Newsletter # 15 Sat. 4/14/12
I hate to bore some of you but I have some new subscribers to the newsletter that are not familiar with my pedigree handicapping.
I often pass up the form horses or favorites if they don't meet my pedigree standards for the classic distances. Needless to say, not all derby winners have the common denominator's that I look for in a pedigree, just a good percentage of them.
Another point is that I get a lot of long shot winners in the prep races as most of you know. The reason I'm repeating this is there may be some who might say I'm a bit whacky when I give my selections. It's quite obvious that you wouldn't need me if I were giving you the horses that everyone else picks. I believe that with the long ones I've picked already this year a lot of my followers have made enough to last the rest of the year.
Now to the horses; this is an amazing year compared to past years. There are really an awful lot of horses this year that are bred for the classics. Naturally, some must be better than others but I try my best to determine which ones have the most potential. A lot of horses don't run to their potential and a few who manage to outrun their pedigrees. There are also horses with a Heinz "57" pedigree which makes it nearly impossible to figure how they will turn out. On occasion a good one will turn up but for the most part they are rarely classic material.
It's been interesting watching how the horses are responding to the training methods now being employed by many trainers. A lot of them, especially Pletcher, have been going to the 2 preps before the Derby. A lot of these young colts have gotten a late start for one reason or another which may be attributed to design or injury or being late foals. Most of the early preps were won by horses with experience and these late starters have their work cut out in order to jump right to these longer distances without working up to them. There are some very promising colts that have only had a couple of races lifetime but there may be one or two that are very good and some surprises may occur.
KEE Sat. 4/14/12 R11 Bluegrass Stakes G1
This may surprise you but I am dismissing Hansen in this race for several reasons. Number 1 is that his pedigree doesn't meet my standards for the derby distance. I've mentioned in the past that his type pedigree can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and sometimes to 1 1/8 but rarely beyond that.
Reason # 2 is that I don't think he has beaten any very good horses beside Union Rags and I'm not sure Rags is all he's made out to be. He had those 2 big races at TP where he beat two fields of very mediocre horses. I know he won the Breeders Cup but that was kind of an unusual day and he happened to be very sharp that day.
Reason #3 is that in his last 2 races My Adonis was close to him and MA was badly beaten in the Wood. In the Gotham Hansen had a perfect stalking trip and the 3rd horse Finnegans Wake didn't run a lick in his next race.
In addition to meeting what is probably the best field he's faced he has to get an extra 1/16 of a mile. Unless he gets the easiest kind of trip I don't think he will win this.
I'm sticking with my pedigree horses and maybe I will score again. There are 6 of them in here but I will go with the ones that look best to me.
I'm going with Dullahan to win this. His pedigree suits me and he won the Breeders Fut. over this track. He ran 4th in the BC after having trouble at the start and was really running at the end. He had a very nice tune up on the grass in his last and even if he doesn't win this he will be coming up to the derby right on edge.
I also like Prospective who is 2 for 2 on poly and usually brings his A game with him. Aside from the BC he's never been worse than second. Has a real nice pedigree and could take it all.
Heavy Breathing has a classic pedigree and I'm not giving up on him yet. He battled for the lead at this distance in the Spiral and hung in pretty good and was beaten by a very nice colt. He doesn't need the lead and with the speed in here could get a ground saving stalking trip from the rail.
I haven't really figured out the pedigree of Howe Great except that he sure looks to be bred for the grass. He has run good on dirt so may just be a handy one. Four wins in a row is mighty hard to overlook and he beat a pretty good one in Lucky Chappy. I just have the feeling that speed won't hold up in this race and that's why I'm going the way I am.
Ever So Lucky has run into a couple good ones but I can't really figure where he fits in here. He's a nice horse that sold for over a 1/2 mil but to me he has kind of a mixed up pedigree. He must be a really good looking animal to bring that much money.
As I handicapped this race it came to me that this is the best field by far this year. A case can be made for almost any one of them. Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner and Politicallycorrect all have classic type breeding so I think that if your playing exotics you had better go deep. Of course, I could be dead wrong about Hansen and he may blow them away but he's not getting my money at 6/5. You might want to use him in the exotics or make a saver with him on top.
