Friday, May 19, 2017
Preakness 2017
Preakness 2017
I've been away from blogging for a year because of health issues. It's certainly no fun getting old. I'm going to try to get back to it for awhile anyway.
I am not going to go through every horse's pedigree, just the ones I like best.
Always Dreaming has a classic pedigree that tells me he can handle any distance and his performance so far has been the best so I have to place him on top of these.
Conquest Mo Money is another with a pedigree that says he likes a distance of ground. He had won 3 in a row and got caught in a pace duel in his last two, especially his last, the Ark Derby where I think he was best. He set a pressured pace and shook off 2 horses before losing near the wire. My problem with him is his jockey. I think the guy is in over his head and I am surprised that they didn't try to get a top boy for this horse. They probably could have gotten Mike Smith. I did read that the trainer says they may not go for the lead this time which I think would be a smart move. From his post he can probably get position and sit second or third. No sense in trying to challenge Dreamer early.
I'm going to go out on a limb here with Classic Empire and basically throw him out. He may get a small piece but I think, because of his pedigree and the way he has run, that 9f is his limit. In his best race in the BC, even though he hung on to win, he was fast running out of gas and that was only at 8.5f. Tired in the Holy Bull and just about won the AK derby where he was off the pace and CMM had to battle 2 horses on the lead and was probably best in that one. I know he had a lot of trouble in KY but after a mile he started to lose ground on the leader even though he passed a few dead ones.
I think Gunnevera may rebound somewhat in this and may pick up a piece, especially with Money Mike up. Has a decent pedigree and I think we can throw out his last 2 and go back to his FOY race where he really put them away and I like his type of form cycle.
Going out on another limb with a real long shot, Term of Art. He may be a little slow coming to hand but it's very easy to glance at his record and toss him. In the San Felipe he had a bad start but still ran 3rd against Mastery who, after that race, everybody was saying that was the best race by a 3yr old all year and were jumping on him as the horse to beat in the derby. In the SA derby, which was a weird race that produced 2 good efforts by Irap and Battle of Midway, he was back in no-man's- land but even though very wide coming for home managed to pass 5 horses in deep stretch. Needs to be closer early and I think Ortiz will put him in the race. Has had 4 stiff works since last and gets blinkers. I'm giving him a money shot at probably 30/1.
1- #4 Always Dreaming 4/5...can't see them beating him.
2- #10 Conquest Mo Money 15/1..can run off the pace or up front..if the jock doesn't screw up he should be right there..very game horse.
3- #6 Gunnevera 15/1..needs a good trip
4- #7 Term of Art 30/1..may still need more distance..
5- #5 Classic Empire 3/1..may be a little closer but I think he's over rated.
Possibles..#9 Lookin At Lee, #1 Multiplier
Friday, May 6, 2016
KY Derby 2016
KY Derby 2015
I've been handicapping about 65 years and one of the first things I learned was never to bet against an unbeaten horse. Not that they don't lose eventually, but don't put up your money to find out if it is going to lose today.
Having said that, I am going to have to buck him in this race, not only because he will probably be the chalk but because his two best figures were in sprints and they were G2 rather than G1 races. Because of this I feel he may be vulnerable but he does have something else going for him in that he is quite versatile. He can run on or off the pace and is one of the few horses in here with good speed which should enable him to get a good position.
As you know, when it gets to the classic distances, I tend to depend more on pedigree than other factors. The problem with this race is that just about all of them have pedigrees that say they can get the Derby distance but we know that some won't, at least in this race. There are a few pedigrees I like better than the rest and they are Destin, who I like the most, Suddenbreaking news and Mo Tom but anyone of them are capable of getting the distance. In the past there were many believers in the dosage index which indicated that horses with a DI of over 4.00 had little chance of getting the classic distances and this was true except for a couple of cases. Nyquist has a DI of 7.00 and Outwork has a DI of 11.00 so that using the DI theory these two would be eliminated. However, my pedigree patterns say they may get the distance regardless of the DI. I do like Outwork's breeding a little better because he is an out crossed horse and when that kind is good they can be very good.
Before I give my picks here are some random thoughts of mine regarding performance:
There are what I call big wins put forth by horses that have run races in the highest company where they had the lead in the stretch and increased that lead. In this race there are Nyquist who had the lead in the stretch of the G1 Fla Derby and was increasing it at the end. Exaggerator did the same in the G1 SA Derby although on a sloppy track where the speed died. Brody's Cause did it in the G1 Bluegrass also.
And there are two who got big wins in G2 races and that was Gun Runner and Destin. Horses with big wins are always a threat to repeat and most of the time when I have bucked them I was beaten.
Another thought I have is that there are an awful lot of handicappers that don't really understand what happens in a horse race. For one thing, they don't realize that when horses tire they virtually slow to a walk. Regardless of the numbers, when you see a race where all, or almost all, the horses near the pace drop back and a bunch of closers come on to take the top positions, the pace was fast. A really fast pace can affect more horses than the leaders. It can often have an effect on horses running in the second flight if they are not too far back. What happens in a case like that is these other horses are taken out of their comfort zone by trying to stay within striking range of the leaders.
I believe this is what happened in a few of the preps like the AK Derby, the Wood and to some degree the SA Derby. The Wood went extremely fast early and the colts in the second flight were not that far behind Outwork and Matt King Coal who were waging one of the best speed duels I've seen in some time. None of the horses in the second flight were making up any ground and were actually falling back which left Trojan Nation the last man standing, so to speak. Because he was the only one who had done no running at all early in the race he was able to go by all of them except Outwork. I thought this was a super good effort by Outwork in light of the early battle he had. There are those who feel it wasn't much of a race by Outwork because he had only beaten a maiden. But it makes no difference who ran second because it could have been any one of them if they hadn't chased that pace.
I won't go into all the details but I think virtually the same thing happened in the AK Derby with Cupid and Gettysburg cutting the pace and I think the first five under the wire were the same ones lagging behind early. Of course, Cupid and Gettysburg are not in this so we don't have to worry about them.
Probably the same situation in the SA Derby but to a lesser degree. In spite of the rapid pace set by Danzing Candy he did hang a little tough. Mor Spirit, who ran second, wasn't all that far off the early pace and was probably out of his comfort zone also since the pace was a couple seconds faster than he is able to handle. This is probably the most confusing derby I've seen in sixty years.
There are two questions that are really bugging me:
Can Nyquest and/or Outwork get the distance? Their pedigrees are suspect but their performances say they might.
The really big question is what is Smith going to do with Danzing Candy? He is probably going to the front and to do that he is really going to have to gun right out of that #20 hole. If he does, will he be able to take back some and set a moderate pace or will the horse just keep pulling? If a blazing pace is the answer it could set it up for the deep closers like some of the preps. I think everything depends on what this horse does with the lead. I want to make some kind of decision so I am going to assume Mike will get the pace slowed down some and I'll make my decision based on that and my pedigree horses.
1- #9 Destin 15/1...I love his breeding but the owner may have made the dumbest move in history not giving this colt another race because he believes in a bounce theory. I'm hoping that Pletcher's skill at bringing a horse out running off a lay off will save the day.
2- #15 Outwork 15/1 ...I think his Wood race was one of the best I've seen. I understand they have been working him behind horses to get him to rate a little.
3- #4 Mo Tom 20/1...one of the 3 pedigrees I like and is the Uncle Mo that's really bred for the classic distances and if the race falls apart up front he could take it all with a good trip.
4- #2 Suddenbreakingnews 20/1...my other pedigree horse who has been getting some speed works and a shadow roll to try to get him into the race a little sooner.
A couple of others who have a shot at this...
#5 Gun Runner 10/1 and #17 Mor Spirit 12/1 have the running styles that could have them getting the jump on the closers and be close enough to the leaders to win this.
Big Long Shot- #20 Danzing Candy 20/1..this kind of speed is always dangerous.
Even though I am trying to beat him, Nyquist must be respected because he's done everything right so far. As a saver I'm betting Nyquist in an exacta box with those I have listed.
Good Luck
Saturday, April 16, 2016
ARK Derby 2016
ARK Derby 2016
Recently I had written that, during the course of my many years of handicapping, I had noticed that when horses that move up in class off of races where they had raced on or very near the pace, tended to come from off the pace. Most handicappers know that horses dropping in class from a race or races where they had lots of early speed were very dangerous no matter where they had finished in these races. This is because the pace is usually slower in the cheaper races. The reverse is true when moving up in class. It is for this reason I like horses that got closer to the pace when moved up, especially those coming off a maiden win.
There are always exceptions to the rule as in horses like Zenyatta who could win from off the pace regardless of company but this type horse is very rare. In this race Cupid is a prime example. He laid a little off the pace in his maiden races but when jumped into a graded race set a fast pace and pulled away at the end. Perhaps some of this was due to his being a May foal and just starting to mature and more of it may be that he is just plain classy. He has a nice pedigree and looks much the best in this field although there may be some question as to whether or not he can get the Derby distance and beyond.
Over half this field has classic type breeding and I kind of like Dazzling Gem's last where he moved to graded company and pressed the pace and hung in for third at today's distance although the time was on the slow side.
Whitmore looked to be a winner in his last two but just couldn't close the deal at the end. He did improve his speed in his last but Cupid proved to be too much for him. Is he a hanger?
Gray Sky has one of the better pedigrees in this but I have a question in my mind concerning the jocks. Geroux is one of the best but I'm a bit curious about his ride on this colt in the Rebel. Whitmore had passed him nearing the 3/4 mark and Gray Sky gave a burst and repassed Whitmore only to flatten out. Was this an over confident or misjudged ride on the part of Geroux? Why the jockey change to a lesser boy? I still have to consider this one because of his pedigree and the manner in which he ran last time and, his odds of course.
Gettysburg is nicely bred and has a couple of other things going for him, like Pletcher and JR, plus having had two races at today's distance. He does have enough speed to get position and maybe chase Cupid all the way.
