsletter #55 Recap

Newsletter  #55  Sat.  2/2/13

We have the G2 Robert B Lewis with 4 horses entered. Is this a joke, or what? I have been in favor of the new derby point system but something like this gives me second thoughts.

Having thought it over I have come to the conclusion that a point system has its merits but I don't think the method on which the points are based now is the correct solution. Rather than having each race give a predetermined amount of points, I think the points should be decided after the fact. What I mean by that is that the points should be awarded according to how many and what kind of horses happened to be in any particular race.

Imagine this, and it is or may happen: Race "A" is a graded race with 6 entries, none of whom has ever won a graded race vs race "B", which is also a graded race, with 12 entries and over half have won a graded race, and yet, both are worth the same number of points. Wouldn't seem fair, would it?

The horse of the year or the Experimental Handicap voting is done after the races are run, not before. I believe a point system could be worked out that would award points to a race based on the quality of the horses in it. Like how many graded horses in it and what grades they have beaten. I'm sure a formula could be worked out so as to award so many points for each graded win, what the grade was, added money races, etc. The point value of the race could be determined once the entries are in but before the race is run. If the point value of races is just going to be the result of an arbitrary pre-determination than they may as well stick with the former earnings method. That's just one man's opinion.

This week we have the RB Lewis with 4 horses entered and none have won a graded race and the favorite is coming off a maiden win. We have the same situation, except for the number of entries, in the Withers at AQU. with the favorite in that coming off a maiden win.

Last week we had the Holy Bull which had 10 entries, 2 of them being graded winners and one of them had won 2 G1 races. I know those wins were as a 2 yr old, so what. Should a race with that kind of competition only be worth 10 points, the same as these poor races this week? This is just some food for thought.

I'll not even bother with the RB Lewis because I don't know how it is worth betting.

AQU  R9  The Withers

Revolutionary has the pedigree I like best in here and he will more than likely be the chalk. He had been knocking at the door and broke through with a big win in a maiden event last time out. He has enough speed to stay close up and will probably handle these.

Mc Laughlin has 2 in here that are nicely bred with Long River having more experience than his stablemate, Valid. Long River is getting lasix for the first time and this trainer is 50% when doing this. He was beat by a couple others in here in the Jerome but I think he will show enough improvement to reverse that. I really like the pedigree of Valid and he wouldn't surprise me by taking this although I think he needs another race or two.

Amerigo Vespucci has some very nice breeding and has been very steady. Seems to always come ready to run and should make his presence felt.

Another with a great pedigree is Champion Boy but it's tough to get there on breeding alone. This is the trainer that was tossed out of PRX where he was winning everything in sight. He usually has his horses well spotted but this seems a little extreme running a maiden in here but one never knows. I have seen a couple maidens take down a stakes recently. His figure is low and he just doesn't seem ready for the big time yet.

1- Revolutionary
2- Long River
3- Valid
4- Amerigo Vespucci
Long Shot- Champion Boy

TAM  R11  The Sam Davis

This is another race without a graded winner in it. I know graded winners are scarce because there haven't been many run as yet but at least it has 10 entries.

Northern Lion has one of the better pedigrees in this one and is coming off a big maiden win. Casse seems to be loaded for bear this year and he's very good at having them ready to run. This one shows a pattern of improvement and looks like he should move forward off his last.

Falling Sky is really inbred to the Nearco line and shouldn't have a problem with the distance. He wasn't far behind the undefeated Purple Egg in his second race and came back to win his next. The two he beat in his last both won their next race so maybe his last was one of those key races.

I'm not revved up with Dynamic Sky's pedigree but he won the Pasco over the track and he ran a good one at the distance at KEE in addition to being not far behind Shanghai Bobby in the BC race. He may be hard to beat in here.

Speak Logistics also ran a decent one in the BC and is nicely bred. He's had a nice series of evenly spaced works so should come out running.

 Divine Ambition got caught in a battle up front in the Pasco and tired but his breeding says he may handle a distance if rated.

1- Northern Lion
2- Falling Sky
3- Dynamic Sky
4- Speak Logistics
Long Shot- Divine Ambition


RECAP
As expected, the RB Lewis and the Withers were both taken by the very short priced favorites. Flashback had things all his own way in the RBL and although looking impressive I will wait until he meets some decent runners before I make any decision as to how good he really is.

In NY, Revolutionary had to overcome a ton of trouble to win that one. He looks to be a slow starter out of the gate but I didn't think he would be that far back early. I have to question the ride he got and think that the jock did a terrible job on one hand and on the other he did a super job guiding him to the win. It seemed to me that JJ could have looped the field with no trouble and he would have won easily instead of having to thread the needle by keeping him in traffic the way he did. I think Revolutionary has a bright future in getting the classic distances because, aside from showing a lot of talent, he has a super pedigree.

