Newsletter #60 Recap

Newsletter  #60  Sat. 3/2/13

AQU  R10  The Gotham G3

Wow, another full field. If nothing else, the new point system has brought us some full fields of competitive horses. There are some in here that are bred for the classics and a few that I'm undecided about.

We've got four that are coming out of the Withers that was won by Revolutionary, who I like because of his pedigree, but I don't think there was much in there for him to beat. Some of them had been beaten by Vyjack who looks like a main contender in this.

I'm sure Overanalyze will be the favorite off his last with that big Beyer number. I am suspicious of that figure because on the same day, Uncaptured who beat him in the Iroquois, came back to win in a very slow race at CD. I just don't see this horse running as fast as the figure says he did in his last. Also, he nosed out Normandy Invasion who was no ball of fire as the chalk in the Risen Star. I'm undecided about his pedigree because it's not the kind that I favor. He's been on the shelf for three months or more and may be a little short because his normal schedule is to race once a month.

Vyjack has some really nice breeding and hasn't taken a bad step yet in racking up 3 in a row. Doesn't it seem strange for the jock that has steered him to all his victories to be taken off? The owner thinks that Rosario will handle the horse better than Velasquez. The owner of Vyjack is a guy who hit a P6 for 3 mil and decided to get himself a good horse. He paid 100 Gs for him at the sale because he liked his pedigree and his workout. He says the reason for the change in jocks is that Vyjack is an aggressive horse who they decided to geld because of his head strong tendencies. He feels that the horse was fighting Velasquez and that Joel would be a better fit.

Mc Laughlin has 3 in this and 2 of them are owned by Darley. I think one of them will be scratched, probably Now and Then. He and the other half of the entry, Transparent have very nice pedigrees and have been racing without lasix. Darley may have been one of the owners that decided to do without lasix and I also think they may have their eye on the UAE Derby. One must always give serious consideration to horses from this stable and a very live jock.

Mc Laughlin also has Elnaawi who is coming off a nice maiden win and gets lasix for the first time. I'm not too fond of his bloodlines but this isn't the derby. Horses who have won over the track have a little edge and usually run well.

Sky Captain scratched out of the Fountain of Youth last week because of a bad post and probably to dodge Violence. He was beaten last time by Cerro who didn't fare too well in the FOY but his chances were killed in that one when he tried to chase that fast pace which isn't his style. Casse has a few nice ones in Uncaptured, Northern Lion and Dynamic Sky in addition to this one. Sky Captain has a very nice pedigree and looks to be sitting on a big race but the question is, how will he take to this track?

Of the 4 colts coming out of the Withers any one of them could get a piece of this race but I happen to really like the pedigree of the maiden, Champion Boy. I don't think it's ever a good thing to throw maidens in the deep end of the pool by jumping them up against graded winners but he wasn't badly beaten and looks like he will improve off his last so I'll give him a shot.

I've got to leave somebody out but it looks like anything is possible in this race. Overanalyze has a class edge because of his running good in graded races but I think he will be odds on and I'm going to try to beat him.

1- Sky Captain
2- Vyjack
3- Overanalyze
4- Elnaawi
Long Shot- Champion Boy

Recap

This was a rough run race. At the start the second place finisher, West Hills Giant, came over and crowded the whole field and especially Elnaawi who had a terrible trip and I think he would have been an easy second with a clean trip.

Another with a bad trip was Champion Boy, the maiden. He was shut off at the top of the stretch when he looked to be making a move, got going again and was blocked again and couldn't regain his momentum. He has a pedigree with a lot of potential and I think he will be heard from down the road somewhere. I also think he's been badly handled.

If you recall, I had mentioned, in another post, that many speed horses develop a terrific closing kick when reserved off the pace and allowed to retain all that energy they had been using early. Vyjack is a perfect example of that. Normally up on the pace he was allowed to laze near the back and came on like a train in the stretch. There are a few others on the trail that might do the same if they take to being rated.

I had also said that I thought the Derby would be won by one of the out crossed horses on the Derby trail. Vyjack is a very nice example of an out crossed horse, with the Princequillo/Double Jay lines introduced through the maternal G Dam and then brought back into the Nearco line to produce what I like to call Hybrid Vigor. There are a few of these types of pedigrees out there like, Demonic, Flashback, Oxbow, Revolutionary and Vyjack. These are all at the top of my Derby list, and unless I've missed one somewhere, one of these will win the big show in my opinion.
Backstretch