KY Derby 2015

As most of you know I have certain pedigree patterns I use to determine if these horses can get the classic distance of the Derby and beyond. So the first thing I will do is eliminate horses that their breeding tells me they won't get those distances. The reason I use these patterns is that a very high percentage of Derby winners have these patterns in their pedigrees.

I am eliminating EL Kabeir, Firing Line, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z. Not that these are not nice horses, but I just think they aren't Derby winning material.

American Pharoah presents me with a bit of a problem. He has a really mixed up pedigree where it is hard to tell where the influence is coming from. There are many horses bred every year with pedigrees that don't really point in any specific direction and the majority don't turn out to be much. Every now and then one clicks and is very good, so this guy, with what he has done and all the raves about him, just might be really good.

Except for the ones I have eliminated the rest of the field has patterns that I feel qualify them to win this race. There are a few that have pedigrees that I favor over the rest and there are some that look to be a little too slow to get there in time. Naturally, even if all had equal breeding, some will be faster than others.

The pedigrees I like best in here are Dortmund, International Star and Bolo. Dortmund has done all that has been asked of him so far. He is very fast and has shown a lot of grit in his races. International Star may seem a bit slow on the numbers but he looks to be getting faster with each race. He is a very determined and fearless little guy and when the races get to the classic distances it seems to be a different ball game. Bolo has a terrific pedigree but may be more geared to grass racing. He's tried dirt twice, both times running third to Dortmund, which is no disgrace. He may improve a little more.

Speaking of improvement, how about Frosted. They say he had a breathing problem which has been corrected. He really stepped up big time in the Wood and there is something else I like in his record. One of my very best pedigree horses of the year is Leave The Light On who I was really high on. LTLO won the Remsen which is a bit of a key race for the Derby but was injured and off the trail. Frosted ran a nice second in the Remsen and if he improves off the Wood will be very tough in this fracas.

Along with Frosted, Tencendur also stepped up in the Wood although I don't think the rest of the field amounted to much. Having said that, I don't think any of the preps have been more than two horse races with all those short fields. Like everybody was dodging any serious contenders.

I can't leave the little guy International Star out. His pedigree and guts tell me he belongs. Materiality may not have raced as a 2 yr old but I think he will play a part along with his stablemate Carp Diem.

So, I have two wild cards in the race. I would like to toss American Pharoah but must use him as sort of a saver. I wish I knew more about Mubtaahij other than watching him race. He has a lovely pedigree with Sea Bird as the dam sire, something quite rare in this country. He made a Hugh move in his last to win easily but there are those who question the company he beat. I would say, who did most of the others beat? As I already stated, most of these prep races were two horse races, if that.

I'm going with Dortmund to win and I will use him on top of my exotics and key him on top with American Pharoah and Mubtaahij.

1-#8  Dortmund
2- #15 Frosted
3- #2  Carp Diem
4- #12  International Star
Long Shots-#4 Tencendur
                 #3 Materiality
                 #9 Bolo

Bets- 8/15,2,12,/3,4,9
        8,18/8,18/15,2,12,/3,4,9
        8,6/8,6/15,2,12/3,4,9

Good Luck to all.