Newsletter # 17 Recap

Newsletter # 17  Sat. 4/28/12

CD R8  Derby Trial


Way back in my early days my favorite horse of all, Tim Tam, won the Derby Trial in 1958 and came right back and won the KY Derby. He went on to win the Preakness and finished second in the Belmont on three legs having broken a bone in the stretch run. We will probably never see the likes of that again since it's been 7 yrs since a horse went from this race into the Derby and it may be a long time till we see another.

Of all the horses Baffert has this year Paynter's pedigree impressed me the most. He and Bodemeister have a lot of the same horses in their pedigrees but I see more potential in Paynter down the road. I love outcrossed horses if the cross is introduced into an inbred horse. This horse is inbred to Northern Dancer and is almost totally from decendents of Nearco. The cross is from the Man O' War line and brought in through the perfect spot, the damsire. I really like this classic type pedigree.

 I thought Paynter was making a huge jump from a maiden win in a sprint into the 1 1/8 G1 SA Derby. He got off to a slow start but didn't run badly at all against 2 of the leading contenders for the KY Derby. He doesn't have to improve much to take this.

Bourbon Courage blew them away in his first two starts. Granted, they were both sprints but his pedigree tells me he can handle a distance of ground. This race is only a mile so it should be right in his wheelhouse. He looks to have a lot of speed so he's only been given some easy works and considering his speed figures for both his races he looks like a serious contender.

Hierro was highly regarded early on but so far hasn't lived up to his billing. He is eligible to improve off his last, is nicely bred and the distance should be right up his alley. Has top notch connections and Asmussen knows how to get them ready.

Saint of Saints has a pedigree that may not be suited for the classic distances but this should suit him fine. Romans has 4 horses in here but this one looks best to me. Seve has nice breeding but has had a lot of chances and although I think he's sitting on a good race, I think graded company may be a little over his head.

I don't know what happened to Motor City after winning a G3 here at CD. He was given 5 months off, tried the Swale and never got in the running. I just think he's a better horse than he looks on paper. Maybe he has some problems or has been mishandled but I'd like to see him regain some of that 2 yr old form.

1- Paynter

2- Bourbon Courage

3- Hierro

4- Saint of Saints

Long shot- Motor City

Backstretch

Recap

No big surprises in this one but I do question the jockey tactics. I didn't understand Garcia trying the front with Paynter. Of courses he's not all that familiar with the track especially in the slop. On the other hand, Leparoux gave a great ride to the winner.

I expected Bourbon Courage to go for the lead but he laid back which was probably a mistake because he was closing too late. At any rate the race didn't have any importance in regards to the derby but the top 2 might do later on.

Backstretch