In the Sam Davis I had picked Northern Lion on top but since he was scratched, that moved my other picks up a notch. I was a little surprised that Falling Sky went right out for the lead after stumbling at the start because it looked to me, from his previous races, that he would take kindly to be rated just off the pace but the jock said he made the lead on his own without being pushed. I think this one can handle more distance if not used early and has the speed to find a stalking position in future races.

Dynamic Sky was a little late switching leads but was coming strongly when he did to get up for second. Had the exacta cold and if Speak Logistics hadn't had to check when looking for room on the rail in the stretch, I might have had them 1-2-3 in order.

Backstretch

Newsletter # 54 Recap

Newsletter #54

GP  Sat. 1/26/13  The Holy Bull  G3

As I had hoped, under the new point system for the derby, we are seeing another really competitive race with a decent sized field. If we were still under the earnings system most would be dodging Shanghai Bobby and this would probably be a 6 horse field. It looks like the trainers realize they are going to have to go head to head and not waste their chances by shopping around for an easy spot.

It's kind of hard to go against Shanghai Bobby considering he's undefeated after 5 races. I don't think he will get the derby distance with those RAN mares in key spots but this is within his scope. He should be tough in here but this is not to say he's a lock. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get beat as a lot of other BC horses do in their first race of the new year.

I like the pedigree of Frac Daddy with the Damascus cross coming back into the Northern Dancer line. He just lost a hard fought battle with Uncaptured in a race with slow time but I had mentioned that race in my last newsletter and I can't discount horses from that race because of time. Fear The Kitten was in that race and came back to run well and I expect this one to do the same.

Clearly Now is another Canadian hoping to get on the derby bandwagon and although nicely bred, I'll take a wait and see attitude with him.

Bern Identity has been right there in all his races but I don't care much for his pedigree but he should hold his own at this distance. Paco made the right choice between horses in the GP Derby and is getting off the winner of that race to stick with this one.

Sr. Quisqueyano was beaten again by Itsmyluckyday in his last in what was a pretty quick race. He's been pretty steady but may be just a cut below a few of these and I don't care much for his breeding for the classics.

Dewey Square is a nice colt with some classic potential. He was beaten by Frac Daddy last time but didn't have the best of trips. He's had a nice series of works since his last and threw a bullet in his last one. I do wonder about the 2 weeks between his last work in Dec. and his next in Jan. Seems like there should have been another work in there.

I picked Itsmyluckyday last time and he really blew them away but after Purple Egg was scratched it didn't leave much to beat. That race had a really quick pace but I think the last part was kind of slow considering how fast the track was that day. Of course, I have no way of knowing, but I wonder why Paco is not back on him after that big number he ran last time. And, you can be sure he will get a lot of action off that big Beyer which will probably make him an underlay. I will probably make a mistake with this one because I love his pedigree. I don't know if I think he will bounce or what but I just feel this isn't his race

I really like this out crossed pedigree of Tulira Castle and you might think I'm off my rocker for liking this one but I do. His dosage is too high for the dosage boys but his breeding tells me he can get a distance. His dam side has some great distance runners in it and many called Bold Ruler a sprinter but there have been more than a few derby winners derived from that line. Although this may be too soon for this horse as he probably needs some seasoning, I still like him and give him a shot to make a race of it.

Fredericksburg is another with a nice pedigree but he hasn't run to it as yet. He's only had one dirt race and ran well but I will wait to see if he shows more improvement.

1- Frac Daddy
2- Shanghai Bobby
3- Dewey Square
4- Bern Identity
Long Shot- Tulira Castle

RECAP
I really made a big boo-boo in this one. Even though I really like the pedigree of Itsmyluckyday I thought he might have peaked in his last and would regress somewhat. I normally go with the ones that have the breeding that I like best if they show any talent at all but I got cute here and tried to predict something that is difficult to forcast.

Not only did Itsmyluckyday beat an undefeated Shanghai Bobby but also broke the track record. His pedigree told me he could of had more in the tank but I chose to ignore it which was big mistake.

It turned out to be a two horse race as these two were in a zone of their own. I don't see Bobby getting the derby distance but the paper of IMLD tells me he can handle any distance.

I had mentioned in a recent post that I thought this was one of the best crops I had ever seen and that I noticed a trend toward bringing a cross into these inbred horses that we have been seeing for some years now. I love these out crossed horses and as of the moment my top rated four on the year are a result of a cross in the pedigree. Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow and Violence are ones that I feel can get the derby distance and they all have that advantage of speed that they have shown they are able to sustain. I have a piece in the works about these type horses which I will post as soon as I get around to finishing it.
Backstretch

Newsletter #53 Recap

Newsletter  #53  Sat. 1/19/13

FG  R10  The LeComte  G3

This is only a G3 race but it does carry qualifying points for the KY Derby. There are only a couple in here that have tried a graded race and only a few that have tried a distance other than a sprint, so we have a field of untried horses, some of which, may may turn out to be nice ones as they mature a little more.

