Newsletter #62 Recap

Newsletter #62  Sat. 3/16/13

OP  R10  The Rebel  G2

Looks like another nice full field with lots of horses in good form. I just hope it's a nice clean race with no trouble.

Oxbow is still my number one pedigree of the year but he gets another bad post. If it hadn't been for ; bad post positions, running hard and wide early and two misjudged premature moves he could have won his last four in a row. I had commented somewhere on line that I thought Lukas should get another jock to ride the Ox, somebody like Mike Smith and lo and behold, Mike gets the mount. If he can get good position just off the pace without getting used up early I think he will take this.

Super Ninety looks to be a real nice one and has a nice pedigree, not great, but good enough. I am always leery of horses that get away on the lead as he did last time, especially in the slop. He did beat Code West in his next to last and that one came back to run big in the Risen Star. I would like to dismiss Ninety Nine but there are too many ifs with him so must leave him in, especially the way Baffert wins at this track.

Delhomme is another I'd like to throw out but am too undecided about him. He is nicely bred, as with most of Pletcher's horses. but the question is, will he rate. He tried to take them all the way last time and tired and the two that beat him came back to run lousy races next time, although there were excuses made for both. I'm putting him in but he is very vulnerable.

Den's Legacy has been very steady and is usually a little short with his closing bids. This race has enough speed in it to cook some of them so he has a chance at a minor prize.

Treasury Bill also has a nice pedigree and with his stable mate full of speed and maybe acting as a rabbit, he will probably try to lay back and come at the end. Don't know if he's good enough but Talamo makes the trip to ride so they must feel pretty good about his chances.

Carve is one that Asmussen claimed out of a winning race and came right back to win his next. Has a nice pedigree and looks like he wants more distance. This might be the claim of the year if he keeps getting better.

I suppose the key to this race is what happens with all that speed on the outside. Delhomme, with his good speed and nice post should be where he wants to be and may have a little advantage . I think Title Contender will be gunning early along with Ninety Nine and Ox so there's a chance that the rest may be kind of squeezed going into the first turn. I really think the most important factor will be, what kind of spot Smith can work out with Ox.

1- Oxbow
2- Delhomme
3- Super Ninety Nine
4- Treasury Bill
Long Shots- Carve and Den's Legacy

RECAP

It was a very strange day at OP. There were 6 sprint races which are one turn races and 5 routes around two turns. In all the sprints the winner was either on the lead or close to the pace. In all the 2 turn races the winner came from the back of the pack. So what was going on around that first turn? Were they running through sand dunes or what?

Once again, Oxbow moved too soon and couldn't hold on at the end. Mike Smith said he didn't want to move that early but was forced to. Why, I don't know, because he had good position laying fourth or fifth but moved before the 1/4 pole. I am going to look at this race as an oddity in the future. I think Oxbow ran what could have been a winning race once again and I also think he is actually getting better with each race and will still be a major factor going forward.

All the front runners in the Rebel and all the other routes on the card ran into a brick wall so I think there was something strange going on. I wouldn't discount some of these speed horses in future races.
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