I would love to see Suddenbreakingnews win this just because I like his pedigree so much. I don't care much for his form cycle because he looks to have regressed in his last although slop could help if speed doesn't hold up.
1- #10 Cupid
2- #11 Gray Sky...may be a sloppy track which would help..
3- #12 Gettysburg
4- #8 Whitmore
Long Shot #7 Dazzling Gem
Backstretch
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Florida Derby 2016
Florida Derby
As far as I can determine, according to the hundreds of comments I've read, this boils down to a two horse race with a slight edge to Mohaymen. The question then presents itself, how to bet this race, if at all.
First of all, I like Mohaymen over Nyquist for several reasons. Even though Nyquist is very speedy, and in a match race the speed almost always wins, I don't think he will run away and hide. Being that this is Nyquist's first try at 9f I believe he will try to conserve some energy so the fractions may not be that fast. If that is the case then Mohaymen may sit right behind him and be within striking distance. I think Mohaymen will collar Nyquist at the top of the stretch and Nyquist is then going to fade and that is where my betting strategy comes in. The difference I find between these two is that Nyquist has had two races over a mile and was losing ground at the end of each while Mohaymen has had three races over a mile and was going away at the end of them all.
This race somehow reminds me of Secretariat's Belmont with Sham. In that race, if you looked at the exacta payouts, you would find that by taking Sham out of the equation you could wheel Sec in the exactas and make money no matter who ran second as long as it wasn't Sham.
I am going to bet against Nyquist being first or second and try to dutch the race with Mohaymen on top of the exactas. I will adjust how many units on each ex to be sure to show a profit. I suppose there are other ways that could be tried in order to make a few bucks on this race but that is the way I'm going. I'm just betting that Nyquist doesn't get second.
Aside from the top two there is Fellowship who has run third to Mohaymen twice but even though trying to close he lost ground each time. If someone gets cooked on the pace he could pick up a piece.
Romans has an interesting horse in this race that has a pedigree that I really like very much. Takeittotheedge has only had one race, a sprint where he blew them away. He may be green and probably needs some racing but with his pedigree, anything is possible. I don't think any distance would hamper this guy. He showed a lot of speed in his only start and we don't know if he can be rated or not but his pedigree just seems to beg for distance. If he uses his speed he may be able to take some of the starch out of Nyquist. But, as in all races, it depends on how the race unfolds. What Romans intentions are with this horse only he knows. He's using a young local jock without stakes experience so is this a race just to see how the horse stacks up or is he actually looking for some points for the derby? Run second and your in the derby.
Majesto is nicely bred and has shown he can handle some distance but it took him five races to break his maiden although he did run third to Destin in his first race.
To conclude; None of these look to be on a par with Mohaymen, at least not yet. Nyquist also looks to be much better than the rest of the field but I just feel he's not going to come to this race with his A game and will be beat. I don't feel as if he has beaten anything really good despite winning the BC where he topped a horse he had already defeated 3 times in a row. In my opinion he is overrated and his pedigree isn't screaming distance.
1- #9 Mohaymen 1/1...the one to beat.
2- #7 Takeittotheedge 20/1...going out on a limb but I just love this guy's pedigree..I question his recent works since his last but it is what it is.
3- #4 Nyquist 6/5...he may win but I doubt it..
4- #2 Fellowship 15/1...works very fast but trainer says his speed can't be used or he will quit..
Long Shot #3 Majesto...could fill out the super..
As far as I can determine, according to the hundreds of comments I've read, this boils down to a two horse race with a slight edge to Mohaymen. The question then presents itself, how to bet this race, if at all.
First of all, I like Mohaymen over Nyquist for several reasons. Even though Nyquist is very speedy, and in a match race the speed almost always wins, I don't think he will run away and hide. Being that this is Nyquist's first try at 9f I believe he will try to conserve some energy so the fractions may not be that fast. If that is the case then Mohaymen may sit right behind him and be within striking distance. I think Mohaymen will collar Nyquist at the top of the stretch and Nyquist is then going to fade and that is where my betting strategy comes in. The difference I find between these two is that Nyquist has had two races over a mile and was losing ground at the end of each while Mohaymen has had three races over a mile and was going away at the end of them all.
This race somehow reminds me of Secretariat's Belmont with Sham. In that race, if you looked at the exacta payouts, you would find that by taking Sham out of the equation you could wheel Sec in the exactas and make money no matter who ran second as long as it wasn't Sham.
I am going to bet against Nyquist being first or second and try to dutch the race with Mohaymen on top of the exactas. I will adjust how many units on each ex to be sure to show a profit. I suppose there are other ways that could be tried in order to make a few bucks on this race but that is the way I'm going. I'm just betting that Nyquist doesn't get second.
Aside from the top two there is Fellowship who has run third to Mohaymen twice but even though trying to close he lost ground each time. If someone gets cooked on the pace he could pick up a piece.
Romans has an interesting horse in this race that has a pedigree that I really like very much. Takeittotheedge has only had one race, a sprint where he blew them away. He may be green and probably needs some racing but with his pedigree, anything is possible. I don't think any distance would hamper this guy. He showed a lot of speed in his only start and we don't know if he can be rated or not but his pedigree just seems to beg for distance. If he uses his speed he may be able to take some of the starch out of Nyquist. But, as in all races, it depends on how the race unfolds. What Romans intentions are with this horse only he knows. He's using a young local jock without stakes experience so is this a race just to see how the horse stacks up or is he actually looking for some points for the derby? Run second and your in the derby.
Majesto is nicely bred and has shown he can handle some distance but it took him five races to break his maiden although he did run third to Destin in his first race.
To conclude; None of these look to be on a par with Mohaymen, at least not yet. Nyquist also looks to be much better than the rest of the field but I just feel he's not going to come to this race with his A game and will be beat. I don't feel as if he has beaten anything really good despite winning the BC where he topped a horse he had already defeated 3 times in a row. In my opinion he is overrated and his pedigree isn't screaming distance.
1- #9 Mohaymen 1/1...the one to beat.
2- #7 Takeittotheedge 20/1...going out on a limb but I just love this guy's pedigree..I question his recent works since his last but it is what it is.
3- #4 Nyquist 6/5...he may win but I doubt it..
4- #2 Fellowship 15/1...works very fast but trainer says his speed can't be used or he will quit..
Long Shot #3 Majesto...could fill out the super..
Saturday, March 26, 2016
La Derby 2016
La Derby
I will probably regret this but I am disregarding Greenpointcrusader in this race. He did win a G1 as a 2 yr old and his claim to fame this year is that he ran second to Mohaymen but someone had to run second and that was a poor field even though it was the fastest prep so far. I attribute that to Mohaymen. The reason I'm tossing him is that, #1, I don't care much for his pedigree but I may be way off base with that. Reason #2 is his being away for almost 2 months and it's not easy to keep a horse on edge for that long. He's been working steady but nothing really sharp. I think the reasoning is that they want a fresh horse going into the derby but he has to get the points first and I just think the strategy will backfire on them.
The horse with one of the pedigrees I like best is Mo Tom. Not only is he well bred but he's been bringing his A game to all of his starts. The only knock against him is that he runs from well off the pace and is subject to finding trouble getting a clear shot. They would probably do well to keep him on the outside despite the fact that he would lose ground on the turns. His pedigree also says he should like the added distance.
Another pedigree I really like is Conquest Windycity. His sire is the only horse to win the BB Classic twice and Tiznow is actually an outcross to the Northern Dancer/Bold Ruler lines. He may be a horse that's a little slow to develop but they gave him 4 months off to let him mature a little. His pedigree sure says he should handle any distance. He hasn't run very fast yet but he's only had one start as a 3 yr old. With all the nice horses he gets it's about time for Casse to step up to the plate.
I'm a little undecided where to place Gun Runner. He has a decent pedigree and comes in here with some good connections. He's never ran a bad race but I don't know if he really wants more distance. A couple more jumps and he would have been third rather than first in his last. He should be around at the finish but may fall a little short.
There are a couple that have very nice pedigrees but haven't run in any graded races yet. Battery is one of Pletcher's well bred colts and is making his first start against graded company but his horses have a habit of always being in the thick of things in these situations. He has already won at the distance in his last and may be very tough in here.
Dazzling Gem is the other one I like. He is also nicely bred and has won both his starts. He is in very capable hands and should be up for a big effort. I have a feeling he has enough speed to track the leader and if he has any kick he could be well positioned to take this.
1- #6 Mo Tom 5/2
2- #4 Conquest Windycity 15/1
3- #1 Gun Runner 3/1
4- #9 Dazzling Gem 12/1
Long Shots #3 Battery 10/1 and #8 Uncle Walter 20/1..don't know what happened to Walter in his last but I'm throwing that race out and using him in some exotics.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
I will probably regret this but I am disregarding Greenpointcrusader in this race. He did win a G1 as a 2 yr old and his claim to fame this year is that he ran second to Mohaymen but someone had to run second and that was a poor field even though it was the fastest prep so far. I attribute that to Mohaymen. The reason I'm tossing him is that, #1, I don't care much for his pedigree but I may be way off base with that. Reason #2 is his being away for almost 2 months and it's not easy to keep a horse on edge for that long. He's been working steady but nothing really sharp. I think the reasoning is that they want a fresh horse going into the derby but he has to get the points first and I just think the strategy will backfire on them.
The horse with one of the pedigrees I like best is Mo Tom. Not only is he well bred but he's been bringing his A game to all of his starts. The only knock against him is that he runs from well off the pace and is subject to finding trouble getting a clear shot. They would probably do well to keep him on the outside despite the fact that he would lose ground on the turns. His pedigree also says he should like the added distance.