I don't find much fault with any of these as far as their breeding is concerned. There may be a couple who have pedigrees that are more of the type I favor but most have the papers that say they have classic potential. But, as we all know, no matter how well bred they all are, some will have more talent than others. At this stage of the game I tend to not put too much weight on any speed figures that may cause one to eliminate what look like slower horses. There is still much room for improvement in these types and many times we will see a dramatic increase in speed figures. On the other hand, there are sometimes races, as with the KyJC race, where the race is unusually slow for some reason or other. Even though that was a slow race that was won by Uncaptured, I wouldn't discount him in future races by any means

I'm going to go with Oxbow in this race for several reasons. One, I love his pedigree with the out cross in the Man'O War dam sire line. Another reason I like him is because of his last race that was won by Violence. I am actually down grading the performance of the winner of that because of the very fast pace that was contested by 4 horses. The last part of the race was a little slow and Violence had a perfect rail trip sitting just off the leaders. On the other hand, even though Fury Kapcori held very well to get second, Oxbow had a very strenuous trip. He ran very wide around the first turn and was pushed hard to get to the leaders. He then dropped back slightly and proceeded to make an early run at the leaders around the turn and drew about even. After being passed by several horses he came back again to get fourth. I thought he ran a very game race and was really hurt by the outside post. He has a lot of speed but also showed on the backstretch he could be rated a little. There's quite a bit of speed in this race and he may get good position behind the leaders with this post position.

Avie's Quality has had 4 races at over a mile and been right there every time but they were on the turf and poly so the question is, how will he handle dirt? This type usually handles the switch and sometimes run big numbers and as far as the figs go, he has the best in here. I just wonder how he will handle a fast paced race. He may not get into it soon enough so that even with a good late run he may fall a little short.

I think Golden Soul will see some action on the board because of the way he won his last but he only beat 4 others in that and it had a very slow pace. He did overcome a quick pace in his first start when he ran second so it's hard to say what he might do here.

Circle Unbroken is a nicely bred horse and has already won a graded race although it was a sprint. He was beaten in his last by a pretty nice colt but I think he came out of that with an injury and has been off for over 5 months. The question is, does he need this race? The trainer said he may not be ready but wants to get a race into him. I kind of think he may be scratched.

Malibu High has one of those speedy pedigrees with a lot of influence from Mr Prospector mares and though usually not suited for the derby distance, they can be really good at this distance. He's 2 for 2 so he knows where the line is. Calvin is hurt so Mena picks up the mount and he's very good and under rated.

I like the pedigree of Hawaakom and he was a nice maiden winner in his first try at a distance. His time was on the slow side but, as I've said, I don't like to discount young horses because of that factor.

Fear The Kitten broke last in his most recent race but was making up ground in a slow paced race. The first 2 finishers in that are real nice colts, especially Uncaptured, so I think that race was a lot better than the figures would indicate.

This is probably a wide open race and a good case could be made for most of them. They all have nice breeding and they all seem to be in good form off their most recent races. It's all according to how this race is run and I think the key will be if Oxbow will rate.

1- Oxbow
2- Malibu High
3- Avie's Quality
4- Fear The Kitten
Long Shots-  Golden Soul and Hawaakom

Another point I want to mention concerns the derby point system. I just read an article and from what one trainer says, I think it indicates that we aren't going to see all that dodging we have seen in the past. If they want to get to the derby they are going to have to face all comers and not just be able to pick easy spots to make it. Naturally, there will probably be some tweaks to the system but I think we will see a better field for the derby without the sprinters and those that have won one big 2 yr old race. After all, these are 3 yr old colts and just because a couple may have had an edge as a baby, that alone should not be enough to put them in the big show.

This is the link to the article:
http://www.drf.com/news/road-kentucky-derby-has-new-map

Backstretch
RECAP
I was a little surprised that Oxbow got the lead so easily because I thought a few of the sprinters would try for the lead. I guess the OX has a lot more speed than I thought. As I said, that race in the Cashcall was so much better than it looked on paper. After the Cash I had said to keep an eye on Oxbow because I was very impressed with his race. One can't just go on what the PPs say and it really pays to go back and look at races, that is, if one actually knows how to look at a race. Blowing this field away by 11 lengths puts him right up there with the point leaders and I probably like his pedigree better than any I've seen so far.

Golden Soul was a good second but I don't know how much that might mean in the future because he caught a bunch of horses that were simply worn out trying to stay close to the winner.

The same goes for Fear The Kitten who came on to be third. I did like the sneaky good race he ran last time against Uncaptured. That race was a little odd because of the slow time but regardless of the time, the first two in that race are nice colts.

Looking ahead, I have an idea that Oxbow will rate a little off the pace if it's called for and he will probably have a good kick from there. He was ridden by Jon Court and I hope Lukas stays with him because I'd really like to see Jon get to the derby again after having that hard luck with Archarcharch.