Delta Jackpot 2014

Delta Jackpot

Sat.  11/22/14  R7  Delta Downs

I haven't bothered keeping up with the 2 yr old races this year because I am only interested in the Triple Crown and the races leading up to it.

Personally, I don't think these early races for 2 yr old horses have too much bearing on the TC races, mainly because of the distances that are run. It doesn't take much of a pedigree to get sprints or distances of just over a mile. It does take classical breeding to get a mile and a quarter or more however. Even though 1 1/16 miles can be handled by many horses, the ones with the really good pedigrees do seem to have an advantage. This is assuming the horse is in good form but a lot of youngsters that can get the longer distances sometimes take a little longer to develop.

There are some very sharp colts in this race but I only find a couple who may be sticking around as the distances get longer and the competition tougher. I am handicapping this race mostly by pedigree because I've found that it is the best way to nail those long shots that pop up every year.

Golden Actor is nicely bred and has patterns that indicate he should be able to get the classic distances. At this stage of the game we also have to assess the performances they put forth because they need both pedigree and talent.

Far Right has a combination of my favorite pedigree patterns and I think, although at this point it's hard to say how much class he will show, he should get better as he stretches out to the longer distances.

Mr. Z is very inbred to the Bold Ruler line and I don't think any line has produced as many Derby winners as this one. He looks to be very speedy and has run second to Carpe Diem who was the chalk in the BC Juvy. The BC was won by Texas Red who came from left field to get home first with Carpe Diem second. Mr Z was in a 3 way race for the lead on very fast fractions. They claim that the track was very quick that day so the pace wasn't all that fast, at least that's what people say, but the horses say differently. This looks to be the one to beat but will be short odds so I'll buck him.

Conquest Tsunami looks like a need to lead type and can win races that he can steal but I don't think he can get much distance.

Prime Engine has won both his races including a stretch out but his breeding tells me he will have trouble at the longer distances.

Ocho Ocho Ocho has a pedigree that is a little hard to read and could go either way. Has won both his starts and looks to be a stalker so may handle the longer routes.

1- #6  Golden Actor
2- #3  Mr. Z
3- #9  Far Right
4- #10  Ocho Ocho Ocho

Good Luck,
Backstretch