Newsletter # 14 Recap

Newsletter # 14  Sat. 4/7/12


AQU  R9  Sat. 4/7/12  Wood Memorial

I'm really kind of excited about this race. I had mentioned in several places that Gemologist was the horse I liked best early on for the derby. He still needs to run first or second to have enough earnings to make the field on derby day otherwise he will point for the Preakness.

What has me excited is that if my prediction was right about this horse we may see some history made. If this horse should win the KY Derby and possibly the triple crown he could become the highest priced stallion in memory. The reason I say this is that, although he's 8 generations back, he could become the flag bearer for the Man O' War sire line. If he were, with all that he might sire, there could be a resurgence of that line that hasn't happened in a long time

I liked his pedigree right off with the cross of that line with the Nearco line mares. He should have no trouble running all day and he's a big, strong, sturdy looking horse. He has done everything right up to this point including 2 wins around 2 turns at Churchill. Champions usually go about their business, doing nothing wrong and staying healthy in the bargain. So far Gem fits the bill and I'm banking on him to go all the way. Of course, I've been wrong before, I think it was on a Tuesday in 1957. LOL

My Adonis is another that I liked early but he's been a little slow coming around. He had 6 races as a 2yr old but just now seems to be coming into his own. He does have speed enough to find position, although he's gotten caught up in pace duels in the past, and I think that Elvis may have finally figured out where to place him. He is another out cross with Northern Dancer mares and should handle distance if not pushed too hard early.

Alpha is one of 3 horses this year with a big pedigree influence from Mr Prospector mares. The other 2 are Hansen and Reveron although there may be something I missed along the way. There are however, a lot of horses with this type breeding this year but none that I think will make the derby beside these. The problem I have with horses bred along these lines is that they can be brilliant up to 1 1/16 and some to 9f but I can't recall a derby winner with a pedigree of this type. He may be one of those rare exceptions because his damsire is a son of Northern Dancer and 4 of the last 12 derby winners have had a son of ND as the damsire. At any rate, Alpha will probably be a contender in here but I don't think he is in a class with Gem but we may see a good battle for second.

These are the only ones in this race with my derby profile but that doesn't mean others can't be contenders at this distance.

1- Gemologist

2- My Adonis

3- Alpha

4- Tiger Walk.....good closer..draws JR and may get a minor piece.

For my bet I think I'll put Gem on top of the next 2 with all for the exotics.

Recap;

Very exciting race but I don't think it was as close as it appeared to be. Why do I say that? Gem was coming down the stretch with his ears pricked and as Gary Stevens said, "He's just playing!". He was looking around and not keeping his mind on the business at hand. JJ said he was looking around and not really running hard until he saw the other horse and then he dug in and it looked to me that he was starting to inch away at the finish. Ramon, on Alpha, confirmed this when he said he thought he had it but when Gem saw Alpha he got back into it and held him off. Another little point that many may have missed is that coming out of the gate Gem actually broke on top. This horse has a lot of speed but rates nicely so the jock will have a chance to avoid trouble and get a favorable position.

I had posted elsewhere way back in Jan. that this horse would win the Derby and I feel confident that he will. He has a pedigree that I love being an outcrossed horse and I think he can run all day. He has done everything right so far and that's how the great horses are. I think he is coming up to the Derby in a perfect form cycle and we haven't seen his best race yet.

As I have stated, I believe Alpha is a really nice horse up to 1 1/8 but I have doubts about him getting that other 1/8 in the Derby.

PS...Not that it paid very much but I did post my winning bet.


SA Derby:

This race is tough for me because of the form cycles. They seem to treat these horses like they were made of glass, very thin glass. I have a few with pedigrees I like but I have no idea how they will run considering how they are trained. I mean, 7-8 weeks between races? Are they a bunch of cripples?

I'm not in love with the pedigree of Creative Cause but I will have to go with him just because he's so steady. He may not win the KY Derby but it looks like he has an edge in experience and class against these. There are some others that could have run in this race but everyone is looking for an easy spot. As I've said before, the goal seems to be to just get to the big show whether the horse has a chance or not.

I like the pedigree of I'll Have Another and you know I had him in my picks last time when he won but 8 weeks is a long time between races. O'Neill was worried about him bouncing because he ran a good number last time but that number wouldn't have won the Derby. How can a horse improve from one race to another when they go back to square one after each race. I know he ran a good one last time after a lengthy lay off  but if he runs that way again it may not be good enough to win this.

Paynter has a beautiful pedigree that I really like but asking a horse, no matter how well he's bred, to go from a win in a maiden sprint to a grade 1 at 9f is a tall order. These horses would be better off in my opinion if they were raced into condition rather than trained up to the race every month or so. A horse gets more out of one race than it does from 5 works. I also think it's more of a risk to give him all those works than to give him a race. Oh, I forgot that the main object is to try to keep him undefeated. Bull Dinky!

