Newsletter #59 Recap

Newsletter #59  Sat.  2/23/13

Starting this week things should get really wild. I say this because, unlike the past several years, we have so many contenders that want to run up front. The list is pretty long with horses like Falling Sky, Flashback, Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby, Uncaptured, Verrazano, Super Ninety Nine, and some others that have plenty of speed and like to set the pace with a couple of them being able to also sit just off the pace. There are more coming along that haven't been in one of the preps that also want to run up front.

At the moment, we have no idea what's going to happen when they begin to meet one another. I would suspect that those that have shown an ability to rate would have an advantage but there may be one of them with enough speed to run them all off their feet as Big Brown did. It will be very interesting to see what kind of strategy will be employed by the trainers and jocks.

We have a few good ones that like to run well off the pace like Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary who may benefit from some fast paced races so any thing may happen and there are surely some surprises in store.

I will still rely on their pedigrees to steer me to some winners but they will need to show some ability because we are having some mighty big Beyers being run this early and likely to see even better as we get, what looks like, some very fast paced races.

Before I get into these races I want to offer you a handicapping tip. There have been several races where there was a horse that got out front and ran away with the race. In many cases the horse is so dominate that he totally wipes out any horse that tries to challenge him. Remember this, and this is a reason one should never use a speed rating for a horse that had speed and tired and then dropped out of the race, when a horse gets really tired they stop to a walk. An exhausted horse may be passed by the worst plug in the race. In these instances, do not deceive youself into thinking that one of the late runners was actually closing.

For instance, in the Southwest Stakes last week, Super Ninety Nine totally destroyed that field. He went out on the lead and 2 horses, Big Lute and Always in a Tiz, both made a run at him. He put them away and they were so wiped out that they just dropped completely out of the race. A couple of longshots ended up in the money, not because they were closing, but the dead horses came back to them. So don't be fooled by what looks like a good closing effort when the horse passes dead ones.

Here's a web site where you can watch the re-runs of the prep races and see for yourself what happens in those situations. http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/preps/schedule

GP  R11  The Fountain of Youth

This is the first 50 point race in the Derby series and, as I had thought, we have a nice field of colts. There are a couple of graded winners in here but it's still a little early for the top contenders to be meeting each other.

Violence is at, or near the top of every body's list as he might very well deserve to be. He has a very nice out crossed pedigree and it's my feeling that a horse with this type pedigree will nail down the Derby. He is 3 for 3 including a G2 and a G1 win. I feel sure he will be odds on in this race and it will be a hard decision to go against him. The only knock I have against him is that in his last, the Cash Call out west, was that there were 4 horses vying for the lead in a fast paced race and they came home a little slow. He had a perfect trip sitting just behind the leaders and over took the tiring front runner Kapcori who actually held on pretty good. Oxbow, as I predicted, came back in his next to blow them away. Off that beating Violence gave Ox one would think it makes it makes Violence look that much better but on the other hand, Ox had a very tough trip in that race and could be just that good.

Falling Sky has one of the most inbred pedigrees you will ever see and is bred for the classic distances. He won the Sam Davis gate to wire and made the lead pretty easy without being urged. He looked to be getting tired at the end with Dynamic Sky closing in fast but never did get by, even on the gallop out. Off his next to last race one would have to think this is not a need to lead horse and will probably rate a little off the pace. I have observed over the years that when a front running horse learns to rate off the pace they usually have a tremendous finishing kick.
I think to win this one from his post he will need to get some position just off the pace because I think gunning for the lead may do him in.

There are a few others in this with nice breeding and one that I like is Cerro. He looks like he can run all day and this may even be a tad short for him. He wired them last time at 1 1/8 but should be closing in this. Motion isn't that keen on running him here but there aren't that many races for points so he feels it's best to take a shot now and still have time for another longer race later.

I'm a little up in the air with the pedigree of Orb so won't make a decision on him yet. He's won 2 in a row but hasn't met anything really good yet.