Another pedigree I really like is Conquest Windycity. His sire is the only horse to win the BB Classic twice and Tiznow is actually an outcross to the Northern Dancer/Bold Ruler lines. He may be a horse that's a little slow to develop but they gave him 4 months off to let him mature a little. His pedigree sure says he should handle any distance. He hasn't run very fast yet but he's only had one start as a 3 yr old. With all the nice horses he gets it's about time for Casse to step up to the plate.
I'm a little undecided where to place Gun Runner. He has a decent pedigree and comes in here with some good connections. He's never ran a bad race but I don't know if he really wants more distance. A couple more jumps and he would have been third rather than first in his last. He should be around at the finish but may fall a little short.
There are a couple that have very nice pedigrees but haven't run in any graded races yet. Battery is one of Pletcher's well bred colts and is making his first start against graded company but his horses have a habit of always being in the thick of things in these situations. He has already won at the distance in his last and may be very tough in here.
Dazzling Gem is the other one I like. He is also nicely bred and has won both his starts. He is in very capable hands and should be up for a big effort. I have a feeling he has enough speed to track the leader and if he has any kick he could be well positioned to take this.
1- #6 Mo Tom 5/2
2- #4 Conquest Windycity 15/1
3- #1 Gun Runner 3/1
4- #9 Dazzling Gem 12/1
Long Shots #3 Battery 10/1 and #8 Uncle Walter 20/1..don't know what happened to Walter in his last but I'm throwing that race out and using him in some exotics.
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Saturday, March 19, 2016
Rebel Stakes 2016
Rebel Stakes 2016
This race, though not having any really high profile runners, looks to be a nice betting opportunity.A full field of 14 and at this point in time, no really outstanding runner although there's lots of potential floating around.
One must start somewhere so I am eliminating almost half the field on pedigree alone. This is not to say one of those I eliminate can't win because this is only 8 1/2f and it doesn't take a lot of pedigree to get this distance.
The colts who Have the pedigrees I prefer are, in no particular order; Cupid, Siding Spring, Madtap, Z Royal, Gray Sky, Whitmore and Suddebreakingnews. The good news about this is the possibility of catching a long shot or a big exotic.
The one whose breeding I really like is Suddenbreakingnews. He looks to be a tough customer who, but for a nose and a neck, would be undefeated. Although he looks like a stone closer at first glance, he did wire them in his maiden win at a mile and was only a couple lengths off a 44 half in a sprint. I don't know how many thousands and thousands of races I've handicapped in all my years but one thing I noticed a long time ago has to do with running style and class. For instance, it seems to me that a lot of these horses are able to lead or sit right on the pace in their maiden races but as they try to move up in class they start to come from farther and farther off the pace unless they are truly class horses themselves. There are rare closing horses that can come from way out of it and be very consistent, as in Zenyatta and some other greats over the years. Then there are some that can't win unless conditions and race shape favor their style. So, this race to me, is going to put Sudden to the test. If he can unleash another run as he did last time and get there or very close from this outside post I think we will have a serious derby contender.
Cupid is well bred but light on experience but it's hard to ignore any Baffert colt on this track. They have been high on this one but he is also a May foal and may have some catching up to do.
I have a hard time figuring out Casse because he gets some really nice horses but they always seem to disappoint. Siding Spring has a very nice pedigree and has shown some signs but has yet to live up to his breeding. I don't think he wanted the lead in the Southwest but was forced to leave in a hurry from the outside. He seemed to be a little rank to me and was pulling Rocco along. He was stalked by American Dubai and both stayed on quite well after what looked to be a fast pace. I think he may run big with a stalking position.
Whitmore does have some speed but ran into trouble in his last and then made a big move only to be caught at the end by Sudden. Ortiz is in to ride and with Whitmore coming up to his 3rd race for Moquett, who is a very live trainer here, this one is dangerous.
There are 2 entries in the race and I'm going for it with the horse killer Lukas's pair. I really like the pedigree of Z Royal and I don't know how much his early trouble in his last cost him. I feel like his blinkers off is going to help rate a little. I'm curious about the jock switch because Geroux has won with this one but rides the other half of the entrie and he is an excellent jock. The other half is Gray Sky who has already beaten Madtap who came out of that race and ran big for Asmussen.
This is a wide open race with a lot of possibilities so I'm trying to sneak a long one in.
1- #12 Suddenbreakingnews...really hoping he's the real deal and runs like Ribot who he's inbred to.
2- #4 Cupid..for 2 reasons..his pedigree and Baffert
3- #6 Siding Spring...just think he's better than he looks on paper
4- #10 Whitmore...good form and live connections
Long Shot #2 entry...bred too nice to ignore at big odds
Backstretch
This race, though not having any really high profile runners, looks to be a nice betting opportunity.A full field of 14 and at this point in time, no really outstanding runner although there's lots of potential floating around.
One must start somewhere so I am eliminating almost half the field on pedigree alone. This is not to say one of those I eliminate can't win because this is only 8 1/2f and it doesn't take a lot of pedigree to get this distance.
The colts who Have the pedigrees I prefer are, in no particular order; Cupid, Siding Spring, Madtap, Z Royal, Gray Sky, Whitmore and Suddebreakingnews. The good news about this is the possibility of catching a long shot or a big exotic.
The one whose breeding I really like is Suddenbreakingnews. He looks to be a tough customer who, but for a nose and a neck, would be undefeated. Although he looks like a stone closer at first glance, he did wire them in his maiden win at a mile and was only a couple lengths off a 44 half in a sprint. I don't know how many thousands and thousands of races I've handicapped in all my years but one thing I noticed a long time ago has to do with running style and class. For instance, it seems to me that a lot of these horses are able to lead or sit right on the pace in their maiden races but as they try to move up in class they start to come from farther and farther off the pace unless they are truly class horses themselves. There are rare closing horses that can come from way out of it and be very consistent, as in Zenyatta and some other greats over the years. Then there are some that can't win unless conditions and race shape favor their style. So, this race to me, is going to put Sudden to the test. If he can unleash another run as he did last time and get there or very close from this outside post I think we will have a serious derby contender.
Cupid is well bred but light on experience but it's hard to ignore any Baffert colt on this track. They have been high on this one but he is also a May foal and may have some catching up to do.
I have a hard time figuring out Casse because he gets some really nice horses but they always seem to disappoint. Siding Spring has a very nice pedigree and has shown some signs but has yet to live up to his breeding. I don't think he wanted the lead in the Southwest but was forced to leave in a hurry from the outside. He seemed to be a little rank to me and was pulling Rocco along. He was stalked by American Dubai and both stayed on quite well after what looked to be a fast pace. I think he may run big with a stalking position.
Whitmore does have some speed but ran into trouble in his last and then made a big move only to be caught at the end by Sudden. Ortiz is in to ride and with Whitmore coming up to his 3rd race for Moquett, who is a very live trainer here, this one is dangerous.
There are 2 entries in the race and I'm going for it with the horse killer Lukas's pair. I really like the pedigree of Z Royal and I don't know how much his early trouble in his last cost him. I feel like his blinkers off is going to help rate a little. I'm curious about the jock switch because Geroux has won with this one but rides the other half of the entrie and he is an excellent jock. The other half is Gray Sky who has already beaten Madtap who came out of that race and ran big for Asmussen.
This is a wide open race with a lot of possibilities so I'm trying to sneak a long one in.
1- #12 Suddenbreakingnews...really hoping he's the real deal and runs like Ribot who he's inbred to.
2- #4 Cupid..for 2 reasons..his pedigree and Baffert
3- #6 Siding Spring...just think he's better than he looks on paper
4- #10 Whitmore...good form and live connections
Long Shot #2 entry...bred too nice to ignore at big odds
Backstretch
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Tampa Bay Derby 2016
Tampa Bay Derby
As far as pedigrees, this group doesn't impress me very much. I don't get a good read on most of this field but there are always a few that fool me and run better than I thought they would. For sure, I'm looking down the road at the derby distance and beyond so that doesn't preclude any of these getting the shorter distances with no problem.
I do like the pedigree of Destin because I've seen a lot of this type become very tough at any distance. The two probable choices in here are both sired by Giant's Causeway who is the inbred type who matches up with a lot of mares. I like Destin over Brody's Cause because of the tail side with his dam being Dream Of Summer who was pretty good herself and brings the In Reality line into the inbred lines of the sire.
In Brody's Cause I like the inbreeding to all 3 of Nearco's greatest sons. I would have thought this one would have had more speed but he looks like he wants to lay back. He sure looks like he wants more distance. Also, he's been off since last Oct. so he may need this race. He probably only needs to run third to have enough points to make the derby and he would be pretty fresh for that so I'm thinking he won't be cranked up too tight for this but I do like the bullet he worked a month ago.
I'm not in love with Rafting's pedigree but it is nice enough to do the job. I do like, as I've mentioned elsewhere, the fact of a lot of good horses turning up lately with some close breeding to Royal Charger through his son Turn To and this guy's female side is full of Turn To.
Morning Fire is nicely bred but has been doing a lot of sprinting. He's already started 9 times and only his last has been over a mile but he's never been off the board. I am just wondering if he can or will be rated a little. There looks to be a lot of speed in here and trying to steal this seems to be wishful thinking.
This race looks like it's setting up to favor someone coming from off the pace but sometimes the jocks fool us and themselves when nobody wants to go to the front. They get so afraid of getting caught in a speed duel that everybody hangs back and, without really intending to, someone finds themselves on the lead and nobody chasing. Jock strategy can fool us a lot and make for upsets.
1- #7 Destin 9/2..only question I have is, did JR pick Outwork over this one?
2- #2 Rafting 6/1
3- #8 Brody's Cause 5/2
4- #1 Morning Fire 15/1
Long Shot #9 Tale of S'avall #9 12/1..simply because of his breeding..
