Newsletter #51 Recap

Newsletter  # 51  Sat. 1/5/13

AQU  R8  Jerome  G2

Not sure, but I don't think this race carries points toward the KY Derby although it's being used as a prep.

There are several in here with very nice pedigrees and at this point it might be kind of difficult to separate them. I really like the pedigrees of the top two choices. Vyjack has had 2 races and won them both but at a little shorter distance than today's race but his breeding tells me he should have no problem with most any distance.

Long River has a super pedigree with a nice out cross in it. He's already won at today's distance and that might give him a little edge. Has a bullet work since his last so should be on his toes for this.

Mudflats was a recent purchase so I suppose the buyers think he has a lot of upside to him. He broke his maiden last time at 7f, the same distance that Vyjack won at and both races were in the slop. They both won easily but Vyjack won a little added money race rather than a maiden so he may have a slight class edge right now.

Vegas No Show has a speedy looking pedigree which I don't think will stand him in good stead down the road at longer distances but this isn't a longer distance.

I don't see much chance for any value in this race unless there is a major upset which doesn't seem likely.

1- Vyjack
2- Long River
3- Mudflats
4- Vegas No Show
Long Shot- Notacatbutallama

The Sham G3

This is only a G3 but it does carry 10 derby points to the winner. This is another race where I don't see much value because I think the chalk will be really tough.

Goldencents is one that I had picked a couple of times because he is nicely bred and has been performing well. He ran a bang-up race against the BC winner, Shanghai Bobby, and came right back to wire them in the Delta jackpot beating a fairly nice colt, Bern Identity. Has a ton of speed and stamina to go with it. We don't find very many of this type and he could be a major player in the TC races.

Den's Legacy has a decent pedigree and ran third last time in the Cash-Call but was trying to close in that one against Violence. That race had a very fast pace with 4 horses doing battle for the lead all the way. Violence sat a perfect trip in that one but the horse that was on the lead the whole race hung in for second. My feeling is that Den's Legacy should have been able to catch the tiring leader but wasn't up to it. I may be wrong in my judgement of that race so I suppose Den may be better than I think.

I like the breeding of Dry Summer and had picked him for the money in the Front Runner but he didn't run a lick. He's been off for a couple of months and my feeling is they are trying to get back to square one with him. He has a nice series of 5 & 6f works and just might show some kick here.

Manando is another Baffert runner who has a very speedy type pedigree and blew them away in his first try at a little more distance. Cutting back slightly and if he runs to his last he could give the favorite a battle on the front end. My feeling is that if he goes for the lead Goldencents will put him away.

1- Goldencents
2- Dry Summer
3- Den's Legacy
4- Manando
RECAP
The Jerome wasn't a G2 race by means. Vyjack was the favorite and he is all out to beat a horse that may only be a decent allowance horse. I don't think any of those, including the winner, are going anywhere on the TC trail.

The Sham didn't have much in it either aside from Goldencents. He looks like he will make his presence felt down the line because he has good speed and looks to be able to carry it a distance. I liked that he rated just off the leader and had a good closing kick. Speed is always an advantage and he seems to be able to sustain it. All in all, I think he's a very nice horse and if he continues to mature and improve he is going to give them a lot of trouble in the longer races.
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