Newsletter # 18- Sat. 5/5/12
CD R Kentucky Derby
Well, it's finally here but I don't know if we're any closer to answers as we were a few months ago. A lot of horses have been eliminated because of lack of earnings and others fell by the wayside for one reason or another.
I suppose most have almost decided on who will be their play but are still looking around for some confirmation while others have their mind made up and nothing anybody says will change it. I'm not here to try to change anyone's mind but maybe I might cover something not thought about previously.
As you know my primary method of handicapping the Derby is through pedigrees but this year presents a problem with that. Horses that have pedigrees that contain my common denominaters are those I will refer to as having classic pedigrees and 75% of this field qualify. We must remember that just because a horse has a classic pedigree doesn't mean it's a winner. There were many with classic pedigrees this year that didn't do much but almost all the good ones qualify.
I have decided to just go through the field one by one and tell you what I think. I'll go by post position order.
1- Daddy Long Legs.....has a classic pedigree but has a few strikes against him. Draws the dreaded 1 hole, is being shipped here from over the pond and O' Brien doesn't even give them a work here and has a poor record in this race. He did win his last in nice fashion in a G2 and has run closer to the derby distance than any of them. Too bad O' Brien operates as he does with this race.
2- Optimizer....no classic pedigree and seems to be too slow...runs a good one on occasion
3- Take Charge Indy....I'm a little up in the air with this one...has a lot of nice horses in his pedigree but I just don't like the alignment of the mares...has the right ones but in the wrong spots to exert their influence...nice race in the FL Derby but I'm thinking he stole that one...will probably get bet because of Calvin..
4- Union Rags....nice pedigree being inbred to Nearco and having a son of Mr prospector as damsire...seems to find an excuse sometimes but has never run a bad one...has a jock riding in great form..
5- Dullahan....very nice pedigree and I've liked him all year...In my opinion he ran the standout race of the year in the Bluegrass by running down Hansen...it's very difficult to catch a quality runner who gets loose on the lead even though I think Hansen has a problem over 1 1/16...Dullahan made a long run to catch him and was just shifting into another gear in the stretch...very impressive to me.
6- Bodemeister...he may not have that much influence on the race itself but certainly makes one's head spin when thinking of the different possibilities...the big question in my mind is, is he for real...classic type of Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector pedigree and has run well in all of his races...of course his Beyer figure has impressed all that are believers in Beyer's numbers and I think that will make him the chalk here...my take on him is that he's a real nice horse but I'm not all that impressed with his win in the ARK Derby...in that race he had an uncontested lead and was never pressured...seems to me the only other horse in that race that has shown ability was Secret Circle who had already beaten most of them twice...in addition, Secret Circle looked to be regressing and had developed some kind of problem which has now put him on the sidelines for awhile...so, it's my feeling that Bode beat nothing at all in that race....I have seen a ton of horses that get loose on the lead and run a big number but they don't do it when meeting stiff competition...I also don't like his form cycle and think he will regress off that race...another point is that I don't recall any horses that ran well at OP doing well elsewhere and though I'm not a fan of speed figures, the numbers at OP this year seem to be kind of inflated...so, unless he's one of those freaky kind of horses I don't think he will be there at the finish but just in case I will probably bet a saver or two with him.
7- Rousing Sermon...don't care for his pedigree and seems to be too slow although this type... sometimes picks up the pieces if the race falls apart totally.
8- Creative Cause...a very interesting horse pedigree wise... his dam was the result of an outcross with the Nearco and Man O'War lines and he is a result of breeding back to the Nearco line..this is an F1 out cross which usually produces horses with Hybrid Vigor who are normally rugged individuals...he has never run a bad race or been out of the money so I see no reason to think he won't be around at the finish...I also like his dosage with 23 Classic points...tough to leave him out..
9- Trinniberg...doesn't look to have classic breeding and has never been a distance...has a high turn of speed which is always dangerous but I don't think he will go uncontested on the lead..