Backstretch
As far as pedigrees, this group doesn't impress me very much. I don't get a good read on most of this field but there are always a few that fool me and run better than I thought they would. For sure, I'm looking down the road at the derby distance and beyond so that doesn't preclude any of these getting the shorter distances with no problem.
I do like the pedigree of Destin because I've seen a lot of this type become very tough at any distance. The two probable choices in here are both sired by Giant's Causeway who is the inbred type who matches up with a lot of mares. I like Destin over Brody's Cause because of the tail side with his dam being Dream Of Summer who was pretty good herself and brings the In Reality line into the inbred lines of the sire.
In Brody's Cause I like the inbreeding to all 3 of Nearco's greatest sons. I would have thought this one would have had more speed but he looks like he wants to lay back. He sure looks like he wants more distance. Also, he's been off since last Oct. so he may need this race. He probably only needs to run third to have enough points to make the derby and he would be pretty fresh for that so I'm thinking he won't be cranked up too tight for this but I do like the bullet he worked a month ago.
I'm not in love with Rafting's pedigree but it is nice enough to do the job. I do like, as I've mentioned elsewhere, the fact of a lot of good horses turning up lately with some close breeding to Royal Charger through his son Turn To and this guy's female side is full of Turn To.
Morning Fire is nicely bred but has been doing a lot of sprinting. He's already started 9 times and only his last has been over a mile but he's never been off the board. I am just wondering if he can or will be rated a little. There looks to be a lot of speed in here and trying to steal this seems to be wishful thinking.
This race looks like it's setting up to favor someone coming from off the pace but sometimes the jocks fool us and themselves when nobody wants to go to the front. They get so afraid of getting caught in a speed duel that everybody hangs back and, without really intending to, someone finds themselves on the lead and nobody chasing. Jock strategy can fool us a lot and make for upsets.
1- #7 Destin 9/2..only question I have is, did JR pick Outwork over this one?
2- #2 Rafting 6/1
3- #8 Brody's Cause 5/2
4- #1 Morning Fire 15/1
Long Shot #9 Tale of S'avall #9 12/1..simply because of his breeding..
Backstretch
Saturday, March 5, 2016
Gotham 2016
Gotham Stakes - 2016
This is not a bad field but I don't think the derby winner is in here. They all have decent pedigrees but there are some out there on the trail that are much better.
Shagaf is the favorite and is nicely bred and has won both his starts for Chad Brown who is getting some very nice ones in recent years. Shagaf hasn't met any graded horses yet but is highly regarded.
Sunny Ridge doesn't have the type of breeding that jumps out at you and it's a little hard to decipher but that hasn't stopped him from being right there when asked. He's only been worse than second once and that was in a sprint last year. He's had 6 starts and someone missed the boat when he was entered in a claimer in his first start. Don't let that fool you because there have been some great ones that came out of claimers. I remember the great filly Silver Spoon way back in 1958. She was entered in a claimer in her first start and ended up running fifth in the Ky Derby and is in the HOF.
Conquest Big E, a son of Tapit, is a nice mix of Bold Ruler and Mr P and went for some big bucks at the sale. The thing I have against him is that trainer Casse, through a couple of loaded clients, gets some really nice ones but they never seem to live up to their potential. They seldom show up when it looks like they should. This one has been up against some tough ones but has yet to score in a graded race.
Adventist had some problems in the Withers against Sunny Ridge and has some room to improve off that.
Rally Cry is one of two that Pletcher has in here. Both are nicely bred but he has Mo Power entered tomorrow so I don't know if that one will be scratched or not. I had mentioned elsewhere that Pletcher is taking a different route to the derby this year so we don't know if it will work out or not. Usually by this time his horses are dominating the prep races but not this year, so far anyway. Rally Cry ran into trouble last time against Shag but could be a lot closer today.
1- #7 Sunny Ridge..I'll stick with him here because he always shows up for the dance.
2- #2 Shagaf..may be best but I want to see it before jumping all over him.
3- #6 Conquest Big E..just because of the company he's been keeping
4- #3 Adventist...could be dangerous with a good trip
Long Shots - Rally Cry and Mo Power...neither of these look to be a Zulu but there is no Mohaymen in here either..Pletcher usually brings them out running.
Backstretch
This is not a bad field but I don't think the derby winner is in here. They all have decent pedigrees but there are some out there on the trail that are much better.
Shagaf is the favorite and is nicely bred and has won both his starts for Chad Brown who is getting some very nice ones in recent years. Shagaf hasn't met any graded horses yet but is highly regarded.
Sunny Ridge doesn't have the type of breeding that jumps out at you and it's a little hard to decipher but that hasn't stopped him from being right there when asked. He's only been worse than second once and that was in a sprint last year. He's had 6 starts and someone missed the boat when he was entered in a claimer in his first start. Don't let that fool you because there have been some great ones that came out of claimers. I remember the great filly Silver Spoon way back in 1958. She was entered in a claimer in her first start and ended up running fifth in the Ky Derby and is in the HOF.
Conquest Big E, a son of Tapit, is a nice mix of Bold Ruler and Mr P and went for some big bucks at the sale. The thing I have against him is that trainer Casse, through a couple of loaded clients, gets some really nice ones but they never seem to live up to their potential. They seldom show up when it looks like they should. This one has been up against some tough ones but has yet to score in a graded race.
Adventist had some problems in the Withers against Sunny Ridge and has some room to improve off that.
Rally Cry is one of two that Pletcher has in here. Both are nicely bred but he has Mo Power entered tomorrow so I don't know if that one will be scratched or not. I had mentioned elsewhere that Pletcher is taking a different route to the derby this year so we don't know if it will work out or not. Usually by this time his horses are dominating the prep races but not this year, so far anyway. Rally Cry ran into trouble last time against Shag but could be a lot closer today.
1- #7 Sunny Ridge..I'll stick with him here because he always shows up for the dance.
2- #2 Shagaf..may be best but I want to see it before jumping all over him.
3- #6 Conquest Big E..just because of the company he's been keeping
4- #3 Adventist...could be dangerous with a good trip
Long Shots - Rally Cry and Mo Power...neither of these look to be a Zulu but there is no Mohaymen in here either..Pletcher usually brings them out running.
Backstretch
Friday, February 26, 2016
Fountain of Youth
Five years ago I posted a blog about out crossing where I said I hoped there would be more of it done after what we saw with Animal Kingdom. In the ensuing years I have noticed more and more out crossed horses on the TC trail. Out crossed horses are designated on Chef-de-Race.com as NP/P or P/NP where the P stands for Phalaris and NP as Non Phalaris. This is designated through the sire and damsire lines by those who do this work. However, I take a slightly different tack being that I go back farther and I also look for the cross to be in specific spots in the pedigree.
In addition, I look for another step in the process which involves bringing the out cross back into the original INBRED line. Personally, I don't believe a cross works unless it is used with very inbred lines.
So, to get to the race at hand; The favorite, Mohaymen, is sired by Tapit and has the cross of In Reality, which is the old Man O' War line, brought in as the maternal G. dam sire line. He also has another pattern of Northern Dancer/Turn To which is a good sign.
Awesome Speed and Awesome Banner also have the same cross of In Reality which is also the maternal G. dam sire line. Probably a toss up with these two but I lean a little to Awesome Speed.
Zulu is another in here that has an out cross by way of the maternal G dam but this line is the old Hyperion line. This is a great long distance line and I think Vaguely Noble won the "Arc". He also has another pattern of Nearctic/Nasrullah which is very good. This is a superbly bred colt. It looks as though Pletcher is taking a different route to the derby this year and it's probably better than his prior method. Problem is, it's asking a lot for this colt to be taking on experienced horses like Mohaymen off two sprints. I have an idea this one will rate and may give the favorite fits.
I can't see any value in this race but it should be fun to watch.
1- #6 Mohaymen 6/5
2- #2 Zulu 3/1
3- #4 Awesome Speed 4/1
4- #5 Awesome Banner 7/2
Backstretch
Five years ago I posted a blog about out crossing where I said I hoped there would be more of it done after what we saw with Animal Kingdom. In the ensuing years I have noticed more and more out crossed horses on the TC trail. Out crossed horses are designated on Chef-de-Race.com as NP/P or P/NP where the P stands for Phalaris and NP as Non Phalaris. This is designated through the sire and damsire lines by those who do this work. However, I take a slightly different tack being that I go back farther and I also look for the cross to be in specific spots in the pedigree.
In addition, I look for another step in the process which involves bringing the out cross back into the original INBRED line. Personally, I don't believe a cross works unless it is used with very inbred lines.
So, to get to the race at hand; The favorite, Mohaymen, is sired by Tapit and has the cross of In Reality, which is the old Man O' War line, brought in as the maternal G. dam sire line. He also has another pattern of Northern Dancer/Turn To which is a good sign.
Awesome Speed and Awesome Banner also have the same cross of In Reality which is also the maternal G. dam sire line. Probably a toss up with these two but I lean a little to Awesome Speed.
Zulu is another in here that has an out cross by way of the maternal G dam but this line is the old Hyperion line. This is a great long distance line and I think Vaguely Noble won the "Arc". He also has another pattern of Nearctic/Nasrullah which is very good. This is a superbly bred colt. It looks as though Pletcher is taking a different route to the derby this year and it's probably better than his prior method. Problem is, it's asking a lot for this colt to be taking on experienced horses like Mohaymen off two sprints. I have an idea this one will rate and may give the favorite fits.
I can't see any value in this race but it should be fun to watch.
1- #6 Mohaymen 6/5
2- #2 Zulu 3/1
3- #4 Awesome Speed 4/1
4- #5 Awesome Banner 7/2
Backstretch
Saturday, February 20, 2016
Risen Star 2016
The Risen Star 2016
FG 2/20/16 R11
Is this the year of the Mo? Uncle Mo has started off his stud career with a bang. This race had 4 entries sired by Uncle Mo but Laoban has opted out leaving three which happen to be the leading contenders in here.
