LA and FL Derbys

La Derby:

Let me first say; just because I don't care for a pedigree this doesn't mean the horse can't win. All it means is that I just don't know which horses in the pedigree are going to have the most influence on that particular foals ability. Sometimes a horse with kind of a mixed up pedigree turns out to be really good but more often than not they are not good at the classic distances.

Most of the colts in this race have classic type breeding but not all will live up to their pedigrees. There are some that will turn out to be really nice horses but just not at the very best level.

International Star is very nicely bred with a perfect alignment of the Halo mares in his pedigree. In addition, having a sire line of Raise A Native combined with a dam sire line of Northern Dancer is a big plus. The Ramseys have been looking for a derby winner for a long time and, I'm not saying this horse is the derby winner, but I think this is the best shot that they have had.

Mr. Z is a nice out cross with Ribot and the Bold Ruler lines. I'm not a speed figure guy so I'm more concerned with the breeding and who has been meeting who. Mr. Z has given a good account of himself against the likes of Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Far Right, etc. He has been right up on the pace in most of his races but hasn't been able to hang in for the win. They are taking the blinkers off and he has a new jock in Kent D. who usually likes to come off the pace in hopes of conserving some energy. He has a very good foundation and I look for him to be very tough in this.

Keen Ice has a nice pedigree and showed in the Remsen that he can handle this distance and it wasn't a bad race against Leave The Light On who may have been one of the leading contenders if not hurt. He seems to be coming up to this race in good order and may be flying at the end.

War Story has the breeding for this but may handicap himself with the bad starts he's prone to. Was all out in last and may be tailing off a little.

A Day in Paradise has a really nice pedigree with a nice out cross. He's been quite steady being in the money in 4 of 5 races but has yet to meet any graded horses.

1-#9  International Star  3/1...on a roll and has guts

2-#2  Mr. Z  4/1........very little separating him from the top choice

3-#7  Keen Ice  5/1...should get a piece at the wire

4-#6  War Story  4/1...I don't see too much more being squeezed out of him.

Long Shot  #5  A Day in Paradise..went head to head with War Story and hung in.

Lots of speed in this so there should be a lively pace. We may see some really dumb moves by the jocks so hold on to your hat.
I threw out the #1 which might be a mistake but I had several reasons to do so and I'll just have to eat it if he wins.

FL Derby:

There are only 5 of these that have my type pedigree so I won't go too far afield looking for the winner. I would really like to beat the chalk but it looks to be a tall order.

Upstart is bred nicely and has won his last two impressively even though he was DQd in his last. Looks to be a tough colt and the only question I have is how slow his last race was. Maybe he is regressing a little.

Itsaknockout is another of Pletcher's beauties and had a rough time of it in his last against Upstart. He's only had 3 races so has plenty of room to improve.

Pletcher again with Materiality. This year may be the best crop I've ever seen having all these superbly bred youngsters and Pletcher and Baffert have most of them as usual. Materiality has only had 2 races which were total blowouts. He got a really high speed figure which is impressive being that it was only his second start and it was at 9f. but I think the competition was suspect.

Ami's Flatter is by the same sire as the favorite but I am inclined to think he has a little more potential in his pedigree. His last race was the first with lasix and he showed a big improvement. Also, he ran second to Carpe Diem who I think is probably better than any of these. Another little item is the jock. I don't know the real reason for JJ taking this mount when he probably could have had Pletcher's horse Stanford in the La Derby and Stanford ran second to Materiality.

Quimet has, in my opinion, the best pedigree of the bunch. He broke his maiden in a claimer and somebody may have missed the boat on that. Zito hasn't had a real good one in a long time but if this guy wakes up it would be a different story. We know anything is possible in horse racing so if this colt would somehow come alive here I would consider him having a shot to win the big one just off his breeding.

1- #1 Ami's Flatter  8/1...going out on a limb here..even if he qualifies for the derby, unless he runs really big he's headed back to Canada.

2- #4  Itsaknockout  2/1...has enough room to improve to take this.

3- #9  Upstart  8/5...may very well win but I'm trying to beat him.

4- #7  Materiality  7/2..I just don't know if he's for real or not.

Long Shot  #5  Quimet  20/1..just off his pedigree.