Newsletter # 54 Recap

Newsletter #54

GP  Sat. 1/26/13  The Holy Bull  G3

As I had hoped, under the new point system for the derby, we are seeing another really competitive race with a decent sized field. If we were still under the earnings system most would be dodging Shanghai Bobby and this would probably be a 6 horse field. It looks like the trainers realize they are going to have to go head to head and not waste their chances by shopping around for an easy spot.

It's kind of hard to go against Shanghai Bobby considering he's undefeated after 5 races. I don't think he will get the derby distance with those RAN mares in key spots but this is within his scope. He should be tough in here but this is not to say he's a lock. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get beat as a lot of other BC horses do in their first race of the new year.

I like the pedigree of Frac Daddy with the Damascus cross coming back into the Northern Dancer line. He just lost a hard fought battle with Uncaptured in a race with slow time but I had mentioned that race in my last newsletter and I can't discount horses from that race because of time. Fear The Kitten was in that race and came back to run well and I expect this one to do the same.

Clearly Now is another Canadian hoping to get on the derby bandwagon and although nicely bred, I'll take a wait and see attitude with him.

Bern Identity has been right there in all his races but I don't care much for his pedigree but he should hold his own at this distance. Paco made the right choice between horses in the GP Derby and is getting off the winner of that race to stick with this one.

Sr. Quisqueyano was beaten again by Itsmyluckyday in his last in what was a pretty quick race. He's been pretty steady but may be just a cut below a few of these and I don't care much for his breeding for the classics.

Dewey Square is a nice colt with some classic potential. He was beaten by Frac Daddy last time but didn't have the best of trips. He's had a nice series of works since his last and threw a bullet in his last one. I do wonder about the 2 weeks between his last work in Dec. and his next in Jan. Seems like there should have been another work in there.

I picked Itsmyluckyday last time and he really blew them away but after Purple Egg was scratched it didn't leave much to beat. That race had a really quick pace but I think the last part was kind of slow considering how fast the track was that day. Of course, I have no way of knowing, but I wonder why Paco is not back on him after that big number he ran last time. And, you can be sure he will get a lot of action off that big Beyer which will probably make him an underlay. I will probably make a mistake with this one because I love his pedigree. I don't know if I think he will bounce or what but I just feel this isn't his race

I really like this out crossed pedigree of Tulira Castle and you might think I'm off my rocker for liking this one but I do. His dosage is too high for the dosage boys but his breeding tells me he can get a distance. His dam side has some great distance runners in it and many called Bold Ruler a sprinter but there have been more than a few derby winners derived from that line. Although this may be too soon for this horse as he probably needs some seasoning, I still like him and give him a shot to make a race of it.

Fredericksburg is another with a nice pedigree but he hasn't run to it as yet. He's only had one dirt race and ran well but I will wait to see if he shows more improvement.

1- Frac Daddy
2- Shanghai Bobby
3- Dewey Square
4- Bern Identity
Long Shot- Tulira Castle

RECAP
I really made a big boo-boo in this one. Even though I really like the pedigree of Itsmyluckyday I thought he might have peaked in his last and would regress somewhat. I normally go with the ones that have the breeding that I like best if they show any talent at all but I got cute here and tried to predict something that is difficult to forcast.

Not only did Itsmyluckyday beat an undefeated Shanghai Bobby but also broke the track record. His pedigree told me he could of had more in the tank but I chose to ignore it which was big mistake.

It turned out to be a two horse race as these two were in a zone of their own. I don't see Bobby getting the derby distance but the paper of IMLD tells me he can handle any distance.

I had mentioned in a recent post that I thought this was one of the best crops I had ever seen and that I noticed a trend toward bringing a cross into these inbred horses that we have been seeing for some years now. I love these out crossed horses and as of the moment my top rated four on the year are a result of a cross in the pedigree. Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow and Violence are ones that I feel can get the derby distance and they all have that advantage of speed that they have shown they are able to sustain. I have a piece in the works about these type horses which I will post as soon as I get around to finishing it.
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