On the other hand the ML favorite is by the very old sire line of Man O' War which has all but died out. My data base is only in my head and the recall button isn't working very well these days, but aside from Col John, the sire of Airoforce, the last really good one from this line was Gemologist who was undefeated after 5 races.
Airoforce has a nice pedigree but he has no Northern Dancer cross as did the afore mentioned two. However, he happens to be more inbred to the old line. I really like him but am a little concerned about the recent set-back he had when he was forced to skip the Sam Davis because of a breathing problem. Hopefully he's fully recovered. He's only lost once, by a neck, so until they beat him, I'll stick with him.
There are only 5 in here that I don't think can get the derby distance. It's All Relevant has a nice pedigree but is one of those with the Mr P mares dominating and I've only seen one of this type get a classic distance and he was across the pond.
Mo Tom looks like the one to beat but he's one of those that comes from out of the clouds and may be prone to getting into traffic problems. There is speed in here which may provide some pace which is what he needs.
I think Tom's Ready has been out running his pedigree and unless he shows more I don't feel like he will advance in these preps..
Uncle Walter has classic breeding and has a lot of upside to him. Although he has a bad post I think his running style is the right one and JJ will manage to get good position and get the jump on the deep closers.
I've heard some good things about Gun Runner and he has the breeding to get it done. He made need a race so, although he may make a race of it, I think he will fall a little short.
One that I really like his pedigree is Dolphus. He doesn't have any numbers yet that would put him in the thick of it but has a lot of room to improve.
1- #10 Airoforce
2- #12 Uncle Walter
3- #2 Mo Tom
4- #6 Gun Runner
Long Shot #3 Dolphus...has been scratched so I will use #5 Forevamo as long shot
Backstretch
FG 2/20/16 R11
Is this the year of the Mo? Uncle Mo has started off his stud career with a bang. This race had 4 entries sired by Uncle Mo but Laoban has opted out leaving three which happen to be the leading contenders in here.
On the other hand the ML favorite is by the very old sire line of Man O' War which has all but died out. My data base is only in my head and the recall button isn't working very well these days, but aside from Col John, the sire of Airoforce, the last really good one from this line was Gemologist who was undefeated after 5 races.
Airoforce has a nice pedigree but he has no Northern Dancer cross as did the afore mentioned two. However, he happens to be more inbred to the old line. I really like him but am a little concerned about the recent set-back he had when he was forced to skip the Sam Davis because of a breathing problem. Hopefully he's fully recovered. He's only lost once, by a neck, so until they beat him, I'll stick with him.
There are only 5 in here that I don't think can get the derby distance. It's All Relevant has a nice pedigree but is one of those with the Mr P mares dominating and I've only seen one of this type get a classic distance and he was across the pond.
Mo Tom looks like the one to beat but he's one of those that comes from out of the clouds and may be prone to getting into traffic problems. There is speed in here which may provide some pace which is what he needs.
I think Tom's Ready has been out running his pedigree and unless he shows more I don't feel like he will advance in these preps..
Uncle Walter has classic breeding and has a lot of upside to him. Although he has a bad post I think his running style is the right one and JJ will manage to get good position and get the jump on the deep closers.
I've heard some good things about Gun Runner and he has the breeding to get it done. He made need a race so, although he may make a race of it, I think he will fall a little short.
One that I really like his pedigree is Dolphus. He doesn't have any numbers yet that would put him in the thick of it but has a lot of room to improve.
1- #10 Airoforce
2- #12 Uncle Walter
3- #2 Mo Tom
4- #6 Gun Runner
Long Shot #3 Dolphus...has been scratched so I will use #5 Forevamo as long shot
Backstretch
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Holy Bull Stakes
GP Sat. 1/30/16 R8
I haven't posted anything since the KY Derby last year due to health problems. I've decided to try to cover the TC preps and the TC races this year.
I handicap these races mostly by pedigree and some of these prep races are won by horses without my standard for the classic distances. A lot of horses have talent and can win these early preps but I am interested in watching the ones with classic breeding develop along the way.
As I figured would happen again, we have a short field with only a couple of real contenders.
Mohaymen has a really nice pedigree for the classic distances and seems to have the talent to go with it. Will be strong favorite, which he should be. Tapit colt went for over 2 mil and right now looks like he may have been worth it.
Conquest Big E also has the required breeding and Casse looks like he is about to have a strong year. This is another Tapit product but so far hasn't shown near the talent of the favorite.
Greenpointcrusader may have some ability but I don't care much for his pedigree. He may be OK in the shorter distances but I don't think he will like any thing over 1 1/8.
Of the rest, Frontier Ranger and Fellowship have the breeding for the longer races but so far haven't shown they are ready to compete at this level. One of them might improve enough to get a small piece but don't look to be a threat to the top two.
1- #2 Mohaymen
2- #4 Conquest Big E
3- #5 Greenpointcrusader
Doesn't look to be any value in this race at all, not even in the exotics, so I will just watch it.
Backstretch
GP Sat. 1/30/16 R8
I haven't posted anything since the KY Derby last year due to health problems. I've decided to try to cover the TC preps and the TC races this year.
I handicap these races mostly by pedigree and some of these prep races are won by horses without my standard for the classic distances. A lot of horses have talent and can win these early preps but I am interested in watching the ones with classic breeding develop along the way.
As I figured would happen again, we have a short field with only a couple of real contenders.
Mohaymen has a really nice pedigree for the classic distances and seems to have the talent to go with it. Will be strong favorite, which he should be. Tapit colt went for over 2 mil and right now looks like he may have been worth it.
Conquest Big E also has the required breeding and Casse looks like he is about to have a strong year. This is another Tapit product but so far hasn't shown near the talent of the favorite.
Greenpointcrusader may have some ability but I don't care much for his pedigree. He may be OK in the shorter distances but I don't think he will like any thing over 1 1/8.
Of the rest, Frontier Ranger and Fellowship have the breeding for the longer races but so far haven't shown they are ready to compete at this level. One of them might improve enough to get a small piece but don't look to be a threat to the top two.
1- #2 Mohaymen
2- #4 Conquest Big E
3- #5 Greenpointcrusader
Doesn't look to be any value in this race at all, not even in the exotics, so I will just watch it.
Backstretch
Friday, May 1, 2015
KY Derby 2015
As most of you know I have certain pedigree patterns I use to determine if these horses can get the classic distance of the Derby and beyond. So the first thing I will do is eliminate horses that their breeding tells me they won't get those distances. The reason I use these patterns is that a very high percentage of Derby winners have these patterns in their pedigrees.
I am eliminating EL Kabeir, Firing Line, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z. Not that these are not nice horses, but I just think they aren't Derby winning material.
American Pharoah presents me with a bit of a problem. He has a really mixed up pedigree where it is hard to tell where the influence is coming from. There are many horses bred every year with pedigrees that don't really point in any specific direction and the majority don't turn out to be much. Every now and then one clicks and is very good, so this guy, with what he has done and all the raves about him, just might be really good.
Except for the ones I have eliminated the rest of the field has patterns that I feel qualify them to win this race. There are a few that have pedigrees that I favor over the rest and there are some that look to be a little too slow to get there in time. Naturally, even if all had equal breeding, some will be faster than others.
The pedigrees I like best in here are Dortmund, International Star and Bolo. Dortmund has done all that has been asked of him so far. He is very fast and has shown a lot of grit in his races. International Star may seem a bit slow on the numbers but he looks to be getting faster with each race. He is a very determined and fearless little guy and when the races get to the classic distances it seems to be a different ball game. Bolo has a terrific pedigree but may be more geared to grass racing. He's tried dirt twice, both times running third to Dortmund, which is no disgrace. He may improve a little more.
Speaking of improvement, how about Frosted. They say he had a breathing problem which has been corrected. He really stepped up big time in the Wood and there is something else I like in his record. One of my very best pedigree horses of the year is Leave The Light On who I was really high on. LTLO won the Remsen which is a bit of a key race for the Derby but was injured and off the trail. Frosted ran a nice second in the Remsen and if he improves off the Wood will be very tough in this fracas.
Along with Frosted, Tencendur also stepped up in the Wood although I don't think the rest of the field amounted to much. Having said that, I don't think any of the preps have been more than two horse races with all those short fields. Like everybody was dodging any serious contenders.
I can't leave the little guy International Star out. His pedigree and guts tell me he belongs. Materiality may not have raced as a 2 yr old but I think he will play a part along with his stablemate Carp Diem.
So, I have two wild cards in the race. I would like to toss American Pharoah but must use him as sort of a saver. I wish I knew more about Mubtaahij other than watching him race. He has a lovely pedigree with Sea Bird as the dam sire, something quite rare in this country. He made a Hugh move in his last to win easily but there are those who question the company he beat. I would say, who did most of the others beat? As I already stated, most of these prep races were two horse races, if that.
I'm going with Dortmund to win and I will use him on top of my exotics and key him on top with American Pharoah and Mubtaahij.
1-#8 Dortmund
2- #15 Frosted
3- #2 Carp Diem
4- #12 International Star
Long Shots-#4 Tencendur
#3 Materiality
#9 Bolo
Bets- 8/15,2,12,/3,4,9
8,18/8,18/15,2,12,/3,4,9
8,6/8,6/15,2,12/3,4,9
Good Luck to all.
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Arkansas Derby
It seems to be a forgone conclusion that with American Pharoah in this race that everyone else is running for second money. This may well be true but I don't feel as though it will have much effect on the Derby itself.
As most handicappers know, the best bet in racing is if the horse is the lone speed or is the speed of the speed and can get an easy lead without ever being pressed. In the case of American Pharoah this has been the case in his last three races. No one really knows what will happen if he's challenged for the lead as he was in his first race and ended up packing it in. However it turns out, I, for one, do not think he can get the derby distance anyway. His pedigree doesn't indicate to me an ability to get a mile and a quarter and maybe not 1 1/8 unless loose on another easy lead. So with some speed being in this I will try to beat him even if Baffert does seem to own these races.