Midnight Transfer is nicely bred and would be coming up to the Derby just right if he wins this but I don't think he makes the show without a win. It's going to take 300,000. or more to get in this year me thinks.

This race may actually be up for grabs but you have to call them as you see them. Liaison is not bad and is due to bounce back one of these days. Senor Rain has a Derby type pedigree but just hasn't run to it even though he's had enough chances.

1- Creative Cause

2- I'll Have Another

3- Paynter

4- Midnight Transfer

Recap;

I did out think myself in this race as I have done in the past. I basically handicap these races by pedigree but do include performance, not speed figures, in my handicapping. I sometimes make the mistake of trying to get cute and find some reason to put another horse over my pedigree pick. In this case I thought the long lay off might have I'll Have Another a little short but he wasn't so I should have kept him on top. The race was very close so if the bob had gone the other way I might have thought I'd done the right thing but I didn't.

I don't know how much it hurt him but Paynter got off to a bad start but as I said, he was taking a mighty big jump in class and distance. He didn't run badly though and I think he will be heard from in the future because he has a super pedigree.

Baffert's other horse got that lead and just didn't want to quit. Maybe the track was just speed favoring because nobody but the top 2 made any kind of run.


Illinios Derby:

This is a wide open race and it's like a last ditch stand with everybody trying to get enough earnings. I'm not too fond of him but Our Entourage looks like the one to beat. So far there have been 8 horses that came out of the Breeders Cup race to win one of these preps. That must have been a really key race so I can't buck that trend. This one also got into a murder-suicide pact with Souper Speedy on the front end in the Remsen and was only beaten a length by EL Padrino.

Done talking is another who ran well in the Remsen but really threw a clunker in the Gotham. It was his first start of the year after more than 3 months off so I'll give him a chance to make amends because he has a nice pedigree and Smith is a better trainer than that race shows. Post may really hinder him because he wants to come from well out of it.

The pedigree in here that I like the most is Arm Force but it's doubtful if he gets in the race. He was entered in the LA Derby and scratched. Julian isn't slated to ride either so I don't know what's up with him.

Currency Swap chased Gemologist in his last and comes right back. Probably the easiest spot he will find. He's a nice one but I think he may out of his element at the longer distances.

Pretension is nicely bred and should handle the distance. Comes out of the Gotham where he finished on even terms with Finnegan's Wake who went to the Southland and didn't show much so he will have to improve some.

Skyring and Saturday's Launch both have nice pedigrees and both have won their last. Sat. Launch has only had one dirt race and that was his first start. He has run second to Daddy Nose best who has won 2 preps in a row with his last being in the Southland on dirt. He also has a good race against Exothermic who is undefeated and was only beaten a nose by News Pending. Has a top notch trainer in McPeek who must think he can handle dirt. This is his first try in a graded race this year but I wouldn't be suprised to see him charge down the lane to win this at a huge price. In fact, I'm going to pick him on top and hope to be a whiz kid in this one.

1- Saturday's Launch

2- Our Entourage

3- Arm Force........if he gets in

4- Done Talking

5- Currency Swap

And a really long one for the exotics, Skyring.

I am wondering how Julian is going to make up his mind as to who to ride in the big one. I guess he will stick with Union Rags but he's in a nice spot for a ride.

Recap;

This is the race where I really made a mistake going against my pedigree handicapping. I thought all along that the pedigrees of Currency Swap and Our Entourage said they were distance challenged and they were. I should have dismissed them as I usually do but the fact that there wasn't really many horses in here that had proved much swayed me.

Done Talking is a horse that I had liked early on and had picked him in his last where he didn't run a lick. This may be one of those cases where the jock made the difference. Sheldon had won with this horse and then 2 different jocks were employed in his next races. A return to the boy who had won with him and bingo! Something like Drosslemeyer and Mike Smith. You know the old saying, "Don't fix what ain't broke". At any rate, I like his pedigree although I'm not sure if he can handle the likes of Gem and Rags.

Arm Force has a super nice pedigree and they skipped the LA Derby for this but didn't draw in and was scratched. He may try to jump into one of the remaining preps.

Saturday's Launch, the longshot I put on top, had some questions going to dirt for the first time but ran a good race. He was bumped around quite a bit and was checked coming into the stretch and was only beaten a neck for third less than 3 lengths from the winner so I don't think I really made a bad choice as racing luck played a big part.

I think they learned something about Hakama in that he was usually up front in his races but because of bumping at the start was knocked back but made a great run to get third just edging my top choice.

I wasn't impressed with Morgan's G.s pedigree but hed had a couple nice races and caught a lot of money indicating he was live in this race.

All told, I think this was a rough run race and a few had bad trips. This happens with big fields and this one had 14 runners so imagine what can happen with 20 in the Derby.

Not a bad weekend of picks and we only have a few to go till the big one. The ARK Derby next week should be a really good one and there may be a real sleeper or 2 in it.

Backstretch