He's Had Enough ran that one good one in the BC and couldn't stay close against Flashback in his last. I just don't think this guy can get a distance because of those Mr P mares in his pedigree although he should be able to handle this.

I think Speak Logistics will see some action on the board because of his trip in his last. The hole did close up on him but I didn't see that much run when he did get clear. His breeding is the kind that can be good but there are a lot with his kind of pedigree so I will wait to see which way he is going to go.

I kind of like the papers of Sky Captain and he looks to me to be sitting on a big race. Oxley has been spending a ton of money trying to get a good Derby horse and he has a few good ones this year. Sky Captain was given a long break after his romp at CD in July and seems to be one that likes to be raced into top condition. Has had 2 tighteners and I think he will come out running for this one.

1- Falling Sky.....scratched
2- Violence
3- Sky Captain....scratched
4- Cerro
Longshot- Orb

FG  R10  The Risen Star

There are a couple in here with pedigrees that make me think it's a toss up as to whether or not they can get the Derby distance. Departing and Normandy Invasion have sire lines that say they can do it but they also have mares in the key spots that say they can't. Of course, that only applies to the Derby, because one doesn't need too much in the way of classic breeding to get this distance. I will have to wait and see which part of their pedigrees dominate.

Oxbow has my favorite pedigree of the year and is a beautiful out cross with that old Man O' War line introduced to very inbred Nearco lines. There doesn't seem to be all that much speed in here except maybe Palace Malice. It might hurt Oxbow if he's forced to gun to the lead from that outide post as it did in the Cashcall but that race had a lot of speed in it and was very fast paced. He did give a sign in that race that he might be able to be rated and that would be a good thing because he has enough speed to be placed pretty much any where Court wants him. I don't know if he has bottomed out yet but if he hasn't he could wire them.

Normandy Invasion will probably be the chalk because of a big Beyer figure in his last. I have my doubts about that big number in that race because on that same day Uncaptured won the KJC in what was very slow time. Overanlyized was well beaten by Uncaptured in his previous race and came back to run a big Beyer in the Remsen. I don't think Overanalyized is all that good and Normandy Invasion made a long run and had the lead but flattened out and couldn't hold. I have my doubts about NI but Chad usually has them ready and I could be wrong in my assessment.

Baffert and Pletcher both have horses in this and they always command respect. I know Pletcher was very high on Palace Malice and he was away for quite some time. His first off the layoff found him a little short against a pretty fast one. He's been working in company with Violence and has some very nice works leading up to this with his last a bullet at 5f.

Departing was the choice of Hernandez over Golden Soul and Proud Strike but he's been scratched so I guess it was a bit of bad luck with the post that was drawn.

Mylute ran a nice race against Goldencents, who is one of the top Derby contenders, in the Delta Jackpot. He came back to win big in a tune-up but I haven't yet made up my mind on his pedigree.

Golden Soul got a lot of action in his last against Oxbow but couldn't handle that one. He did beat Fear The Kitten who came back with another good race so he might contend late in this one. He is nicely bred and should have no problems with distance.

I could go on and on with this race as it is a very tough one to figure. I suppose I am going to be guessing as to who I think will finish behind the Ox, if he wins.

1- Oxbow
2- Palace Malice
3- Normandy Invasion
4- Mylute
Longshots- Golden Soul, I've Struck a Nerve

RECAP
Impatient ride on Violence cost the race. Other than that , nothing special.

In the Risen Star however, the best horse didn't win. Oxbow was caught flat footed at the start, gunned for the turn, caught out in right field all the way around the turn but got position. Was sitting pretty til jock made premature move to get the lead with more than a 1/4 to go and beaten by a length.

Doesn't anyone realize what it costs a horse to get used like that in the first 1/4? Why do you think trainers scratch because of post position? This race was a carbon copy of his race in the Cash Call when the same thing happened. I think the ride cost Ox more than 5 lengths at the finish. He was best by far!

I still think this is the best horse on the trail but I wish Lukas would get a patient rider on him. He will have another chance and I hope he gets an inside post or a better ride.

Backstretch