What makes this race a little interesting is the presence of Mr. Z. He has run some really good races up on the pace against some pretty nice colts like Dortmund and Carpe Diem. If he brings one of his better races to the game we may see an upset in the making. Bridget's Big Luvy also has some speed and may help to contribute to a faster pace.
As many of you know, I have a set of pedigree patterns that I use to judge a horse's ability to get the derby distance and beyond. In most years only a small percentage of derby nominees have one of my patterns and over half of the last 25 derby winners have had one of my patterns. I don't know what's happened but this year there are an awful lot of them, in fact, most of those that already in have a pattern I like. Of course, there are some patterns that I prefer over others but any one of them is good enough to win. There are only two colts in this race that have pedigrees I don't care for as to distance ability and they are American Pharoah and Win the Space. All the others are bred well enough to get the 1 1/4.
1- #7 Far Right 9/2..has a great pedigree..is a true grit colt and seems to run best when fresh.
2- #5 Bold Conquest 20/1...just seems to be coming up to this race ready for a big effort.
3- #4 Madefromlucky 6/1...Pletcher horses always seem to fire in preps.
4- #1 The Truth Or Else 15/1...has a very nice out crossed pedigree..I've liked him all year but I think the trainer has his form cycle backwards..he does have a super work since his last...should handle any distance if they get him right.
Long Shot #2 Mr.Z...could put the pressure on and make it a 2 horse race with Pharoah.
I am going on the premise that Mr. Z will try to hook American Pharoah. Z gets a jock who is on fire right now at this track and knows what to do. I may be way off base and Pharoah will run away and hide again but if one thinks that's what will happen then it's useless to even bet the race.
As most handicappers know, the best bet in racing is if the horse is the lone speed or is the speed of the speed and can get an easy lead without ever being pressed. In the case of American Pharoah this has been the case in his last three races. No one really knows what will happen if he's challenged for the lead as he was in his first race and ended up packing it in. However it turns out, I, for one, do not think he can get the derby distance anyway. His pedigree doesn't indicate to me an ability to get a mile and a quarter and maybe not 1 1/8 unless loose on another easy lead. So with some speed being in this I will try to beat him even if Baffert does seem to own these races.
What makes this race a little interesting is the presence of Mr. Z. He has run some really good races up on the pace against some pretty nice colts like Dortmund and Carpe Diem. If he brings one of his better races to the game we may see an upset in the making. Bridget's Big Luvy also has some speed and may help to contribute to a faster pace.
As many of you know, I have a set of pedigree patterns that I use to judge a horse's ability to get the derby distance and beyond. In most years only a small percentage of derby nominees have one of my patterns and over half of the last 25 derby winners have had one of my patterns. I don't know what's happened but this year there are an awful lot of them, in fact, most of those that already in have a pattern I like. Of course, there are some patterns that I prefer over others but any one of them is good enough to win. There are only two colts in this race that have pedigrees I don't care for as to distance ability and they are American Pharoah and Win the Space. All the others are bred well enough to get the 1 1/4.
1- #7 Far Right 9/2..has a great pedigree..is a true grit colt and seems to run best when fresh.
2- #5 Bold Conquest 20/1...just seems to be coming up to this race ready for a big effort.
3- #4 Madefromlucky 6/1...Pletcher horses always seem to fire in preps.
4- #1 The Truth Or Else 15/1...has a very nice out crossed pedigree..I've liked him all year but I think the trainer has his form cycle backwards..he does have a super work since his last...should handle any distance if they get him right.
Long Shot #2 Mr.Z...could put the pressure on and make it a 2 horse race with Pharoah.
I am going on the premise that Mr. Z will try to hook American Pharoah. Z gets a jock who is on fire right now at this track and knows what to do. I may be way off base and Pharoah will run away and hide again but if one thinks that's what will happen then it's useless to even bet the race.
Saturday, March 28, 2015
LA and FL Derbys
La Derby:
Let me first say; just because I don't care for a pedigree this doesn't mean the horse can't win. All it means is that I just don't know which horses in the pedigree are going to have the most influence on that particular foals ability. Sometimes a horse with kind of a mixed up pedigree turns out to be really good but more often than not they are not good at the classic distances.
Most of the colts in this race have classic type breeding but not all will live up to their pedigrees. There are some that will turn out to be really nice horses but just not at the very best level.
International Star is very nicely bred with a perfect alignment of the Halo mares in his pedigree. In addition, having a sire line of Raise A Native combined with a dam sire line of Northern Dancer is a big plus. The Ramseys have been looking for a derby winner for a long time and, I'm not saying this horse is the derby winner, but I think this is the best shot that they have had.
Mr. Z is a nice out cross with Ribot and the Bold Ruler lines. I'm not a speed figure guy so I'm more concerned with the breeding and who has been meeting who. Mr. Z has given a good account of himself against the likes of Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Far Right, etc. He has been right up on the pace in most of his races but hasn't been able to hang in for the win. They are taking the blinkers off and he has a new jock in Kent D. who usually likes to come off the pace in hopes of conserving some energy. He has a very good foundation and I look for him to be very tough in this.
Keen Ice has a nice pedigree and showed in the Remsen that he can handle this distance and it wasn't a bad race against Leave The Light On who may have been one of the leading contenders if not hurt. He seems to be coming up to this race in good order and may be flying at the end.
War Story has the breeding for this but may handicap himself with the bad starts he's prone to. Was all out in last and may be tailing off a little.
A Day in Paradise has a really nice pedigree with a nice out cross. He's been quite steady being in the money in 4 of 5 races but has yet to meet any graded horses.
1-#9 International Star 3/1...on a roll and has guts
2-#2 Mr. Z 4/1........very little separating him from the top choice
3-#7 Keen Ice 5/1...should get a piece at the wire
4-#6 War Story 4/1...I don't see too much more being squeezed out of him.
Long Shot #5 A Day in Paradise..went head to head with War Story and hung in.
Lots of speed in this so there should be a lively pace. We may see some really dumb moves by the jocks so hold on to your hat.
I threw out the #1 which might be a mistake but I had several reasons to do so and I'll just have to eat it if he wins.
FL Derby:
There are only 5 of these that have my type pedigree so I won't go too far afield looking for the winner. I would really like to beat the chalk but it looks to be a tall order.
Upstart is bred nicely and has won his last two impressively even though he was DQd in his last. Looks to be a tough colt and the only question I have is how slow his last race was. Maybe he is regressing a little.
Itsaknockout is another of Pletcher's beauties and had a rough time of it in his last against Upstart. He's only had 3 races so has plenty of room to improve.
Pletcher again with Materiality. This year may be the best crop I've ever seen having all these superbly bred youngsters and Pletcher and Baffert have most of them as usual. Materiality has only had 2 races which were total blowouts. He got a really high speed figure which is impressive being that it was only his second start and it was at 9f. but I think the competition was suspect.
Ami's Flatter is by the same sire as the favorite but I am inclined to think he has a little more potential in his pedigree. His last race was the first with lasix and he showed a big improvement. Also, he ran second to Carpe Diem who I think is probably better than any of these. Another little item is the jock. I don't know the real reason for JJ taking this mount when he probably could have had Pletcher's horse Stanford in the La Derby and Stanford ran second to Materiality.
Quimet has, in my opinion, the best pedigree of the bunch. He broke his maiden in a claimer and somebody may have missed the boat on that. Zito hasn't had a real good one in a long time but if this guy wakes up it would be a different story. We know anything is possible in horse racing so if this colt would somehow come alive here I would consider him having a shot to win the big one just off his breeding.
1- #1 Ami's Flatter 8/1...going out on a limb here..even if he qualifies for the derby, unless he runs really big he's headed back to Canada.
2- #4 Itsaknockout 2/1...has enough room to improve to take this.
3- #9 Upstart 8/5...may very well win but I'm trying to beat him.
4- #7 Materiality 7/2..I just don't know if he's for real or not.
Long Shot #5 Quimet 20/1..just off his pedigree.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Spiral Stakes
These prep races have been terrible in my opinion and we are looking at more of the same in the rest of them. There have been nothing but short fields with short priced favorites and maybe, just maybe, another possible winner.
Compared to the top contenders on the derby trail this group looks to be a little on the slow side. Most of these have been running on the weeds and it's hard to say who will make a big improvement when finally getting a chance on dirt. At this time I'm really more concerned with their breeding and how they might handle the classic distances than I am with how fast they might be.
There are only a few of this bunch that have the type of pedigree that I look for. One of the nice pedigrees is owned by Royal Son who, with his good Beyer in his last, will more than likely be the chalk. He only has had one bad race which is hard to explain because it was against a field made up of a lot of maiden winners but I'll just write that off as one of those races that can't be explained.
I liked the race that Metaboss ran when winning the El Comino. He was really motoring at the end of that one and it was at the same 9f as this so we know he can get the distance. In addition, he also has one of the better pedigrees in this race.
Conquest Typhoon was beaten by Metaboss but he set and pressed the pace in that one and had some of the starch taken out of him. I don't think Smith will put him on the pace in this because there is some speed here and it would be smart to try to let the other speed wear down the favorite. He also has a decent pedigree so I don't think distance will be the deciding factor for him.
The pedigree I like best of these belongs to Dubai Sky. He's won 3 in a row on the grass so the question is, how will he take to the synthetic? He has shown he is versatile by winning on and off the pace. I would have liked to see him have a prep for this but he has been training well so it is what it is. He also gets lasix for the first time and I guess that could also help.
This track has a pretty good run to the first turn at this distance so I don't think the post positions will make that much difference. I'm thinking that Royal Son will leave again along with a couple others but he should put them away before too long. They might take something out of him but he should hang tough so I think someone will have to be not too far back and get the jump on the rest of the field to beat him.
