Newsletter #55 Recap

Newsletter  #55  Sat.  2/2/13

We have the G2 Robert B Lewis with 4 horses entered. Is this a joke, or what? I have been in favor of the new derby point system but something like this gives me second thoughts.

Having thought it over I have come to the conclusion that a point system has its merits but I don't think the method on which the points are based now is the correct solution. Rather than having each race give a predetermined amount of points, I think the points should be decided after the fact. What I mean by that is that the points should be awarded according to how many and what kind of horses happened to be in any particular race.

Imagine this, and it is or may happen: Race "A" is a graded race with 6 entries, none of whom has ever won a graded race vs race "B", which is also a graded race, with 12 entries and over half have won a graded race, and yet, both are worth the same number of points. Wouldn't seem fair, would it?

The horse of the year or the Experimental Handicap voting is done after the races are run, not before. I believe a point system could be worked out that would award points to a race based on the quality of the horses in it. Like how many graded horses in it and what grades they have beaten. I'm sure a formula could be worked out so as to award so many points for each graded win, what the grade was, added money races, etc. The point value of the race could be determined once the entries are in but before the race is run. If the point value of races is just going to be the result of an arbitrary pre-determination than they may as well stick with the former earnings method. That's just one man's opinion.

This week we have the RB Lewis with 4 horses entered and none have won a graded race and the favorite is coming off a maiden win. We have the same situation, except for the number of entries, in the Withers at AQU. with the favorite in that coming off a maiden win.

Last week we had the Holy Bull which had 10 entries, 2 of them being graded winners and one of them had won 2 G1 races. I know those wins were as a 2 yr old, so what. Should a race with that kind of competition only be worth 10 points, the same as these poor races this week? This is just some food for thought.

I'll not even bother with the RB Lewis because I don't know how it is worth betting.

AQU  R9  The Withers

Revolutionary has the pedigree I like best in here and he will more than likely be the chalk. He had been knocking at the door and broke through with a big win in a maiden event last time out. He has enough speed to stay close up and will probably handle these.

Mc Laughlin has 2 in here that are nicely bred with Long River having more experience than his stablemate, Valid. Long River is getting lasix for the first time and this trainer is 50% when doing this. He was beat by a couple others in here in the Jerome but I think he will show enough improvement to reverse that. I really like the pedigree of Valid and he wouldn't surprise me by taking this although I think he needs another race or two.

Amerigo Vespucci has some very nice breeding and has been very steady. Seems to always come ready to run and should make his presence felt.

Another with a great pedigree is Champion Boy but it's tough to get there on breeding alone. This is the trainer that was tossed out of PRX where he was winning everything in sight. He usually has his horses well spotted but this seems a little extreme running a maiden in here but one never knows. I have seen a couple maidens take down a stakes recently. His figure is low and he just doesn't seem ready for the big time yet.

1- Revolutionary
2- Long River
3- Valid
4- Amerigo Vespucci
Long Shot- Champion Boy

TAM  R11  The Sam Davis

This is another race without a graded winner in it. I know graded winners are scarce because there haven't been many run as yet but at least it has 10 entries.

Northern Lion has one of the better pedigrees in this one and is coming off a big maiden win. Casse seems to be loaded for bear this year and he's very good at having them ready to run. This one shows a pattern of improvement and looks like he should move forward off his last.

Falling Sky is really inbred to the Nearco line and shouldn't have a problem with the distance. He wasn't far behind the undefeated Purple Egg in his second race and came back to win his next. The two he beat in his last both won their next race so maybe his last was one of those key races.

I'm not revved up with Dynamic Sky's pedigree but he won the Pasco over the track and he ran a good one at the distance at KEE in addition to being not far behind Shanghai Bobby in the BC race. He may be hard to beat in here.

Speak Logistics also ran a decent one in the BC and is nicely bred. He's had a nice series of evenly spaced works so should come out running.

 Divine Ambition got caught in a battle up front in the Pasco and tired but his breeding says he may handle a distance if rated.

1- Northern Lion
2- Falling Sky
3- Dynamic Sky
4- Speak Logistics
Long Shot- Divine Ambition


RECAP
As expected, the RB Lewis and the Withers were both taken by the very short priced favorites. Flashback had things all his own way in the RBL and although looking impressive I will wait until he meets some decent runners before I make any decision as to how good he really is.

In NY, Revolutionary had to overcome a ton of trouble to win that one. He looks to be a slow starter out of the gate but I didn't think he would be that far back early. I have to question the ride he got and think that the jock did a terrible job on one hand and on the other he did a super job guiding him to the win. It seemed to me that JJ could have looped the field with no trouble and he would have won easily instead of having to thread the needle by keeping him in traffic the way he did. I think Revolutionary has a bright future in getting the classic distances because, aside from showing a lot of talent, he has a super pedigree.

In the Sam Davis I had picked Northern Lion on top but since he was scratched, that moved my other picks up a notch. I was a little surprised that Falling Sky went right out for the lead after stumbling at the start because it looked to me, from his previous races, that he would take kindly to be rated just off the pace but the jock said he made the lead on his own without being pushed. I think this one can handle more distance if not used early and has the speed to find a stalking position in future races.

Dynamic Sky was a little late switching leads but was coming strongly when he did to get up for second. Had the exacta cold and if Speak Logistics hadn't had to check when looking for room on the rail in the stretch, I might have had them 1-2-3 in order.

Backstretch