The Risen Star 2016
FG 2/20/16 R11
Is this the year of the Mo? Uncle Mo has started off his stud career with a bang. This race had 4 entries sired by Uncle Mo but Laoban has opted out leaving three which happen to be the leading contenders in here.
On the other hand the ML favorite is by the very old sire line of Man O' War which has all but died out. My data base is only in my head and the recall button isn't working very well these days, but aside from Col John, the sire of Airoforce, the last really good one from this line was Gemologist who was undefeated after 5 races.
Airoforce has a nice pedigree but he has no Northern Dancer cross as did the afore mentioned two. However, he happens to be more inbred to the old line. I really like him but am a little concerned about the recent set-back he had when he was forced to skip the Sam Davis because of a breathing problem. Hopefully he's fully recovered. He's only lost once, by a neck, so until they beat him, I'll stick with him.
There are only 5 in here that I don't think can get the derby distance. It's All Relevant has a nice pedigree but is one of those with the Mr P mares dominating and I've only seen one of this type get a classic distance and he was across the pond.
Mo Tom looks like the one to beat but he's one of those that comes from out of the clouds and may be prone to getting into traffic problems. There is speed in here which may provide some pace which is what he needs.
I think Tom's Ready has been out running his pedigree and unless he shows more I don't feel like he will advance in these preps..
Uncle Walter has classic breeding and has a lot of upside to him. Although he has a bad post I think his running style is the right one and JJ will manage to get good position and get the jump on the deep closers.
I've heard some good things about Gun Runner and he has the breeding to get it done. He made need a race so, although he may make a race of it, I think he will fall a little short.
One that I really like his pedigree is Dolphus. He doesn't have any numbers yet that would put him in the thick of it but has a lot of room to improve.
1- #10 Airoforce
2- #12 Uncle Walter
3- #2 Mo Tom
4- #6 Gun Runner
Long Shot #3 Dolphus...has been scratched so I will use #5 Forevamo as long shot
Backstretch
Hi Backstretch ! Native Dancer here. As promised I will be following your posts here!
ReplyDeleteby the way heartfelt congratulations for recommending the longshot Forevamo in the Risen Star ... I am sure many players have benefited from your vision there.
He has a very nice pedigree and his numbers weren't that bad..I was actually going to put him a little higher but at the end I decided to give Airo a chance on dirt before being discarded.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAiroforce is undergoing thorough examination to evaluate his standing toward the Kentucky Derby.
DeleteWell, the funny thing about pedigrees is that we all have a different way of looking at them..I concern myself mostly with the mares and their sire lines and their positions in the pedigree...I use sire lines that go way back..for instance Nearco had 3 sons, Nearctic, Nasrullah and Royal Charger and through their sons, namely Northern Dancer, Bold Ruler and Turn To they virtually dominate racing today..and I look at their lines as being the Nearco line..Look at the 4t gen of Uncle Mo and you will find 7 of the 8 sire lines are Nearco lines which tells me he is almost totally inbred to those lines...on the other hand, I don't consider any of the Nearco line in Airo..to me, his pedigree is all about Intententally and RAN which I don't think are a very good mix..
DeleteOkey! I see your point. When you say "inbreed to the old line" about Airoforce it then means the presence of In Reality (5x5)and even Raise a Native (5x5)which are not Nearco string...! Point well taken!
DeleteLooking forward to your comments on the Fountain of Youth this Saturday! Warmest regards!
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to remind ourselves that Airoforce and Uncle Mo have a lot of Northern Dancer in their families. Uncle Mo is 5x5x4 to Northern Dancer via Leo Castelli, Danzig and Dixieland Band. As for Airoforce, if we go to the fifth generation we could see there Lyphard, Nice Dancer,One for All, and the mares Cool Mood by Northern Dancer and Summertime Promise by Nijinsky.
ReplyDeleteI already understood your assessment on Airoforce though! and thanks for your prompt replies...
Delete