1- #12 Dubai Sky 8/1
2- #1 Royal Son 7/2
3- #11 Metaboss 4/1
4- #9 Conquest Typhoon 5/1
Saturday, March 7, 2015
Gotham/ Tampa Bay Derby/ San Felipe
The Gotham
At this point in time I don't think any of these look like derby material. There are a couple that have pedigree patterns which have been known to win the big one but they will need to improve a whole bunch.
1- #8 Tencendur...was beaten by the favorite in last..was sitting in a stalking position and made a bid but was kind of erratic in the stretch..was racing in short spurts but was coming good at the very end...may improve enough to beat these at decent odds.
2- #4 El Kabier...is good at this distance but I don't think he can get the classic distances..he should be tough in this.
3- #1 Don'tbetwithbruno...has a decent pedigree..this is a step up so will have to race more to his potential.
4- #3 Classy Class..another that can handle just over a mile, as most can, but isn't bred for the longer distances of the classics.
Tampa Bay Derby
This race is a real brain teaser for me. I don't suppose it looks that tough to those that play strictly by performance and speed figures. The thing that I find most difficult is that in most of these prep races there are horses with great looking pedigrees that haven't exactly shown their best stuff yet. Then there are others that have run really good races but their breeding doesn't say they can get the classic distances.
Since this is all about winning the derby I am inclined to go with the better breeding and hope I am on one of those that all of a sudden show their mettle. And bag a big long shot to boot.
The two choices in this are Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight and I have questions about both. I just feel like the BC race was a fluke where the race totally fell apart on the front end. I think Texas Red made a long run from way back and they just kept coming back to him and I feel that Carpe Diem got basically the same kind of trip. I can't disregard Carpe because he does have a nice pedigree, very nice works and Pletcher knows how to crank them up.
I am up in the air with Ocean Knight's breeding. It's not the type pedigree I like but it is also one of those that are very good once in awhile. I thought the Sam Davis was a pretty weak field and this one was banged down to chalk off of one race, a maiden win in a sprint.
1- #3 Carpe Diem...has a nice pedigree, good works and a nice win in the Brdrs Fut where he ran down Mr Z who is a tough customer.
2- #7 Great Stuff...very nice pedigree, still a maiden but has great potential...has been running wide and needs a better trip.
3- #2 Ocean Knight...looks good but I feel he is vulnerable.
4- #1 Divining Rod...decent breeding...with Super Colossal out he may be the one to catch.
Long shot- #4 Ami's Flatter..well bred..first lasix...could improve enough for a part.
The San Felipe
The derby winner may very well be in this race. Two of my top 6 pedigrees are in this race and I'm looking for one of them to win. It was about 3-4 years ago that I posted on a forum that I thought the next Triple Crown winner would be sired by Big Brown, that is, if we ever get another. The reason I made that prediction was because of the type of pedigree Big Brown has. I feel that he would be a match for many, many mares so would have a chance to sire a great one.
Dortmund, being a son of Big Brown, looks to have a good shot at the derby and maybe the TC. He has a super pedigree and is sure living up to it. He is 4 for 4 and has shown a lot of true grit. His last was hard fought to the wire and was his first off a layoff so I hope he doesn't get a little bouncy.
Bolo is another of my top pedigrees of the year but has running on the lawn. I am anxious to see how he performs on dirt. He doesn't have to win, just make a good showing. If he doesn't do well I guess we can cross him off as he will probably stick to the weeds.
1- #3 Dortmund...may get tested in this..
2- #7 Bolo...big question is, how he will handle dirt..pedigree and works say it shouldn't be a problem..could take the top spot.
3- #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho...hard to read pedigree but so far has done no wrong.
4- #6 Prospect Park...doesn't have a classic pedigree but this isn't the derby either.
Long Shot #9 Sir Samson...has a nice pedigree..needs to conserve some energy...blinkers off may help
At this point in time I don't think any of these look like derby material. There are a couple that have pedigree patterns which have been known to win the big one but they will need to improve a whole bunch.
1- #8 Tencendur...was beaten by the favorite in last..was sitting in a stalking position and made a bid but was kind of erratic in the stretch..was racing in short spurts but was coming good at the very end...may improve enough to beat these at decent odds.
2- #4 El Kabier...is good at this distance but I don't think he can get the classic distances..he should be tough in this.
3- #1 Don'tbetwithbruno...has a decent pedigree..this is a step up so will have to race more to his potential.
4- #3 Classy Class..another that can handle just over a mile, as most can, but isn't bred for the longer distances of the classics.
Tampa Bay Derby
This race is a real brain teaser for me. I don't suppose it looks that tough to those that play strictly by performance and speed figures. The thing that I find most difficult is that in most of these prep races there are horses with great looking pedigrees that haven't exactly shown their best stuff yet. Then there are others that have run really good races but their breeding doesn't say they can get the classic distances.
Since this is all about winning the derby I am inclined to go with the better breeding and hope I am on one of those that all of a sudden show their mettle. And bag a big long shot to boot.
The two choices in this are Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight and I have questions about both. I just feel like the BC race was a fluke where the race totally fell apart on the front end. I think Texas Red made a long run from way back and they just kept coming back to him and I feel that Carpe Diem got basically the same kind of trip. I can't disregard Carpe because he does have a nice pedigree, very nice works and Pletcher knows how to crank them up.
I am up in the air with Ocean Knight's breeding. It's not the type pedigree I like but it is also one of those that are very good once in awhile. I thought the Sam Davis was a pretty weak field and this one was banged down to chalk off of one race, a maiden win in a sprint.
1- #3 Carpe Diem...has a nice pedigree, good works and a nice win in the Brdrs Fut where he ran down Mr Z who is a tough customer.
2- #7 Great Stuff...very nice pedigree, still a maiden but has great potential...has been running wide and needs a better trip.
3- #2 Ocean Knight...looks good but I feel he is vulnerable.
4- #1 Divining Rod...decent breeding...with Super Colossal out he may be the one to catch.
Long shot- #4 Ami's Flatter..well bred..first lasix...could improve enough for a part.
The San Felipe
The derby winner may very well be in this race. Two of my top 6 pedigrees are in this race and I'm looking for one of them to win. It was about 3-4 years ago that I posted on a forum that I thought the next Triple Crown winner would be sired by Big Brown, that is, if we ever get another. The reason I made that prediction was because of the type of pedigree Big Brown has. I feel that he would be a match for many, many mares so would have a chance to sire a great one.
Dortmund, being a son of Big Brown, looks to have a good shot at the derby and maybe the TC. He has a super pedigree and is sure living up to it. He is 4 for 4 and has shown a lot of true grit. His last was hard fought to the wire and was his first off a layoff so I hope he doesn't get a little bouncy.
Bolo is another of my top pedigrees of the year but has running on the lawn. I am anxious to see how he performs on dirt. He doesn't have to win, just make a good showing. If he doesn't do well I guess we can cross him off as he will probably stick to the weeds.
1- #3 Dortmund...may get tested in this..
2- #7 Bolo...big question is, how he will handle dirt..pedigree and works say it shouldn't be a problem..could take the top spot.
3- #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho...hard to read pedigree but so far has done no wrong.
4- #6 Prospect Park...doesn't have a classic pedigree but this isn't the derby either.
Long Shot #9 Sir Samson...has a nice pedigree..needs to conserve some energy...blinkers off may help
Saturday, February 28, 2015
Derby Contender Update
Updated Derby Contenders
Tier 1- These are the pedigrees I like the best, in alphabetical Order.
Bolo...still waiting to see if he tries dirt.
Dortmund...always gets the job done but some stiff competition awaits him.
Far Right...but for some bad luck he might have had a string of 3...tough guy.
International Star..totally fearless..reminds me of another little guy, Carry Back.
Khozan...stretched to a mile in 2nd start against nothing to speak of..showed he could take dirt, rate and move between horses..probably Pletcher's best of the 34 he has nominated.
The Truth or Else...been on my radar for some time but have been waiting for him to wake up...finally came alive in the Southwest...super duper pedigree. Will Borel win another one?
At the moment I feel that one of these top six has the best chance to win the Derby.
Tier 2- Very good, just a notch below the best.
Bold Conquest..deserves a chance again..looked a little short in last.
Carpe Diem...waiting for next start
Competitive Edge...waiting for him also.
Itsaknockout...showed he has the talent in only his 3rd start..needs a bit more oomph.
Upstart...don't know how he got left out...had to edit him in
War Story..trying to live up to his breeding...good try against Far Right.
Tier 3- Pedigrees are good enough if an exceptional talent.
Frosted..doesn't look like he is going to outrun his pedigree..may be a cut below
J S Bach...scratched because of fever..had impressive race..wait and see.
Tencendur...this type pedigree has been known to win the big one..
Out Crossed Pedigrees.
Mr Z has already show he is talented and game. Out crossed horses are usually very durable so he should be a factor in all his races.
Hillbilly Royalty's Southwest race wasn't bad considering he hooked up early with Mr Z, took back and tried to come again at the end..give another try.
There are some others with nice pedigrees that I'm watching but they have to get a move on to make the derby.
Go back and read my post, "Is Breeding a Crapshoot".
Now the horses that my pedigree says won't win the derby;
American Pharoah
Bayerd
Danzig Moon
Daredevil
El Kabeir
Firing Line
Lord Nelson
Ocean Knight
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Prospect Park
The Great War
Texas Red
There may be some others that may have a better shot or be eliminated but I don't see any that I have eliminated already winning the big one.
Sunday, February 15, 2015
2015 Derby Pedigrees
These are my early Derby contenders rated by pedigree. Some of these may not perform up to their potential until they reach the longer distances because their pedigrees suggest that they should excel at the longer distances of the Triple Crown races. A lot of horses can get as much as 9f but it takes special horses to go beyond that. Actually, just about any horse can go 1 1/2 miles, but how fast? What I'm talking about are horses that can go the longer distances at a high rate of speed.