1- Dullahan
2- Prospective
3- Heavy Breathing
4- Howe Great
Longshots: Gung Ho, Midnight Crooner
Bluegrass Recap
I was wrong in that I didn't think Hansen would hold on enough to get second. He had no excuse as far as I could see. All alone on the lead with no pressure but ran out of pedigree in the stretch. I think he might be a very good miler but he's not derby material in my book.
I have liked Dullahan all year and if you go to my blog of 10/14/11, Mine That Bird, A Fluke?, I gave some reasons why I liked Dullahan way back then. Ran great today after a very slow start as in the Breeders Cup, and came a long way to win this. I think he's now set up perfectly for the derby but I wish they would give him some gate work because those slow starts are going to cost him down the road.
There are a lot of closers going in the Derby but I don't see any that can sustain a drive as far as Dullahan can. After that long drive to get into contention he switched leads halfway down the stretch and really got into another gear and was going away at the end.
OP R11 4/14/12 Arkansas Derby
I guess Baffert is intent on nailing this one too. He's won with 10 of his last 13 starters here so you know his horses will be tough. I think what's making it so hard to get away from the early derby choices is that everybody is dodging. A lot of horses that look really good haven't beaten anything to speak of. There's been so many preps with only a couple of contenders but this week the races look pretty deep. Everybody has been trying to find the softest spot possible in order to get some graded earnings but it's down to the nitty gritty and a lot of the hopefuls will fall by the wayside.
There are 6 in here with classic breeding but a few look better than the others based on what the've done so far. I guess Baffert's 2 will be the top 2 choices but I'm going to buck them. You know always go for the price horses.
I think Pletcher has a sleeper in here in Stat except he should have had another prep against some good ones. He did run second to Rags at the Spa but was then laid off for 6 months. I don't know what had happened to him. His last prep was good so I'm going to give him a shot here because I love his pedigree.
Bodemeister ran into a tough one in his first try against graded company but looked really good getting second. Really nice breeding and looks like he will be a good one. He needs to get at least second to make the derby.
Secret Circle is the other Baffert horse and he's already made the derby. This is a nice horse but has beaten some awfully soft fields, especially the BC wher it was a terrible field and he was almos caught by a foreign filly. The 2 races here at OP were also lacking in quality so I think he could be a little overrated. Baffert had said all year that he didn't know if he could go a distance but is going to try untill the horse tells him he's gone far enough.
I'm not crazy about the pedigree of Isn't He Clever but he's a hard hitter. Made kind of a premature move in his last and was caught late by Daddy Nose Best who had beat 2 nice ones at GG so I'm giving him a little play in here.
Cozzetti, Najjaar and Sabercat also have nice breeding. Cozzetti had a decent race last time in the Tampa Derby which didn't have much besides the winner and that Spring horse that broke down. Sabercat beat nothing in the Delta Jackpot as far as I could see. Najjaar is a deep closer that could get a piece with Calvin aboard.
1- Stat
2- Bodemeister
3- Secret Circle
4- Isn't He Clever
Long shot- Najjaar
Backstretch
ARK Derby Recap
Bodemeister, or is it BodeMONSTER?, demolished them and all the talk I see is about the big Beyers he ran. I like this horse and his pedigree but I have some questions when it comes to the derby. Firstly, in this race there wasn't much to beat beside his stablemate and you all know I'm not a fan of speed figures. Horses that get a clear lead and aren't challenged usually run a big figure. In fact, I see horses do this all the time and get the highest number they ever ran. I'm not saying Bode's race was a fluke but I'm not getting overly excited about it.
I will say that in this race Stat, who I feel is a very good horse but not seasoned at all, tried to track Bode and couldn't stay with hiim. Secret Circle was also trying to stay up there but Raffy wisely took him back a little and he was able to hold off the rest of the field.
How Bode fares in the derby will depend on what speed horses are entered, I guess Trinniberg is headed for the Preakness, and how they decide to position themselves. At any rate, I think the derby will have a fast contentious pace unless Bode becomes another War Emblem.
There may be some last minute defections and Mark Valeski and Reveron could get in which would change the complexion of the race.
The problem I have is that I pedigree handicap and I think over half the field has what I consider a classic type pedigree. This is very unusual because the most I've seen has been about 6 and last year there were only a few. I said it way back and it still stands; this is the best crop overall I think I've ever seen. Should be a terrific derby.
Backstretch
No comments:
Post a Comment