The Gotham
At this point in time I don't think any of these look like derby material. There are a couple that have pedigree patterns which have been known to win the big one but they will need to improve a whole bunch.
1- #8 Tencendur...was beaten by the favorite in last..was sitting in a stalking position and made a bid but was kind of erratic in the stretch..was racing in short spurts but was coming good at the very end...may improve enough to beat these at decent odds.
2- #4 El Kabier...is good at this distance but I don't think he can get the classic distances..he should be tough in this.
3- #1 Don'tbetwithbruno...has a decent pedigree..this is a step up so will have to race more to his potential.
4- #3 Classy Class..another that can handle just over a mile, as most can, but isn't bred for the longer distances of the classics.
Tampa Bay Derby
This race is a real brain teaser for me. I don't suppose it looks that tough to those that play strictly by performance and speed figures. The thing that I find most difficult is that in most of these prep races there are horses with great looking pedigrees that haven't exactly shown their best stuff yet. Then there are others that have run really good races but their breeding doesn't say they can get the classic distances.
Since this is all about winning the derby I am inclined to go with the better breeding and hope I am on one of those that all of a sudden show their mettle. And bag a big long shot to boot.
The two choices in this are Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight and I have questions about both. I just feel like the BC race was a fluke where the race totally fell apart on the front end. I think Texas Red made a long run from way back and they just kept coming back to him and I feel that Carpe Diem got basically the same kind of trip. I can't disregard Carpe because he does have a nice pedigree, very nice works and Pletcher knows how to crank them up.
I am up in the air with Ocean Knight's breeding. It's not the type pedigree I like but it is also one of those that are very good once in awhile. I thought the Sam Davis was a pretty weak field and this one was banged down to chalk off of one race, a maiden win in a sprint.
1- #3 Carpe Diem...has a nice pedigree, good works and a nice win in the Brdrs Fut where he ran down Mr Z who is a tough customer.
2- #7 Great Stuff...very nice pedigree, still a maiden but has great potential...has been running wide and needs a better trip.
3- #2 Ocean Knight...looks good but I feel he is vulnerable.
4- #1 Divining Rod...decent breeding...with Super Colossal out he may be the one to catch.
Long shot- #4 Ami's Flatter..well bred..first lasix...could improve enough for a part.
The San Felipe
The derby winner may very well be in this race. Two of my top 6 pedigrees are in this race and I'm looking for one of them to win. It was about 3-4 years ago that I posted on a forum that I thought the next Triple Crown winner would be sired by Big Brown, that is, if we ever get another. The reason I made that prediction was because of the type of pedigree Big Brown has. I feel that he would be a match for many, many mares so would have a chance to sire a great one.
Dortmund, being a son of Big Brown, looks to have a good shot at the derby and maybe the TC. He has a super pedigree and is sure living up to it. He is 4 for 4 and has shown a lot of true grit. His last was hard fought to the wire and was his first off a layoff so I hope he doesn't get a little bouncy.
Bolo is another of my top pedigrees of the year but has running on the lawn. I am anxious to see how he performs on dirt. He doesn't have to win, just make a good showing. If he doesn't do well I guess we can cross him off as he will probably stick to the weeds.
1- #3 Dortmund...may get tested in this..
2- #7 Bolo...big question is, how he will handle dirt..pedigree and works say it shouldn't be a problem..could take the top spot.
3- #2 Ocho Ocho Ocho...hard to read pedigree but so far has done no wrong.
4- #6 Prospect Park...doesn't have a classic pedigree but this isn't the derby either.
Long Shot #9 Sir Samson...has a nice pedigree..needs to conserve some energy...blinkers off may help
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