I kind of grade my pedigrees and use a couple of categories to show that, even though they all have classic pedigrees, some are better than others in my opinion. With over 400 horses nominated to the Derby I have only rated the ones that have shown some talent but I'm sure there may be others that will show up.
Tier 1 has the pedigrees I like best for the classic distances. In alphabetical order;
Bolo...will probably stick to turf races.
Dortmund
Far Right
International Star
Khozan
Tier 2;
Carpe Diem
Competitive Edge
Itsaknockout
War Story
Tier 3;
Frosted
J S Bach
Upstart
I also look for out crossed horses that can turn out to be really good if the cross takes. A good example was Animal Kingdom who I liked in the Derby and turned into a world class horse.
A couple of interesting crosses this year are Mr Z and Tiznow R J and I am watching them closely.
I will update the list as the season progresses.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Is Breeding a Crapshoot?
Breeding a champion has always been considered a combination of planning and good luck. The planning is comprised of doing what is considered the logical process of mating the best to the best which is what, those in a position to do so, try to do. The luck is determined by which animals in the pedigree exert the most influence on the final result.
Since most pedigrees, especially those produced by the leading breeders, contain many champions in the ancestry, how may one determine which ones will have the most say as to what kind of offspring is produced?
When a really promising youngster appears there will be a lot of writers delving into the breeding of the horse and try to assert the prime reasons why this horse is so good. They will generally give the accomplishments of the sire, dam, dam sire and various other horses in the pedigree and state that the horse can go the distance or have a lot of speed, etc. because of the influence of particular lines or ancestors.
There are some, like myself, who try to predict beforehand, which horses have the most potential to be really good. They will normally refer to the very good ones in the pedigree and say that because of these horses this or that particular foal should be really good. The problem with that is that a case can be made for an awful lot of horses that are bred every year but damned few live up to their pedigree.
For instance, there are over four hundred foals nominated to the KY Derby this year but only twenty will make it to the gate and there will only be one winner. If one looks at the pedigrees of the 400+ that are nominated, champions will be found all through these pedigrees. It would seem to be logical to assume that all those horses can't have an equal influence on the product of the mating in question. A lot of pedigree talk has been generated by the fact of the Raise A Native sire line being very successful producing Ky Derby winners. This factor should be tempered by the fact that roughly 50% of the nominees are of that line which would mean one only has about two hundred horses to choose from. Only about 25% have one of my patterns and less than that sport my two dominate Derby patterns.
I have devoted myself to the study of pedigrees for over 50 years and found a lot of unanswered questions. For instance, why is it that so many highly regarded stallions fail to produce champions like themselves? How is it that unraced mares or those that have failed to distinguish themselves on the race track are able to foal champions? If the sire is so important, as most would have you believe, why is it that in the past 75 years there have been only 4 sires that have produced more than one Ky Derby winner? And of these 4 there were two, Sir Gallahad and Bull Lea, who did it when there were less than seven thousand foals born in the year. Sixty years ago the breeding industry was dominated by the few farms that had really good horses to breed from and the owners of the top stallions were very particular as to the mares that could be serviced. The last stallion to sire two Derby winners was Maria's Mon in 2001 and 1010 and that was after a gap of 22 years following Bold Bidder who did it in 1974 and 1979.
I decided many years ago that breeding the best to the best may have been a good starting point in the beginning but when as many as 35,000 horses have been bred in a single year, although the numbers are down to about 20,000 this year, probably because of economic considerations, trying to decide what horses are going to have the most influence in a pedigree would be a monumental task considering that there are 62 horses in a 5 generation pedigree.
When I first started to study pedigrees it came to me that the study of pedigrees, as far as I could determine, wasn't researched the way most science is. I couldn't figure out how one could point to certain horses in a pedigree and say, that because of this or that particular horse, the foal should or shouldn't have any particular abilities.
It is my belief that the mares are the conduit by which the abilities of the sires are passed on to the succeeding generations. However, with so many mares being in a pedigree, how would one begin to tell which ones would pass on who's genes. As to the dams of derby winners and a lot of other great horses, there are many, many mares that were unraced or lightly raced and had done very little on the track but were able to produce great horses.
After years of study I began to notice patterns emerging from the chaos. The way the females in a pedigree are aligned with one another seems to have a huge influence on the talent of the offspring. I believe that when the mares are in proper alignment they create a free flowing conduit of the genes of the good sires in the ancestry.
I finally settled on four basic patterns that looked to produce an awful lot of very good horses. Of these four patterns there were two that were dominate and were more noticeable in Derby winners. In the last 26 years, since 1988, 14 derby winners have had one of my 2 patterns. This cuts the odds of being on the right horse considerably. And, we must also realize that, even if every horse had exactly the same pedigree, some would be better than others.
There are also the horses with no discernible patterns to consider. These are horses with a lot of random ancestors and we can find a whole bunch of these so there are bound to be some that turn out to be good. But, I find that horses with a Heinz "57" pedigree that are really good are a very small percentage of the total bred.
I also don't find it odd that of the nominees trained by Baffert and Pletcher there are an abnormal number that have pedigrees containing my two best patterns. Perhaps this is the result of very good planning on the part of those who have bred these horses
I will soon be blogging the horses that I think have the best chance to get the Derby distance and longer. I plan to resume my newsletter where I will give my pedigree picks every week for the races leading up to the Triple Crown. If interested in subscribing to the newsletter send me an e mail.
Backstretch
backstretch33@gmail.com
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Delta Jackpot 2014
Delta Jackpot
Sat. 11/22/14 R7 Delta Downs
I haven't bothered keeping up with the 2 yr old races this year because I am only interested in the Triple Crown and the races leading up to it.
Personally, I don't think these early races for 2 yr old horses have too much bearing on the TC races, mainly because of the distances that are run. It doesn't take much of a pedigree to get sprints or distances of just over a mile. It does take classical breeding to get a mile and a quarter or more however. Even though 1 1/16 miles can be handled by many horses, the ones with the really good pedigrees do seem to have an advantage. This is assuming the horse is in good form but a lot of youngsters that can get the longer distances sometimes take a little longer to develop.
There are some very sharp colts in this race but I only find a couple who may be sticking around as the distances get longer and the competition tougher. I am handicapping this race mostly by pedigree because I've found that it is the best way to nail those long shots that pop up every year.
Golden Actor is nicely bred and has patterns that indicate he should be able to get the classic distances. At this stage of the game we also have to assess the performances they put forth because they need both pedigree and talent.
Far Right has a combination of my favorite pedigree patterns and I think, although at this point it's hard to say how much class he will show, he should get better as he stretches out to the longer distances.
Mr. Z is very inbred to the Bold Ruler line and I don't think any line has produced as many Derby winners as this one. He looks to be very speedy and has run second to Carpe Diem who was the chalk in the BC Juvy. The BC was won by Texas Red who came from left field to get home first with Carpe Diem second. Mr Z was in a 3 way race for the lead on very fast fractions. They claim that the track was very quick that day so the pace wasn't all that fast, at least that's what people say, but the horses say differently. This looks to be the one to beat but will be short odds so I'll buck him.
Conquest Tsunami looks like a need to lead type and can win races that he can steal but I don't think he can get much distance.
Prime Engine has won both his races including a stretch out but his breeding tells me he will have trouble at the longer distances.
Ocho Ocho Ocho has a pedigree that is a little hard to read and could go either way. Has won both his starts and looks to be a stalker so may handle the longer routes.
1- #6 Golden Actor
2- #3 Mr. Z
3- #9 Far Right
4- #10 Ocho Ocho Ocho
Good Luck,
Backstretch
Sat. 11/22/14 R7 Delta Downs
I haven't bothered keeping up with the 2 yr old races this year because I am only interested in the Triple Crown and the races leading up to it.
Personally, I don't think these early races for 2 yr old horses have too much bearing on the TC races, mainly because of the distances that are run. It doesn't take much of a pedigree to get sprints or distances of just over a mile. It does take classical breeding to get a mile and a quarter or more however. Even though 1 1/16 miles can be handled by many horses, the ones with the really good pedigrees do seem to have an advantage. This is assuming the horse is in good form but a lot of youngsters that can get the longer distances sometimes take a little longer to develop.
There are some very sharp colts in this race but I only find a couple who may be sticking around as the distances get longer and the competition tougher. I am handicapping this race mostly by pedigree because I've found that it is the best way to nail those long shots that pop up every year.
Golden Actor is nicely bred and has patterns that indicate he should be able to get the classic distances. At this stage of the game we also have to assess the performances they put forth because they need both pedigree and talent.
Far Right has a combination of my favorite pedigree patterns and I think, although at this point it's hard to say how much class he will show, he should get better as he stretches out to the longer distances.
Mr. Z is very inbred to the Bold Ruler line and I don't think any line has produced as many Derby winners as this one. He looks to be very speedy and has run second to Carpe Diem who was the chalk in the BC Juvy. The BC was won by Texas Red who came from left field to get home first with Carpe Diem second. Mr Z was in a 3 way race for the lead on very fast fractions. They claim that the track was very quick that day so the pace wasn't all that fast, at least that's what people say, but the horses say differently. This looks to be the one to beat but will be short odds so I'll buck him.
Conquest Tsunami looks like a need to lead type and can win races that he can steal but I don't think he can get much distance.
Prime Engine has won both his races including a stretch out but his breeding tells me he will have trouble at the longer distances.
Ocho Ocho Ocho has a pedigree that is a little hard to read and could go either way. Has won both his starts and looks to be a stalker so may handle the longer routes.
1- #6 Golden Actor
2- #3 Mr. Z
3- #9 Far Right
4- #10 Ocho Ocho Ocho
Good Luck,
Backstretch
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