Newsletter # 50 Recap

Newsletter # 50

GP  R9  1/1/13  Gulfstream Park Derby

This is not a graded race for 3 yr olds but I found it to be of interest for a couple of reasons. One is that aside from about 5 horses, the rest of the horses on the TC trail seem to be kind of ordinary so any contenders could come from anywhere. Another item that interested me is the pedigrees in this race.

There has been a lot written in recent years concerning the inbreeding of our horses and the effect it might be having on the stamina and durability of them. An awful lot of our nice horses have been inbred to the Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector lines and these pedigrees became quite fashionable and bring high prices at the yearling and 2 yr old sales. Breeders have been reluctant to stray from this type breeding because they might feel they are experimenting and not sure what they might get and a big portion of breeders don't breed to race but to sell.

There are a few horses in this race that have shown some talent and their pedigrees contain very little inbreeding so maybe there is going to be a gradual trend toward more crosses and less inbreeding.

Undrafted is one with a lot of different horses in it's pedigree and looks to have some talent although he hasn't met anything of note yet.

Another without a lot of inbreeding is Sr. Quisqueyana. He is very consistent which is always a good sign. It's evident by his low selling price that not many were impressed by his breeding but that may happen quite often when new trends are attempted.

Star Contender has won on the grass and on poly up in Canada but has been in restricted races so we don't know how he will fare against open company on dirt. Casse has one of this years leading contenders in Uncaptured and has been doing very well in the last few years. He seems to be getting a lot of nice young horses recently.

I like the breeding of Purple Egg and he's 3 for 3 so I can't find fault with him until he does something wrong. I don't see him having a problem with distance and he has a couple of bullet works since his last race so I would assume he's on his toes. One question I have is with the jock. Lopez has won with him twice but is riding Itsmyluckyday in here but I have no way of knowing the reason. He may be committed or he may think the horse is better. There's nothing wrong with Rocco Jr because he has been getting much better mounts in the last couple of years.

Itsmyluckyday has a decent pedigree and has been right there in most of his races. I think he will be the chalk based on having raced in a graded race against a couple of nice colts and wasn't all that far behind.

1- Purple Egg
2- Itsmyluckyday
3- Star Contender
4- Undrafted
RECAP

Purple Egg was scratched so I guess Lopez was right in his choice of horses in this. Itsmyluckyday won this easily and actually paid a nice price @ 3/1. I really thought he would be the chalk at about 9/5.

Sr. Quisqueyano had run second against the winner the last time they me and did it again. I don't know as any of these are going anywhere but Itsmyluckyday did draw away at the end and looked good but as I said, this wasn't much of a field especially with Purple Egg out of it.
Backstretch