10- Daddy Nose Best...his pedigree has the right sire lines but I don't like the alignment of them..every other one is of the Nearco or Native Dancer lines, which is great but even though I don't like their placement he still has nice bloodlines...has won 2 in a row and is sitting on another big race...Asmussen usually has them primed up...Leparoux had commited to Rags so it's not like he's jumping ship...gets Gomez which won't hurt.
11- Alpha...this one has conflicting points in a couple of areas...pedigree wise he has those Mr Prospector mares where stamina mares should be and that puts him in with Hansen and Reveron in not being able to get the distance...on the other hand his damsire is a son of Northern Dancer which is a stong distance plus..can he or can't he?..he made a strong move in the stretch run of the Wood but couldn't sustain it and was losing ground at the wire...another point is that Ramon seemed like he couldn't make up his mind between Alpha and Hansen and finally went to Hansen...this horse leaves me with some doubts.
12- Prospective...this one is virtually a total inbred to the Nearco lines and has a bit of the very best ones...classic breeding of the type that is fairly common nowadays..didn't run all that bad in the Bluegrass and was very game in the Tampa Derby....usually runs a good race but may be up against it here.
13- Went The Day Well....nice pedigree...this is another out cross of the Nearco and Man O'war lines but I prefer to see a little more inbreeding to the Nearco line...terrific trainer and JR may have made a really good move hooking up with these connections...not quite as good a pedigree as Animal Kingdom but I like his performances so far...he's the only one in here that has really drawn away from the field at 1 1/8...many times horses that run a good number on poly can really put up a huge number on dirt if they take to it and this one has shown a liking for dirt down at GP...not really a deep closer and if JR can work a trip he could be very dangerous.
14- Hansen...we know he's very speedy but can also be rank...I think 1 1/8 is his limit and that's a stretch...I think the owner is making a big mistake with this horse because I feel he could be a brilliant miler...don't think he can hang in here even with a stalking trip.
15- Gemologist...a really good out cross pedigree with the sire line being of the Man O'War line...I also like the Northern Dancer/Olympia cross in the 3rd and 4th generations of the G. Dams on both sides...has done everything right so far and has improved his speed figures in each race at a distance...hasn't put up big numbers or won by big margins but seems to just do enough to get the job done...nary a hiccup in his program so far...I think he's sitting on a big race and we haven't seen anywhere near his best yet...if he wins this I feel he will have plenty left in the tank for the rest of the TC
16- El Padrino....another with distance limitations because of the Mr prospector mares in his pedigree...everyone was Ga-Ga over his Beyer's number in that opt claimer in FL but he was all out to beat Mark Valeski in the Risen Star...Mark is not a derby type and the rest of the field wasn't much...can't see him getting the distance.
17- Done Talking....had him on my early derby list and cashed in the ILL Derby...has a nice pedigree with the powerful Derby factor of having his dam being by a son of Northern Dancer...I know the talk is that there was nothing in the ILL race and his numbers are too low but I think he is vastly under rated...he's a very strong closer and if this race turns out to be one of those where there are 3 waves of runners he could be right up there in the final wave...Smith is a really good old time trainer and is bringing him up to this race right on edge...Russell said he worked like a machine...don't discount totally especially at 50/1
18- Sabercat....another good classic pedigree from the Asmussen barn...was already in the derby with his D. jackpot win so there was no reason to rush him...improved in his last and is another ready to throw a big race...a deep closer who is going to find it hard to get good position from this post...although a bit slow he should be motoring at the end.
19- I'll Have Another...has a pedigree somewhat like Creative Cause...he was one of my picks that won @ 44/1 in the RB Lewis...he and Creative Cause finished on almost even terms last time which was funny to me because those 2 are the only ones with an F1 pedigree...has some speed and may be able to get position somewhere behind Gemologist being that most of the outside posts are deep closers....this horse has had lengthy layoffs between his last few races and came out running but now is being asked to come back in uander 30 days...will it hurt him?
