Newsletter #53 Recap

Newsletter  #53  Sat. 1/19/13

FG  R10  The LeComte  G3

This is only a G3 race but it does carry qualifying points for the KY Derby. There are only a couple in here that have tried a graded race and only a few that have tried a distance other than a sprint, so we have a field of untried horses, some of which, may may turn out to be nice ones as they mature a little more.

I don't find much fault with any of these as far as their breeding is concerned. There may be a couple who have pedigrees that are more of the type I favor but most have the papers that say they have classic potential. But, as we all know, no matter how well bred they all are, some will have more talent than others. At this stage of the game I tend to not put too much weight on any speed figures that may cause one to eliminate what look like slower horses. There is still much room for improvement in these types and many times we will see a dramatic increase in speed figures. On the other hand, there are sometimes races, as with the KyJC race, where the race is unusually slow for some reason or other. Even though that was a slow race that was won by Uncaptured, I wouldn't discount him in future races by any means

I'm going to go with Oxbow in this race for several reasons. One, I love his pedigree with the out cross in the Man'O War dam sire line. Another reason I like him is because of his last race that was won by Violence. I am actually down grading the performance of the winner of that because of the very fast pace that was contested by 4 horses. The last part of the race was a little slow and Violence had a perfect rail trip sitting just off the leaders. On the other hand, even though Fury Kapcori held very well to get second, Oxbow had a very strenuous trip. He ran very wide around the first turn and was pushed hard to get to the leaders. He then dropped back slightly and proceeded to make an early run at the leaders around the turn and drew about even. After being passed by several horses he came back again to get fourth. I thought he ran a very game race and was really hurt by the outside post. He has a lot of speed but also showed on the backstretch he could be rated a little. There's quite a bit of speed in this race and he may get good position behind the leaders with this post position.

Avie's Quality has had 4 races at over a mile and been right there every time but they were on the turf and poly so the question is, how will he handle dirt? This type usually handles the switch and sometimes run big numbers and as far as the figs go, he has the best in here. I just wonder how he will handle a fast paced race. He may not get into it soon enough so that even with a good late run he may fall a little short.

I think Golden Soul will see some action on the board because of the way he won his last but he only beat 4 others in that and it had a very slow pace. He did overcome a quick pace in his first start when he ran second so it's hard to say what he might do here.

Circle Unbroken is a nicely bred horse and has already won a graded race although it was a sprint. He was beaten in his last by a pretty nice colt but I think he came out of that with an injury and has been off for over 5 months. The question is, does he need this race? The trainer said he may not be ready but wants to get a race into him. I kind of think he may be scratched.

Malibu High has one of those speedy pedigrees with a lot of influence from Mr Prospector mares and though usually not suited for the derby distance, they can be really good at this distance. He's 2 for 2 so he knows where the line is. Calvin is hurt so Mena picks up the mount and he's very good and under rated.

I like the pedigree of Hawaakom and he was a nice maiden winner in his first try at a distance. His time was on the slow side but, as I've said, I don't like to discount young horses because of that factor.

Fear The Kitten broke last in his most recent race but was making up ground in a slow paced race. The first 2 finishers in that are real nice colts, especially Uncaptured, so I think that race was a lot better than the figures would indicate.

This is probably a wide open race and a good case could be made for most of them. They all have nice breeding and they all seem to be in good form off their most recent races. It's all according to how this race is run and I think the key will be if Oxbow will rate.

1- Oxbow
2- Malibu High
3- Avie's Quality
4- Fear The Kitten
Long Shots-  Golden Soul and Hawaakom

Another point I want to mention concerns the derby point system. I just read an article and from what one trainer says, I think it indicates that we aren't going to see all that dodging we have seen in the past. If they want to get to the derby they are going to have to face all comers and not just be able to pick easy spots to make it. Naturally, there will probably be some tweaks to the system but I think we will see a better field for the derby without the sprinters and those that have won one big 2 yr old race. After all, these are 3 yr old colts and just because a couple may have had an edge as a baby, that alone should not be enough to put them in the big show.

This is the link to the article:
http://www.drf.com/news/road-kentucky-derby-has-new-map

Backstretch
RECAP
I was a little surprised that Oxbow got the lead so easily because I thought a few of the sprinters would try for the lead. I guess the OX has a lot more speed than I thought. As I said, that race in the Cashcall was so much better than it looked on paper. After the Cash I had said to keep an eye on Oxbow because I was very impressed with his race. One can't just go on what the PPs say and it really pays to go back and look at races, that is, if one actually knows how to look at a race. Blowing this field away by 11 lengths puts him right up there with the point leaders and I probably like his pedigree better than any I've seen so far.

Golden Soul was a good second but I don't know how much that might mean in the future because he caught a bunch of horses that were simply worn out trying to stay close to the winner.

The same goes for Fear The Kitten who came on to be third. I did like the sneaky good race he ran last time against Uncaptured. That race was a little odd because of the slow time but regardless of the time, the first two in that race are nice colts.

Looking ahead, I have an idea that Oxbow will rate a little off the pace if it's called for and he will probably have a good kick from there. He was ridden by Jon Court and I hope Lukas stays with him because I'd really like to see Jon get to the derby again after having that hard luck with Archarcharch.