20- Liaison...a so-so pedigree and hasn't run a good one in awhile...in his 2 wins he beat a couple very deep closers by having the jump on them...I don't see him getting the jump on anyone from this post...Raffy bailed out for El Padrino..
So, where does that leave us? I can probably make a case for at least 10 of them but you can't get too cute in a race like this. There's an awful lot of luck involved in getting a good start and a better trip.
You know of course that in the case of Bodemeister no horse has won without a start as a 2 yr old since 1892 or thereabouts. Did you also know that there has been no mare to ever foal 2 derby winners? It's possible this year with Dullahan being as he's from the same mare as Mine That Bird.
Another strong fact is that 4 of the last 12 winners was out of a mare sired by a son of Northern Dancer and we have 2 of those in the race, Alpha and Done Talking.
I know who the top 3 are that I favor but when playing the exotics there are a lot of horses that I find difficult to leave off the ticket. I may just try for an exacta and a triple because I don't feel like betting my lungs to try to cover all the bases.
1- #15 Gemologist
2- #5 Dullahan
3- #4 Union Rags
4- #13 Went The Day Well
5- #10 Daddy Nose Best
Very tough to leave out Creative Cause and I'll Have Another and a super long bomb, Done Talking.
Here's my bets; ex 4,5,15/4,5,10,13,15,.....tri 4,5,15/4,5,15/all...I'll try a dime super 4,5,15/4,5,15/4,5,10,13,15/4,5,8,10,13,15,17....... just in case he doesn't bounce I will save with a Bode ex bx. 6/4,5,15
That's it folks..Good Luck To All
Backstretch
Recap
Hey Ma, I plum out thunk myself agin!
I had mentioned something about trying to get cute and failed to follow my own advice. There were 4 horses in here with out crossed pedigrees and I'll Have Another was the best one. He was crossed with the Ribot line which seems to be much better than crossing with the Man O' war line which the others have. Went The Day Well has the cross in the ideal position but it's with the Man O' war line as is Creative Cause. Gemologist is crossed on the sire line which I never like but because of his record I thought he might be an exception even though it was also with the Man O' War line. I think Gem had another strike against him because Pletcher, considering all the really good youngsters he's had over the years, has got to be the worst when it comes to getting a horse ready for the classic races.
I second guessed the trainer of I'll Have Another because the horse had won his races off lengthy layoffs and was coming back in 4 weeks. That's what I mean about getting cute, a big boo-boo on my part. I wasn't concerned about the jock as many were because I had bet him many times at Hastings and if he can be the leading jock at a rough and tumble bullring I guess he can hold his own anywhere.
Another point that was drilled home was that the horses with the Mr Prospector mares in the vital positions just can't get the derby distance. There are a ton of these types around every year and I've never seen one win the derby. We had Alpha, El Padrino and Hansen with those kind of pedigrees and I had personally told Mr Hansen his horse was no derby horse and he said he was going to hold me to it after Hansen won. I don't guess I'll hear from him.
Another thing I did wrong was in the case of Bodemeister. He is very nicely bred and has shown a ton of talent but I got cute again and didn't think he could run another one like the ARK Derby race. Wrong! Sometimes one just has to take these horses at face value plus the fact he was working like a demon. I'm sure he will be retired right after the TC races because of the deal made with the new partners in him. He will be a very successful sire for the simple reason he has a pedigree that will match up with an abundance of mares out there.
In my opinion there is always way too much talk about the sires of these horses. If you read my post about derby sires you will get my point. What makes a sire have good luck in the breeding shed is when he has a pedigree that puts the mares in proper alignment in the pedigree of the foal. There are an awful lot of mares that will match up well with Bode so he should have no problems. On the other hand, I can't think of a sire that would produce something classic with the dam of Hansen. She could throw more like Hansen but I think that's as far as they will go.
Looking to the Preakness now and there might be a couple new faces in it. Also looking down the road to the Belmont where I think Dullahan may have a good shot. He can come a long way and still be motoring at the end but needs a little help on the front end.
Backstretch
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